By simple addition of bets on 50 seats or less for Republicans — at 1030am Eastern Time, from PredictIt:
Source: PedictIt, accessed 11/9/2022 at 10:30am Eastern.
Note also the probability of Republican House, Democratic Senate is at 62%.
By simple addition of bets on 50 seats or less for Republicans — at 1030am Eastern Time, from PredictIt:
Source: PedictIt, accessed 11/9/2022 at 10:30am Eastern.
Note also the probability of Republican House, Democratic Senate is at 62%.
Is there a market on the chances that Hershel Walker will be told to forgot about the Senate?
It’s not uncommon for jobs to be offered in exchange for dropping out of a political race or to save Republicans from having their “family values”/”sanctity of life” fig leaf yanked away by Herschel. Think of Chris Christie’s fealty to donald trump, and Mitt Romney’s phony self-righteousness towards donald trump when Romney didn’t get the Secretary of State job he sucked donald trump’s toes for at the restaurant meeting.
A semi-quiet job offer to Herschel would not surprise me at all, the only doubt being if Herschel would be smart enough to take it (i.e. know he has already lost the run-off). Perhaps Herschel could be convinced to take a well-salaried job as an advocate for condoms usage.
It is actually amazing that what by all standard political logic was supposed to be an overwhelming victory for GOP, is not.
Vi have a low approval rating Dem president in his midterm election, with the widespread perception of a bad economy and the reality of substantially higher price increases than before he took office. This is all supposed to signal large gains for GOP.
It will be interesting to see why that didn’t happen. Who voted for Dems or against GOPs – and why?
The only winner was Big Money—merchants of Death, Banksters, Big Energy, Big Ag, Big Pharma, Big Tech, and assorted, sordid billionaires. The only choice most everywhere was between two unlikeable stooges.
Now the media will distract us with 2024. The Democratic stable is basically empty (the senescent, corrupt octogenarians made sure no one threatened their malfeasance.)
I hear Boris Johnson and Liz Truss are looking for jobs. Maybe Democrats can find a way around the Constitution and stand them…if they’re not too young! On the Republican there are Trump and DeSantis…ideal Big Money opponents to Tory clowns.
You do know your hero David Cameron is a Tory – don’t you? Oh yea – you were the moron that told us his fiscal austerity led to higher UK real wages EVEN THOUGH there are all sorts of analysis that real wages plummeted.
Of course I expect you to deny this now. It is what you do.
So now we’re back to you’re Cameron BS from 2015, when I pointed out that real wages actually rose in the UK at a time when economists were busy fear mongering about deflation hurting workers! And, no, it was NOT an endorsement for Cameron, a total LIE from pgl.
“when I pointed out that real wages actually rose in the UK at a time when economists were busy fear mongering about deflation hurting workers!”
So you finally admit to making this claim. When I provided studies that showed UK real wages FELL A LOT during this period – you tried to deny you ever made the false claim you now acknowledge? OK!
Even Faux News knows AOC and her fellow squad members won big time.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/aoc-other-squad-members-win-landslide-victories-2022-elections
I guess AOC is too OLD for Johnny boy. Or maybe she is just another Wall Street banker type. Yea Johnny boy is that stupid.
Johnny, the grown-ups are talking.
Johnny boy reads a comment about crime in NYC and he goes off about real wages? Seriously – even Russian bots are smarter than this troll.
Well I voted against Lee Zeldin because he was an election denier, because he supports guns in Manhattan, and because he spread fear and hate with his lies. Now I would be for reducing crime here but this clown had no tangible plans to do so. That is one local version of a nation wide theme – MAGA Republicans want our votes because they can spread fear, hate, and false promises. No thank you.
Democrats don’t do their share of fear mongering? “ “We can’t just be running against Republicans as the boogeyman,” said Sochie Nnaemeka, state director for the New York Working Families Party, a progressive third party that backed Hochul. “Democrats have to put forward an affirmative vision and, especially in moments of heightened crisis, speak to where voters are. Speak to economic issues. Speak to an ability for people to make ends meet.”
https://gothamist.com/news/kathy-hochul-wins-in-ny-but-progressives-hope-democrats-learned-a-lesson
Say what? Speak to economic issues? Speak to an ability for people to make ends meet? Why would Democrats do that? Faux progressives like pgl even think that it’s great that real wages are falling back to 2019 levels amidst a growing economy with a tight labor market…exactly a time when real wages should be growing. But pgl thinks that wages being down to 2019 levels somehow spells success!!!
Hey troll. I live in NYC. I had to endure the BS from Zeldin while Hochul was actually doing something about crime here. You know nothing about this at all so your little opinion is not welcomed. Eff off troll.
Not taking sides here, just presenting information pertinent to the dialogue.
https://theintercept.com/2022/11/09/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-new-york-state-democratic-party-midterms/
Moses Herzog
November 10, 2022 at 8:18 am
Thanks for the link to what AOC has rightfully said. Republicans got a sweep in Long Island (never mind I have only been there twice and do not want to go again). How much of this was the Dems overreaching on gerrymandering only to be slapped down by the courts (which they do not do when it is GOP gerrymandering) and how much was this as AOC noted Hochul having to remind everyone that she is tough on crime while Zeldin just shouts a lot.
Democrats need to get a progressive message out but it seems the stupid press keeps asking questions written by those who work for Faux News.
Hey, Moses!
