CDS’s on One Year Treasurys

Phillips/Krupa at GS note exhaustion of emergency measures to avoid the debt ceiling could arrive earlier than expected. Insurance costs have risen to above 2011 levels.

But don’t worry. Leader McCarthy has a plan. It’s right there next to where Sen. Joe McCarthy had his list.

79 thoughts on “CDS’s on One Year Treasurys

    1. ltr

      May 31, 2008

      Embedded vs. Non-Embedded Inflation
      By Paul Krugman

      The big economic debate of the moment is whether the Federal Reserve and its peers have made a terrible mistake by focusing on staving off financial crisis while more or less ignoring the rise of inflation. “Inflation is rising and it seems the world’s central banks have critically misjudged the situation,” says Wolfgang Munchau in the Financial Times. I’ve heard even more apocalyptic views from some serious people in the last couple of weeks….

      1. pgl

        “Well, I’m basically a believer in a “staggered price-setting” story, which explains how we can have what is often called an inflationary spiral, but would better be described as inflationary leapfrogging — a process in which inflation can feed on itself.”

        Krugman wrote this almost 15 years ago. In his latest Twittering, he pointed to an NBER paper from last year which considered this issue using both Calvo and Taylor staggered price setting models.

        I suggested people actually read the recent NBER paper. I appreciate that you found this past Krugman blog post as yea he was a bit ahead of his time.

    2. JohnH

      Wasn’t there a way to blame this on Putin? I saw no line showing the invasion of Ukraine. (I’ll assume it’s an oversight.)

      1. baffling

        John, why do you continually defend putin, who will go down in history as one of the more evil people to ever live? why do you support such evil?

  1. Moses Herzog

    Is this “take two” (in film jargon) on RBG’s narcissism and to hell with anything else?? Well, “she has the right”. Yes, breathe, take up oxygen, don’t mind the rest of the world…… we’re ALL here……. to placate you Diane. That’s why we’re all here.

    Did you need your hand held to find the Senate restrooms Diane?? Oh wait, you didn’t even make it to the office today, did you Diane? Well, you call us two months from now when you “figure it out” Diane. Or later, it’s nothing. Really.

    “Your doctor or pharmacist can give you Shingrix as a shot in your upper arm. Shingrix provides strong protection against shingles and PHN. In adults 50 years and older who have healthy immune systems, Shingrix is more than 90% effective at preventing shingles and PHN.”

    Well dumb Uncle Moses got his Mom to get her butt out (or as Sunstein and Thaler say “nudged” i.e. “Get your big butt out there”) to Wal-Mart and get the shot, after dumb Uncle Moses heard it discussed a few YEARS back (before Covid had even hit) on NPR. Don’t you mind it Diane, you’re just a helpless elderly lady. That’s all.

    A very helpless lady. Boo-hoo, boo-hoo- boo-hoo-hoo.

  2. Ivan

    Maybe when Mimi’s social security check is 5 days late (and then 10 days late) the crazies will hear from voters and face a massive backlash.

    We ned something that will help flip the gerrymandered GOP districts. Forcing women to carry brain dead fetuses and ectopic pregnancies until its proven they will be killed by them, is going to move some votes (like suburban women). Refusing to pay the bills and delaying social security checks may do the rest. Remember that a 60-40 gerrymandered district can be flipped if half of those 60% decide to stay home.

    Biden seem to understand that he needs to let GOP hurt their own voters, in order to win a second term with a Democratic majority in both house and Senate.

    Just like with Putin, the President has McCarthy in the trap and is not letting him out.


    Nothing informational about this post. 6 Republicans will bolt out of 13. McCarthy doesn’t have the votes. It’s performance.

    1. Macroduck

      There’s information in market pricing. There is misinformation in Bott’s apparent assumption that legislating in the House is as simple as a bipartisan majority. The Hastert Rule is alive and well under McCarthy. So while history suggests the debt ceiling will be raised, it also clearly suggests that debt-ceiling blackmail is costly.

      I will take the combined views of CDS investors over the unsupported assertions of a serial oinionator any day.

        1. Macroduck

          Kinda full of yourself, aren’t you?

