Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
Debt Held by the Public as Share of GDP
From Treasury, and CBO.
Figure 1: Federal debt held by public, as share of potential GDP (blue), and as share of GDP (tan), in %. Source: Treasury via FRED, CBO (May 2022), and author’s calculations.
134 thoughts on “Debt Held by the Public as Share of GDP”
Bueller…… ?? Bueller…… ?? Bueller…..? James Hamilton….. ?? James Hamilton……. ?? James Hamilton…… ??
pgl
Gee – I see your favorite boy Jonny Cochrane penned some nonsense called
A Consumption Tax Is the Shock Our Broken System Needs
Rep. Carter’s ‘Fair Tax’ would fund the government with fewer economic distortions than estate and income taxes.
No I have not read this garbage yet but I’m sure he concluded with Let Them Eat Cake.
Moses Herzog
Of course Johnny Cuckrant loves it. It’s a regressive tax. He’d probably insist it be assessed on bread and peanut butter and excluded on luxury items. I won’t read what he penned either, for personal health reasons, because getting extremely angry raises your blood pressure. Johnny Cuckrant is sick~~a narcissistic sociopath on George Santos levels. He should be put in the closest mental institution to his home in complete isolation in a room that has no bed furnished with 3-4 sharp objects placed on a small coffee table with a large posterboard taped to the wall that says “Go ahead and do it”.
pgl
I just saw a discussion on LinkedIn where some supposed big shot was telling all his rich corporate buddies that this sales tax idea was the cat’s meow. Turns out he wrote something for the Financial Post which was your usual blah, blah, blah. So I decided to check out his professional background. Yea you guessed it – a partner at accounting firm that makes money helping fat cats evade income taxes. Such a waste.
Macroduck
Estate taxes are distortionate? (Scratches head…)
pgl
Well maybe it encourages rich old farts to delay their own death. Besides if your estate is worth $500 million – you can always get some hack appraiser to say it is worth only $100 million.
Moses Herzog
If Johnny Cuckrant actually cared about things that were truly distortional, he’d be touring the country railing against “Medicare Advantage”.
Public Service Announcement:
“Medicare Advantage” is NOT Medicare. It is a scam intended to make HMOs and insurers rich off of Seniors’ life savings. Thanks for your time.
Paul Mathis
Why is economics the only science where flat-earthers like Cochrane are regarded as experts by a significant segment of the profession?
Physics has no professors claiming that Newton’s laws are bogus or that Einstein knew nothing. But in economics there is no core consensus. It is just a free-for-all of opinions untethered to history for many professionals.
Being proved obviously wrong is of no consequence, i.e., Larry Summers, June 2022:
“We need five years of unemployment above 5 percent to contain inflation—in other words, we need two years of 7.5 percent unemployment or five years of 6 percent unemployment or one year of 10 percent unemployment,” Summers said during a speech at the London School of Economics. He added that the numbers were “remarkably discouraging” compared with the predictions of Federal Reserve leaders, who have suggested they can bring down inflation without pushing unemployment much above 4 percent.
Moses Herzog
In fairness to “orthodox” economists, I would venture to say many consider Cuckrant more heterodox~~or worse. He’s more respected in finance circles than he is the economics profession. But maybe Professor Chinn or Prof Hamilton or whatever credentialed economist can chime in and correct me if I have that wrong.
baffling
“Why is economics the only science where flat-earthers like Cochrane are regarded as experts by a significant segment of the profession?”
because you do not have an effective cudgel . the pessimistic view is that money has not infiltrated the physics profession the way it has infiltrated the economics profession. as can be seen in economics, everybody seems to have a price at which they can be bought. lots of money flowing into the pockets of all these “think tanks” in the economics world. most of them are simply propaganda machines. I don’t see that happening in physics. although on a second thought, when you consider all the physics phd’s who moved into the world of quant financing, maybe my statements are not quite as accurate.
CoRev
Baffled claims: ” the pessimistic view is that money has not infiltrated the physics profession the way it has infiltrated the economics profession. … I don’t see that happening in physics.”
Except for those doing the Climate Studies and models?????
pgl
CoRev
February 9, 2023 at 9:04 am
CoRev notes that the climate change debate is infiltrated by lying trolls like CoRev.
Hey CoRev – go back to misrepresenting ag econ as in your stupid soybean comments.
Macroduck
This idea that the money is on the side of legitimate climate science rather than on the side of climate-change deniers is in the same class as claims that tobacco is good for your lungs or that Pelosi drinks baby blood.
And here’s CoVid, repeating the most obvious lie in the fake science playbook. Thanks for being so transparently dishonest.
CoRev
Not one of you naysayers has refuted the comment. Indeed, even MD has backhandedly confirmed the money comment: “This idea that the money is on the side of legitimate climate science rather than on the side of climate-change deniers ” Just this US Agency in its grant awards shows the disparity: https://www.epa.gov/research-grants/climate-change-research-grants”
“Open Grants
These climate change research grants are currently open or have been awarded within the past ten years.
Air, Climate and Energy (ACE) Centers: Science Supporting Solutions
Particulate Matter and Related Pollutants in a Changing World
Closed Grants
National Priorities: Systems-Based Strategies to Improve the Nation’s Ability to Plan and Respond to Water Scarcity and Drought Due to Climate Change
Indoor Air and Climate Change
Anthropogenic Influences on Organic Aerosol Formation and Regional Climate Implications
Measurements and Modeling for Quantifying Air Quality and Climatic Impacts of Residential Biomass or Coal Combustion for Cooking, Heating, and Lighting
Extreme Event Impacts on Air Quality and Water Quality with a Changing Global Climate
Source Attribution of Radiative Forcing in Chemical Transport
Black Carbons Role In Global To Local Scale Climate And Air Quality”
Anyone notice any non-anthropocentric studies? Even the most innocuous, apparently nature-centric studies concentrate on anthropogenic impacts.
But to make this determination they must be read by the igrnoranti.
pgl
CoRev
February 10, 2023 at 4:27 am
Not one of you naysayers has refuted the comment.
Ah CoRev – that is because NO ONE here gives a hoot about your stupid little rants. Go find a right wing blog where people are dumb enough to think your rants are insightful.
Baffling
Did it ever occur to the idiot that anthropogenic pollutants are fixable because we cause them? Therefore that is a natural area for somebody to study, because it is certainly an area that humans can impact. Covid, your comments get sillier everyday day. But coming from a fool who thinks we should further study ivermectin to cure covid, it is no surprise you fail to understand the link between why a particular item should or should not be studied. You cant make this stuff up folks. Covid is proof these people do actually exist. Darwin does work, just at a very slow pace.
Anonymous
three law in philosophy: physical, manmade, and divine.
okay only two now.
difference manmade to physical: no one has disproved law of gravity since one fell on Isaac. all kinds of experiments yield observations to support Einstein in relativity. models describing newton, and Einstein are tested by experiment and validated and verified.
manmade law enjoy little use unverifiable models, and correlation w/o validation by causation.
economics fits more to manmade rather than physical.
I can say gravity is the law, but I cannot say what jpow thinks is law…
that is predicts an if then….descriptive models in Econ have no v&v like in physics.
Paul Mathis
Demand causes investment causes supply to meet demand. That is true law. The opposite is not true.
But the econ profession is not unanimous.
joseph
I like to look at interest on the debt as a percentage of GDP. Debt burden is much lower than during the Reagan years. Even lower if you consider that the Fed currently owns about a quarter of the debt and refunds its interest to the Treasury.
“Debt burden is much lower than during the Reagan years. Even lower if you consider that the Fed currently owns about a quarter of the debt and refunds its interest to the Treasury.”
This went from more than 3% to less than 2% now. A point Bruce Hall loves to deny. Then again Brucie is chief economist for Kelly Anne Alternative Facts Conway.
Macroduck
This is where roll-over matters. The weighted average maturity of Treasury debt outstanding, at 74 months, is the highest on record, and is projected to increase further. As debt is rolled over in the new, higher interest rate environment, the interest rate burden will increase.
I can’t find a link, but if you query “Treasury Presentation to TBAC January 2023”, you’ll get a complete look at Treasury’s expectations for future borrowing needs, interest rates and so on.
The interest rate environment is critical to the debt burden, public and private. A look at the drivers of interest rates – inflation, demographics, structural demand for debt – would be worth the effort.
Macroduck
I should have written more clearly. A long weighted average maturity will help keep the interest costs down for a while, because it slows roll-over in a higher interest-rate environment. In the longer term, longer average maturity increases borrowing costs, assuming an upward-sloping yield curve.
Macroduck
In fact, an inverted curve and a return to negative term premium says Treasury should be issuing long right now. Of course, with the debt ceiling having been reached, Treasury doesn’t have much choice about the maturity of its issuance.
pgl
Gee – I see your favorite boy Jonny Cochrane penned some nonsense called
A Consumption Tax Is the Shock Our Broken System Needs
Rep. Carter’s ‘Fair Tax’ would fund the government with fewer economic distortions than estate and income taxes.
No I have not read this garbage yet but I’m sure he concluded with Let Them Eat Cake.
Econned
Menzie Chinn,
Not sure what you’re “sayin’” here either. So I’ll bite and try to make this interesting…
What are your thoughts on those (e.g. Jason Furman and presumably others) who say debt:gdp is a problematic fiscal metric and that net interest/gdp is a better metric?
pgl
This is why I wish Econned could have the decency to provide links:
Debt to GDP is a misleading metric for assessing the sustainability of fiscal trajectory and policymakers should instead look at real net interest as a share of GDP. Furman walks through several reasons why debt to GDP is a poor metric. First, this measure divides a stock by a flow variable, since debt is a stock, while GDP is a flow variable. Second, it does not reflect interest rates. Third, the metric is backward-looking and doesn’t include what’s coming. Furman says looking at real interest payments as a share of debt is a much better metric as it reflects debt that is inflating away.
Furman’s “tentative framework” for fiscal policy works toward a goal where real interest does not exceed 1% of GDP in the coming decade. Or, by another metric, debt to GDP should be less than 150% or 200%. Furman says anything the U.S. does in the fiscal space needs to be a combination of optimal, understandable, and achievable.
A first discussion. Furman – like Milton Friedman, Tom Sargent & Neil Wallace, and Robert Barro over 40 years ago – talking about real (not nominal interest rates) which is just good economics. Bruce Hall – try to pay attention.
Ivan
Depend on what you are trying to get a metric for.
Current or future burden, current of future risk (of increased burden), risk of $ value increase/decrease on exports, risk that morons will panic. There are many things that we may want to quantify and for which the total debt or interest payments (normalized to GDP) may be somewhat relevant numbers.
Econned
Ivan,
When and under which circumstances (aside from “risk that morons will panic” because any metric can make a moron panic) is debt:gdp useful as a fiscal metric? I think Furman makes great arguments that it’s an overused metric and others provide more insight on a nation’s fiscal stance.
pgl
Well – the most useful way of thinking about comes from the likes of Barro or Sargent & Wallace who would compare the present value of the non-interest government surplus to the current level of debt all relative to GDP. It is actually a simple model if one assumes a steady state where d = the debt/GDP ratio and the present value of future non-interest surpluses can be captured as:
(t – g)/(r – n) where r = the real interest rate, n = the growth rate of real GDP, t = taxes/GDP and g = government spending excluding interest/GDP.
Furman is right to focus on the real interest expense/GDP ratio being 1% or less but I wish he would been a bit more explicit of his underlying assumptions in terms of this time honored model.
Ivan
The question should be what is the informational content of debt:gdp?
