Mass Shooting Correlates, through March 2023

Estimating through March 29, regressions of mass shooting casualties, and mass shooting events:

Figure 1: Mass shooting casualties (killed+wounded) per thousand, left scale (brown), and mass shooting events (blue bar, right scale). Gray shading denotes assault weapons ban. Orange shading denotes Trump administration. Source: Mother Jones database, BEA and author’s calculations.

We can analyze correlations using regression analysis (GLM for casualties, negative binomial for events).

casualtiest = –1.76 – 0.72 bant + 1.21 trumpt + 0.44 bident +0.00001popt

SER = 32.7, NOBS = 399. Bold denotes significance at 10% msl, standard errors corrected for overdispersion (GLM, negative binomial option in EViews).

For number of mass shooting events, count regression:

eventst = –5.43 – 0.54 bant + 0.51 trumpt + 0.64 bident +0.00001popt

Adj-R2 = 0.13, SER = 0.596, NOBS = 399. Bold denotes significance at 10% msl, standard errors corrected for overdispersion (negative binomial in EViews).

Population for February and March set equal to January growth.

 

86 thoughts on “Mass Shooting Correlates, through March 2023

  1. Moses Herzog

    I read somewhere semi-reliable that Audrey Hale was receiving psychological counseling and that his parents at least claimed they had tried to keep guns away from “him” (I’m older generation and still getting adjusted to some of this stuff, I assume Audrey preferred male pronoun). Some people will tell me it’s “neither here nor there” but it’s fascinating to me Audrey did look feminine in the photos I have seen. Even I dare say attractive to my hetero-male eyes. Kind of that “bookish” kind of charm some women have that actually appeals to me. Maybe that is why he was so angry?? Trying to conform to society’s rules and the anger building up inside over a long time.

    One question some people might ask is, “Why the blow-up if receiving counseling??” Certainly a question I had. Maybe the deal of “too little too late”?? The damage was done from his teen years, hard to repair the damage. Anyone who had rough teen years can at least relate to a degree. Obviously Audrey’s teen years were certainly more severe than most. I know this is a very very unpopular thing to say, but I just can’t help but feel some….. sympathy….. ?? to Audrey. If he had had someone to talk to in his teen years and less religious dogma in his teen years, would things have turned out different for Audrey?? I can’t help but think that they would have been better, and he could have found more positive outlets for dark emotions or “pent-up” emotions.

    They call it “the human condition”??

    1. Ivan

      Unfortunately counseling is not that quick to help and usually very limited in the help it can provide. Even if it may have dialed the pressure a little down it is not likely to have had nearly enough positive effect to counter the negative effect from current trends of hatred and torture of transpeople, that have exploded in Red “small government” states like TN. The right wing “Christian” hatred and torture of these already tortured transgender souls is putting a lot of pressure on them and we should not be surprised if one of them snap and retaliate against these so-called normal, so-called Christians.

  2. Not Trampis

    Why in the hell are AR rifles and even seni-AR rifles allowed to be sold to people in yank land? Their only reason for being sold is to kill people

    1. CoRev

      Not Trampis shows his ignorance: “Why in the hell are AR rifles and even seni-AR rifles allowed to be sold to people in yank land? Their only reason for being sold is to kill people” Your argument makes as much sense as: Why in the hell are bikes and even twin seated bikes allowed to be sold to people in yank land? Their only reason for being sold is to injure people in bike V auto accidents.

      An AR (style) weapon is just a platform for shooting no different than bikes and autos are platforms for transportation. So to reduce shooting and transportation deaths remove the needs for both/either.

      The liberal mind is an amazement.

      1. CoRev

        Now that we can see the death problem is a platform, shooting or transportation. I think we need to outlaw all of them, like was done in Australia for guns. Clearly the use of bikes, especially the most dangerous form, motorized bikes, should immediately be removed from the market place. Making things even more dangerous we can find the prolific use of the most dangerous form of transportation platform the AUTOMOBILE.