Not to disagree with Ocasio-Cortez, not at all, but Hochul was running as a previously un-elected governor. Kinda like Gerald Ford, and you know how that went. That may have limited her ability to carry other Democrats down ticket. O-C is not just an elected New York Democrat. She also unseated an ossified New York Democrat and is still surrounded by similar fossils. So O-C may be thinking more about issues and grass roots stuff. Hochul’s inherent weakness may not weigh in O-C’s thinking as much as, for instance, Hochul’s late decision to build a ground game. Her terrible, stupid, who’d-have-believed-it failure to start with a ground game WHEN SHE HADN’T BEEN ELECTED TO HER CURRENT OFFICE!!! A GROUND GAME LIFTS THE WHOLE TICKET!
‘Scuse me. I needed to clear my throat… So, there were some unusual problems to overcome. But as I mentioned, I don’t disagree with Ocasio-Cortez.
Perhaps people have decided that we have spent enough time in Crazytown and it might be a good idea to move on.
I hope so. Here is my fear – the GOP gets a slight majority in the House so McCarthy tries to make a move on the Speakership. And the crazy right wingers like Marjorie Taylor Greene without their support until Kevin goes full MAGA.
Now my hope – as remote as it might be – is that Pelosi goes into talks with the less zany moderate Republicans and asked them to switch parties.
That’s what Tim Ryan, Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger and a few others have been saying. But they forgot that Crazytown is now Republicans’ brand.
Feed the crazies or be eaten by the crazies, that’s what Kevin McCarthy says. And don’t you ask Kari Lake to act like an adult when she is the LOSER in a democratic election. It’s Lake’s rightful prerogative that~~when she loses~~the elections are fixed. That’s not childlike, that’s her prerogative. It’s her example to American girls on how to be a strong woman~~when/if you lose~~shed tears into your shirtsleeve that “Life’s unfair!!!!”. #MeLose
OK – Warnock got more votes than Walker so what caused this to go to a runoff? A little creep named Chase Oliver:
https://thenewsgod.com/georgia-libertarian-senate-nominee-would-be-glad-to-force-runoff-wants-to-present-the-third-option-for-voters/#:~:text=Chase%20Oliver%2C%20a%20Libertarian%20running%20as%20a%20Libertarian,Georgia%2C%20candidates%20must%20earn%2050%25%20plus%20one%20vote.
‘Chase Oliver, a Libertarian running as a Libertarian in Georgia for the seat currently held by Democrat Raphael Warnock, said he would be “glad” to force a runoff since it would indicate that voters are dissatisfied with both Democrats and Republicans. To win outright in Georgia, candidates must earn 50% plus one vote. According to recent polls, Oliver has roughly 4% of the vote.’
The little creep only got 2% of the vote. But thanks to this third party LOSER, we are going to have to deal with insulting disaster named Hershel Walker for another 4 weeks.
@ pgl
Oh come on, aren’t you dying to hear one of Herschel’s “horny cow jumps the fence” Republican morality fables?? Remember, “it’s for the children”, and the “sanctity of life”, unless they’re YOUR OWN bastard children in which case…… “Here’s some money, go have the baby killed” [ Herschel pats them on the head patronizingly ] “That’s a good little pin-cushion, remember Herschel loves you”.
Hershel was always good for laughs. Of course we are laughing AT him not with him.
Warnock has been through this before – a run-off, with no top-of-ticket race to help his opponent, no also-ran third-party senate candidate to drain votes. I recall that went pretty well.
Warnock has more class, dignity, and intelligence in his left pinky finger than all of Herschel and his campaign staff combined. I think for any person, waiting to get the Senate seat you know is yours would be agonizing. But do you get the feeling Warnock is just kind of grinning to himself in his internal voice going “I can wait”??
There are some decent people living in Georgia. Everyone of them need to get out and vote like they did in the 2020 recount. Herchel is an embarrassment to everyone in this state including Hershel’s own kids.
BTW did you see how the DONALD is blaming Melania for the Dr. Oz’s disaster. She needs to divorce him.
I hadn’t seen it but I heard someone mention it. Another example of how the Orange Creature is mentally/emotionally unbalanced. I’m still trying to recalibrate after getting my hopes too high Boebert was going to lose. They know how to get my hopes up and then crush me hours later. Never mind a Boebert loss making my whole week feel good, I still would have been flying high in December if that c___ had lost.
What is wrong with people in Colorado?? Doesn’t their body naturally adjust over time to the mountain air with less oxygen or is it a cumulative thing that makes them into brain oxygen starved idiots??
OK – thanks to Moses’s excellent reporting it seems we may have two lesbian governors, which is a good thing.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/oregon-governor-nominee-tina-kotek-200024474.html
Now Chase Oliver is gay which is cool as he claims we should have loving inclusion leaders. But here’s the thing. Rev. Warnock prays to a loving inclusive God whereas Hershel Walker prays to the Lord Donald Trump who would likely execute gays and lesbians if he could.
libertarians and goat ropers,
both need our sympathy!
the parts of georgia ‘cumse sherman failed burn…..
Hey troll. A young black man is out for his daily run. Get your guns and chase him down in your pickup truck.
too old to run down anyone….
why you would suspect i would use a gun when a k-bar is so much more personal!
Aubrey’s killers were old turds too. I sense they are your heroes.
What?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/health/opioid-addiction-treatment-racial-disparities.html
November 9, 2022
Medication Treatment for Addiction Is Shorter for Black and Hispanic Patients, Study Finds
The analysis of 15 years of prescription data showed that the racial disparities are widening.
By Emily Baumgaertner
Researchers have long known that racial and ethnic minorities are less likely to be prescribed lifesaving addiction treatment options than white people.
