2022Q3 2nd Release, Alternative Measures of Activity, and a Recession of 2022H1?

Here’s GDP, GDO, and GDP+ through 2022Q3, and monthly indicators through 2022M10. I (still) don’t see a recession in 2022H1.

Figure 1: GDP (black), GDO (tan), and GDP+ (teal), all in bn.Ch.2012$, in logs, 2019Q4=0. GDP+ index calculated by cumulating q/q growth rates from 2018Q2. Hypothesized 2022H1 peak-to-trough recession dates shaded lilac. Source: BEA 2022Q3 2nd release, Philadelphia Fed (11/30/2022), and author’s calculations.

Note that GDO exhibits a smaller decline in GDP for Q1 and Q2 than GDP. GDP+ (discussed here) exhibits positive growth throughout — although at a slower pace (remembering that since the series are shown in log terms, a flatter slope denotes slower growth rate). Keep in mind that GDP is likely to be revised over and over again (see here).

What about monthly indicators, as compared to vehicle miles traveled which has been posited as an indicator of recession? Some are shown below (conventional ones followed by NBER BCDC shown here).

Figure 2: GDP+ (blue bar), coincident index (teal), aggregate weekly hours adjusted to preliminary benchmark revision (dark red), monthly GDP from IHS Markit (pink), and vehicle miles traveled, s.a. (orange), all normalized to 2021M11=0. GDP+ index calculated by cumulating q/q growth rates from 2018Q2. Hypothesized 2022H1 recession dates shaded lilac. Source: Philadelphia Fed (11/30/2022), Philadelphia Fed (11/23/2022), BLS, BLS preliminary benchmark revision, IHS Markit (11/1/2022), BTS via FRED, and author’s calculations.

Note that while vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as reported is below 2021M11 levels, given the times we live in, I’m not sure VMT is a reliable indicator of recession, if it ever was (see this post). In contrast, the other indicators — GDP+, Philly Fed coincident index, or aggregate hours — show little evidence of a recession occuring in 2022H1.


29 thoughts on “2022Q3 2nd Release, Alternative Measures of Activity, and a Recession of 2022H1?

  1. pgl

    “I’m not sure VMT is a reliable indicator of recession”

    But but but Princeton Stevie told us VMT is the only reliable indicator. I suspect he told us why on his blog which NO ONE bothers to read.

  2. Macroduck

    Commenters here sometime taimedry to change the subject or draw false equivalences. Take, for instance, JohnH’s recent insistence that we shift our focus from Russia’s murderous attack on Ukraine and Ukraine kicking Russia’s backside on the battlefield. Johnny wants us to think the EU and U.S. are at each other’s throats over trade. That an effort to change the subject BY drawing a false equivalence, which is pretty remarkable.

    So, here’s a little background. From the Wikipedia page entitled “List of WTO dispute settlement cases”:

    “As of July 2016, there have been 507 such cases.”


    The WTO has been around since 1995. That’s about 24 WTO dispute settlement cases a year between 1995 and 2016. And whatever it is that Johnny wants us to believe has the U.S. and Europe ready to quit and go home hasn’t even reached the level of a formal complaint, much less a WTO dispute settlement case.

    Meanwhile, how many wars have been fought in Europe since 1995? Johnny? Twenty-four a year? So maybe, just maybe, trade spats are run-of-the-mill sorts of things and wars are important and to be condemned and taken seriously.

    Johnny, when the grown-ups are talking, you should hush up and listen. And no pretending trade irritation is the equivalent of war.

    1. pgl

      There was this fellow named JohnH over at EconomistView who kept blasting Obama for not using the Biden trade war tactics. But now that a Democratic White House is employing the industrial policies this JohnH used to demand – our JohnH has changed his tune entirely. Jonny boy definitely has malleable opinions.

        1. pgl

          You have a well known habit of denying what you have said in the past. As in your attempt to deny you ever claimed that real wages rose under Cameron. How did that work out for you little Jonny boy?

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Macron is visiting White House today where there will be the first state dinner since before the pandemic. Issue of European and French unhappiness over subsidies in the IRA is on the agenda of matters to discuss, but fairly far down the list. Agreement on what to do about the Russian invasion of Ukraine is at the top of the list, with in fact Macron moving towards a harder line against Putin because of his relentless bombing of energy infrastructure in Ukraine.

      JohnH is just completely out of it, as usual.

    3. JohnH

      Even The NY Times had a piece today on the tensions: “Since his arrival in Washington on Wednesday, Mr. Macron has made clear his displeasure over Mr. Biden’s domestic policies, including a separate bill to boost U.S. semiconductor manufacturing known as the CHIPS Act. The French president warned in a speech at the French embassy on Wednesday evening and during an interview on ABC’s “Good Morning America” that the laws could hamper relations between the U.S. and Europe and freeze multinational investment on both continents.”