        Tens of thousands of lives could be saved annually. In the US that2020 total is: “…38,824 lives were lost in traffic crashes nationwide.” https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/2020-traffic-crash-data-fatalities

        The liberal mind is an amazement.

        1. pgl

          What a sick and stupid rant. Hey CoRev – we get that you could care less about the victims of mass shootings but come on man. Stop insulting everyone’s intelligence with these disgusting rants.

        2. pgl

          Trump indicted by Manhattan grand jury over 2016 Stormy Daniels payment

          https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-indicted-by-manhattan-grand-jury-over-2016-stormy-daniels-payment/ar-AA19hM0d?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=2aac538182b54eddaf871d758c2687e4&ei=6

          Hey CoRev – why are you spending time here and not rushing up to Manhattan with your fellow domestic terrorists? Now you might want to leave behind your little military assault weapons as the NYC is ready for your ilk and I here our prison calls are not exactly 5 star accomodations. MAGA.

          1. Moses Herzog

            I’m super-confused. Wasn’t MSNBC saying within the last 48 hours that the jury was taking a two week break and leaving the public in limbo??

            Haven’t even been following closely because so tired of public officials’ never-ending prattle on how they’re going to move on him and then being too chickenshit to file the charges.

      2. pgl

        CoRev – pack your bags as the professionals are coming to take you off to a rubber room – where you belong. Seriously dude – do you have to make a total a$$ of yourself on every topic? BTW $$$$ is what you are hoping the gun lobby will send you. Sorry dude – even they have given up on your insane barking.

      3. Not Trampis

        we down under sensibly banned such weapons.
        If they are not made to kill people what are they made for. In other words why would you buy such weapons to shoot and at what or who?

        1. pgl

          “If they are not made to kill people what are they made for. In other words why would you buy such weapons to shoot and at what or who?”

          CoRev is afraid to admit this publicly since the FBI might be monitoring but he owns assault weapons for the next Trump rally where the MAGA mob can kill LIBERALS in defense of the mob boss. Yea – this is the reason why the NYPD is gearing up for CoRev and his domestic terrorists.

        2. Moses Herzog

          @ Not Trampis
          To answer your question, (if you don’t mind too much a stupid yank replying earnestly to your query) I think the over-arching theory is that “they’ll need more than a hunting rifle or pistol” if they ever have to “take arms” against an over-reaching government.

          I am not “pro guns” but having lived seven years within a country without guns, and knowing the cowering of a citizenry afraid of its own government, I cannot say the theory is entirely without merit.

        3. CoRev

          Not Trampis, this long gun platform is used in nearly every shooting SPORT, hunting, target, and is even used in several Olympic contests. BTW, I noticed Australia did not win a shooting medal in the 2020 Olympics. Fear of the gun?

          Since you have condemned the use of an AR, would you please define it for us, so that we know what offends you. I ask, only because its definition has been a problem for decades.

          Would you please define the functional differences between these two rifles: http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/E293188B-8962-4C8F-A154-026CD4C23C34.jpeg (modern 9mm carbine) and https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-manager-of-daves-guns-holds-two-colt-ar-15s-the-gun-on-news-photo/51301113 (comparison of the legal and illegal versions under the previous gen ban bill)
          The 2nd pic shows what is meant by a gun platform. They are both AR15s.

          1. pgl

            “would you please define it for us”

            The CoRev two step. Listen – anything that fire off 30 bullets in less than 30 seconds is not what a true hunter takes out to kill Bambi. Of course if one is incompetent as CoRev – Bambi is safe unless CoRev brings his own army.

            CoRev – you are not arguing and good faith and you know it. So spend your time wisely and book a ticket for South Manhattan so you can have your worthless rear end arrested this Tuesday,

          2. Not Trampis

            I missed that Olympic event of shooting ARs. Use it for hunting ?? the animal would be in a 1000 pieces.

