China GDP and Forecasts

Chinese GDP for q4 was released a couple weeks ago, show a resumption of growth. The IMF has upped its growth forecast (WEO), relative to October’s, by nearly a percentage point (y/y). Nonetheless, the level of GDP will match roughly what was expected back in April’s report.

Figure 1: China real GDP index, 2013q1=1 (bold black), IMF WEO January 2023 update projection (sky blue triangle), IMF WEO April 2022 projection (tan triangle), and Goldman Sachs 1/29 forecast (pink triangle). Real GDP index calculated by cumulating growth rates on 2013Q1 level = 1. Source:, IMF WEO (January 2023, April 2022), Goldman Sachs (1/29/2023), and author’s calculations.

The upgrade to growth rates in 2023 were due largely to the lifting of Covid restrictions. This seems to be in agreement with most forecasts I see for the Chinese economy, some stressing the fact that most people will have been infected and will have some immunity then encouraging the resumption of consumption. Mobility indicators through mid January support this view. Other observers (e.g., Paulson Institute) say the recovery will be very fast in Q1, and then much slower thereafter (a “square root”), given patterns following previous reopenings.


3 thoughts on “China GDP and Forecasts

  1. Macroduck

    Forecasts for the U.S., China, Germany, Japan and India have recently been upgraded. The UK forecast has been downgraded, as has Brazil’s, Russia’s and Indonesia’s. The UK and Russia are the only big economies forecast to contract this year – both the result of their own policy choices.

  2. Moses Herzog

    I made too many friends and had too much fun (certainly in the early portion of my time there) not to wish the general Chinese citizenry well. They are a highly intelligent, terrifically hospitable hosts to guests/outsiders (in fact I doubt nearly any culture beats them in this regard), they have high high potential to be great. Again, I always think of W. Edwards Deming’s “red beads test” when I think of the great potential of the Chinese people, One day….. one day….. the Chinese will throw away the red beads test that is their society and systemic constraints, and then Oh damn~~~the sleeping giant will wake up. Watch out. Good or bad, watch out.

    Forget about Taiwan, just make your mainland peoples happy. Isn’t that “grand” enough goal?? Just to make the mainland peoples happy with their white picket fence, green grass, tall glass of lemonade, Sears model kit pre-fabricated house. Blabla bla. Isn’t that enough and “grand” enough goal?? Just do that. It’s enough.

  3. Moses Herzog

    I really genuinely thought the UK would see its way through “Brexit” on through to the light at the end of the tunnel in pretty good shape. It appears as of this moment I was horridly wrong. Damn, a “new first”!!!! /sarc /joke.

    [ Whistling an old Broadway tune ] Any good sports games this week??

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