But even when Black and Hispanic patients start a prescription for buprenorphine — the most popular medication to help those in recovery fight cravings — the typical duration of their treatment is shorter than that of white patients, according to a new data analysis * published Wednesday in JAMA Psychiatry.
The analysis, which sorted through 15 years of prescription data by race and ethnicity, also revealed that the percentage of minority patients who remained on buprenorphine for more than 180 days — the minimum recommended duration — was significantly below that of white patients.
Racial and ethnic gaps in length of treatment have consistently widened, particularly in recent years, the researchers said. The divide reflects structural barriers — such as inconsistent employment or medical care — some groups face even after they begin working toward recovery.
* https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/2798512
Does it matter, so far as Federal Reserve regulatory policy goes, that the price of Bitcoin has fallen by about 65% so far this year? I have no idea, but think this possibility should have been a publicly expressed concern of the Fed or Treasury quite a while ago.
RonJon expected to win reelection barely:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ron-johnson-projected-to-win-reelection-defeat-mandela-barnes-in-wisconsin/ar-AA13VsrW?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=b5c88db9cabe447da2358e459004c117
A missed opportunity.
It is extremely difficult to beat a Senator who is running for reelection. This one got very close, although he was black (which makes it even harder). Mandela should be proud, even if he obviously is not happy.
Mandela would be a good Senator. RonJon is a national disgrace. m
https://english.news.cn/20221107/871a1182bfe743c99d80f51daef0382f/c.html
November 7, 2022
China sees steady foreign trade growth in first 10 months
BEIJING — China’s trade in goods logged steady expansion in the first 10 months of this year as supportive policies, and enterprising trade firms contributed to the market’s resilience.
The country’s foreign trade of goods climbed 9.5 percent year on year to 34.62 trillion yuan (about 4.79 trillion U.S. dollars) during the Jan.-Oct. period, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Monday.
Exports rose 13 percent year on year to 19.71 trillion yuan, while imports increased 5.2 percent from a year ago to 14.91 trillion yuan.
In October, the country’s trade in goods totaled 3.55 trillion yuan, up 6.9 percent over one year ago. Exports and imports rose 7 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively.
In the first 10 months of 2022, ASEAN was China’s largest trading partner, whose trade volume with China accounted for 15.2 percent of the country’s total foreign trade.
The European Union and the United States were China’s second-largest and third-largest trading partners during the period, respectively.
China’s trade with countries and regions participating in the Belt and Road Initiative posted robust year-on-year growth, with both exports and imports jumping over 20 percent….
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1279008.shtml
November 8, 2022
Retail sales of NEVs reach 556,000 units in October, growing 75.2% year-on-year: CPCA
Retail sales of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) in China hit 556,000 units in October, up 75.2 percent year-on-year, continuing to display strong growth momentum despite sporadic COVID-19 flare-ups, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed on Tuesday.
The CPCA noted that supply improvement coupled with oil price hikes have boosted the domestic NEV market, driving electric vehicle sales upwards.
In the first 10 months this year, retail sales of new-energy vehicles recorded 4.43 million units, up 107.5 percent year-on-year.
Chinese made NEVs are increasingly going global on the back of rising international recognition. In October, NEV exports totaled 103,000 units, with 54,504 units from Tesla China and 18,688 from SAIC.
Due to the large price difference between oil and electricity, combined with the help of national energy structure adjustment policy, sales of NEVs have surged, and the process of replacing fuel-fired vehicles has accelerated.
In 2022, NEV sales are expected to reach 6.5 million and exceed 8.4 million in 2023, the association said….
https://english.news.cn/20220913/3bdd14cc292e44b799020ae9e8eab25d/c.html
September 13, 2022
Why are Chinese electric cars so popular in Israel?
By Wang Zhuolun
JERUSALEM — The Geometry C electric car produced by China’s automaker Geely Auto Group became the best-selling vehicle model in Israel in August, marking the first time that an electric car (EV) led the monthly list of all vehicle models sold in the country, according to figures recently released by the Israel Vehicle Importers Association (I-via).
This came as no surprise. With posh looks, reasonable pricing, and low energy consumption, Geometry C achieved almost 22 percent market share in Israel’s EV market in the first half of 2022 and was also nominated by Auto, Israel’s major car magazine, as the winner in the “Best Buy of the Year” category.
“The car can travel as far as 460 km on one charge, equivalent to the length of Israel, the longest of any electric vehicle in the country,” Jerusalem Post reported when the Chinese EV model was about to enter Israel in July 2021.
A total of 10,460 new EVs had been reportedly delivered to customers in Israel as of late July, 70 percent higher than the same period of the previous year, among which, the best-selling were still Geometry C….
https://english.news.cn/20221109/86fd7e35d5c14349ba1dec3fe48ee357/c.html
November 9, 2022
Tesla’s Shanghai factory delivers over 550,000 vehicles in first 10 months
SHANGHAI — Tesla’s Shanghai plant delivered 554,778 vehicles in the first 10 months of 2022, the U.S. electric carmaker said Wednesday.
Deliveries at the Shanghai Gigafactory reached 71,704 vehicles in October, up 32 percent from a year earlier. With the improvement of production efficiency, deliveries from January to October 2022 have far exceeded the 484,130 units delivered during the whole of 2021.
The factory, an important export center for Tesla, exported 219,427 vehicles in the January-October period, according to Tesla China.
The localization rate of the industrial chain of Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory has exceeded 95 percent, said Tao Lin, vice president of Tesla.