            We downunder have been hunting since we first arrived here and have never used ARs at all. Shooting an AR from a Ute would be ahem interesting

          3. CoRev

            Not Trampis: “Use it for hunting ?? the animal would be in a 1000 pieces….We downunder have been hunting since we first arrived here and have never used ARs at all. Shooting an AR from a Ute would be ahem interesting”

            Ahem, please stop with the ignorance. Without defining the term AR, you ASS-U-ME, they are full automatic weapons. NO, not for sport versions. Here that version is illegal to own without a special license, and is reserved for the military and police.

            What is funny about the ignorant is they are in denial of reality. Today Australia’s gun count is higher than before the law changed. znd the use of military version of weapons continues and even has club(s) https://qmrc.org/_Media/qmrc-logo—test-2–2_med_hr-3.jpeg

    2. James

      Agree – to me it is instructive to look at the history of the M16 – gun manufacturers had saturated the military market for these firearms and wanted to sell to new markets – U.S. civilian – greed. Meanwhile Democrats passed a “crime bill” which included an assault weapons ban – as usual – the Right-Wing/proto MAGA party used this as a rallying cry – “they are taking away our guns!” while collecting massive donations from NRA/gun manufacturers. Hence, ten years later – the GOP controls the U.S. House of Rep and lets ban lapse. Now anyone (including violence-prone – mentally-disturbed individuals) can buy a military style firearm without any kind of training/gun safety or background check. (Also – you can go to one of the frequently held gun shows and do a private sale and all you have to have is the cash.)

    3. 2slugbaits

      Not Trampis I’ll tell you why. Because American “sportsmen” are such lousy shots that they need to fire a hundred rounds quickly in order to hit the broad side of a barn. People who have been formally trained in riflery know that you’re supposed to take your time, watch you breathing and slowly squeeze the trigger. Most Americans learned how to shoot from their ignorant back woods “pappy” or “grandpappy” after swallowing a few snorts of the local moonshine.

      1. Moses Herzog

        My favorite is how American “hunters” need deer urine and American “fishermen” need radar under the boat to catch fish. I think 1950s hunters would die of laughter to see the “hunting” and ‘fishing” now. Why don’t American “hunters” and “fishers” just put baby deer in a 20′ by 20′ pen, and a couple catfish in their home bathtub and call it a day. Give them a scooter in case the 20’ walk makes them winded. You know the whole “face a challenge” to improve yourself is sooooo overrated. Teach your sons to be wussies is what I say.

    4. Baffling

      Because we have alot of adults whose emotional maturity was stunted at puberty who believe they are rambo.

    5. CoRev

      A rock in bad hands killed Abel.
      A rock in good hands killed Goliath.
      It’s not about the rock.

        1. CoRev

          Noneconomist, what’s 300 rocks/minute have to do with anything? Do you know that owning gun with this capability is already illegal?

          The ignorant liberal mind is an amazement.

          1. pgl

            “Do you know that owning gun with this capability is already illegal?”

            It should be illegal but in many states it is not. Hey CoRev – any more blatant lies that the NRA wants you to spew?

          2. Noneconomist

            O great and knowledgeable firearms
            Expert. An unmodified weapon like AR 15 is capable of firing 45 RPM. Either Cain or David would have to hustle to sling that number of rocks
            In a minute.
            MODIFIED, such a weapon would —depending on model and ammunition in use—be capable of firing 300 RPM and more. That’s common info gleaned from numerous sites.
            Are you THAT stupid to believe that there’s no one around who could modify any weapon to achieve
            greater lethality.
            (OK, I know you’re that stupid. I was just being polite)

          3. CoRev

            Lying Ole Bark, bark claims: “It should be illegal but in many states it is not.” It is a Federal not a state law.

            BTW, how bullied were you in your childhood? Your behavior defines an over reaction to be bullied. When do you think you will mature past your teen years? The calendar may indicate that you passed more years than your teens, but your comments have not. Not for the two decades I have seen (not always read) your comments. Perhaps, one day your frontal lobe will complete maturation, but you defy evidence that it will be soon.