The debt is a measure of obligations being pushed into the future. The GDP is a measure of how big our productive capacity is. Both of those parameters comes with a textbook worth of caveats, presumptions and flaws. So if we ignore all of those, we would say that the ratio is a measure of how capable our economy is of “paying back” the obligations we previously committed to. The big question is why would we ever consider “paying back” given how much damage that insane act would do to our society and economy.
pgl
I have provided folks like Econned the basic finance framework, which requires one to specify how fast real GDP grows over time as well as the expected non-interest surplus/GDP is expected to evolve over time. I get Furman is providing part of this story by saying he is OK with real interest expenses/GDP being no more than 1% but without the other key parameters, one has to wonder how he came to this conclusion. Not saying he is wrong but I grade his essay as incomplete.
Econned
Ivan,
Thanks for the response. Yes, I agree with the question but the issue with debt:gdp to answer that question are numerous. For starters why look at current productive capacity to assess future obligations? Also, debt is backward looking and doesn’t reflect the future. And why use a flow to assess a stock? Why ignore interest rates?
Anonymous
gao 23-105586
FINANCIAL AUDIT; Bureau of the Fiscal, Service’s FY 2022 and FY 2021
Schedules of Federal Debt Nov 2022, pg 29
federal debt held by the public was $24.3T
federal interagency debt was $6.6T
as of 30 Sep 2022.
pgl
‘federal interagency debt was $6.6T’
consists of certain trust funds such as Social Security which Rick Scott wants to wipe out for more tax cuts for rich people. Biden called out Senator Scott and it seems Kevin McCarthy got concerned saying he agrees with Biden on this issue. We will see.
pgl
Confession – I did not stay up for the State of the Union address but I hear certain Republicans embarrassed themselves with heckling. I’m sure this got the tax cut for rich people party all upset:
Assailing oil companies for making high profits and corporate America for taking advantage of consumers, Biden used his prime time speech to outline progressive priorities of his Democratic Party that are anathema to many Republican lawmakers.
Their 4th quarter results have not been released but I suspect Exxon will pass $400 billion in sales and $80 in profits before taxes for 2022. Yea – it is a big company. Now the debate seems to be should Exxon pay out more in dividends or use more of their profits to invest in new energy sources.
But wait – why are we taxing all of these profits at a mere 21% rate? I checked their 2021 10-K and it seems Exxon’s worldwide effective tax rate is closer to 25%. It seems most of Exxon’s profits are sourced abroad and foreign nations tend to hit these profits with not only their normal income tax rate but also an additional windfall profits tax. We should do the same.
pgl
I did not listen to Sarah Yuckabee Sanders either but I understand it may have been the most pathetic address ever:
“The choice is no longer between right or left,” declared Sanders, former press secretary to Donald Trump. “The choice is between normal and crazy.” Many agreed ― just not in the way she was likely expecting as they pointed to her party’s own extremists, and in particular the wild behavior of conspiracy theorist Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) just minutes earlier during Biden’s speech.
Yea – that was dumb on her part. But that was not nearly the worse from little miss chubby. She actually had to the gall to suggest Democrats were teaching school kids to hate while Republicans were the party of love. Seriously? If one is black, Hispanic, Asian, gay, or anything other than Southern White Christians, people like Yuckabee preach hatred of you in the vilest of ways.
Moses Herzog
“Marjorie” is the new “Karen”.
Who knew??
Macroduck
Speaking of debt, Russia’s latest budget news is what honest people expected all along:
this is why those without a political agenda have been preaching patience. the damage will come. and it will be long term. and the russian public will have to face the consequences. and determine whether putin is worth it.
Ivan
Yes these are huge changes. Oil and gas revenues dropping 46%, while government outlays are up 56%. Even the $155 billion rainy day fund doesn’t sound that big with a deficit in January of $25 billion. Looks like Biden’s plan was brilliant and effective.
pgl
“Oil and gas revenues dropping 46%”
And this after Putin raised the profits tax rate on oil from 20% to 34%.
Ivan
I did see somewhere that Russia is forced to sell at 50% discount ($40 rather than market price of $80pb). That would seriously cut profits, especially if the sanctions have increased the cost/ability to maintain production. So a bigger cut, but from a much smaller pie. Furthermore, the corruption in Russia is legendary, so I would not be surprised if the increased government % cut has increased cheating substantially. Lots of oilygarchs may be going “1 out of 5 dollars for the motherland is OK, but 1 out of 3, and after they stole my yacht – no way”.
For those who are too lazy, the Republicans voted to raise the debt ceiling limit under donald trump THREE times. Funny how that Republican FAKE concern over the national debt works isn’t it?? It always kicks into high gear whenever Republicans lose the White House. THEN Republicans “care” about the national debt.
baffling
does not look like republicans are what you would call fiscally conservative when they own the government. even if you discount the pandemic, debt as percent of gdp was increasing under trump and republican leadership. why are we now sooooooo concerned about paying the debt limit, republicans? hypocrites.
Macroduck
Speaking of Russia, the IMF is less dour than Russia’s own forecasters:
Twitter Kept Entire ‘Database’ of Republican Requests to Censor Posts
Elon Musk’s “Twitter Files” focus on Democrats, but former administration officials and Twitter employees say Trump’s team and other Republicans routinely demanded posts be taken down
Elon has a lot of splaining to do.
Macroduck
A rambling look at a narrow feature of a possible future for interest expense on the debt –
Part of the cost of the deficit – most of the time – is term premium. The technical definition of term premium has been covered here in the past, so I won’t bother, but in practical terms, uncertainty about future values of other drivers of interest rates end up in term premium. Term premium and volatility tend to go hand-in-hand*:
That’s because volatility amounts to risk, and risk has to be compensated.
It is generally assumed that the Fed ‘s accumulation of Treasury debt through quantitative easing has reduced volatility in the Treasury market, though other factors are also affect volatility. Here’ the picture:
Of course, this all runs in reverse when the Fed is shedding assets, as is now the case. Which is to say, there are now at least three channels through which the Fed is putting upward pressure on longer-term Treasury yields: 1) cost of funds; 2) supply, and; 3) volatility (term premium). Right now, that upward pressure is not showing up very clearly in term premium:
Assuming everything works normally as recession concerns subside (one way or another), term premium will eventually add to longer-term yields.
* Sorry for the truncated picture. This is the only version of Treasury market volatility I could find at FRED. The MOVE index can be found at any number of fine retail establishments, like this:
““The Capital Order: How Economists Invented Austerity and Paved the Way to Fascism,” and uses the historical record in Europe to argue that austerity — tightening the belt, cutting government programs — is less about budgets and debt and more about deliberately making the labor force feel insecure.”
Cameron’s austerity lowered UK real wages. Oh wait – JohnH said the opposite happened. Yea – he lied. What’s new? He is all for Putin’s fascism after all.
JohnH
Funny! pgl complains about Cameron’s austerity but not Democratic deficit hawks’ austerity. pgl is a true partisan hack.
pgl
That stupid line was pathetic worthless snipe when you wrote it over and over again at Mark Thoma’s place. Come on Jonny boy – everyone here knows you are as dishonest and as dumb as it gets. Get a new line loser.
Macroduck
Another off topic comment, profits and inflation –
Researchers at the KC Fed have published a piece which addresses the topic of markups, monopoly power and inflation. Since there has been interest in this topic, I figured I’d pass it along, even though I’m not wild about it. I’m not saying it’s wrong. Not saying it’s right. I’m just not convinced it’s up to snuff:
First thng that got my hackles up, the authors wrote this:
“Specifically, markups grew by 3.4 percent over the year, whereas inflation, as measured by the price index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), was 5.8 percent, suggesting that markups could account for more than half of 2021 inflation.”
What we have here is a case of ignoring composition. That statement just compares one number to another, without giving any attention to what they represent. If markup is 50% (pretty standard), then a 3.4% rise in markup would acount for a 1.7% rise in retail price. That’s not close to half of 5.4%. So I don’t trust these guys.
Beyond that, their “Section III” amounts to a demonstration of what might account for a pattern of markups that they estimate, after admitting that markups aren’t really observable. If markeups aren’t observable, the foundation of their claim about what caused a rise in markups is shakey.
So the markups they estimate don’t account for half of inflation in 2021, and their model may explan the driver of markus in 2021, but also may not. Enjoy.
pgl
Josh Bivens noticed this recent accounting. And that is all it is – accounting. Bivens noted that this time was quite different from what we have seen over the past 40 years.
JohnH
Only an idiot would assume that Corporate America would not respond to a golden opportunity presented to it on a silver platter.
As Galbraith said, “ In normal times, with general price stability, these are stabilized by convention and habit, by the economic equivalent of good manners. Businesses are cautious about antagonizing their customers; they do not like to acquire the reputation of a price gouger. (This is why, for instance, hardware stores do not generally jack up the price of plywood when a hurricane is on the way). But in a general melee, with prices going up all around, a different mentality sets in, an impulse to grab what one can, and not be the sucker left behind. An inflation driven by profits (Bivens 2022), not wages, can therefore reverberate for some time. Unlike a wage spiral, a profit spiral gets little media attention and policy response – for obvious reasons.” https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/02/james-galbraith-the-quasi-inflation-of-2021-2022-a-case-of-bad-analysis-and-worse-response.html
Only the vast majority of economists in the IGM survey would think that business is not opportunistic and willing to change its behavior, given half a chance to boost margins!
Speaking of Corporate America’s opportunistic behavior when it comes to fixing prices increasing margins, companies, here’s a development that pgl and Ducky would prefer not to know about (for obvious reasons): “ After years of consolidation, US industries are now using advances in algorithms and the speed of data sharing to remove any vestige of market forces that are supposed to keep prices down.
As Galbraith said??? One more time loser. READ what Bivens wrote about his own evidence. Oh wait – it does not fit your little soap box. So go ahead and ignore everything else. It is what you do.
pgl
“After years of consolidation, US industries are now using advances in algorithms and the speed of data sharing to remove any vestige of market forces that are supposed to keep prices down. In attempts to maneuver around antitrust restrictions, companies turn to data firms offering software that helps increase profits. How? By exchanging information with competitors in order to keep wages low and prices high – effectively creating national cartels.”
OK Jonny boy – something productive. Call DoJ and the FTC and offer up your “expertise” to help them enforcement the anti-trust laws. I know a few of their economists. They need a real laugh and your stupidity fits the bill!
Macroduck
Here’s Johnny, once again pretending to know what economists think. Wall-to-wall straw maen and red herrings.
Johnny, instead of pretending that real economists are as small-minded as you are, how about you tell us what you think. In detail, not just “I think corporations are greedy” sorts of stuff.
‘Cause here’s what I think. You don’t have any ideas. You rely on spite and debating gimmicks. You make noise and toss dust in the air to hide the fact that you don’t have any ideas, any knowledge, or any real interest in learning. You’re a poser and nothing more.
pgl
David Autor, who is certainly not a corporate homey, noted market concentration has not risen recently. Josh Bivens who is not corporate homey offered a different interpretation of the data Jonny boy cites and since Bivens compiled this data one would think Jonny boy would address what Bivens wrote. But no Jonny cannot be bothered. You noted another discussion of the data, which I read and commented on. Did Jonny boy bother to read that discussion – of course not.
Jonny boy never does real economics. I guess that would get in the way of his hurling stupid and dishonest insults, which seems to be the only thing Jonny boy knows how to do.
pgl
“You make noise and toss dust in the air to hide the fact that you don’t have any ideas, any knowledge, or any real interest in learning.”
I gave Jonny boy a link to Contemporary Labor Economics, 12th edition which is the leading text in labor economics. I asked Jonny boy to go read this book but we know this troll will never do so. After all – understanding modern labor economics has never been something Jonny boy cares about.
JohnH
Hey, Ducky. I claim to know what economists think because they were surveyed by IGM, and the vast majority said that corporations were not a significant factor in driving inflation! And many based their opinion on the observation that business, despite their concentrated power, had not behaved that way before!!!
So, Ducky, why are you and so many other economists so intent on protecting Corporate America? How about being impartial “scientists” for a change?