Off topic, Ukraine –
Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Kherson region in southern Ukraine, has apparently fallen out of a window into an auto accident:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/europe/kirill-stremousov-kherson-official-killed-intl/index.html
Is it just me or is Kansas going from “red state” to “schizoid”? How do you stick with Kelly for Governor, and go with Kris Kobach as your AG??
This is really kind of vertigo inducing for me. This also reminds me of all the big lie Republicans talking about invalid ballots, that would rob their own “down the ballot” candidate of races they had won. Which the hell way do Republicans want it?? I suppose if Democrats were as dumb as Republicans are we’d say “there’s no way Kobach won AG”, so we could throw out the Kelly winning ballots for a Chris Mann “win”. That’s pure MAGA genius right there. Who wants to join my idiocy brigade?? Econned?? CoRev?? Bruce Hall?? Rick Stryker?? I know the four of you MAGA losers would be dumb enough if you perceived it suited your political views.
Kevin Drum starts an informative discussion with:
https://jabberwocking.com/battery/
How many utility-scale solar plants are built with battery storage so they can provide power after the sun goes down?
Enjoy the entire discussion. Of course this lead question will assuredly get our mad barking dog CoRev all irritated. Whether you want to read his nonsensical reply to Kevin is up to you!
This chart confirms what realists have been talking about for years: https://jabberwocking.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/blog_california_batteries_daily_supply_renewables.jpg Battery backup may be growing, but the chart shows actual dependable backup is gas fired power plants. That’s true for today and the foreseeable future.
Only the psychotic, pathological liars want to implement this costly solution. Y’ano the kind of people who say there are no social benefits to use of fossil fuels.
But flood, famine and fire aren’t costly. Got it.
Funny how your “foreseeable future” looks ever-so-much like the past. Need to work on that vision thing.
MD since when have we NOT had flood, famine and fire?
“Funny how your “foreseeable future” looks ever-so-much like the past.” Which means there is NO CHANGE!
Where’s that list or even an example of those tipping points?
In your blind belief you made my point.
climate change is religion, faith that the world is ending,
then faith that co2 is the culprti
and ……..
faith that to over come solar and wind ‘intermittency’ requires roughly twice the lithium battery needed for replacing internal combustion engines (ice).
more misplaced faith that the feckless solutions won’t destroy economies…..
ignore new product introduction and system engineering bc the religion says the world is ending
Why are you not putting these comments over at Kevin Drum’s place? Oh that’s right – you are scared that his smart readers will mock your intellectual garbage. CoRev the coward!
Ole Bark, bark confirms even again that he is clueless. “Why are you not putting these comments over at Kevin Drum’s place? Oh that’s right – you are scared that his smart readers will mock your intellectual garbage. CoRev the coward!” Because I was responding to a comment here. Not there!
Do you actually have a comment regarding what I pointed out about your/Kevin’s figure. Did you actually note that the solution proposed, batteries to fulfill need when the Sun doesn’t shine, just adds more cost to the existing grid where fossil fuels are already adequate? And, as an economist you can not understand which policies impact inflation?
Send that degree back. You’re not using it., and worshiping at the altar of Climate Change.
I note what Kevin wrote:
During daylight hours, solar and wind (“renewables”) provide about 18,000 megawatts of power, far more than any other source. From dawn to midafternoon excess solar power is stored in the battery network. When it gets dark, the wind keeps blowing but we lose 12,000 megawatts of solar power. This is currently replaced by 8,000 megawatts of natural gas, 5,000 megawatts of imports from other states, and 2,000 megawatts of battery storage in order to meet peak demand during the hours of 7pm-10pm. Meanwhile, nuclear baseload chugs along at a constant 2,000 megawatts all day. Today, battery storage provides about 7% of peak demand, but the plan is to keep building massive battery capacity so we can reduce the use of natural gas plants during the evening.
This is a far cry from the intellectual garbage you wrote here. Hey CoRev – why don’t you ever post your trash over at Kevin’s place. What are you afraid of? Being slapped down by his smart readers? Come on CoRev – show a little spine and post a comment there. This should be fun!
Ole Bark, bark, in his climat4e Change religious fervor, says this: “This is a far cry from the intellectual garbage you wrote here.”: again without any reference.
His quote from Kevin: “… This is currently replaced by 8,000 megawatts of natural gas, 5,000 megawatts of imports…” Imports are hardly from renewables. So Kevin and presumably he now understand the meaning of Solar can NEVER satisfy PEAK DEMAND. Peak “Demand . “in order to meet peak demand during the hours of 7pm-10pm”. …and solar is replaced” by 8,000 megawatts of natural gas, 5,000 megawatts of imports from other states, and 2,000 megawatts of battery storage ”
What his Climate Religious Fervor also misses is that even at peak renewables supply, Non-renewables is still providing ~9,000 megawatts (~5,000 Gas, Nuclear ~2,000 and imports ~2,000). What he claims is intellectual garbage is confirmed by him and Kevin.
But, its religion, and blind belief is a necessity to be a zealot. Ho Hum!
Anyone else notice how silent Ole bark, bark is after being challenged on the understanding of his own reference?