            It is personalities like yours that should not be allowed gun ownership for fear of misuse nor even a drivers license for fear of road rage.

            Please. please confirm you do nor own either.

          4. CoRev

            Noneconomist, thanks for the erudite answer. You do realize that you are talking about illegal guns, don’cha? Another law restricting modifying an AR15 helps how?

            The ignorant liberal mind does amaze.

          5. Noneconomist

            CoRev, thanks for proving your cluelessness is boundless. No one would ever purchase a weapon legally and modify it (because 45 RPM isn’t sufficient)?
            Even that bit of Corevarian wisdom has to take a back seat to your belief that a kid slinging rocks is as dangerous as a kid firing a modern assault rifle.
            And, of course the shooter who would only legally purchase his weapon would never purchase and intend to use more than one? Nor in that increasingly dark corner where your mind has gone to permanently winter, would any shooter dare to dream about modifying his weapon(s)..
            You’ve somehow moved beyond being that stupid. With no end to your movement in sight.

          6. CoRev

            Noneconomist, try refuting what is said, instead of trying your mind meld to know what I think.

            Remember it is you that want to add more illegality to own something already illegal. How does that help? Fearing modification? Why not fear the creation/machining of a fully automatic weapon? Which, BTW is also illegal.

            There are few examples where fully automatic weapons were used in mass killings, with the exception of gang attacks.

            The ignorant liberal mind does amaze.

          7. Noneconomist

            Hey, rock and firearms expert, the great CR. That good rock you were so ecstatic about, the one used by David to knock down Goliath, waS one of FOUR he chose out of a clear stream. So, in CoRevville, where a rock is equal to discharge from a modern weapon, he was prepared to sling 4 RPM! (He needed a sword too, sure, but let’s stick with your rock)
            Gee, what damage could have done in Nashville if the shooter had chosen to sling rocks instead of firing multiple weapons. That rock PLATFORM would have shown us how lethal a bag of stream smoothed rocks could be. No need to buy multiple weapons that could fire projectiles at 45 RPM. Rounds per minute, not rocks.
            The CoRev mind: MIA…with no action noticeable for quite some time.

          8. CoRev

            Noneconomist,so you can not refute? OK, keep trying your failing mind meld.

            Your mind is an amazement.

      1. pgl

        Did you have to insult the Bible this way? God has decided your faith – burning in hell. Enjoy.

      1. pgl

        What a sick and stupid rant. Hey CoRev – we get that you could care less about the victims of mass shootings but come on man. Stop insulting everyone’s intelligence with these disgusting rants.

      2. pgl

        Yea – she may have had a couple of pistols but they were 7 – count them 7 guns. But little lying CoRev tells us there was no real danger because one of the guns was a pistol? CoRev – you may be this pathetically stupid but give our Aussie friend a break. Damn – your lying for the NRA is getting rather weak.

        1. CoRev

          Lying Ole Bark, bark claims: “But little lying CoRev tells us there was no real danger because one of the guns was a pistol? ”

          Show us where I said anything close to that.

          Grow up or shut up!

          1. Noneconomist

            It would be impossible for you to top a kid slinging rocks being as dangerous a kid firing a gun. Face it. You are that stupid

          2. CoRev

            Noneconomist: “It would be impossible for you to top a kid slinging rocks being as dangerous a kid firing a gun. Face it. You are that stupid” Kids have access to rocks, but not legally to guns.

            The fact guns are more lethal than rocks matters how? I dunno, a deranged 28 YO transgender is still not a kid. Are you that stupid?

            The ignorant and emotional liberal mind does amaze.

          3. Noneconomist

            The fact that guns are more lethal than matters how? Who was it who pointed that David killed with a rock? And could kill just as easily as a modern weapon?
            Yes, there’s definitely continued serious competition between your “mind” and a bag of rocks for the annual “Dumber than….” Award.

