14 thoughts on “Disposition of Forces in Kherson Oblast, 28 Nov 2022

  1. Ivan

    This is like barely covering the retreat to the east bank of the Dnipro river. It looks like the Russian military pros are aware of weaknesses that have not been recognized in the general public. We are already waiting for the next precision munition attack on civilian infrastructure. Anything less than 60 missiles or later than Saturday would suggest that this will be another failed strategy as the west is gearing up to provide repair capabilities at a faster rate than Russia can destroy.

    1. Anonymous

      Putin bombing will have as much impact as us bombing in Vietnam

      the opinion of participants outside the pentagon of the WW II strategic bombing study watered down the inference that bombing Germany made a big difference

      in Kiev it is less strategic bc Kiev has nothing but bodies to give to the war

    1. pgl

      Do you have a point little troll? Then make it. To data there are 677 comments. Sorry but I am not going to read a bunch of garbage who have no clue what a real war looks like. And I’m certainly not going to pay a lick of attention from a Chicken Hawk hiding in his basement too afraid to even articulate a real position.

    2. Macroduck

      Well, that’s not a question of “should” in a rules sense. Under any reasonable set of rules they hit you, you hit them back – no question.

      But the complex issue of winning and losing is the “should” that applies here. Ukraine has to win, by some important definition of “win”. Ukraine’s allies also have to win. The two definitions have to overlap. And Russia has nukes.

      It may be useful to have Rinkevics raise the possibility, but not be a good idea to carry through – with considerable uncertainty around both.

  2. pgl

    Different topic but timely. Kevin Drum lays out some of the issues that are at the heart of the potential rail worker strike:


    Let me highlight the real pay issue:

    First off, the railroad carriers have agreed to a 24% wage increase over five years (from 2020 to 2024). That sounds pretty good, but I will bore you as usual with my admonition that you should always account for inflation … The solid line is actual inflation. The dashed line is an estimate of future inflation from the Congressional Budget Office. It amounts to 21% over the life of the contract, which means workers are getting a real increase of 3%.

    I would hope someone could take his graph back to say 2000 as I sort of recall someone nothing that real pay in this sector was a lot lower in 2020 that it was say back in 2000.

  3. pgl


    Flanked by other top Republicans, the GOP’s Senate leader opened his weekly news conference by saying: “First, let me just say that there is no room in the Republican Party for antisemitism or white supremacy. And anyone meeting with people advocating that point of view, in my judgment, are highly unlikely to ever be elected president of the United States.”

    Nice sentiment I guess but wait a second. Trump has always been both antisemitic and a white supremist. And he was elected President thanks to Republicans like McConnell and his little crew there.

  4. pgl

    Hershel Walker – lying carpet bagger:


    Walker has gotten himself into some hot water after he received a $1,500 tax credit on a home outside Dallas, Texas, intended only for primary residences, leading to questions about whether he lied about his residency to get on the Georgia ballot. And new evidence suggests that might be the case. Herschel Walker claims to have lived in Georgia for 17 years. However, according to documents obtained by The Daily Beast, the home he claims to be his official address isn’t even owned by him – it’s solely owned by his wife, Julie Blanchard – and it was rented out to someone else in both 2020 and 2021, before Walker announced his senate campaign.

  5. pgl

    I support the Iranians protesting for the rights of women. And I cheered for Team USA yesterday. But in a way this saddens me:


    Usually when a team gets knocked out of an international tournament like the soccer World Cup, the nation is united in grief, pride in their performance or a mixture of both. After Iran’s loss to the United States on Tuesday, however, many Iranians cheered their players’ failure, saying they represented the repressive theocratic regime rather than the people it violently oppresses. On Tuesday, those criticizing the team made their voices heard: This was the Islamic Republic’s loss, not Iran’s. Horn-honking cars flooded the streets of Tehran and other cities, according to footage posted on social media. In one of the videos, which was posted after the match, the man filming said those honking their horns on the capital’s Pirouzi Street were expressing “the joy of the people due to the loss.”

    The players on their football team were playing for the citizens of Iran and not this disgusting government. These players played their hearts out and almost got to the Knock Out rounds. And now these players have to return home and face more garbage from this disgusting government. Yes this government is an insult to the world’s favorite sport, which these players excel at.

  6. Macroduck

    Speaking of Turkey – we were, weren’t we?* – every day is a fun day in Turkey-NATO relations, and the last few are no exception.

    Skandi accession talks are finally making progress:


    Meanwhile, the U.S. and Turkey are dancing close to the edge in Syria:


    Useful background on Turkey’s threat to invade Syria from one of the best journalistic organizations going:


    Whatever else one may think of Erdogan, he’s got this soft/hard regional power thing down to an art.

    *Any broad discussion of Russia’s war on Ukraine involves Turkey, Iran, etc.

  7. Macroduck

    International affairs think tanks are grinning up tracking efforts for Chinese protests. So far, estimates don’t match very well, bit they offer a bracket of sorts:

    “China Dissent Monitor, run by U.S. government-funded Freedom House, estimated at least 27 demonstrations took place across China from Saturday to Monday. Australia’s ASPI think tank estimated 43 protests in 22 cities.”

    Here’s a link:


    ASPI tweets its monitor results, but a quick search didn’t produce a link.

    1. Macroduck

      In estimating, the likely range should lie on either side of the central estimate. In counting instances of something, it’s more likely that the number counted represents a lower limit. I called what Freedom House and ASPI are doing “estimates” but they are apparently tallies. They maybe using different definitions, but in any case, 27 and 42 are both probably lower than the actual.

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