Another fun fact: “Water vapor is 192 times stronger GHG than CO2 when you factor in both infrared absorbances and atmospheric concentrations. Yet, CO2 GHG proponents continue pushing CO2 causation rather than water vapor.” https://notrickszone.com/2022/11/11/veteran-chemical-engineer-co2-evaporation-11-times-larger-global-warming-driver-than-co2/
This fun fact is buttressed by the corollary that Water Vapor saturation in the atmosphere is limited by temperature, but actual atmospheric content of water vapor is seldom at saturation. When it is two other things occur: 1) clouds form and 2) often precipitation falls from those clouds. Both of these are negative temperature feedbacks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/technology/ftx-binance-crypto.html
November 9, 2022
Fall of a Crypto Titan Puts an Industry on Edge
The rapid collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange built by the billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried suggests that no company in the freewheeling, loosely regulated crypto industry is safe.
By David Yaffe-Bellany
[ Who could’ve known? ]
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/technology/cryptocurrency-binance-ftx.html
November 9, 2022
Is This Crypto’s Lehman Moment?
Here’s how to make sense of the industry-shaking Binance-FTX deal.
By Kevin Roose
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/technology/ftx-binance-crypto.html
November 9, 2022
Binance Pulls Out of Deal to Acquire Rival Crypto Exchange FTX
The rapid collapse of FTX, built by the billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, suggests that no company in the freewheeling, loosely regulated crypto industry is safe.
By David Yaffe-Bellany
[ There is no excuse I can think of for the Treasury and Federal Reserve in this matter. ]
Way, way, way off topic, but we need to understand China and ltr isn’t helping –
Happiness research has for some time faced a paradox – strong social relationships are the best predictor of happiness, but interdependent cultures, which definitionally involve stronger social relationships, report lower happiness than independent cultures. The resolution of the paradox may be in social comparison and rice:
https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2023-14674-001
More cooperation – and rice-based cultures are champions – lead to more social comparison and social comparison leads to unhappiness.
Related to the Cortez Masto “mystery”
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/349831/
Off topic, UK finances –
OK, OK, I know the U.S. electon is the only game n town right now, but the new UK government faces the same problems as the slightly-less-new UK government:
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-faces-50-billion-pound-fiscal-hole-government-sources-say-2022-11-07/
Contractionary fiscal policy in recession, induced by market vigilantes after it looked like vigilantes were a thing of he past, in a country which prints its own currency. This kinda problem doesn’t happen suddenly. Somebody has been making a mess. Future international finance textbooks will use this as a case study.
The rebirth of vgilantism is, irself, an interesting case. Prolonged low yields led us from an era of portfolio asset selection and dsciplinend to an era of structure aimed at meeting portfolio targets while buying structures to increase yield, match duration, or both. Implicit in these new portfolio structures was the assumption of continued low yields and low inflation. Leverage is the antithesis of discipline. “Discipline” is just a less dramatic way of saying “vigilantism”.
The UK is dealing with bond-market vigilantes newly born out of a liquidity scare. I guess there have been the FX equivalent of vigilantes all along, but “market vigilantes” have alway pretty much been “bond vigilantes” according to the legend.
Just a guess on my part, but bond guys are faces with a choice between more or less duration. That’s a very different choice when the curve is flat than when it’s steep. Currency guys can pick the curve and the duration on that curve. Once upon a time, eurodollars and CDs were overwhelmingly the most common asset choice for currency traders, but in recent years, teos, then fves, then tens became larger parts of he asset mix. Maybe that’s why currency traders have the reputation for being smarter than bond traders, even though they all graduate from the same programs. Anyhow, FX traders have more options, so appear less vigilante-like, than bond traders.
Anyhow, that’s my just-so story for bond vigilantes as denizens only of a market in which rates are well above zero (nominal) and inflation is variable.
“Contractionary fiscal policy in recession”
Back to the Cameron play book from a decade ago. I get JohnH thinks this will increase UK real wages!
it is 4:30 EST
4 senate seats not counted and
42 hosue seats in limbo
feed the extremists!
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1279106.shtml
November 9, 2022
China decides to grant zero-tariff treatment to 10 LDCs
China will grant zero-tariff treatment to 98 percent of taxable items originating in 10 least-developed countries (LDC), according to a statement released by the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council on Wednesday.
Experts said the move will raise China’s imports from LDCs, especially those in Africa, and promote economic and trade cooperation.
Effective on December 1, China will waive all tariffs on 98 percent of the related imports from Afghanistan, Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, the Kingdom of Lesotho, Malawi, Sao Tome and Principe, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.
The policy will cover 8,786 items, including agricultural products such as olive oil, cocoa powder and nuts, as well as various chemicals and product materials.
The policy is conducive to opening up with a win-win approach, building an open economy in the world, and helping LDCs to accelerate their economic development, the statement said.
Prior to this move, the commission announced plans to offer zero-tariff treatment for 98 percent of currently taxable products imported from 16 of the LDCs including Togo, Djibouti, Laos and Rwanda, which came into force on September 1.
The treatment is expected to give a strong boost to the export growth of African countries to China, experts said.
The move will further promote China-Africa economic and trade cooperation, and help African products explore the Chinese market, He Wenping, director of the African Studies Section at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
He added that it is a practical move for China, which has planned to import $300 billion of products from Africa in the next three years.
At the eighth Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in 2021, China announced plans to set up a green lane for African agricultural products to enter the Chinese market, expand the range of products covered by zero-tariff treatment and import $300 billion worth of products from Africa in the following three years, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
China-Africa economic cooperation has expanded rapidly in scale and extent. Over the past five years, China’s imports of African agricultural products have grown at an average annualized rate of 11.4 percent, making China the second-largest export destination for African agricultural products, according to the Xinhua report.