          4. baffling

            noneconomist, prior to chat gtp, if you were in a discussion with covid or a chatbot, could you tell the difference?

  3. Macroduck

    Mass shootings are often preceded by suicidal thought. The U.S. has a high suicide rate for a developed country. The U.S. has a very high gun ownership rate. Gun ownership is highest among white males. Suicide is most common among white males. In the U.S. over half of suicides among males are committed with guns. Mass shootings are committed most commonly by white males. Two thirds of U.S. gun owners say they own guns for protection, which is to say, they own guns with the idea of using them against other humans.

    The rise in mass shootings in the U.S. correlates with a rise in white male suicides and with gun owwnership.*

    Looks like mass shootings in the U.S. are a result of gun culture. Gun culture is causal in white male suicide. White male suicide in our gun culture is causal in mass shootings. It’s what happens when Rambo kills himself.

    * Go ahead. Tell me correlation isn’t causation.

    1. CoRev

      Sigh, again! MD hits on a key point, suicide and guns, then jumps the shark to blame gun ownership, AND NOT THE ACTUAL OWNER’S EMOTIONAL WELL BEING.

      The Nashville shooter is quoted: “I’m planning to die today.” Blame the weapon(s), and not the person. Suicide by police is a frequent even in these many mass shootings. Do you actually believe that the suicide wouldn’t have been attempted without the POLICE GUNS.*

      * Go ahead. Tell me correlation isn’t causation.

      1. Ivan

        If the only weapon available to this person was a straw and a bag full of spitballs, then there wouldn’t have been a massacre. Maybe there would still have been a suicide by jumping on a shark, or off a tall building – but that wouldn’t have killed 3 elementary school kids.

        You don’t get mass shootings without guns and you don’t get this kind of mass shooting – where there were no wounded survivors, just kids and adults blown to pieces – without assault rifles.

        1. pgl

          Guns don’t kill people. Crazed people who are allowed to purchase guns because we undermined the Brady bill kill people. Oh wait – the NRA does not like my rewriting of their usual stupid spin.

        2. CoRev

          Ivan rightfully claims: ” Maybe there would still have been a suicide by jumping on a shark, or off a tall building – but that wouldn’t have killed 3 elementary school kids.”

          It is the killing of 6 to commit suicide by police that really offends. Why? He/she was clearly troubled mentally, but why kill others to commit suicide? How did the gun cause this? It was an instrument used by a sick mind, but so is a vehicle, knife, fire or explosives. All were used in mass murders. Why blame the instrument?

          The shallow, emotional and illogical liberal mind does amaze.

          1. pgl

            Damn dude – you are just spinning your wheels with meaningless babbling. Focus dude – the emails from the NRA only need to be cut and pasted. Come on man – get with their program.

          2. Macroduck

            “It is the killing of 6 to commit suicide by police that really offends.”

            Really? We wouldn’t be offended by the killing of 6 innocents if those killings weren’t in service of committing suicide? So we needn’t be offended by gang killings? We needn’t be offended when a lawyer kills his family, clearly planning to get away with it? We needn’t be offended when human smugglers leave their clients locked in a truck in the desert?

            CoVid wants us to be distracted by the suicide, so we ignore the role of guns in the killings. The killings are the offensive part. Killings carried out with guns. Killings that result from a gun culture focused on killing people.

      2. 2slugbaits

        CoRev Do you believe you are emotionally and intellectually stable enough to own a gun? Remember, you voted for Nixon twice, voted for Trump twice, supported the Iraq invasion, don’t believe that manmade CO2 is responsible for global warming, and you think ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine are effective at treating COVID. In my view no one who has shown so much mental derangement over many decades is responsible enough to own a semi-automatic weapon.

        And the issue isn’t just the “style” of the assault weapon, although I’m sure it’s aggressive look attracts a peculiar kind of right-wing militia wannabee type. What we should be banning are any firearms that can reload without some kind of human action. Besides, no one who requires more than one shot to hit his or her target is too incompetent to own a gun.