JohnH
Bivens wrote, clearly and unambiguously, that “ Corporate profits have contributed disproportionately to inflation. ”
pgl refuses to accept Bivens’ basic point and insists on changing the subject to obscure Bivens’ main point.
Too bad it didn’t work out. Real median wages are back to where they were in 2019. Whatever investments businesses made in increased productivity, it didn’t help wages, following the pattern of the past half century. And, as researchers at the Dallas Fed documented, “More workers find their wages falling even further behind inflation.” https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/1004
Did pgl have some specific point he wanted to make about Autor?
And if Ducky is concerned about composition of increased profit margins, he might also consider that composition also matters in wages—in 2021 real wages rose…but only for the top 10%. https://www.epi.org/publication/inequality-2021-ssa-data/
pgl
JohnH
February 9, 2023 at 5:25 pm
More evidence of what you said. Jonny boy has never been interested in an honest or intelligent discussion.
pgl
JohnH
February 9, 2023 at 6:14 pm
Autor had a nice, hopeful piece in the NY Times about the benefits of a tight labor market.
Oh gee – now Jonny boy points us to David Autor. Too bad Jonny boy could not read what Autor said in response to his new survey query where he bashes Autor as if he is a corporate homey. The more Jonny boy comments – the more the grownups get why the kiddies are laughing at him.
pgl
“JohnH
February 9, 2023 at 5:35 pm
Bivens wrote, clearly and unambiguously, that “ Corporate profits have contributed disproportionately to inflation. ”
pgl refuses to accept Bivens’ basic point and insists on changing the subject to obscure Bivens’ main point.
Jonny boy blatantly lying about a conversation. I READ the entire Bivens discussion. Jonny cherry picks a single line and asserts he is the one who is accurately conveying Biven’s discussion? Hey Jonny boy – now the retarded rocks are laughingi at you.
pgl
‘Markups can change over time for many reasons, including firms’ expectations for their marginal costs in the future … the timing and cross-industry patterns of markup growth are more consistent with firms raising prices in anticipation of future cost increases, rather than an increase in monopoly power or higher demand.’
Caveats you never hear from Nobel Prize winning economist JohnH.
JohnH
Pgl and Maco showing their corporate-friendly yet again.
Ducky is concerned about composition of profit margins but shows little in composition of wage gains…which mostly went to the usual suspects.
But it is a sign of real progress when Ducky actually notices a study about rising profit margins’ contribution to inflation!
pgl
You are the most disgusting lying troll I have ever seen. Macroduck is a progressive. Neither he nor I are bought and paid for by anyone. The difference little boy is both of us have a brain. You clearly do not.
Those lines of yours should get you banned from any public forum. Especially since you are the one bought and paid for by Putin the war criminal.
Macroduck
Wait…you think I’m corporate friendly? Boy, you really haven’t got a clue.
Seriously, you might want to stop talking about your private boogey men and start talking to actual people.
pgl
The problem is that actual people start laughing out loud as soon as Jonny boy opens his mouth.
Bruce Halll
Well, that was interesting. You accused pgl and Macroduck of being corporate friendly and the protestations that they were progressive and anti-capitalist left right out of their replies.
Bruce Hall
“Leapt” but left works too. 😉
Aside, technology is great, but to replace a battery onnna MacBook Pro, you have to give up your computer for a week and type on an iPhone or old iPad. 🙁
pgl
I get the sense that your preK teacher is about to call the police. Look – they already have one retarded crying little baby (JohnH) to deal with and now Brucie baby is crying that his diaper is wet. Give the lady a break.
JohnH
The part that business-friendly pgl conveniently covered up—Bivens: “ a chronic excess of corporate power has built up over a long period of time, and it manifested in the current recovery as an inflationary surge in prices.”
pgl
Dude – I have noted how markets are concentrated for a long time. The point a lot of smart people (which excludes you) make is that inflation remained below 2% for most of the period. But at least you finally read Bivens long enough to cherry pick and misrepresent what he said.
JohnH
Morningstar: “Recession or not, Wall Street still expects inflation to produce record profit margins, with more on the way…
The record profit margins occurred amid record inflation, suggesting companies were benefiting from the higher prices handed down to consumers instead of attempting to catch up with increased costs — the reason many executives have cited for hiking prices.
Of course, as the article pointed out, expected increases in margins may not materialise, but they’ll probably be robust enough for pgl to hold onto his portfolio and maybe invest in more stocks.
pgl
Jonny boy is now quote a corporate homey at Morningstar. Yea – he has no pride. No pride at all.
pgl
Did Jonny boy forget to keep reading again?
“Still, forecasts for future profit margins are already falling, and will likely continue to decline as early optimism gives way to more clarity on corporations’ actual financial results later on. Wall Street expected annual profit margins to hit 13% in 2022 early in the year. But that target, as well as the expectations for future years, declined throughout. Analysts in recent weeks have already grown more pessimistic about companies’ earnings per share for the first half of this year.”
Or maybe he did read this but in his usual style, Jonny boy cherry picked what he wanted as he lied about what his own link said.
joseph
It’s pretty interesting in the their Twitter Inquisition today that every Republican on the committee made reference to their friend Elon Musk. It’s clear that they consider Musk to be their new Rupert Murdock and Twitter to be their new Fox News. And Musk’s actions are doing nothing to disabuse them of that notion.
Ivan
No surprise since Musk had revealed attempts of democrats to have tweets removed but hidden a much larger influencing campaign from GOP members. Classic right wing move from Musk – if the facts don’t fit your narrative, just hide the facts. But poorly coordinated since GOP appeared somewhat surprised that it turns out their people had been much worse than any cherry-picked examples of democrats trying to influence twitter.
pgl
And Turley claims he can rely on this cherry pick set of information to opine on the legal issues. Seriously? How does Georgetown let this clown teach law students?
pgl
Did you see where Jonathan Turley is whining that the Democrats called this loser on his BS? Georgetown needs to fire Turley.
David O’Rear
My go-to measure is interest + principle repayments due within one year / fiscal inflows.
If ya can’t pay the bills … ?
(And, never, ever, compare federal budgets to hose of a household.)
Macroduck
Let us remember that, for a brief, shining moment (2000), federal debt outstanding actually fell:
Greenspan freaked out about the government being forced to buy private assets (horrors!) in the Oh! So near future! So Bush convinced a reluctant electorate (seriously) that we needed tax cuts to avoid this evil future. But don’t worry, ’cause Social Security’s Trust Fund was in a lock box, you see…
Neither the Bush tax cut nor the Trump tax cut were ever able to pay for themselves or show any evidence of an increase in productive investment or in trend growth, and the government ended up buying private assets anyway by the end of the Bush administration,
but those tax cuts certainly have made for some fun debt-ceiling adventures!
Moses Herzog
@ Menzie
Menzie, as you might guess, some of the math here went over my head. But I found this guy over on Youtube (OK, yeah, you can make a joke here about me watching too many YT videos, I won’t be offended). It seemed to go against or contradict everything I have ever learned about “e” or Log. Do you have any thoughts on this??~~If Huntington-Klein is full of crap or if he’s raising something worthy here?? https://arxiv.org/pdf/2106.03070.pdf
Interesting that the chart in this post starts in 2015. Might have a different perspective if it began in, oh, 2008. The idea of massive government spending (and increasing debt to GDP) wasn’t unique to 2020 when the Democratic Party controlled Congress passed the CARES act.
But, hey, Trump etc.
pgl
“Might have a different perspective if it began in, oh, 2008.”
Why start then? Bush43 gave us fiscal irresponsibility and then handed Obama the Great Recession. Huh – Trump gave us fiscal irresponsibility and handed Biden the pandemic disaster.
Of course any honest picture would go back to what happened in the 1980’s under St. Reagan.
Then again if you ever made an honest comment in your worthless trolling life, Kelly Anne Conway would fire you.
pgl
Bruce Hall wants you to believe that Obama gave us a massive increase in government spending. FRED disagrees:
Brucie loves to lie a lot – doesn’t he? Then again Brucie gets all pissy when we call him on his blatant lies.
Bruce Hall
You can always find a new perspective can’t you? But the topic of this post was debt to GDP ratio. Try again.
pgl
WTF? YOU were the one who falsely claimed government spending rose a lot under Obama. And when I show that you LIED – this is your little whining. Come on Brucie – grow up. The other kiddies are all mocking you.
Bruce Hall
I presume you can read the Fed graph so if spending didn’t go up rapidly under Obama, why did the debt to GDP ratio rise so quickly? Are you suggesting that tax revenue didn’t rise for four years?
pgl
Bruce Hall
February 9, 2023 at 6:33 pm
I presume you can read the Fed graph so if spending didn’t go up rapidly under Obama, why did the debt to GDP ratio rise so quickly? Are you suggesting that tax revenue didn’t rise for four years?
Brucie, Brucie, Brucie. I guess you never heard of the Great Recession which Obama inherited from Bush43? Guess what happens to tax revenues when real GDP nose dives. BTW – we did recover from this Bush43 disaster and guess what happened to tax revenues for the rest of his 8 year tenure?
Any more of the dumbest comments from the peanut gallery?
Huh taxes went up while spending went down under Obama. But Trump fixed all that by increasing spending and reducing taxes.
But in Brucie’s world spending relative to taxes has nothing to do with the deficit. Yea – this little troll is that effing STUPID.
Macroduck
Oh, by all means , let’s ignore causation. Debt/GDP is arises from the mist, unrelated to tax or spending policy. Sure, Brucey.
Bruce Hall
Oh, I absolutely agree with you Macro. Under Obama, government spending rose much faster than GDP for the first four years. How else would the debt/GDP ratio increase so rapidly.
pgl
Bruce Hall
February 9, 2023 at 6:37 pm
Oh, I absolutely agree with you Macro. Under Obama, government spending rose much faster than GDP for the first four years. How else would the debt/GDP ratio increase so rapidly.
Repeat after me. The Great Recession. Write this on the chalk board 100 times and then tell us what happens to tax revenues during a massive recession created under Bush43.
Gee Brucie – we knew you were the dumbest troll God ever created so just relax. DAMN!
pgl
“Bruce Hall
February 9, 2023 at 6:37 pm
Oh, I absolutely agree with you Macro. Under Obama, government spending rose much faster than GDP for the first four years. How else would the debt/GDP ratio increase so rapidly.”
It shows a massive decline in tax revenues that were the result of the Great Recession. But Brucie still thinks the only way a deficit could rise is some alleged rise in government spending (spending actually fell under Obama as I noted before to Brucie boy).
Now I ask you – does this troll not know how to READ? Or does not get the basic concepts? Now I have accused this troll of being a serial liar as I could never imagine anyone could be THIS STUPID. But maybe I’m wrong – Brucie does strike me as dumber than a retarded rock.
Noneconomist
You can’t say Bruce doesn’t know his history. His keen mind recalls all 96 Democrats in the U.S. Senate succeeded in passing the act by a 96-0 vote. The legislation was passed by a voice vote in the House (despite vigorous opposition from all 217 Republicans) and signed into law March 27(?) 2020 by leftist President Nancy Pelosi.
pgl
Brucie also thinks talking about things like government spend and taxes has nothing to do with the deficit. I would ask could anyone be more dumb? But we already know Brucie can and will be dumber and dumber.
Bruce Hall
Don’t be a clown and a liar. Or are just unable to read? Cite where I wrote that debt and deficits have nothing to do with spending.
pgl
Oh – don’t be Bruce Hall. Good idea!
pgl
If you have not already noticed, Bruce Hall has decided to lap the other lying trolls here for the 2023 Contest for Dumbest Troll of the Year. Yea – one blatant lie after another on fiscal policy over the years. But Brucie has decided to revisit his incredibly stupid, dishonest, and rather dangerous intellectual garbage with respect to COVID-19.