In 2021 China imported $5.03 billion of agricultural products from Africa, a year-on-year increase of 18.23 percent, reaching a record high….
https://english.news.cn/20221104/6f39891620e94a4aa673a47658d60661/c.html
November 4, 2022
Xi holds talks with Tanzanian president
BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with visiting Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan in Beijing on Thursday. The two presidents announced the elevation of the bilateral relationship to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership.
Noting that President Hassan is the first African head of state China has received after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Xi said it speaks volumes about the two countries’ close ties and the important position of China-Africa relations on China’s diplomatic agenda.
Xi recalled putting forth, while visiting Tanzania in 2013, the principle of sincerity, real results, amity and good faith to guide China’s cooperation with African countries. It has now become the basic policy guiding China’s solidarity and cooperation with other developing countries.
Under the new circumstances, the sound growth of China-Tanzania relations not only advances the common and long-term interests of the two countries, but also carries great significance for building a China-Africa community with a shared future in the new era, said Xi.
Xi briefed President Hassan on the proceedings of the 20th CPC National Congress. He pointed out that starting from now, the central task of the CPC will be to lead the Chinese people of all ethnic groups in a concerted effort to realize the Second Centenary Goal of building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects and to advance the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernization.
“Modernization does not mean Westernization,” Xi said, adding China has already found a development path suited to its national conditions. Chinese modernization is grounded in China’s own realities, with features that are unique to the Chinese context, said Xi….
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=SCbB
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi and China, 1989-2021
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=SCbU
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi and China, 1989-2021
(Indexed to 1989)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=SYdA
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and China, 1989-2021
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=SYdD
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and China, 1989-2021
(Indexed to 1989)
Hershel Walker won the white vote but nothing else:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/herschel-walker-won-overwhelming-share-of-white-votes-the-only-group-that-supported-him/ar-AA13VUZj?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=319d05f0aba048eb86bf9e3555c675e5
Well wasn’t that the plan? Put up their Uncle Tom and make sure no minority voter got access to the ballots. MAGA!
Of course, JohnH will interpret my comment here as me somehow hoping real wages decline. He is THAT STUPID.
Oh yea – supporting effective gun control is also me supporting lower real wages according to JohnH!
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2002/mar/30/race.society
March 30, 2002
Don’t blame Uncle Tom
The hero of a novel published 150 years ago has become a byword for black betrayal and subservience. But has he been misrepresented?
By Gary Younge – Guardian
This is suicide. For a politically engaged black writer I might as well pen my own obituary. Or at least sentence myself to a life in purdah – for the words will almost certainly be taken down in evidence and used against me at a later date. But we cannot always espouse fashionable causes. So hang it. It is time that someone spoke up for Uncle Tom.
This month sees the 150th anniversary of the publication of Uncle Tom’s Cabin, and it is time that Uncle Tom was rehabilitated. Not the Uncle Tom of popular insult; not the “neutralised negro”, “non-practising Black” or “Reverend Pork Chop” charged with undermining black freedom struggles by ingratiating himself with his white overseers. Not the Tom of racial slur, but the Tom of literary history: the original Tom, husband of Chloe, father of Mose, Peter and Polly and creation of Harriet Beecher Stowe. It is time to save the signifier from the sign. Uncle Tom’s Cabin is one of those books which is more likely to be cited in anger than to have been read at leisure. So while most people think they “know” Uncle Tom as the Stepin Fetchit of plantation politics, few have actually met the man who lived on the page and whose good name has been so thoroughly traduced.
So let me introduce you. We first see Tom in his cabin in Kentucky where his slave master, Mr Shelby, is forced to sell two of his slaves to clear his debts. Shelby chooses Tom and Harry, the young son of fellow slave Eliza. Preferring the risk of being caught to the certainty of being split up, Eliza makes a run for it with her child. But Tom, to whom Shelby had promised freedom, refuses to flee.
Later, separated from his wife and family, Tom heads deeper down south in the hands of a slave trader, while Eliza makes it to Canada with her son and husband, who has also fled from another owner, and eventually settles in Liberia.
Tom, meanwhile, is floating on a passenger boat down the Mississippi under the watchful eye of the slave trader when he sees a white girl, Eva, fall overboard and dives in to save her. Eva persuades her father to buy him and Tom becomes the property of Augustine St Clare, a wealthy planter from Louisiana. St Clare also offers Tom his freedom but dies suddenly before it is granted. His wife refuses to honour the promise and sells Tom to the vicious Simon Legree. Legree admires Tom’s diligence but is frustrated by his refusal to do his bidding. When he orders Tom to whip a fellow slave, Tom refuses and is beaten himself.
When two other slaves go missing, Legree threatens Tom with death unless he tells his master where they are. Tom says he knows but won’t say and is fatally thrashed. As he lies, dying, the son of Mr Shelby arrives with the money to honour his father’s promise of freedom in time to see the family’s once favourite slave perish at the hands of a brute.
The story was originally run in an anti-slavery newspaper. But when it was released in book form in March 1852, it was an immediate sensation. In the US alone it sold 300,000 copies in a year, and more than 2m copies by the end of the decade.
What is now commonly regarded as a sentimentalist, racist text was at the time received as a vicious polemic against slavery in general and against the fugitive slave law in particular. In an America divided at the time between the slave-owning south and the “free states” of the north, the law demanded that northerners returned slaves who had escaped back into the bondage of the south.