        1. CoRev

          2slugs: “…no one who requires more than one shot to hit his or her target is too incompetent to own a gun.”, and that’s why target shooting using all gun platforms is so popular.

          You seem to be arguing against semi-automatic arms, but then drift into all modern arms. But, as I already pointed out the bible stories about stones being successful Assault Weapons. It isn’t the weapon of choice, but the user responsible.

          Why continuously show us your ignorance?

          1. Macroduck

            The user chooses the weapon. Assault-style weapons are designed to kill humans. The target practice you mention often involves targets which depict humans. Pretending that the style of weapon is irrelevant is nonsensical. Bunny-busters don’t end up at mass shootings. Militart-style weapons do. That’s not spin. That’s simple fact.

          2. Noneconomist

            You seem to arguing that slinging ONE rock is equivalent to firing one shot from a a rifle. That you would make such a comparison is no surprise, considering your mind which has been long closed while your mouth remains open.
            No doubt you are also stupid enough to believe David could reach into his bag and sling 44 more
            R (rocks)PM, then reload similar to someone using a
            Semi automatic rifle..
            That’s ridiculous,
            of course, but it’s you and you do specialize in unembarrassed idiocy .
            Please. Enlighten us with more CoReverie. Comedy from a self styled savant is always welcome.

          3. CoRev

            MD, please stop the emotional ignorance. “Pretending that the style of weapon is irrelevant is nonsensical. Bunny-busters don’t end up at mass shootings. Militart-style (sp) weapons do. That’s not spin. That’s simple fact.” Yet, her in the real world, bunny-buster weapons, rifles and shotguns were used in mass killings. https://www.statista.com/statistics/476409/mass-shootings-in-the-us-by-weapon-types-used/ Moreover, the most prevalent gun used is the handgun. Are they military-style? Yes. What isn’t?

            Single shot muzzle loading rifles were used militarily. Bows and arrows were used militarily. Stones and stones and slings were used militarily. Knives and other edged weapons were used militarily. Clubs were used militarily. My favorite, vehicles, tracked, wheeled and motorized or not, were used militarily.

            I ask again. Define AR and or other military weapons for restraint. I’ll wait.

            The ignorance of the liberal mind is an amazement.

      3. Macroduck

        CoVid makes his reductionist point over and over, because reductionism is all he’s got.

        The U.S. has a gun culture focused on killing humans. Thedifference in “platform” is the difference between a gun designed to kill humans – military-style rifles and handguns – and a gun designed to kill bunnies. CoVid ignores intention. Intentionally.

        CoVid also ignored my point that there is a connection between suicide and mass killings. Intentionally.

        We have cultivated (as in “we have a culture of”) gun violence among white males. That culture manifests itself in suicides, mass killings, individual killings, militia activity, gun sales and ammunition sales. The evidence is there. CoVid willfully ignores that evidence.

        1. CoRev

          MD, can you read? We can see you do lie. Instead of ignoring intention, I pointed out the obvious suicide/suicide by police problem.

          You also claim: “We have cultivated (as in “we have a culture of”) gun violence among white males.” White kind of racist comment ignores the numerous deaths by other than white males? “In the United States, 13% of all murders are associated with gangs” In the United States, 13% of all murders are associated with gangs ” https://safeatlast.co/blog/gang-violence-statistics/

          MD would like us to believe that all those gangs are made up of white males. Laughably unlikely, why the exaggeration?

          Instead of refuting my actual comments he has to lie about them. Just another debate trick to misplace attention from weak claims.

          The ignorant and emotional liberal mind is an amazement.

  4. baffling

    it is good to know that our republican friends can be counted on to respond to each event with prayer. glad some of our elected officials understand the tools at hand to fix the problem, although most even refuse to acknowledge the problem to begin with. McCarthy still needs to gather the facts. what he means is, the body bag count is not high enough for him to admit a problem.