Now this kind of stupid dishonesty would get Brucie boy banned from most blogs. But hey – this is a rather tolerant place, which I guess gives us the ability to laugh out loud at how weak and transparent Brucie’s dishonesty really is. But could we please not have the sad pathetic excuse of a human being whine that we are being mean to him? DAMN!
Bruce Hall
You make a lot of troll-like comments without being able to back them up. How about actually contributing something?
Ever hear of the ad hominem fallacy?
pgl
Excuse me troll – but I have backed up how you are a moron and a liar almost as much as Trump lies. Stop being such a whiney little boy.
pgl
‘Bruce Hall
February 9, 2023 at 6:46 pm
Would you accept that Johns Hopkins is a credible source of information?’
You dared to write that AFTER I pointed out what Snopes exposed? See my reply to Dr. Chinn’s comment. You have no integrity. None at all.
pgl
Audible reckoning: How top political podcasters spread unsubstantiated and false claims
Due in large part to the say-whatever-you-want perceptions of the medium, podcasting offers a critical avenue through which unsubstantiated and false claims proliferate. As the terms are used in this report, the terms “false claims,” “misleading claims,” “unsubstantiated claims” or any combination thereof are evaluations by the research team of the underlying statements and assertions grounded in the methodology laid out below in the research design section and appendices. Such claims, evidence suggests, have played a vital role in shaping public opinion and political behavior.5 Despite these risks, the podcasting ecosystem and its role in political debates have received little attention for a variety of reasons, including the technical difficulties in analyzing multi-hour, audio-based content and misconceptions about the medium.6 Yet understanding the scope of this challenge is critically important. Using a combination of analytical methods – including natural language processing, machine learning, and manual classifying – this research provided the first overarching assessment of the role that popular political podcasting plays in spreading unsubstantiated and false claims. These podcasters, who span the political spectrum, make up the mainstream of the medium and regularly boast audiences in the millions. Drawing on data collected from 36,603 episodes produced by 79 prominent political podcasters, 17,061 evaluations, and 184 key terms and phrases, this analysis found:
Their findings note how the MAGA crowd are the leaders in disinformation. Steve Bannon who leads this list is proud that his podcast is the leader in lies.
Huh – Brookings should monitor the trolls here. I bet Bruce Hall would lead this list. And of course Brucie boy is proud that he is a serial liar!
pgl
During the first two years of the coronavirus pandemic, unsubstantiated and false claims circulated widely, but they tended to be more nuanced and less partisan than election-related claims: Unsubstantiated and false claims tied to the pandemic featured in one out of every eight episodes examined during this period. These claims, however, tended to be less overtly partisan and were often rooted in misunderstandings of science, confusion over evolving public health guidelines, and a heavy reliance on non-peer reviewed preprints.
That’s our Brucie boy!
Bruce Hall
Would you accept that Johns Hopkins is a credible source of information?
Bruce Hall: Would you accept UW-Madison is a credible source of information? And yet you take issue with a professor at UW-Madison. Do you understand the distinction?
pgl
Check out who really wrote Bruce Hall’s latest fraud:
After I pointed this out – he dares come here and argues it was a credible John Hopkins study? I probably should not question Brucie’s integrity as he clearly has none.
pgl
I guess you just skipped the Snopes expose of how this was not peer reviewed or a Johns Hopkins study. But thanks for reminding us of what a liar you are.
Gregory Bott
Because they are globalists. Give up the maga term. Its the same old “New Right” con since 1979 when they officially began their move. The only difference between Steve Bannon and Dick Cheney is Cheney has some ounce of respect for democracy left.
Ivan
Just in case any body thought Elon Musk was a hero fighting for freedom.
He is not! He even blocked the use of his satellite phones by Ukraine beyond the invasion borders set by Russia and advocated by Musk.
pgl
“It was never intended to be weaponized,” Shotwell told an audience at a space conference. “However, Ukrainians have leveraged it in ways that were unintentional and not part of any agreement.”
So self defense is a bad thing? But if Putin used this to promote war crimes, Musk would have no problem with that? What a jerk.
Anonymous
how do you define ‘fighting for freedom’’?
can RF forces use the starling in the areas?
Macroduck
Fighting for freedom? Well, when a foreign military invades a sovereign country and the residents of that country fight back, that might be “fighting for freedom”.
“RF” and “starling” are not terms I’ve seen in the universal declaration of human rights, so I’m not sure what your second sentence has to do with your first sentence. Seems more like something you picked up in an echo-chamber chat roim.
Ivan
The comment was clearly created by an AI chat-troll-bot (very “A” and not “I” at all). Don’t expect it to have any of the basic concepts encoded, its in pre-beta-testing mode.
Anonymous
you are very legal aren’t you.
what career is there to implying a legal or moral bent
to obscure the friction of empire
btw I took a dod paycheck for more than 30 years and I won’t lie that I saw any freedom fighting from it
pgl
For some stupid reason, JohnH likes to call people Joseph McCarthy. Yea this disgusting troll has no clue who McCarthy even was. Well Jim Jordan is going to be today’s version of the junior Senator from Wisconsin:
The House “Weaponization of the Federal Government” subcommittee is holding its first hearing.
The White House likened it to a “reboot of McCarthyism” designed to help Republicans get on Fox News.
The hearing will cover “the politicization of the FBI and DOJ and attacks on American civil liberties.”
House Republicans are launching a “reboot of McCarthyism” designed to help them get booked on Fox News, the White House said ahead of the “Weaponization of the Federal Government” subcommittee’s first hearing.
A memo released Thursday compared the committee to the notorious House Un-American Activities Committee, established in 1938 to investigate disloyalty and subversive activities, as it meets for a hearing on “the politicization of the FBI and DOJ and attacks on American civil liberties.”
Anonymous
extremism in limiting the use of federal muscle on individual Liberty is no vice
pgl
Barry Goldwater’s family should sue your pathetic rear end for that.
Ivan
Its kind of interesting to see the GOP attacking our “security” agencies. GOP has always been the authoritarians who wanted those institutions strong (to keep the plebs under control). But I guess they had run out of steam in trying to panic and scare their minions about the 200 antifa “rebellions” in Portland. You have to give them that the FBI and DOJ are potentially scary given their size and power. However, those agencies are full of right leaning conservatives who may just switch party if they find themselves attacked and vilified by the GOP. So in their desperate attempts to keep the base scared blind they may end up alienating yet another group of supporters.
Roughly 600 mobilized Russian soldiers in the Luhansk region refused to fight on the frontlines of Ukraine and were returned to Russia according to a report from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Now if more Russian soldiers refuse to fight – this horrific war will be over.
pgl
Senator Mike Lee is trying to deny he wants to eliminate Social Security and Medicare. Huh – so who was this back 13 years ago?
The Chinese spy balloon shot down by the U.S. military over the Atlantic Ocean was capable of collecting communications signals and was part of a fleet of surveillance balloons directed by the Chinese military that had flown over more than 40 countries across five continents, the State Department said Thursday….The agency said the balloon had multiple antennas in an array that was “likely capable of collecting and geo-locating communications.” Solar panels on the machine were large enough to produce power to operate “multiple active intelligence collection sensors,” the department said.
pgl
We rely on the Big Four accounting firms to be honest about the financials for multinationals including their effective tax rates. Multinationals often rely on the Big Four to devise all sorts of means to shift profits abroad to evade income taxes. What could go wrong? I was trying to understand some fight between Perrigo and the IRS over one of these tax dodge schemes only to find this story about how E&Y may have failed in its responsibility as financial auditor:
Court documents show the potential conflicts of interest when accounting firms simultaneously help clients avoid taxes and audit their finances. The drug company Perrigo had a problem. Consultants at the giant advisory firm EY had devised an elaborate arrangement that would allow Perrigo, one of the country’s leading makers of nonprescription drugs, to avoid more than $100 million in federal taxes. But the company’s outside auditors, at the accounting firm BDO, were questioning the setup’s propriety. Perrigo soon replaced BDO with EY as its auditor. At least one EY official, too, expressed concern that the tax shelter his colleagues had designed was overly aggressive. Even so, auditors at EY, also known as Ernst & Young, eventually blessed the transactions, which federal authorities now claim were shams, according to previously unreported documents made public in a court case last year. Accountants have a reputation as bean counters. In reality, their audits are a linchpin of global capitalism: Investors need to be able to trust that companies’ numbers are reliable and have been reviewed by credible outsiders. Having a reputable auditing firm sign off on your financial statements is therefore a prerequisite to being listed on a major stock exchange and attracting significant investments.
Read the whole story as it is excellent reporting on some deal to produce generic antacids where the US distributor purchased products made in Israel and made sizeable profits which magically got sourced in a tax haven. The issue has gone before a court and we can expect a decision soon. Yea Perrigo had a prominent transfer pricing economist spin their story but the IRS hired their experts as well. If the tax director and the CFO of Perrigo have heartburn over the mess they have created – maybe they should take their own drug.
Ivan
No wonder the GOP is being told by their corporate overlords to cut the IRS budget.
pgl
Perrigo has lots of court cases with not only the IRS but also the Israeli tax authorities over blatant income shifting. I guess their lawyers are getting rich but do not go long on this particular stock.
I still think she would make a great VP candidate on a Democrat presidential ticket. Or even President if she feels she can pull in the votes. Just a huge fan of hers.
Or CIA, Sec of Defense, Susan Rice can do many jobs and not just do them, do them with excellence
baffling
I like rice. I believe she enjoys and is good at public service. I don’t believe she is interested in “election” politics. I don’t think her personality makes her electable, meaning she is not willing to talk out of both sides of her mouth to achieve winning an election. so she will continue to serve her country in appointed positions, not elected positions. fine by me. everybody contributes in their own special way.
Manfred
In the long list of comments nobody pointed out that from 2021Q2 to 2022Q3 nominal GDP increased faster than the debt held by the public.
Nominal GDP increased faster because of inflation, which means that the public is holding more devalued debt.
In other words, the federal government is taking advantage of high inflation to dilute debt.
Not sure this is something the cheerleaders of this administration should celebrate.
pgl
Manfred translated – real interest rates are too low. Gee Manfred – maybe you want the FED to jack up real interest rates to 10%!
Or maybe you never read Irving Fisher’s 1907 classic?
pgl
“the federal government is taking advantage of high inflation”
What a dumb statement. It seems that the government is reducing that transitory rise in inflation. Some taking advantage.
Love it. When are we going to see this graph over at https://www.hoover.org ???
Bueller…… ?? Bueller…… ?? Bueller…..? James Hamilton….. ?? James Hamilton……. ?? James Hamilton…… ??
Gee – I see your favorite boy Jonny Cochrane penned some nonsense called
A Consumption Tax Is the Shock Our Broken System Needs
Rep. Carter’s ‘Fair Tax’ would fund the government with fewer economic distortions than estate and income taxes.
No I have not read this garbage yet but I’m sure he concluded with Let Them Eat Cake.
Of course Johnny Cuckrant loves it. It’s a regressive tax. He’d probably insist it be assessed on bread and peanut butter and excluded on luxury items. I won’t read what he penned either, for personal health reasons, because getting extremely angry raises your blood pressure. Johnny Cuckrant is sick~~a narcissistic sociopath on George Santos levels. He should be put in the closest mental institution to his home in complete isolation in a room that has no bed furnished with 3-4 sharp objects placed on a small coffee table with a large posterboard taped to the wall that says “Go ahead and do it”.
I just saw a discussion on LinkedIn where some supposed big shot was telling all his rich corporate buddies that this sales tax idea was the cat’s meow. Turns out he wrote something for the Financial Post which was your usual blah, blah, blah. So I decided to check out his professional background. Yea you guessed it – a partner at accounting firm that makes money helping fat cats evade income taxes. Such a waste.