          The issue is not whether the Republicans “have the votes” for default. You don’t vote for default. You vote for an increase in the debt ceiling. Or a suspension. Doing that requires bringing a bill to the floor. Democrats are the minority, and so cannot bring bills to the floor. McCarthy bill is reportedly gaining supporters:

          So your “Republicans don’t have the votes” is just balloon juice.

          Do some learning yourself.

    1. pgl

      ‘The Athletic’s Sam Amick and Josh Robbins conducted an anonymous poll of 54 NBA players to answer a number of questions about players across the league.’

      I wonder how many of these were on the Knicks a couple of years ago. Of course Trae has not fared that well in the Boston Garden.

  4. pgl

    CoRev has been working hard to be JohnH’s BFF of late. Maybe this strange behavior is due to CoRev being another Putin poodle:

    Russia is planning to sabotage wind farms and communication cables in the North Sea, new allegations have suggested. A joint investigation by public broadcasters in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland suggests Russia has a fleet of vessels disguised as fishing trawlers and research vessels in the North Sea, the BBC reports.

    CoRev loves to see wind farms destroyed almost as much as JohnH loves to see Russian troops torture old Ukrainian ladies.

    1. Anonymous

      could they cause as much down time as wind gust blowing clutches, and long down times due to remoteness, and shortages of parts and tools

      would banks be insured against war, and not endure losses from faulty risk assessments of operating burden

    2. CoRev

      Ole Bark, bark, the angriest in and group and weakest link in any chain, claims: “CoRev loves to see wind farms destroyed …” What CoRev would like is to see the lies
      disappear surrounding wind and solar generation costs. Only the weak minded ignore the costs to managing a power grid including intermittent wind and solar.

      Even Texas, one of the best locations for their implementation, is learning that subsidizing wind and solar means subsidizing their back ups. If it were not treu than CA, TX and Germany would have the cheapest electricity instead of some of the highest priced.

      Logic instead of emotion! The liberal mind is an amazement.

      1. baffling

        texas lt governor was paid off to support a $10 billion dollar gas generating plant that will only run about 1% of the time. nobody in the texas energy business, which includes the fossil fuel industry, supported this boondoggle except for the firm who will build it. it was an example of stooopidity in support of natural gas, when even the natural gas folks saw it as ridiculous. you just can’t make this stuff up!

        corev is focusing on the wrong problem, or solution, as it would seem. he is like the lt governor, after the expensive solution. take that $10 billion dollars and invest in battery and other large scale energy storage solutions instead. then you can use them every day, rather than one day every 3 years..

        1. CoRev

          Baffled is still baffled by what nature does and did to Texas. ~221 killed in a singular weather event that this type of fossil fueled backup would lessen or prevent.

          The liberal mind is an amazement. How many more deaths will it take to understand that the liberal renewable energy policy (often termed nut zero) does NOT lessen costs, lower temps, nor make the grid more reliable. But, that’s why it does amaze.

          1. pgl

            I am baffled at your complete inability to write a single coherent sentence. CoRev – try paying more attention to your preK teacher. DAMN!

          2. CoRev

            Ole Bark, bark, seeing in what kinds of comment results from ANGRY denial. Please show all of us what you failed to understand/accept.

          3. baffling

            so corev supports a solution that costs over $10 billion, and counting, that will only be activated about 1% of the time. and will rely on natural gas, the source of the energy failure in the last power grid failure. brilliant economical analysis from the king of stooopidity.

          4. CoRev

            So Baffled supports a solution that costs over $70 billion and counting (not including Fed and state subsidies). All that investment produced on average 10% of the state’s electricity during the storm, about 5 GW, and only 2% at the height of the storm. Just a small portion of that renewable energy investment would have financed a large amount of weather resiliency and natural gas storage, and prevented grid failure during the storm. He now complains of the already too late development of the backup REQUIRED for renewable sources. Another brilliant economical analysis from the king of stooopidity.

            the liberal mind is an an amazement. Especially when they can not accept their polices are causing deaths.

          5. CoRev

            Baffled is truly confused. Inferring this is a good solution: “corev,texas continues to build and utilize its renewable resources”.