    1. baffling

      why is it that conservatives ban guns and enforce metal detectors in their own places of employment, but refuse to do the same for the rest of the public?
      https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/03/30/jamaal-bowman-thomas-massie-house-gun-control-argument-sot-pt-vpx.cnn
      Thomas massie enjoys the protection of no gun zones and capital police, but does not care about the vulnerability of school children. his solution is simply more guns. what a jacka$$. the nra certainly got their money’s worth with this political hack. massie is cheap to buy.

  5. Ivan

    The desperation of those scared little boys who fear that if we take military weapons away from lunatics the next time we come for them and their guns, is just astounding.

    It should be obvious to everybody that mass shootings requires both a lunatic AND a gun. Take away one of them and you don’t have a mass shooting event. The wast majority of gun owners don’t commit mass murder and the wast majority of lunatics don’t do it either. It is even true that the wast majority of lunatics with guns never kill anybody.

    There is no way we will ever get completely rid of this kind of events no matter what we do – however we should try to do anything we can to reduce their numbers and the number of killed people.

    When you ask these scared little boys (who need their guns like a baby needs a pacifier) for their actual practical solution, they have no coherent or proven strategy as an answer. Just a stupid little mumble about “it’s the people not the gun’s” – as if somehow we can get rid of that kind of people and create a dystopia where there are no people who get into a homocidal rage (so we don’t have to worry about military style weapons).

    The only thing they really “know” is that the solution is definitely not the one that has worked in other countries. They are ready and willing to sacrifice the lives of little school children in order to pacify their fear with infantile dreams of the weapon defending themselves and their family against the “evil others”. In reality it is much more likely that they or someone in their household gets killed by the gun, than it being effective in fending off the extremely rare case of an armed intruder. But don’t present them with that kind of facts – their fear has closed their mind and ears.

    1. baffling

      they honestly believe they are Rambo, when called to battle. they want to be prepared. in Russia, those with such a personality became cannon fodder for the Wagner group.

      1. CoRev

        Baffled claims without evidence: ” in Russia, those with such a personality became cannon fodder for the Wagner group.” Yet over here it is those who attended a rally on January 6th who are considered insurrectionists, and thrown into prison. Your attentions will next turn to gun owners?

        The liberal mind is an amazement where their fear has closed their mind and ears.

        1. baffling

          they were insurrectionists. I am glad they are going to jail. your fearless leader is headed in that direction as well.

        2. Macroduck

          “The liberal mind” is CoVid’s answer to everything. Because CoVid is a dyed-in-the-wool partisan goon. Why not look at the policy, the facts, the argument? Because the policy, fact and argument don’t work put for CoVid’s masters. Blaming liberals does.

          1. CoRev

            MD, I actually quote policy weakness and negative impacts. You fail to respond to those comments or use weak debating tricks to show your own denial.

            I have asserted that Climate Change policy, resulting energy and net zero policies are largely responsible for today’s high inflation. This short period of inflation has been more costly than any concurrent Climate Change impacts. Refute that.

            The lying, denying, ignorant liberal mind is an amazement.

    2. pgl

      Maybe they think this shooter was really Cynthia Rothrock who could kill multiple people with her martial arts.

  6. baffling

    republicans in congress continue to sacrifice school children at the alter of the nra. blood money.

    1. pgl

      During COVID Bruce Hall actually celebrated old people dying. So being a fellow MAGA moron – it figures that CoRev celebrates the murder of elementary school children.

        1. CoRev

          Menzie, only your liberals use terms like “surplus population”. Why do you folks so hate humans? Indeed, reading the comments here, why do you hate so much? I take it you agree with mass killing to reduce the surplus is valid?

          The professorial liberal mind is an amazement. They sometimes give us insight into their warped thinking, “surplus population”.

        2. CoRev

          Menzie, I’ll try again. ?”surplus population.” the only commenters celebrating appear to be you and immature Ole Bark, bark.

          The liberal mind is an amazement.