Estate taxes are distortionate? (Scratches head…)
Well maybe it encourages rich old farts to delay their own death. Besides if your estate is worth $500 million – you can always get some hack appraiser to say it is worth only $100 million.
If Johnny Cuckrant actually cared about things that were truly distortional, he’d be touring the country railing against “Medicare Advantage”.
Public Service Announcement:
“Medicare Advantage” is NOT Medicare. It is a scam intended to make HMOs and insurers rich off of Seniors’ life savings. Thanks for your time.
Why is economics the only science where flat-earthers like Cochrane are regarded as experts by a significant segment of the profession?
Physics has no professors claiming that Newton’s laws are bogus or that Einstein knew nothing. But in economics there is no core consensus. It is just a free-for-all of opinions untethered to history for many professionals.
Being proved obviously wrong is of no consequence, i.e., Larry Summers, June 2022:
“We need five years of unemployment above 5 percent to contain inflation—in other words, we need two years of 7.5 percent unemployment or five years of 6 percent unemployment or one year of 10 percent unemployment,” Summers said during a speech at the London School of Economics. He added that the numbers were “remarkably discouraging” compared with the predictions of Federal Reserve leaders, who have suggested they can bring down inflation without pushing unemployment much above 4 percent.
In fairness to “orthodox” economists, I would venture to say many consider Cuckrant more heterodox~~or worse. He’s more respected in finance circles than he is the economics profession. But maybe Professor Chinn or Prof Hamilton or whatever credentialed economist can chime in and correct me if I have that wrong.
“Why is economics the only science where flat-earthers like Cochrane are regarded as experts by a significant segment of the profession?”
because you do not have an effective cudgel . the pessimistic view is that money has not infiltrated the physics profession the way it has infiltrated the economics profession. as can be seen in economics, everybody seems to have a price at which they can be bought. lots of money flowing into the pockets of all these “think tanks” in the economics world. most of them are simply propaganda machines. I don’t see that happening in physics. although on a second thought, when you consider all the physics phd’s who moved into the world of quant financing, maybe my statements are not quite as accurate.
Baffled claims: ” the pessimistic view is that money has not infiltrated the physics profession the way it has infiltrated the economics profession. … I don’t see that happening in physics.”
Except for those doing the Climate Studies and models?????
CoRev
February 9, 2023 at 9:04 am
CoRev notes that the climate change debate is infiltrated by lying trolls like CoRev.
Hey CoRev – go back to misrepresenting ag econ as in your stupid soybean comments.
This idea that the money is on the side of legitimate climate science rather than on the side of climate-change deniers is in the same class as claims that tobacco is good for your lungs or that Pelosi drinks baby blood.
And here’s CoVid, repeating the most obvious lie in the fake science playbook. Thanks for being so transparently dishonest.
Not one of you naysayers has refuted the comment. Indeed, even MD has backhandedly confirmed the money comment: “This idea that the money is on the side of legitimate climate science rather than on the side of climate-change deniers ” Just this US Agency in its grant awards shows the disparity: https://www.epa.gov/research-grants/climate-change-research-grants”
“Open Grants
These climate change research grants are currently open or have been awarded within the past ten years.
Air, Climate and Energy (ACE) Centers: Science Supporting Solutions
Particulate Matter and Related Pollutants in a Changing World
Closed Grants
National Priorities: Systems-Based Strategies to Improve the Nation’s Ability to Plan and Respond to Water Scarcity and Drought Due to Climate Change
Indoor Air and Climate Change
Anthropogenic Influences on Organic Aerosol Formation and Regional Climate Implications
Measurements and Modeling for Quantifying Air Quality and Climatic Impacts of Residential Biomass or Coal Combustion for Cooking, Heating, and Lighting
Extreme Event Impacts on Air Quality and Water Quality with a Changing Global Climate
Source Attribution of Radiative Forcing in Chemical Transport
Black Carbons Role In Global To Local Scale Climate And Air Quality”
Anyone notice any non-anthropocentric studies? Even the most innocuous, apparently nature-centric studies concentrate on anthropogenic impacts.
But to make this determination they must be read by the igrnoranti.
CoRev
February 10, 2023 at 4:27 am
Not one of you naysayers has refuted the comment.
Ah CoRev – that is because NO ONE here gives a hoot about your stupid little rants. Go find a right wing blog where people are dumb enough to think your rants are insightful.
Did it ever occur to the idiot that anthropogenic pollutants are fixable because we cause them? Therefore that is a natural area for somebody to study, because it is certainly an area that humans can impact. Covid, your comments get sillier everyday day. But coming from a fool who thinks we should further study ivermectin to cure covid, it is no surprise you fail to understand the link between why a particular item should or should not be studied. You cant make this stuff up folks. Covid is proof these people do actually exist. Darwin does work, just at a very slow pace.
three law in philosophy: physical, manmade, and divine.
okay only two now.
difference manmade to physical: no one has disproved law of gravity since one fell on Isaac. all kinds of experiments yield observations to support Einstein in relativity. models describing newton, and Einstein are tested by experiment and validated and verified.
manmade law enjoy little use unverifiable models, and correlation w/o validation by causation.
economics fits more to manmade rather than physical.
I can say gravity is the law, but I cannot say what jpow thinks is law…
that is predicts an if then….descriptive models in Econ have no v&v like in physics.
Demand causes investment causes supply to meet demand. That is true law. The opposite is not true.
But the econ profession is not unanimous.
I like to look at interest on the debt as a percentage of GDP. Debt burden is much lower than during the Reagan years. Even lower if you consider that the Fed currently owns about a quarter of the debt and refunds its interest to the Treasury.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYOIGDA188S
“Debt burden is much lower than during the Reagan years. Even lower if you consider that the Fed currently owns about a quarter of the debt and refunds its interest to the Treasury.”
This went from more than 3% to less than 2% now. A point Bruce Hall loves to deny. Then again Brucie is chief economist for Kelly Anne Alternative Facts Conway.
This is where roll-over matters. The weighted average maturity of Treasury debt outstanding, at 74 months, is the highest on record, and is projected to increase further. As debt is rolled over in the new, higher interest rate environment, the interest rate burden will increase.
I can’t find a link, but if you query “Treasury Presentation to TBAC January 2023”, you’ll get a complete look at Treasury’s expectations for future borrowing needs, interest rates and so on.
The interest rate environment is critical to the debt burden, public and private. A look at the drivers of interest rates – inflation, demographics, structural demand for debt – would be worth the effort.
I should have written more clearly. A long weighted average maturity will help keep the interest costs down for a while, because it slows roll-over in a higher interest-rate environment. In the longer term, longer average maturity increases borrowing costs, assuming an upward-sloping yield curve.
In fact, an inverted curve and a return to negative term premium says Treasury should be issuing long right now. Of course, with the debt ceiling having been reached, Treasury doesn’t have much choice about the maturity of its issuance.
Gee – I see your favorite boy Jonny Cochrane penned some nonsense called
A Consumption Tax Is the Shock Our Broken System Needs
Rep. Carter’s ‘Fair Tax’ would fund the government with fewer economic distortions than estate and income taxes.
No I have not read this garbage yet but I’m sure he concluded with Let Them Eat Cake.
Menzie Chinn,
Not sure what you’re “sayin’” here either. So I’ll bite and try to make this interesting…
What are your thoughts on those (e.g. Jason Furman and presumably others) who say debt:gdp is a problematic fiscal metric and that net interest/gdp is a better metric?
This is why I wish Econned could have the decency to provide links:
https://economics.princeton.edu/events/jason-furman-on-when-if-ever-should-we-worry-about-the-debt/#:~:text=Furman%E2%80%99s%20%E2%80%9Ctentative%20framework%E2%80%9D%20for%20fiscal%20policy%20works%20toward,be%20a%20combination%20of%20optimal%2C%20understandable%2C%20and%20achievable.
Debt to GDP is a misleading metric for assessing the sustainability of fiscal trajectory and policymakers should instead look at real net interest as a share of GDP. Furman walks through several reasons why debt to GDP is a poor metric. First, this measure divides a stock by a flow variable, since debt is a stock, while GDP is a flow variable. Second, it does not reflect interest rates. Third, the metric is backward-looking and doesn’t include what’s coming. Furman says looking at real interest payments as a share of debt is a much better metric as it reflects debt that is inflating away.
Furman’s “tentative framework” for fiscal policy works toward a goal where real interest does not exceed 1% of GDP in the coming decade. Or, by another metric, debt to GDP should be less than 150% or 200%. Furman says anything the U.S. does in the fiscal space needs to be a combination of optimal, understandable, and achievable.
A first discussion. Furman – like Milton Friedman, Tom Sargent & Neil Wallace, and Robert Barro over 40 years ago – talking about real (not nominal interest rates) which is just good economics. Bruce Hall – try to pay attention.
Depend on what you are trying to get a metric for.
Current or future burden, current of future risk (of increased burden), risk of $ value increase/decrease on exports, risk that morons will panic. There are many things that we may want to quantify and for which the total debt or interest payments (normalized to GDP) may be somewhat relevant numbers.
Ivan,
When and under which circumstances (aside from “risk that morons will panic” because any metric can make a moron panic) is debt:gdp useful as a fiscal metric? I think Furman makes great arguments that it’s an overused metric and others provide more insight on a nation’s fiscal stance.
Well – the most useful way of thinking about comes from the likes of Barro or Sargent & Wallace who would compare the present value of the non-interest government surplus to the current level of debt all relative to GDP. It is actually a simple model if one assumes a steady state where d = the debt/GDP ratio and the present value of future non-interest surpluses can be captured as:
(t – g)/(r – n) where r = the real interest rate, n = the growth rate of real GDP, t = taxes/GDP and g = government spending excluding interest/GDP.
Furman is right to focus on the real interest expense/GDP ratio being 1% or less but I wish he would been a bit more explicit of his underlying assumptions in terms of this time honored model.
The question should be what is the informational content of debt:gdp?
The debt is a measure of obligations being pushed into the future. The GDP is a measure of how big our productive capacity is. Both of those parameters comes with a textbook worth of caveats, presumptions and flaws. So if we ignore all of those, we would say that the ratio is a measure of how capable our economy is of “paying back” the obligations we previously committed to. The big question is why would we ever consider “paying back” given how much damage that insane act would do to our society and economy.
I have provided folks like Econned the basic finance framework, which requires one to specify how fast real GDP grows over time as well as the expected non-interest surplus/GDP is expected to evolve over time. I get Furman is providing part of this story by saying he is OK with real interest expenses/GDP being no more than 1% but without the other key parameters, one has to wonder how he came to this conclusion. Not saying he is wrong but I grade his essay as incomplete.
Ivan,
Thanks for the response. Yes, I agree with the question but the issue with debt:gdp to answer that question are numerous. For starters why look at current productive capacity to assess future obligations? Also, debt is backward looking and doesn’t reflect the future. And why use a flow to assess a stock? Why ignore interest rates?
gao 23-105586
FINANCIAL AUDIT; Bureau of the Fiscal, Service’s FY 2022 and FY 2021
Schedules of Federal Debt Nov 2022, pg 29
federal debt held by the public was $24.3T
federal interagency debt was $6.6T
as of 30 Sep 2022.
‘federal interagency debt was $6.6T’
consists of certain trust funds such as Social Security which Rick Scott wants to wipe out for more tax cuts for rich people. Biden called out Senator Scott and it seems Kevin McCarthy got concerned saying he agrees with Biden on this issue. We will see.
Confession – I did not stay up for the State of the Union address but I hear certain Republicans embarrassed themselves with heckling. I’m sure this got the tax cut for rich people party all upset:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/state-of-the-union-biden-challenges-republicans-on-debt-oil-companies-on-profits/ar-AA17fpZG
Assailing oil companies for making high profits and corporate America for taking advantage of consumers, Biden used his prime time speech to outline progressive priorities of his Democratic Party that are anathema to many Republican lawmakers.