            For some reason he thinks that ~246 (revised from previous estimates) Texas deaths from Winter Storm Uri, and largely due to electric grid failures by the renewable resources to provide adequate generation during times of need. Yup, fighting a solution to lessen the impacts of similar periodic weather impacts, makes perfect sense to a liberal mind denying the negative impacts (?246 deaths?) and billions of $s in increased expenses of their policies.

            This ignorant, and in his words stoopid, reliance on renewable resources forces thermal electricity sources out of business, raised prices, and lessens reliability of the Texas electric grid.

            The stoopidity of the liberal mind is an amazement.

  5. pgl

    Based on the projections, India’s population by mid-year will reach 1.4286 billion, compared to China’s 1.4257 billion – 2.9 million fewer – according to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) “State of World Population Report” for 2023.

    World population will pass 8 billion people. US population is likely to be near 340 million people. To keep in mind when people fret that China’s GDP has caught US GDP. Well – yea. Their population is 4.2 times that of the US.

  6. pgl

    Mark Zandi is sounding the alarms with respect to the FED’s tight monetary policy:

    The Federal Reserve must halt its interest-rate increases quickly for the US economy to dodge a recession, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. With inflation falling, the labor market easing, and the banking system remaining fragile, it’s an opportune time for the central bank to step back from its aggressive monetary policy, Zandi said.
    “The Moody’s Analytics outlook is not as bleak, but to skirt a recession the Fed must pivot quickly and end its rate hikes,” he said in a Moody’s Analytics blog.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ Macroduck
        Which part of the Fed minutes was that?? I mean, I’m not meaning to be a smart-aleck (in this particular comment anyway) but what I have read gives the strong indication Austan Goolsbee is the only guy on the board against another FFR raise. And by Fed Res norms of behavior his noises were pretty loud, as in a subtextual “When are you knucklehead sadists here on the board going to join reality!!!!”

      2. Moses Herzog

        Doesn’t strike me they are exactly worried they are about to hit the detonation button for a well-humming economy (by relative standards—i.e. their own ideas of “low unemployment”). She’s cheerily explaining how they are about to royally F— over the American working class:


    1. Moses Herzog

      How can the Fed Res present itself as America’s holy savior if they don’t create a recession to “save” us from. With no recession there is no way to “save” America. Unless the Fed ever wanted to do their regulatory mandate and Greenspan and Powell say “F— that.” Plus the added fun of creating a recession while a Democrat is in the White House. What Georgetown JD jackass could pass up that?? You ever see a 6 year old refuse candy at the grocery checkout??

  7. Moses Herzog

    Did anyone here ever wonder, why President Obama didn’t take one single county in the state of Oklahoma (“the reddest”/most racist?? state in the nation) in two different national elections?? Wonder no more:

    A YT link to the recordings is available in the NPR link after the link jump.

    Of course, there was also the time President Obama came to Oklahoma, and many Oklahoma citizens thought the appropriate reaction was to jeer him and to show up with large Dixie flags. Does anyone know when Peaktrader, CoRev, Ed Hanson, and Bruce Hall are going to move to the Sooner state?? They’d be as happy in Oklahoma as hogs laying in mud.

    1. pgl

      More on politics in your state:

      New secret recording reveals Oklahoma county leaders discussing sexual favors for pay raises

      Last week the McCurtain Gazette News, suspecting that county meetings continued after the public left in a violation of Oklahoma’s open-meetings laws, secretly placed a voice-activated recorder in the room. The conversations that happened when the commission didn’t think anyone was listening included plotting the murder of the local newspaper publisher, including hiring a hitman to carry out the murder. Other topics discussed were barbecuing a body and longing for the days when they could lynch Black men.

      1. Moses Herzog

        Put this in the cabinet file under “red state ‘freedom’ ”

        I imagine the “Sheriff’s Dept” (small town bumpkins playing boy scouts) will be opening itself up to both civil lawsuits and federal investigation.

        1. baffling

          let’s look at the priorities. in Oklahoma, when this situation came up, the good folks leading the sooner state were more concerned about the fact a conversation may have been recorded illegally than they were about the racist commentary. they promptly requested an investigation into the recording. gotta have priorities in order!