          1. CoRev

            Menzie, you and the other liberals here have yet to refute my claims. Instead of emotional anger, use logic. Define what an assault weapon is. I have given historical examples. Why have you folks failed to define your definition for assault weapons? Or define “surplus populations”.”

            The hatred of the liberal mind is an amazement. Citing an article which indicates WHITE LIBERALS may be the cause of Asian hate attacks shows just another form of racism.

          2. baffling

            i would define it so that nobody can weasel out based on technicalities. a weapon that can be fired x number of times in a minute, will be considered an assault rifle. we can debate what the value of x should be. i may say 1, you may say 100. but once we determine that number, you know what will be considered an assault rifle. no ambiguity. eliminates any arguments about a shoulder bump, etc. that and limits on magazine capacity would be a good start.

          3. CoRev

            Baffled, X rounds/minute? and then this: ” a weapon that can be fired x number of times in a minute, will be considered an assault rifle.”, speaking about technicalities. A weapon may or may not be a rifle. So, just what is it you are trying to define?

            It is this kind of inaccurate descriptions that shows your ignorance. Now start defining weapon and then rifle and all other items that fall into your category. Clear descriptions/definitions and the TECHNICALITIES matter.

            Since you are over simplifying, lets now try the grand father of existing weapons/rifles. If not grandfathered what is your solution? Then there’s the manufacture and jobs issue. Once those are solved we need to solve the tax loss issues. And on and on … simple solutions for simple problems. Define the problem you are solving.

            Hint, Australia so often claimed as an example bought some guns, but today there are actually more gunsthere than before the law was passed.

            The liberal mind and its over simplified solutions is an amazement.

          4. baffling

            “A weapon may or may not be a rifle.”
            a rifle is a technicality. an assault weapon is a better description, in order to eliminate a weasel playing with words. i don’t need to describe a rifle. i need to describe a weapon that fires x times a minute. why try to complicate what is actually a straight forward description?

            “If not grandfathered what is your solution? Then there’s the manufacture and jobs issue. Once those are solved we need to solve the tax loss issues. ”
            another attempt to distract from the problem. there is no grandfathered. it is illegal. it is an assault rifle. if you owned a nuclear weapon before it was made illegal, do you grandfather that device as well? silly.

            manufacture and jobs issue. it is not an issue, other than political. make legal guns. do not make illegal guns.

            tax loss issue? next time you want to cut taxes on the wealthy, don’t. cost is covered. again, you act like these are insurmountable problems with no solutions. the tax issue is trivial. they actually have very tidy solutions, just not solutions you are happy with covid.

  7. Econned

    Even before a single glance, the fatality model isn’t useful. At first glance, the events model seems potentially useful. What do we do with the model suggestion that the Biden administration is correlated to greater shooting events than the Trump administration? Biden bad? Spillover from Trump? Spurious model? As is, it seems the suggestion is to implement an assault weapons ban, stop population growth, prevent another Trump administration, and end the Biden administration. This should result in a small (numerical) impact on mass shooting events. Also, what other variables were considered in modeling these unfortunate mass shooting events?

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Econned: There’s no fatalities model. There’s a casualties model. I didn’t impute causality; that’s why the title of the post is the title of the post.

      1. Econned

        Menzie Chinn:
        Sorry for the mistake Re: fatality/casualty.
        I hear you regarding the models not asserting causation which is why I said “is correlated to greater shooting events“ but what I’m not clear about is the usefulness of this exercise if we’re not to even suggest any extrapolation to causation. Just model for little practical use? Just for fun? To not discuss any potential causation?

        1. baffling

          just to see who would whine out of professional jealousy. the desire to criticize and state grievances clouded any valid comment you tried to make, econned.

        2. Macroduck

          Because it’s an important subject, worthy of understanding? Nah, that couldn’t be it…

          1. Econned

            Macroduck,
            I agree but exactly why are these correlations important of understanding if not to suggest some degree of causation?

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