      Macron may be amenable to kissing Biden’s ring. But it does remind me of the French refusing to join the “coalition of the willing” in 2003, reportedly because the US had frozen France out of promised oil contracts after the Gulf War. Remember those Freedom Fries?

      And, presumably, Macron may yet be somewhat answerable to the electorate, who are likely chafing under the burden of inflation, loss of purchasing power, and a possible recession. That may make it more difficult for Macron to do Biden’s bidding, at least overtly.

      1. pgl

        Trade disputes are not the same thing as war crimes. I guess you decided to duck the latest from Macroduck.

      2. pgl

        “But it does remind me of the French refusing to join the “coalition of the willing” in 2003, reportedly because the US had frozen France out of promised oil contracts after the Gulf War.”

        A trade war on the same scale as an actual invasion of another nation? Yea – you are still trying to justify Putin’s war crimes by bringing up Bush43’s horrific decision a generation ago. JohnH – proud to support outright genocide. BTW – the claim the French took a noble stand over “oil contracts” is a very insulting lie. But that is what Putin’s little poodle gets paid to do.

      3. pgl

        JohnH loves to peddle an outright lie that the 2003 invasion of Iraq was all about the West taking over Iraqi oil. It took me 2 seconds to find this:


        ERBIL, Iraq (Reuters) – Iraqi Oil Minister Jabar al-Luaibi has issued a decree transferring the ownership of nine state-owned oil companies, including state oil marketer SOMO, from the oil ministry to the newly-formed National Oil Company which he also heads, a ministry spokesman said on Thursday. Luaibi took the decision in his capacity as National Oil Company chief, not minister, according to a statement by spokesman Asim Jihad. The decision will be “followed by others within the same framework,” Jihad said. The Iraqi government had last week named Luaibi as head of the new National Oil Company, which is to serve as an umbrella organization for state oil firms. The positions of company chief and minister are not related, but Luaibi currently holds both. Parliament voted in March to establish the company, which is meant to manage Iraq’s upstream operations, freeing up the ministry to set plans and strategies for developing the sector. The nine companies included in Thursday’s decision are SOMO, the Iraqi Oil Exploration Company, the Iraqi Drilling Company, the North Oil Company, the Midland Oil Company, Basra Oil Company, Dhi Qar Oil Company, Maysan Oil Company and the Iraqi Oil Tankers Company.

        Not Exxon or Chevron etc. Look – JohnH never gets a single thing right. Not one. Now is he really this incompetent? Or is it he is trying his best to misinform on every topic possible. If so – he is doing a great job.

        1. pgl

          This is really funny. When JohnH made the absurd claims that the French did not support the 2003 invasion of Iraq, it was because the French did not get to participate in the American take over of Iraqi oil. Except the roles played by US oil in the redevelopment of Iraqi oil was incredibly limited and what little interest Exxon had has already been divested. JohnH could not be bothered to check but I did. Now Total Energy – French company – landed this Iraqi deal last year.


          Seriously – JohnH may be the best ever at getting EVERYTHING wrong. Quite the talent!

          1. JohnH

            The first Gulf War liberated Kuwait. The oil concessions the US had promised France were in Kuwait.

            As a result of US perfidy, France declined to join the “coalition of the willing.”

            It remains to be seen how Europe reacts to the US profiteering while Europeans suffer as a result of sanctions.

            BTW…guess who’s buying record amounts of Russian LNG? And at prices far exceeding gas delivered by pipeline!!! Oh, the irony!

            Gotta love that free market!!!

          2. pgl

            The first Gulf War liberated Kuwait. The oil concessions the US had promised France were in Kuwait. As a result of US perfidy, France declined to join the “coalition of the willing.”

            Your original (dishonest) comment referred to the 2003 war not the 1991 war. The coalition of the willing was in reference to the 2003 war. Way to change the topic but dude – everyone here gets what a lying little troll you are.

          3. pgl

            Did JohnH even read the first sentence of his Bloomberg link?

            The European Union has slashed its dependence on Russian energy this year, banning coal imports and readying an oil embargo too. But one product is booming, and is unlikely to face an EU boycott anytime soon.

            Huh – EU’s dependence on Russian oil solved. And with the deal with Qatar, the LNG issue is being worked on. Come on Jonny – the rest of us read your links. Maybe you should do so before embarrassing yourself as usual.

          4. pgl

            JohnH has changed his lie to the West owns Kuwaiti oil because of that 1991 invasion (change of tune from his lie about Iraqi oil). Two seconds on the Google:


            Kuwait is a major oil supplier and a member of the OPEC consortium. Oil accounts for nearly half of Kuwait’s GDP, around 95% of exports, and approximately 90% of government export revenue. Kuwait holds approximately 7% of global oil reserves and has a current production capacity of about 3.15 million barrels per day. The country’s oil sector is run by the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), a state-owned enterprise. KPC has several companies operating beneath it which are collectively known as the “K companies”. Upstream operations are primarily done by Kuwait Oil Company. Downstream operations are done by Kuwait National Petroleum Company . The Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) is the largest company by revenue and responsible for oil production.