          1. Moses Herzog

            I’d like so much to tell you you are wrong, but your statements strike me as factual and accurate. Lack of education and/or backwardness is the cause/ fertile soil of many of life’s ills. And worse if there is a personal pride in being/remaining ignorant. That’s “the Oklahoma standard” in a nutshell.

  8. Macroduck

    Macron is angling for a role in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia:

    The article notes that hope for peace talks in the near term is predicated on the assumption that Ukraine will retake territory in a Spring counter offensive. Maybe, but the stated view of much of Ukraine’s political leadership is that complete Russian withdrawal is a necessary condition for peace talks. That would require a very successful Spring counter offensive.

    1. Moses Herzog


      This is just my very surface impression without reading all the details. I think Macron sometimes shows himself to be very naive. And I think he may have “overstepped” his pay grade of competence at this point. I think Xi sold Macron a bill of goods, and Macron bought it hook line and sinker, and Macron will end up with empty palms, and Xi Jinping got his 15 minutes of positive accolades on the world stage and he didn’t even have to put a nickel into the machine.


      Peace talks are done with Putin. Removing Putin imo is closer than you think. He is losing control.

  9. Macroduck

    We now have three plans to raise the debt ceiling. Biden’s plan is the one most commonly employed till now – just raise the limit.

    McCarthy has finally released a Republican blackmail note, insisting on a cut-then-cap approach to non-military spending:

    And the “Problem Solvers” caucus has proposed raising the debt ceiling and appointing a commission to cut spending:

    Gotta love commissions.

  10. pgl

    More evidence that MAGA hatters are not very bright:

    It’s been over a week since Dylan Mulvaney appeared in a promotional ad for Bud Light, and “anti-woke” crusaders are still upset about it. They’re so upset that they’ve started taking it out on the wrong beer brand. INTO
    Man Destroys the Wrong Beer During Anti-Woke Hissy Fit
    Story by INTO • Yesterday 3:59 PM

    It’s been over a week since Dylan Mulvaney appeared in a promotional ad for Bud Light, and “anti-woke” crusaders are still upset about it. They’re so upset that they’ve started taking it out on the wrong beer brand. At least that’s what happened to one man after throwing a total hissy fit in the supermarket. Unluckily for him, he got “Busch Light” confused with Bud Light, because attention to detail is not in the right-wing wheelhouse. Yesterday, a TikTok posted by the account @chandlerdavidson24 showed a man going absolutely postal in a Kansas Wal-Mart after seeing a certain brand of beer on display. But lo, it was not the “woke” beer that everyone’s been talking about for a week. It was Busch Light, a completely different light ale.

    Bud Light or Busch Light – either way, this stuff is not real beer. Yea – MAGA hatters also drink cheap junk.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Hey take it easy. Us misers need love too.

      So what if my Chinese wine was poorly distilled and some of my Chinese beer probably had some Formaldehyde in it. Darn it, I have my rights.

  11. pgl

    From China to the U.S. to the European Union, rice production is falling and driving up prices for more than 3.5 billion people across the globe, particularly in Asia-Pacific – which consumes 90% of the world’s rice. The global rice market is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades in 2023, according to Fitch Solutions. And a deficit of this magnitude for one of the world’s most cultivated grains will hurt major importers, analysts told CNBC. “At the global level, the most evident impact of the global rice deficit has been, and still is, decade-high rice prices,” Fitch Solutions’ commodities analyst Charles Hart said.

    Rice prices are expected to remain notched around current highs until 2024, stated a report by Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research dated April 4. The price of rice averaged $17.30 per cwt through 2023 year-to-date, and will only ease to $14.50 per cwt in 2024, according to the report. Cwt is a unit of measurement for certain commodities such as rice.

    Yea, yea – it is all Biden’s fault.

  12. JohnH

    “ The earnings recession is here.” Corporate earnings might drop by 6.5%. Horror of horrors!!! An abomination!!! Obviously a fiendish act by Putin!

    After registering margins 8x the margins of the 1950s-70s, I’m sure that they have plenty of cushion built into the P&Ls to weather the temporary “hard” times before resuming the upward march of prices and margins that we’ve seen since the 1980s.. Heck, pgl even suggested that maybe they could get to 24% by 2024! That should delight the corporate shills here.