Their 4th quarter results have not been released but I suspect Exxon will pass $400 billion in sales and $80 in profits before taxes for 2022. Yea – it is a big company. Now the debate seems to be should Exxon pay out more in dividends or use more of their profits to invest in new energy sources.
But wait – why are we taxing all of these profits at a mere 21% rate? I checked their 2021 10-K and it seems Exxon’s worldwide effective tax rate is closer to 25%. It seems most of Exxon’s profits are sourced abroad and foreign nations tend to hit these profits with not only their normal income tax rate but also an additional windfall profits tax. We should do the same.
I did not listen to Sarah Yuckabee Sanders either but I understand it may have been the most pathetic address ever:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sarah-huckabee-sanders-normal-or-crazy-challenge-backfires-spectacularly/ar-AA17eqZK?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ba57c8c3601b423c9df6ab4d51fafbf6
“The choice is no longer between right or left,” declared Sanders, former press secretary to Donald Trump. “The choice is between normal and crazy.” Many agreed ― just not in the way she was likely expecting as they pointed to her party’s own extremists, and in particular the wild behavior of conspiracy theorist Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) just minutes earlier during Biden’s speech.
Yea – that was dumb on her part. But that was not nearly the worse from little miss chubby. She actually had to the gall to suggest Democrats were teaching school kids to hate while Republicans were the party of love. Seriously? If one is black, Hispanic, Asian, gay, or anything other than Southern White Christians, people like Yuckabee preach hatred of you in the vilest of ways.
“Marjorie” is the new “Karen”.
Who knew??
Speaking of debt, Russia’s latest budget news is what honest people expected all along:
https://www.axios.com/2023/02/08/russias-budget-deficit-explodes-as-latest-sanctions-bite
this is why those without a political agenda have been preaching patience. the damage will come. and it will be long term. and the russian public will have to face the consequences. and determine whether putin is worth it.
Yes these are huge changes. Oil and gas revenues dropping 46%, while government outlays are up 56%. Even the $155 billion rainy day fund doesn’t sound that big with a deficit in January of $25 billion. Looks like Biden’s plan was brilliant and effective.
“Oil and gas revenues dropping 46%”
And this after Putin raised the profits tax rate on oil from 20% to 34%.
I did see somewhere that Russia is forced to sell at 50% discount ($40 rather than market price of $80pb). That would seriously cut profits, especially if the sanctions have increased the cost/ability to maintain production. So a bigger cut, but from a much smaller pie. Furthermore, the corruption in Russia is legendary, so I would not be surprised if the increased government % cut has increased cheating substantially. Lots of oilygarchs may be going “1 out of 5 dollars for the motherland is OK, but 1 out of 3, and after they stole my yacht – no way”.
Go to the 1:53 mark of this PBS hosted video and watch what they say about Republicans raising the debt ceiling.
https://ga.video.cdn.pbs.org/videos/newshour/2c462785-5f1a-4651-8ae6-782ee0bfb0db/2000337849/hd-16×9-mezzanine-1080p/gop-hls-16×9-1080p_425.m3u8
For those who are too lazy, the Republicans voted to raise the debt ceiling limit under donald trump THREE times. Funny how that Republican FAKE concern over the national debt works isn’t it?? It always kicks into high gear whenever Republicans lose the White House. THEN Republicans “care” about the national debt.
does not look like republicans are what you would call fiscally conservative when they own the government. even if you discount the pandemic, debt as percent of gdp was increasing under trump and republican leadership. why are we now sooooooo concerned about paying the debt limit, republicans? hypocrites.
Speaking of Russia, the IMF is less dour than Russia’s own forecasters:
https://intellinews.com/imf-issues-russian-economic-growth-outlook-that-is-more-optimistic-than-bank-of-russia-s-269012/?source=bne-credit
Enquiring minds want to know. Is Menzie Chinn in Deforest now, Dane County Airport, or is he in a traffic Jam??
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/elon-trump-twitter-files-collusion-biden-censorship-1234675969/
Twitter Kept Entire ‘Database’ of Republican Requests to Censor Posts
Elon Musk’s “Twitter Files” focus on Democrats, but former administration officials and Twitter employees say Trump’s team and other Republicans routinely demanded posts be taken down
Elon has a lot of splaining to do.
A rambling look at a narrow feature of a possible future for interest expense on the debt –
Part of the cost of the deficit – most of the time – is term premium. The technical definition of term premium has been covered here in the past, so I won’t bother, but in practical terms, uncertainty about future values of other drivers of interest rates end up in term premium. Term premium and volatility tend to go hand-in-hand*:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ZOvu
That’s because volatility amounts to risk, and risk has to be compensated.
It is generally assumed that the Fed ‘s accumulation of Treasury debt through quantitative easing has reduced volatility in the Treasury market, though other factors are also affect volatility. Here’ the picture:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ZOV8
Fed purchases of Treasury debt reduce interest rates directly by inducing scarcity, but also as reduced volatility reduces term premium:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ZOyV
Of course, this all runs in reverse when the Fed is shedding assets, as is now the case. Which is to say, there are now at least three channels through which the Fed is putting upward pressure on longer-term Treasury yields: 1) cost of funds; 2) supply, and; 3) volatility (term premium). Right now, that upward pressure is not showing up very clearly in term premium:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ZOYT
Assuming everything works normally as recession concerns subside (one way or another), term premium will eventually add to longer-term yields.
* Sorry for the truncated picture. This is the only version of Treasury market volatility I could find at FRED. The MOVE index can be found at any number of fine retail establishments, like this:
https://m.investing.com/indices/ice-bofaml-move-advanced-chart
As long as we’re discussing debt, we might as well discuss austerity:
https://www.marketplace.org/2023/02/08/does-austerity-have-a-hidden-agenda/
““The Capital Order: How Economists Invented Austerity and Paved the Way to Fascism,” and uses the historical record in Europe to argue that austerity — tightening the belt, cutting government programs — is less about budgets and debt and more about deliberately making the labor force feel insecure.”
Cameron’s austerity lowered UK real wages. Oh wait – JohnH said the opposite happened. Yea – he lied. What’s new? He is all for Putin’s fascism after all.
Funny! pgl complains about Cameron’s austerity but not Democratic deficit hawks’ austerity. pgl is a true partisan hack.
That stupid line was pathetic worthless snipe when you wrote it over and over again at Mark Thoma’s place. Come on Jonny boy – everyone here knows you are as dishonest and as dumb as it gets. Get a new line loser.
Another off topic comment, profits and inflation –
Researchers at the KC Fed have published a piece which addresses the topic of markups, monopoly power and inflation. Since there has been interest in this topic, I figured I’d pass it along, even though I’m not wild about it. I’m not saying it’s wrong. Not saying it’s right. I’m just not convinced it’s up to snuff:
https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/economic-review/how-much-have-record-corporate-profits-contributed-to-recent-inflation/
First thng that got my hackles up, the authors wrote this:
“Specifically, markups grew by 3.4 percent over the year, whereas inflation, as measured by the price index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), was 5.8 percent, suggesting that markups could account for more than half of 2021 inflation.”
What we have here is a case of ignoring composition. That statement just compares one number to another, without giving any attention to what they represent. If markup is 50% (pretty standard), then a 3.4% rise in markup would acount for a 1.7% rise in retail price. That’s not close to half of 5.4%. So I don’t trust these guys.
Beyond that, their “Section III” amounts to a demonstration of what might account for a pattern of markups that they estimate, after admitting that markups aren’t really observable. If markeups aren’t observable, the foundation of their claim about what caused a rise in markups is shakey.
So the markups they estimate don’t account for half of inflation in 2021, and their model may explan the driver of markus in 2021, but also may not. Enjoy.
Josh Bivens noticed this recent accounting. And that is all it is – accounting. Bivens noted that this time was quite different from what we have seen over the past 40 years.
Only an idiot would assume that Corporate America would not respond to a golden opportunity presented to it on a silver platter.
As Galbraith said, “ In normal times, with general price stability, these are stabilized by convention and habit, by the economic equivalent of good manners. Businesses are cautious about antagonizing their customers; they do not like to acquire the reputation of a price gouger. (This is why, for instance, hardware stores do not generally jack up the price of plywood when a hurricane is on the way). But in a general melee, with prices going up all around, a different mentality sets in, an impulse to grab what one can, and not be the sucker left behind. An inflation driven by profits (Bivens 2022), not wages, can therefore reverberate for some time. Unlike a wage spiral, a profit spiral gets little media attention and policy response – for obvious reasons.”
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/02/james-galbraith-the-quasi-inflation-of-2021-2022-a-case-of-bad-analysis-and-worse-response.html
Only the vast majority of economists in the IGM survey would think that business is not opportunistic and willing to change its behavior, given half a chance to boost margins!
Speaking of Corporate America’s opportunistic behavior when it comes to fixing prices increasing margins, companies, here’s a development that pgl and Ducky would prefer not to know about (for obvious reasons): “ After years of consolidation, US industries are now using advances in algorithms and the speed of data sharing to remove any vestige of market forces that are supposed to keep prices down.
In attempts to maneuver around antitrust restrictions, companies turn to data firms offering software that helps increase profits. How? By exchanging information with competitors in order to keep wages low and prices high – effectively creating national cartels.”
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/02/meatpacking-healthcare-housing-rentals-industries-across-the-board-using-new-technologies-to-fix-wages-and-prices.html
Free market RIP!
As Galbraith said??? One more time loser. READ what Bivens wrote about his own evidence. Oh wait – it does not fit your little soap box. So go ahead and ignore everything else. It is what you do.
“After years of consolidation, US industries are now using advances in algorithms and the speed of data sharing to remove any vestige of market forces that are supposed to keep prices down. In attempts to maneuver around antitrust restrictions, companies turn to data firms offering software that helps increase profits. How? By exchanging information with competitors in order to keep wages low and prices high – effectively creating national cartels.”
OK Jonny boy – something productive. Call DoJ and the FTC and offer up your “expertise” to help them enforcement the anti-trust laws. I know a few of their economists. They need a real laugh and your stupidity fits the bill!
Here’s Johnny, once again pretending to know what economists think. Wall-to-wall straw maen and red herrings.
Johnny, instead of pretending that real economists are as small-minded as you are, how about you tell us what you think. In detail, not just “I think corporations are greedy” sorts of stuff.
‘Cause here’s what I think. You don’t have any ideas. You rely on spite and debating gimmicks. You make noise and toss dust in the air to hide the fact that you don’t have any ideas, any knowledge, or any real interest in learning. You’re a poser and nothing more.
David Autor, who is certainly not a corporate homey, noted market concentration has not risen recently. Josh Bivens who is not corporate homey offered a different interpretation of the data Jonny boy cites and since Bivens compiled this data one would think Jonny boy would address what Bivens wrote. But no Jonny cannot be bothered. You noted another discussion of the data, which I read and commented on. Did Jonny boy bother to read that discussion – of course not.
Jonny boy never does real economics. I guess that would get in the way of his hurling stupid and dishonest insults, which seems to be the only thing Jonny boy knows how to do.
“You make noise and toss dust in the air to hide the fact that you don’t have any ideas, any knowledge, or any real interest in learning.”
I gave Jonny boy a link to Contemporary Labor Economics, 12th edition which is the leading text in labor economics. I asked Jonny boy to go read this book but we know this troll will never do so. After all – understanding modern labor economics has never been something Jonny boy cares about.
Hey, Ducky. I claim to know what economists think because they were surveyed by IGM, and the vast majority said that corporations were not a significant factor in driving inflation! And many based their opinion on the observation that business, despite their concentrated power, had not behaved that way before!!!
So, Ducky, why are you and so many other economists so intent on protecting Corporate America? How about being impartial “scientists” for a change?