            Look Jonny boy – we all have figured out you LIE about everything. But to be so incredibly transparent in your dishonesty? Come on dude – your mommy has asked you to stop embarrassing her this way.

          5. pgl

            ‘As a result of US perfidy, France declined to join the “coalition of the willing.”’ = JohnH

            Perfidy: deceitfulness; untrustworthiness

            Jonny boy loves these fancy terms. Of course he is flat out lying about this issue. So I guess the term perfidy perfectly describes each and every one of JohnH’s comments.

            Hey Jonny boy – I am bookmarking this term for your future dishonest comments. Thanks!

          6. JohnH

            This is so tedious…pgl just throws BS up against the wall to see what will stick. My original comment referred to US perfidy in freezing France out of oil contracts after the Gulf War.

            The Gulf War was 1990-1991. Check it out yourself. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War

            France was still smarting more than a decade later. It pays not to be cavalier with your allies…

          7. Barkley Rosser


            Sorry, but pgl has your behind pretty much nailed on this one. You are just outright lying (again!) on the matter of France “smarting” a decade after the (first) Gulf war over lost contracts. There were no contracts out of the first Gulf war for US oil companies, certainly not in Kuwait. France was cut out of nothing.

            In the runup to the 2003 war there were weird quasi-negotiations where Cheney in particular was trying to deal with the French and the Russians over a supposed post-Saddam distribution of oil interests, with Cheney assuming US oil companies would be put in charge. But as pgl accurately ootes, that never happened, and indeed Russian and Chinese oil companies have had much more action in Iraw than US ones. The claim that US oil companies even supported the war in Iraq have long been overblown. This matter was a relatively trivial part of Chirac’s decision not to support the war effort.

            And, again, while Macron is unhappy about protectionist elements of the IRA, this has not inclined him to support Putin in his war crimes. If anything, with this visit Macron is doubleing down on supporting Ukraine against Russia. Putin has really blown it with this campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure, just increasing the determination of the Ukrainians to resist his criminal invasion as well as the wiliingness of the rest of the world, including notably France, to support the Ukrainians.

            You are seriously out of it with this whole line of argument.

          8. pgl

            Barkley Rosser
            December 2, 2022 at 11:58 pm

            Thank you for this breath of honesty and intelligence. I spent part of this morning wasting my time reading all sorts of BS under the title blood for oil trying to figure out WTF JohnH had on the French. None of what he wrote has an ounce of support.

            I did discover one person talking about how Total (French) had landed a deal with the Iraqi government as that person’s “explanation” for the French telling Bush43 – which is just the opposite of the made up garbage from JohnH. This same person noted Lukoil (Russia) made a similar deal in Iraq during 2002.

            I guess Putin told JohnH never to mention it is Putin who was mentioned in this way by the Blood for Oil crowd. Then again one of the reasons Putin squeezed Crimea had to do with offshore oil discoveries.

            So it is the Russians not the French that are motivated by “Blood for Oil”. Funny JohnH never notes that one. Then again Kremlin pet poodles might be killed if they told the truth.

      4. pgl

        December 2, 2022 at 3:55 pm
        This is so tedious…pgl just throws BS up against the wall to see what will stick. My original comment referred to US perfidy in freezing France out of oil contracts after the Gulf War.

        The Gulf War was 1990-1991. Check it out yourself. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War

        Gee Wikipedia never mentioned this alleged oil contract rip off. Nor has anything else JohnH mentioned. Yea – it is tedious how many times this worthless troll repeats his stupid lies.

    4. pgl

      It is interesting that this was the first on the list:

      Canada–Australia salmon trade dispute

      The White House hosted a state dinner for Macron last night where a lot of Maine lobsters were consumed along with California (not French) wine. Now my dinner tonight will salmon from Chile and not lobster but I will likely enjoy one of California’s better wines. So the French can complain that I’m not buying their overpriced wine.

    5. pgl

      Your link is a treasure trover!

      This washing machine issue was a hot topic a while back:

      The U.S International Trade Commission ruled 6–0 in favor of Whirlpool, finding that the U.S washing machine industry was threatened by imports of residential washers from South Korea. Also, the commission stated South Korean producers, Daewoo, LG, and Samsung were dumping washing machines far below their market value. Investigation into the matter led to the finding that LG and Samsung’s market sales in the United States were found significantly different and the differences were not taken into account using the average-to-average method.A countervailing duty of over 72 percent was set for Daewoo, while the two other South Korean companies were given much smaller duties of below two percent. LG Electronics Inc. faced a dumping margin of 13.02, while Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. received a 9.29 percent dumping duty rate. Both LG and Samsung have since challenged Commerce’s findings in the U.S. Court of International Trade, using the argument that the ITC improperly used the zeroing method to calculate dumping margins.