In a nation bitterly split and destined for civil war on this very issue, the book’s publication, not to mention its success, provoked a vicious reaction. “Uncle Tom’s Cabin was the epicentre of a massive cultural phenomenon,” writes Richard Yarborough, a California-based academic, in his essay: Strategies of black characterisation in Uncle Tom’s Cabin, “the tremors of which still affect the relationship between blacks and whites in the United States.”
In the 19th century, the editor of the Southern Literary Messenger instructed his reviewer: “I would have the review as hot as hellfire, blasting and searing the reputation of the vile wretch in petticoats who could write such a volume.”
Within two years, pro-slavery writers had answered Uncle Tom’s Cabin with at least 15 novels, similarly polemical in style but arguing that slaves in the south were better off than free workers in the north. One of these novels was called Uncle Robin In His Cabin In Virginia And Tom Without One In Boston.
When Abraham Lincoln met Stowe in 1862, one year into the American civil war, he greeted her with the words: “So you’re the little woman who wrote the book that made this great war.” But the novel’s impact was global rather than national. Among those who hailed it as a masterpiece were Ivan Turgenev, Victor Hugo, Leo Tolstoy and George Eliot. The British prime minister, Lord Palmerston, read it three times and admired it not so much for the story as “for the statesmanship of it”. …
Possibly when choosing a racial insult, we might far better avoid the insult altogether. We might especially avoid a racial “insult” that is altogether incorrect, but better just avoid such an insult.
You’re such a Goody Two-Shoes.
perhaps this would make sense to somebody other than ltr, who seems to believe any contrary comment is simply a racist insult.
About rice growing and eating, which has characterized more than half the world’s population, Chinese agricultural specialists went to Madagascar several years ago to introduce hybrid rice to island farmers and adapt the rice to the local climate. The result has been the richest rice harvests in Africa and gratitude enough in Madagascar that this years the national currency was redesigned with an engraving of a Chinese hybrid rice field as background. Such is being happy and grateful for the happiness.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=V2EZ
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China and Madagascar, 1977-2021
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=V2F3
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China and Madagascar, 1977-2021
(Indexed to 1977)
Can we start obsessing about holiday sales now?
OK, the Christmas tree is 30% off, but 30% off WHAT!!!! Ok, back to our regularly scheduled programming.
…….. “in other news Masha Gessen says that if donald trump returns to power in 2024, Putin will ‘finish the job’ in Ukraine.”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ToVj
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China, South Africa, Zambia and Madagascar, 1977-2021
(Indexed to 1977)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ToVj
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China, South Africa, Zambia and Madagascar, 1977-2021
(Indexed to 1977)
Has anyone explained to Walker yet that “run-off” isn’t what you do when you have kids?
I thought run-off was that brown stuff on the side of Giuliani’s head. So confusing.
You’re such a Goody Two-Shoes.
You’re such a Goody Two-Shoes.
You’re such a Goody Two-Shoes.
[ Possibly when choosing a racial insult, we might far better avoid the insult altogether. We might especially avoid a racial “insult” that is altogether incorrect, but better just avoid such an insult.
Imagine the consuming prejudice that would express disdain for lesson on racial insult.
Imagine such consuming prejudice. ]
Imagine the cultural ignorance which doesn’t recognize that Goody Two Shoes is another case exactly like the case of Uncle Tom. Goody Two Shoes as a literary character is quite different from the Goody Two Shoes in common speech, just like Uncle Tom.
All I did was to make a little joke and allow you to show your ignorance. You did, and showed your argance in the process. That article you posted, ignoring, in your arrogance, our hosts’ requests that you refrain from posting large parts of copyrighted articles? There are probably dozens of articles, maybe hundreds, making the same point. The author’s protestations – “Oh, I’m gonna get in trouble for this!” – probably not. It’s pretty widely known that there are two Uncle Toms, one in the book, one in common speech. Young folk, not yet fully culturally literate, think they’ve made a great discovery when they figure it out. I’d guess the author is not long out of school.
You, in you ignorance, arrogance, and hypocritical eagerness to demand racial correctnss from others, feel entitle to lecture others. Lecture Xi about China’s racism, slavery, hegemony, duplicity – rather than making a fool of yourself lecturing us.
As long as we’re talking literature, here’s a relevant bit:
“Thou hypocrite, first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother’s eye.”
Gads! Gary Younge is 53 years old! Old enough to know better. Not, however, from the U.S., so his naive understanding of the place of “Uncle Tom” in American English is perhaps understandable.
@ ltr
Herschel Walker makes decisions which both destroy his own race and contribute to and reinforce negative stereotypes about his own race. I’m thinking commenter ltr may be right. Xi Jinping and Chairman Mao would have been the more accurate and apropos analogy~~as relates to men who damage their own race.. Good catch ltr.
Well wasn’t that the plan? Put up their Uncle Tom…
Well wasn’t that the plan? Put up their Uncle Tom…
Well wasn’t that the plan? Put up their Uncle Tom…
[ Such is the fostering of racism:
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2002/mar/30/race.society
March 30, 2002
Don’t blame Uncle Tom
The hero of a novel published 150 years ago has become a byword for black betrayal and subservience. But has he been misrepresented?
By Gary Younge – Guardian ]
Let’s get this party started!:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/missouri-republicans-hawley-schmitt-say-senate-gop-needs-new-leadership-not-mitch-mcconnell
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/freedom-caucus-andy-biggs-says-not-fast-mccarthy-speakership-disappointing-election-results
Knives are out for Mitch and Kevin.
@ Macroduck
See…….. you’ve been exchanging views and courtesies with me too much here on the blog. My sicko sadism is finally rubbing off on you a little.