    But one quick question. Ducky asserted that it was nigh unto illegal to use the word “recession” in any context but an economic recession. But here you see an earnings recession headlined. Is Ducky going to go ballistic like he did when I talked about workers experiencing a wage recession?

    1. Macroduck

      Johnny, it’s so nice to know that you’ve been paying attention. Maybe there’s hope for you, yet.

      However, your re-education is far from complete. While you have often insisted that the economics profession is either responsible or best represented by (it’s not clear which) what’s in the popular press, I have never held that view. Not do I feel responsible to correct every error in the popular press. I have a hard enough time keeping up with all of your errors.

      But Johnny, at some point, you need to take responsibility for your own education. The very first step is to desist from willfully misconstruing the facts. Until you can do that, further progress is impossible. Just ask CoRev.

      1. CoRev

        MD, just show us where I: ” The very first step is to desist from willfully misconstruing the facts. Until you can do that, further progress is impossible. Just ask CoRev.”?

        Raising hypothesis to FACTS is another amazement of the liberal mind. It’s especially true when nearly every prediction of the favorite policies never occur as predicted. Show us the successes.

        1. pgl

          One would have an IQ in the single digits not to realize that JohnH lies – and lies a lot. Oh wait – CoRev’s IQ is in the single digits. Carry on troll.

    2. pgl

      Like our host said – another inane comment. BTW – I see you are lying about what Macroduck has said. I presume your emotional problems are getting worse. Seek professional help.

    3. pgl

      Well you copied and pasted my link to a reliable FRED graph BUT

      “Heck, pgl even suggested that maybe they could get to 24% by 2024!”

      I made no such comment. Come on dude – we know you want to lie like Trump but DAMN!

    1. baffling

      Ron desantis has demonstrated the conservative approach to using the government to address a vendetta. free market capitalism? nah. businesses should be the target of government, based on recent republican doctrine. it appears Florida republicans think it is ok for the government to attack business that disagree with it. does not sound like a democracy to me.

  13. ltr

    “From China to the U.S. to the European Union, rice production is falling…”

    So far as China is referred to, the assertion of declining rice production is incorrect. Rice production in China has been sufficient for domestic consumption for years and has been increasing for years. China has at least 2 years of rice reserves. China has developed a number of hybrid rice strains, with superior yield and resistance to saline conditions. China in recent years introduced hybrid rice to Madagascar, with such success that Madagascar just redesigned currency showing a field of Chinese hybrid rice as background….

      1. ltr

        China does produce a lot of rice but hey – its population consumes a lot of rice. Now [CNBC] suggests production in 2022 was less than it was in previous years.

        [ CNBC is incorrect.

        Chinese rice production was a record in 2022, as was Chinese rice production in 2021 and 2020 and 2019 and…  Interestingly, Chinese rice consumption per capita has been falling as the Chinese diet has become steadily broader.  Also, as with apples or tomatoes or coffee, there are rice varieties and China imports specialty rice and even specialty tea.

        Water was mentioned in another context, so keep in mind that China has been working on water distribution and conservancy projects for decades and this year alone will spend more than $125 billion on water infrastructure and conservancy.

        There was a period of rising pork prices in China, but these price increases were limited with use of reserves and the problem of production was resolved in about a year. Pork production is now more efficient and protected. ]

        1. pgl

          I have provided a lot of well respected sources showing production and consumption. You keep making assertions with no sources.

          I have no clue why you want to argue such silliness. World rice prices are up – and that can be an issue for any nation that has rice as a staple food.

  14. ltr

    October 19, 2022

    ‘Giant rice’ supersizes yields in rural Guizhou

    Guiyang — Shi Xichang has been planting rice in his village of Sanzhou in Guizhou province for decades, but his latest autumn harvest delivered a bit of a shock — his rice grew to over 2 meters for the very first time.

    “This new variety of ‘giant rice’ that I grew reached 2.05 meters, the individual stalks were about 34 centimeters,” Shi, 53, said.