      Not only is Whirlpool using trade protection to limit competition from South Korea, the Bush43 Administration allowed the anticompetitive merger of Whirlpool and Maytag. As I recall, JohnH sort of dismissed all of this even after we provided this Know Nothing with a solid economic analysis discussing the anti-competitive aspects of that merger. For a troll who complains a lot about the government not taking competition seriously, his refusal to condemn what Whirlpool gets away with is rather odd.

    6. pgl

      Just one more:

      The Canada–U.S. softwood lumber dispute is one of the largest and most enduring trade disputes between both nations. This conflict arose in 1982 and its effects are still seen today. British Columbia, the major Canadian exporter of softwood lumber to the United States, was most affected, reporting losses of 9,494 direct and indirect jobs between 2004 and 2009.

      JohnH fancied himself an expert on lumber when its price temporarily spiked. Of course his comments on this market were his usual really dumb claims. Something tells me that this Know Nothing has never acknowledged the role of this heavily analyzed trade dispute.

  3. ltr


    November 30, 2022

    Shenzhou-15, Shenzhou-14 crews meet at China Space Station

    China’s newly completed three-module space station witnessed a historic moment on Wednesday when the Shenzhou-14 crew on board welcomed three more taikonauts of the Shenzhou-15 mission.

    At 7:33 a.m. (Beijing Time), the Shenzhou-14 taikonauts opened the door of their “space home,” welcoming the Shenzhou-15 crewmates. The six then took a group photo to record the unprecedented moment in the history of China’s space mission.

    The space reunion kicked off the first in-orbit crew rotation at the China Space Station (CSS). The six astronauts will live and work together for about five days to complete their tasks and handover, according to the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA).

    The Shenzhou-15 crewed spaceship, launched on Tuesday night, docked with the front port of Tianhe core module at 5:42 a.m. (Beijing Time) on Wednesday, said the CMSA.

    Six taikonauts, one dream

    The Shenzhou-15 mission is the sixth flight mission of China’s manned spaceflight program this year and the last one in the construction phase of the CSS, recording the final goal of China’s “three-step” human space program initiated 30 years ago.

    China has 39 astronauts in its first, second and third generations, while some taikonauts trained for decades without entering a real mission.

    The Shenzhou-14 and Shenzhou-15 crews also include numerous astronauts who’ve been preparing for their first space mission for decades.

    Shenzhou-15 commander Fei Junlong is returning to space after his Shenzhou-6 mission 17 years ago and operator Deng Qingming is making his space debut after a wait of 25 years. Operators Cai Xuzhe (Shenzhou-14) and Zhang Lu (Shenzhou-15) waited for their first space flights for 12 years.

    “For me, I can spend my whole life getting prepared silently, but I will never allow myself to be unprepared when the task comes by,” said Deng.

    “No matter how old I am, I am needed by the nation. I feel happy today.” …

  4. pgl


    “So clearly political forces hijack professional sports as a way to brainwash the young men who watch professional sports,” he said. “That’s, of course, the entire point of it. It’s strategic. But why does nobody push back?”

    This is Tucker Carlson warning fans of the National Hockey League that watching their games will turn you into a Marxist or something like that.

    Earlier in the segment, Carlson noted that the NHL has one of the most conservative fanbases of all major American professional sports, “so it’s a little weird … that the NHL has decided to push woke propaganda on its fans.” By “woke propaganda,” he was referring to the league’s efforts to increase diversity among its employees and fans. The NHL released results earlier this year of its first internal demographic study of its staff and 32 teams. Unsurprisingly, the report found that its workforce was made up overwhelmingly of white men: Its workforce is 83.6% white and 62% male. On the ice, more than 90% of players and nearly all coaches and officials are white. The league, eager to diversify its fanbase and increase its audience, has said the report will serve as a baseline so they can develop strategies to improve representation internally. Minority players have long called out systemic racism issues and complained that the league has been slow to adapt.

    OK – so one or two of those players in the game must be blacks and Tucker is so afraid that they were allowed to be on one of the teams. For Tucker – the only real American is a white guy. Can you imagine this girlie man in an NFL or NBA locker room? He would likely have a heart attack.

  5. Macroduck

    China set to loosen COVID curbs after week of protests

    China to allow home quarantine, cut mass testing – sources
    Top official says severity of virus weakening
    Shift comes after string of demonstrations
    Biggest show of public defiance in years


    Top officials are lying, of course. Over any meaningful timescale, Covid is worsening in China, and pretty much around the northern hemisphere. Protest has worked. Now what?

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