Bivens wrote, clearly and unambiguously, that “ Corporate profits have contributed disproportionately to inflation. ”
pgl refuses to accept Bivens’ basic point and insists on changing the subject to obscure Bivens’ main point.
Autor had a nice, hopeful piece in the NY Times about the benefits of a tight labor market.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/04/opinion/labor-shortage-biden-covid.html
Too bad it didn’t work out. Real median wages are back to where they were in 2019. Whatever investments businesses made in increased productivity, it didn’t help wages, following the pattern of the past half century. And, as researchers at the Dallas Fed documented, “More workers find their wages falling even further behind inflation.” https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/1004
Did pgl have some specific point he wanted to make about Autor?
And if Ducky is concerned about composition of increased profit margins, he might also consider that composition also matters in wages—in 2021 real wages rose…but only for the top 10%. https://www.epi.org/publication/inequality-2021-ssa-data/
JohnH
February 9, 2023 at 5:25 pm
More evidence of what you said. Jonny boy has never been interested in an honest or intelligent discussion.
JohnH
February 9, 2023 at 6:14 pm
Autor had a nice, hopeful piece in the NY Times about the benefits of a tight labor market.
Oh gee – now Jonny boy points us to David Autor. Too bad Jonny boy could not read what Autor said in response to his new survey query where he bashes Autor as if he is a corporate homey. The more Jonny boy comments – the more the grownups get why the kiddies are laughing at him.
“JohnH
February 9, 2023 at 5:35 pm
Bivens wrote, clearly and unambiguously, that “ Corporate profits have contributed disproportionately to inflation. ”
pgl refuses to accept Bivens’ basic point and insists on changing the subject to obscure Bivens’ main point.
Jonny boy blatantly lying about a conversation. I READ the entire Bivens discussion. Jonny cherry picks a single line and asserts he is the one who is accurately conveying Biven’s discussion? Hey Jonny boy – now the retarded rocks are laughingi at you.
‘Markups can change over time for many reasons, including firms’ expectations for their marginal costs in the future … the timing and cross-industry patterns of markup growth are more consistent with firms raising prices in anticipation of future cost increases, rather than an increase in monopoly power or higher demand.’
Caveats you never hear from Nobel Prize winning economist JohnH.
Pgl and Maco showing their corporate-friendly yet again.
Ducky is concerned about composition of profit margins but shows little in composition of wage gains…which mostly went to the usual suspects.
But it is a sign of real progress when Ducky actually notices a study about rising profit margins’ contribution to inflation!
You are the most disgusting lying troll I have ever seen. Macroduck is a progressive. Neither he nor I are bought and paid for by anyone. The difference little boy is both of us have a brain. You clearly do not.
Those lines of yours should get you banned from any public forum. Especially since you are the one bought and paid for by Putin the war criminal.
Wait…you think I’m corporate friendly? Boy, you really haven’t got a clue.
Seriously, you might want to stop talking about your private boogey men and start talking to actual people.
The problem is that actual people start laughing out loud as soon as Jonny boy opens his mouth.
Well, that was interesting. You accused pgl and Macroduck of being corporate friendly and the protestations that they were progressive and anti-capitalist left right out of their replies.
“Leapt” but left works too. 😉
Aside, technology is great, but to replace a battery onnna MacBook Pro, you have to give up your computer for a week and type on an iPhone or old iPad. 🙁
I get the sense that your preK teacher is about to call the police. Look – they already have one retarded crying little baby (JohnH) to deal with and now Brucie baby is crying that his diaper is wet. Give the lady a break.
The part that business-friendly pgl conveniently covered up—Bivens: “ a chronic excess of corporate power has built up over a long period of time, and it manifested in the current recovery as an inflationary surge in prices.”
Dude – I have noted how markets are concentrated for a long time. The point a lot of smart people (which excludes you) make is that inflation remained below 2% for most of the period. But at least you finally read Bivens long enough to cherry pick and misrepresent what he said.
Morningstar: “Recession or not, Wall Street still expects inflation to produce record profit margins, with more on the way…
The record profit margins occurred amid record inflation, suggesting companies were benefiting from the higher prices handed down to consumers instead of attempting to catch up with increased costs — the reason many executives have cited for hiking prices.
In-depth: Corporate profit is at a level well beyond what we have ever seen, and it’s expected to keep growing.”
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230117344/recession-or-not-wall-street-still-expects-inflation-to-produce-record-profit-margins-with-more-on-the-way
Of course, as the article pointed out, expected increases in margins may not materialise, but they’ll probably be robust enough for pgl to hold onto his portfolio and maybe invest in more stocks.
Jonny boy is now quote a corporate homey at Morningstar. Yea – he has no pride. No pride at all.
Did Jonny boy forget to keep reading again?
“Still, forecasts for future profit margins are already falling, and will likely continue to decline as early optimism gives way to more clarity on corporations’ actual financial results later on. Wall Street expected annual profit margins to hit 13% in 2022 early in the year. But that target, as well as the expectations for future years, declined throughout. Analysts in recent weeks have already grown more pessimistic about companies’ earnings per share for the first half of this year.”
Or maybe he did read this but in his usual style, Jonny boy cherry picked what he wanted as he lied about what his own link said.
It’s pretty interesting in the their Twitter Inquisition today that every Republican on the committee made reference to their friend Elon Musk. It’s clear that they consider Musk to be their new Rupert Murdock and Twitter to be their new Fox News. And Musk’s actions are doing nothing to disabuse them of that notion.
No surprise since Musk had revealed attempts of democrats to have tweets removed but hidden a much larger influencing campaign from GOP members. Classic right wing move from Musk – if the facts don’t fit your narrative, just hide the facts. But poorly coordinated since GOP appeared somewhat surprised that it turns out their people had been much worse than any cherry-picked examples of democrats trying to influence twitter.
And Turley claims he can rely on this cherry pick set of information to opine on the legal issues. Seriously? How does Georgetown let this clown teach law students?
Did you see where Jonathan Turley is whining that the Democrats called this loser on his BS? Georgetown needs to fire Turley.
My go-to measure is interest + principle repayments due within one year / fiscal inflows.
If ya can’t pay the bills … ?
(And, never, ever, compare federal budgets to hose of a household.)
Let us remember that, for a brief, shining moment (2000), federal debt outstanding actually fell:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ZPlG
Greenspan freaked out about the government being forced to buy private assets (horrors!) in the Oh! So near future! So Bush convinced a reluctant electorate (seriously) that we needed tax cuts to avoid this evil future. But don’t worry, ’cause Social Security’s Trust Fund was in a lock box, you see…
Neither the Bush tax cut nor the Trump tax cut were ever able to pay for themselves or show any evidence of an increase in productive investment or in trend growth, and the government ended up buying private assets anyway by the end of the Bush administration,
but those tax cuts certainly have made for some fun debt-ceiling adventures!
@ Menzie
Menzie, as you might guess, some of the math here went over my head. But I found this guy over on Youtube (OK, yeah, you can make a joke here about me watching too many YT videos, I won’t be offended). It seemed to go against or contradict everything I have ever learned about “e” or Log. Do you have any thoughts on this??~~If Huntington-Klein is full of crap or if he’s raising something worthy here??
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2106.03070.pdf
A slightly longer view of the issue: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
Interesting that the chart in this post starts in 2015. Might have a different perspective if it began in, oh, 2008. The idea of massive government spending (and increasing debt to GDP) wasn’t unique to 2020 when the Democratic Party controlled Congress passed the CARES act.
But, hey, Trump etc.
“Might have a different perspective if it began in, oh, 2008.”
Why start then? Bush43 gave us fiscal irresponsibility and then handed Obama the Great Recession. Huh – Trump gave us fiscal irresponsibility and handed Biden the pandemic disaster.
Of course any honest picture would go back to what happened in the 1980’s under St. Reagan.
Then again if you ever made an honest comment in your worthless trolling life, Kelly Anne Conway would fire you.
Bruce Hall wants you to believe that Obama gave us a massive increase in government spending. FRED disagrees:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GCEC1
Real Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
Brucie loves to lie a lot – doesn’t he? Then again Brucie gets all pissy when we call him on his blatant lies.
You can always find a new perspective can’t you? But the topic of this post was debt to GDP ratio. Try again.
WTF? YOU were the one who falsely claimed government spending rose a lot under Obama. And when I show that you LIED – this is your little whining. Come on Brucie – grow up. The other kiddies are all mocking you.
I presume you can read the Fed graph so if spending didn’t go up rapidly under Obama, why did the debt to GDP ratio rise so quickly? Are you suggesting that tax revenue didn’t rise for four years?
Bruce Hall
February 9, 2023 at 6:33 pm
I presume you can read the Fed graph so if spending didn’t go up rapidly under Obama, why did the debt to GDP ratio rise so quickly? Are you suggesting that tax revenue didn’t rise for four years?
Brucie, Brucie, Brucie. I guess you never heard of the Great Recession which Obama inherited from Bush43? Guess what happens to tax revenues when real GDP nose dives. BTW – we did recover from this Bush43 disaster and guess what happened to tax revenues for the rest of his 8 year tenure?
Any more of the dumbest comments from the peanut gallery?
Another perspective for you troll:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S
Federal Receipts as Percent of Gross Domestic Product
Huh taxes went up while spending went down under Obama. But Trump fixed all that by increasing spending and reducing taxes.
But in Brucie’s world spending relative to taxes has nothing to do with the deficit. Yea – this little troll is that effing STUPID.
Oh, by all means , let’s ignore causation. Debt/GDP is arises from the mist, unrelated to tax or spending policy. Sure, Brucey.
Oh, I absolutely agree with you Macro. Under Obama, government spending rose much faster than GDP for the first four years. How else would the debt/GDP ratio increase so rapidly.
Bruce Hall
February 9, 2023 at 6:37 pm
Oh, I absolutely agree with you Macro. Under Obama, government spending rose much faster than GDP for the first four years. How else would the debt/GDP ratio increase so rapidly.
Repeat after me. The Great Recession. Write this on the chalk board 100 times and then tell us what happens to tax revenues during a massive recession created under Bush43.
Gee Brucie – we knew you were the dumbest troll God ever created so just relax. DAMN!
“Bruce Hall
February 9, 2023 at 6:37 pm
Oh, I absolutely agree with you Macro. Under Obama, government spending rose much faster than GDP for the first four years. How else would the debt/GDP ratio increase so rapidly.”
I noted this link to Brucie before:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S#:~:text=Federal%20Receipts%20as%20Percent%20of%20Gross%20Domestic%20Product,and%20Gross%20Domestic%20Product%20%28GDPA%29%3A%20FYFRGDA188S%20%3D%20%28%28FYFR%2F1000%29%2FGDPA%29%2A100
Federal Receipts as Percent of Gross Domestic Product
It shows a massive decline in tax revenues that were the result of the Great Recession. But Brucie still thinks the only way a deficit could rise is some alleged rise in government spending (spending actually fell under Obama as I noted before to Brucie boy).
Now I ask you – does this troll not know how to READ? Or does not get the basic concepts? Now I have accused this troll of being a serial liar as I could never imagine anyone could be THIS STUPID. But maybe I’m wrong – Brucie does strike me as dumber than a retarded rock.
You can’t say Bruce doesn’t know his history. His keen mind recalls all 96 Democrats in the U.S. Senate succeeded in passing the act by a 96-0 vote. The legislation was passed by a voice vote in the House (despite vigorous opposition from all 217 Republicans) and signed into law March 27(?) 2020 by leftist President Nancy Pelosi.
Brucie also thinks talking about things like government spend and taxes has nothing to do with the deficit. I would ask could anyone be more dumb? But we already know Brucie can and will be dumber and dumber.
Don’t be a clown and a liar. Or are just unable to read? Cite where I wrote that debt and deficits have nothing to do with spending.