    Planting regular rice produces about 7.5 to 9 metric tons per hectare, but the production of giant rice is 1.5 times that, Shi said.

    Zhaihao township, where Sanzhou is located, has over 1,000 hectares of rice fields.

    This spring, in an effort to increase rice output, the local government experimented planting a new variety of rice in 0.26 hectares of rice fields.

    Shi was one of the volunteers on the project. “Not everyone was willing to try because the yield was uncertain,” he said.

    Developed by the Institute of Subtropical Agriculture at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in 2017, the giant rice is a new rice variety with high productivity, according to the institute. It has taller stalks than ordinary rice, and greater resistance to pests and flooding.

    “We introduced the giant rice variety from Hunan province in May and it grew very fast,” said Ou Junzhi, director of the agricultural technology service center in Zhaihao township.

    “The rice can also provide nutrients for aquatic animals.” …

  15. ltr

    July 22, 2022

    Chinese scientists identify gene that can boost grain yield by 30 percent

    Chinese scientists have identified a gene that is expected to boost grain yield by at least 30 percent and shorten the time taken for rice to grow, says a paper published in the Science Magazine online on Friday. *

    The high-yielding gene, called OsDREB1C, can simultaneously improve the photosynthetic capacity and nitrogen use efficiency while triggering early flowering of rice, according to Zhou Wenbin, leader of the research team at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.

    Zhou, a researcher at the Institute of Crop Sciences of the CAAS, said field trials with OsDREB1C rice were being conducted since 2018 in Beijing; Sanya in Hainan province; and Hangzhou, capital of Zhejiang province.

    The gene led to rice variety Nipponbare’s yield increasing by 41.3 percent to 68.3 percent. In the case of Xiushui 134, another variety, yield increased by at least 30.1 percent….


  16. Karen James

    fwiw, to the Zandi post above. It’s garbage. The Fed is destroying itself as a institution. While it has modest control over short term debt, it’s lack of control over long term debt can be manipulated leverage. So everything can be just spread out more, increasing leverage. If Banks want to lend and business wants to spend, they can and manipulate things to their will. Nothing The Fed can do.

    The recession fear mongers are just about dead. By fall, the Fed will be reducing the Fed funds rate after the oer collapse. To little applause.

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ Karen James
      I don’t agree with everything you said, but there’s not much doubt the Fed can be self-destructive with some of their policies/ FFR decisions. They seem to love shoving babies into the deep water of the swimming pool and right after shoving the baby into the deep part of the swimming pool shouting out “Don’t worry poor defenseless baby!!! We, the Fed, will save you!!!” and then after the baby has turned 3 shades of purple and had its lungs packed with chlorine water they tell the nation that they saved the baby “once again”. Long time observers aren’t buying it anymore.

  17. pgl

    Has the DOJ and FTC gone a sleep with respect to anti-trust enforcement?

    Last week, Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) stock rose 8.5% on reports that the shale oil producer discussed a possible acquisition with Exxon Mobil … After Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP) , Pioneer is the third-largest oil producer in the Permian basin, the oil-rich region stretching across Texas and New Mexico. The Pioneer acquisition would be the largest for the oil and gas giant since the merger of Exxon and Mobil in 1999. It would help Exxon Mobil boost its global inventory and build a dominant position in the Permian Basin oil patch.

    We need more competition in this market – not less,

  18. CoRev

    I haven’t even commented on this article and yet have 5 references?

    Living in liberals heads is an amazement. Why can/do you NEVER refute?

      1. CoRev

        And the senior head makes an appearance. 😉

        Why all the anger? It appears as a defense mechanism after recognizing or recognition denial of the failed policies espoused for years. The liberal mind is an amazement.

        1. pgl

          I trust you realize how utterly worthless your little tirades are. CoRev – find another blog to pollute as you have become a total bore.

          1. CoRev

            Bored? Yet, you angrily respond with childish comments.

            Since Jan, 2021 we’ve lived under your preferred policies, and what has resulted? Inflation, lowered US influence, slowing economy, added unreliability to the electric grid, higher energy prices, and on and on.

            Is knowing that so many of your policies are failures why you are always so angry?

            The liberal mind and the policies they espouse are an amazement.

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