Lecture — about ——- racism, slavery, hegemony, duplicity – rather than making a fool of yourself lecturing us.
Lecture — about ——- racism, slavery, hegemony, duplicity – rather than making a fool of yourself lecturing us.
Lecture — about ——- racism, slavery, hegemony, duplicity – rather than making a fool of yourself lecturing us.
[ Always, but always, racial falseness. Always, but always, a need to foster racism. Imagine being so consumed by prejudice. ]
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2002/mar/30/race.society
March 30, 2002
Don’t blame Uncle Tom
In a nation bitterly split and destined for civil war on this very issue, the book’s publication, not to mention its success, provoked a vicious reaction. “Uncle Tom’s Cabin was the epicentre of a massive cultural phenomenon,” writes Richard Yarborough, a California-based academic, in his essay: Strategies of black characterisation in Uncle Tom’s Cabin, “the tremors of which still affect the relationship between blacks and whites in the United States.”
In the 19th century, the editor of the Southern Literary Messenger instructed his reviewer: “I would have the review as hot as hellfire, blasting and searing the reputation of the vile wretch in petticoats who could write such a volume.”
Within two years, pro-slavery writers had answered Uncle Tom’s Cabin with at least 15 novels, similarly polemical in style but arguing that slaves in the south were better off than free workers in the north. One of these novels was called Uncle Robin In His Cabin In Virginia And Tom Without One In Boston.
When Abraham Lincoln met Stowe in 1862, one year into the American civil war, he greeted her with the words: “So you’re the little woman who wrote the book that made this great war.” But the novel’s impact was global rather than national. Among those who hailed it as a masterpiece were Ivan Turgenev, Victor Hugo, Leo Tolstoy and George Eliot. The British prime minister, Lord Palmerston, read it three times and admired it not so much for the story as “for the statesmanship of it”….
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2002/mar/30/race.society
Uncle Tom stands up to Simon Legree
“And now,” said Legree, “come here, you Tom. You see, I telled ye I didn’t buy ye jest for the common work; I mean to promote ye, and make a driver of ye; and to-night ye may jest as well begin to get yer hand in. Now, ye jest take this yer gal and flog her; ye’ve seen enough on’t to know how.”
“I beg Mas’r’s pardon,” said Tom; “hopes Mas’r won’t set me at that. It’s what I an’t used to, – never did, – and can’t do, no way possible.”
“‘Ye’ll larn a pretty smart chance of things ye never did know, before I’ve done with ye!” said Legree, taking up a cowhide, and striking Tom a heavy blow cross the cheek, and following up the infliction by a shower of blows.
“There!” he said, as he stopped to rest; “now, will ye tell me ye can’t do it?”
“Yes, Mas’r,” said Tom, putting up his hand, to wipe the blood, that trickled down his face. “I’m willin’ to work, night and day, and work while there’s life and breath in me; but this yer thing I can’t feel it right to do; – and, Mas’r, I never shall do it, – never!”
Tom had a remarkably smooth, soft voice, and a habitually respectful manner, that had given Legree an idea that he would be cowardly, and easily subdued. When he spoke these last words, a thrill of amazement went through every one; the poor woman clasped her hands, and said, “O Lord!” and every one involuntarily looked at each other and drew in their breath, as if to prepare for the storm that was about to burst.
Legree looked stupefied and confounded; but at last burst forth, “What! ye blasted black beast! tell me ye don’t think it right to do what I tell ye! What have any of you cussed cattle to do with thinking what’s right? I’ll put a stop to it! Why, what do ye think ye are? May be ye think yer a gentleman master, Tom, to be a telling your master what’s right, and what ain’t! So you pretend it’s wrong to flog the gal!”
“I think so, Mas’r,” said Tom; “‘the poor crittur’s sick and feeble; ‘t would be downright cruel, and it’s what I never will do, nor begin to. Mas’r, if you mean to kill me, kill me; but, as to my raising my hand agin any one here, I never shall, – I’ll die first!”
Tom spoke in a mild voice, but with a decision that could not be mistaken. Legree shook with anger…
“Well, here’s a pious dog, at last, let down among us sinners! – a saint, a gentleman, and no less, to talk to us sinners about our sins! Powerful holy critter, he must be! Here, you rascal, you make believe to be so pious, – didn’t you never hear, out of yer Bible, ‘Servants, obey yer masters’? An’t I yer master? Didn’t I pay down twelve hundred dollars, cash, for all there is inside yer old cussed black shell? An’t yer mine, now, body and soul?” he said, giving Tom a violent kick with his heavy boot; “tell me!”
In the very depth of physical suffering, bowed by brutal oppression, this question shot a gleam of joy and triumph through Tom’s soul. He suddenly stretched himself up, and, looking earnestly to heaven, while the tears and blood that flowed down his face mingled, he exclaimed: “No! no! no! my soul an’t yours, Mas’r! You haven’t bought it, ye can’t buy it! It’s been bought and paid for, by one that is able to keep it; no matter, no matter, you can’t harm me!”
“I can’t!” said Legree, with a sneer; “we’ll see, we’ll see!”
· From Uncle Tom’s Cabin Or, Life Among The Lowly, by Harriet Beecher Stowe
Senate control comes down to Georgia, where we will have a run-off. I don’t think Warnock’s odds of winning are 93%. 60-65% is more likely.
Steven Kopits: PredictIt latest at 73%.
Steven,
Cortez very likely to win in Nv. Does not depend on GA.
I see ltr continues to throw around the term “racism” without having an inkling of what it really means.