Oh – don’t be Bruce Hall. Good idea!
If you have not already noticed, Bruce Hall has decided to lap the other lying trolls here for the 2023 Contest for Dumbest Troll of the Year. Yea – one blatant lie after another on fiscal policy over the years. But Brucie has decided to revisit his incredibly stupid, dishonest, and rather dangerous intellectual garbage with respect to COVID-19.
Now this kind of stupid dishonesty would get Brucie boy banned from most blogs. But hey – this is a rather tolerant place, which I guess gives us the ability to laugh out loud at how weak and transparent Brucie’s dishonesty really is. But could we please not have the sad pathetic excuse of a human being whine that we are being mean to him? DAMN!
You make a lot of troll-like comments without being able to back them up. How about actually contributing something?
Ever hear of the ad hominem fallacy?
Excuse me troll – but I have backed up how you are a moron and a liar almost as much as Trump lies. Stop being such a whiney little boy.
‘Bruce Hall
February 9, 2023 at 6:46 pm
Would you accept that Johns Hopkins is a credible source of information?’
You dared to write that AFTER I pointed out what Snopes exposed? See my reply to Dr. Chinn’s comment. You have no integrity. None at all.
Audible reckoning: How top political podcasters spread unsubstantiated and false claims
https://www.brookings.edu/essay/audible-reckoning-how-top-political-podcasters-spread-unsubstantiated-and-false-claims/
Due in large part to the say-whatever-you-want perceptions of the medium, podcasting offers a critical avenue through which unsubstantiated and false claims proliferate. As the terms are used in this report, the terms “false claims,” “misleading claims,” “unsubstantiated claims” or any combination thereof are evaluations by the research team of the underlying statements and assertions grounded in the methodology laid out below in the research design section and appendices. Such claims, evidence suggests, have played a vital role in shaping public opinion and political behavior.5 Despite these risks, the podcasting ecosystem and its role in political debates have received little attention for a variety of reasons, including the technical difficulties in analyzing multi-hour, audio-based content and misconceptions about the medium.6 Yet understanding the scope of this challenge is critically important. Using a combination of analytical methods – including natural language processing, machine learning, and manual classifying – this research provided the first overarching assessment of the role that popular political podcasting plays in spreading unsubstantiated and false claims. These podcasters, who span the political spectrum, make up the mainstream of the medium and regularly boast audiences in the millions. Drawing on data collected from 36,603 episodes produced by 79 prominent political podcasters, 17,061 evaluations, and 184 key terms and phrases, this analysis found:
Their findings note how the MAGA crowd are the leaders in disinformation. Steve Bannon who leads this list is proud that his podcast is the leader in lies.
Huh – Brookings should monitor the trolls here. I bet Bruce Hall would lead this list. And of course Brucie boy is proud that he is a serial liar!
During the first two years of the coronavirus pandemic, unsubstantiated and false claims circulated widely, but they tended to be more nuanced and less partisan than election-related claims: Unsubstantiated and false claims tied to the pandemic featured in one out of every eight episodes examined during this period. These claims, however, tended to be less overtly partisan and were often rooted in misunderstandings of science, confusion over evolving public health guidelines, and a heavy reliance on non-peer reviewed preprints.
That’s our Brucie boy!
Would you accept that Johns Hopkins is a credible source of information?
Bruce Hall: Would you accept UW-Madison is a credible source of information? And yet you take issue with a professor at UW-Madison. Do you understand the distinction?
Check out who really wrote Bruce Hall’s latest fraud:
https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/02/03/johns-hopkins-study-on-lockdowns/
After I pointed this out – he dares come here and argues it was a credible John Hopkins study? I probably should not question Brucie’s integrity as he clearly has none.
I guess you just skipped the Snopes expose of how this was not peer reviewed or a Johns Hopkins study. But thanks for reminding us of what a liar you are.
Because they are globalists. Give up the maga term. Its the same old “New Right” con since 1979 when they officially began their move. The only difference between Steve Bannon and Dick Cheney is Cheney has some ounce of respect for democracy left.
Just in case any body thought Elon Musk was a hero fighting for freedom.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/politics/spacex-ukrainian-troops-satellite-technology/index.html
He is not! He even blocked the use of his satellite phones by Ukraine beyond the invasion borders set by Russia and advocated by Musk.
“It was never intended to be weaponized,” Shotwell told an audience at a space conference. “However, Ukrainians have leveraged it in ways that were unintentional and not part of any agreement.”
So self defense is a bad thing? But if Putin used this to promote war crimes, Musk would have no problem with that? What a jerk.
how do you define ‘fighting for freedom’’?
can RF forces use the starling in the areas?
Fighting for freedom? Well, when a foreign military invades a sovereign country and the residents of that country fight back, that might be “fighting for freedom”.
“RF” and “starling” are not terms I’ve seen in the universal declaration of human rights, so I’m not sure what your second sentence has to do with your first sentence. Seems more like something you picked up in an echo-chamber chat roim.
The comment was clearly created by an AI chat-troll-bot (very “A” and not “I” at all). Don’t expect it to have any of the basic concepts encoded, its in pre-beta-testing mode.
you are very legal aren’t you.
what career is there to implying a legal or moral bent
to obscure the friction of empire
btw I took a dod paycheck for more than 30 years and I won’t lie that I saw any freedom fighting from it
For some stupid reason, JohnH likes to call people Joseph McCarthy. Yea this disgusting troll has no clue who McCarthy even was. Well Jim Jordan is going to be today’s version of the junior Senator from Wisconsin:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/republicans-weaponization-committee-is-a-fox-news-reboot-of-mccarthyism-white-house-says-ahead-of-first-hearing/ar-AA17iBF7?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=93c95424ad09478c9fdc793462b5f686
The House “Weaponization of the Federal Government” subcommittee is holding its first hearing.
The White House likened it to a “reboot of McCarthyism” designed to help Republicans get on Fox News.
The hearing will cover “the politicization of the FBI and DOJ and attacks on American civil liberties.”
House Republicans are launching a “reboot of McCarthyism” designed to help them get booked on Fox News, the White House said ahead of the “Weaponization of the Federal Government” subcommittee’s first hearing.
A memo released Thursday compared the committee to the notorious House Un-American Activities Committee, established in 1938 to investigate disloyalty and subversive activities, as it meets for a hearing on “the politicization of the FBI and DOJ and attacks on American civil liberties.”
extremism in limiting the use of federal muscle on individual Liberty is no vice
Barry Goldwater’s family should sue your pathetic rear end for that.
Its kind of interesting to see the GOP attacking our “security” agencies. GOP has always been the authoritarians who wanted those institutions strong (to keep the plebs under control). But I guess they had run out of steam in trying to panic and scare their minions about the 200 antifa “rebellions” in Portland. You have to give them that the FBI and DOJ are potentially scary given their size and power. However, those agencies are full of right leaning conservatives who may just switch party if they find themselves attacked and vilified by the GOP. So in their desperate attempts to keep the base scared blind they may end up alienating yet another group of supporters.
We need more of this in Ukraine:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-men-are-sick-of-fighting-why-600-russian-soldiers-in-luhansk-region-rebelled/ss-AA17heiV?cvid=d7330a9cf96146468f103e18149b81ff
Roughly 600 mobilized Russian soldiers in the Luhansk region refused to fight on the frontlines of Ukraine and were returned to Russia according to a report from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Now if more Russian soldiers refuse to fight – this horrific war will be over.
Senator Mike Lee is trying to deny he wants to eliminate Social Security and Medicare. Huh – so who was this back 13 years ago?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/news/senator-accuses-biden-of-lying-about-gop-plans-on-social-security-and-medicare/vi-AA17fl85
Of course Lee will protest this is just Democratic talking points. Gee Mikey – it was you that was doing the talking.
So who was saying that this Chinese balloon was just a weather balloon?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chinese-balloon-had-tools-to-collect-communications-signals-u-s-says/ar-AA17i7Vd?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e5e11080201742449a3e9678def833a6
The Chinese spy balloon shot down by the U.S. military over the Atlantic Ocean was capable of collecting communications signals and was part of a fleet of surveillance balloons directed by the Chinese military that had flown over more than 40 countries across five continents, the State Department said Thursday….The agency said the balloon had multiple antennas in an array that was “likely capable of collecting and geo-locating communications.” Solar panels on the machine were large enough to produce power to operate “multiple active intelligence collection sensors,” the department said.
We rely on the Big Four accounting firms to be honest about the financials for multinationals including their effective tax rates. Multinationals often rely on the Big Four to devise all sorts of means to shift profits abroad to evade income taxes. What could go wrong? I was trying to understand some fight between Perrigo and the IRS over one of these tax dodge schemes only to find this story about how E&Y may have failed in its responsibility as financial auditor:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/07/business/perrigo-omeprazole-taxes-ey.html
Court documents show the potential conflicts of interest when accounting firms simultaneously help clients avoid taxes and audit their finances. The drug company Perrigo had a problem. Consultants at the giant advisory firm EY had devised an elaborate arrangement that would allow Perrigo, one of the country’s leading makers of nonprescription drugs, to avoid more than $100 million in federal taxes. But the company’s outside auditors, at the accounting firm BDO, were questioning the setup’s propriety. Perrigo soon replaced BDO with EY as its auditor. At least one EY official, too, expressed concern that the tax shelter his colleagues had designed was overly aggressive. Even so, auditors at EY, also known as Ernst & Young, eventually blessed the transactions, which federal authorities now claim were shams, according to previously unreported documents made public in a court case last year. Accountants have a reputation as bean counters. In reality, their audits are a linchpin of global capitalism: Investors need to be able to trust that companies’ numbers are reliable and have been reviewed by credible outsiders. Having a reputable auditing firm sign off on your financial statements is therefore a prerequisite to being listed on a major stock exchange and attracting significant investments.
Read the whole story as it is excellent reporting on some deal to produce generic antacids where the US distributor purchased products made in Israel and made sizeable profits which magically got sourced in a tax haven. The issue has gone before a court and we can expect a decision soon. Yea Perrigo had a prominent transfer pricing economist spin their story but the IRS hired their experts as well. If the tax director and the CFO of Perrigo have heartburn over the mess they have created – maybe they should take their own drug.
No wonder the GOP is being told by their corporate overlords to cut the IRS budget.
Perrigo has lots of court cases with not only the IRS but also the Israeli tax authorities over blatant income shifting. I guess their lawyers are getting rich but do not go long on this particular stock.
I still think Susan Rice is an incredible incredible woman, and the best America has to offer. The true “public servant”.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/02/06/readout-of-principals-committee-meeting-on-national-strategy-to-counter-antisemitism/
I still think she would make a great VP candidate on a Democrat presidential ticket. Or even President if she feels she can pull in the votes. Just a huge fan of hers.
Or CIA, Sec of Defense, Susan Rice can do many jobs and not just do them, do them with excellence
I like rice. I believe she enjoys and is good at public service. I don’t believe she is interested in “election” politics. I don’t think her personality makes her electable, meaning she is not willing to talk out of both sides of her mouth to achieve winning an election. so she will continue to serve her country in appointed positions, not elected positions. fine by me. everybody contributes in their own special way.
In the long list of comments nobody pointed out that from 2021Q2 to 2022Q3 nominal GDP increased faster than the debt held by the public.
Nominal GDP increased faster because of inflation, which means that the public is holding more devalued debt.
In other words, the federal government is taking advantage of high inflation to dilute debt.
Not sure this is something the cheerleaders of this administration should celebrate.
Manfred translated – real interest rates are too low. Gee Manfred – maybe you want the FED to jack up real interest rates to 10%!
Or maybe you never read Irving Fisher’s 1907 classic?
“the federal government is taking advantage of high inflation”
What a dumb statement. It seems that the government is reducing that transitory rise in inflation. Some taking advantage.