SIFMA Semiannual Survey – the Outlook for Growth

“2023 GDP growth expected at +0.5% (median forecast, 4Q/4Q); 2024 expected at +1.7%” (SIFMA stands for Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) From the Report.


Source: SIFMA, June 7, 2023.

The survey median response is for one quarter of negative growth. In each quarter, there’s always one respondent that thinks that there’ll be negative (or positive) growth, so there’s some dispersion.


Source: SIFMA, June 7, 2023.

As I noted in yesterday’s post, the FT-IGM survey a quarter ago indicated a modal response for recession start at 2023Q3-Q4.

34 thoughts on “SIFMA Semiannual Survey – the Outlook for Growth

    1. pgl

      Kevin Drum’s graph makes this clear. For 2021 Q2/Q3, EU growth was running 8.5% per year. For the next 4 quarters, growth was running around 2.5% per year. So a couple of quarters where real GDP fell a small bit is not horribly alarming.

  1. Macroduck

    I’ve heard the expression “rolling recession” used to describe the recent performance of the economy. It’s not a new idea and there is some logic to the idea. A recession involves a widespread downturn in activity. We have been through a downturn in housing which may be resolving itself – job growth and a housing shortage are helping. We are going through a manufacturing and goods sales downturn. Rail and truck cargoes have declined, though not simultaneously.

    There are leading and lagging sectors – the point to the rolling recession idea is that the leads and lags may be sufficiently strung out in time that the downturn is never widespread at the same time.

    Here are some pictures:



    Household Spending:

    Same sectors, viewed through employment:


    Dunno if the case is made. In the end, it’s always up to NBER. Broad employment, output, income and demand are the NBER’S normal gauges. Spreading out sector weakness through time may be enough to avoid significant, simultaneous declines so that declines aren’t broad at any given time.

  2. Macroduck

    Second quessing the Supreme Court is proving to be a fools game lately. It is thus best to take informed opinion about future court decisions with a grain of salt. That said, Slate has a piece noting that Congress has tacitly approved of Biden’s ability to forgive student debt in the debt ceiling bill. By overtly legislatig against an extension of the pause in payments without denying Biden the power to outrit forgive debt, Congres paseed up the opportunity to declare its opposition to Biden’s assertion of auhority. We’ll see:

    If debt is forgiven as Biden originally intended, tha will amount to (if memory serves) a roughly $190 billion transfer to households over the coming decades. In addition, it improves the credit-worthiness of those households. Student debt is a large impedimnt to mortgage approval.

  3. ltr

    I am bothered about the loss of Medicaid as such, and as a consumption limiting wealth effect:

    May 26, 2023

    Hundreds of Thousands Have Lost Medicaid Coverage Since Pandemic Protections Expired
    As states begin to drop people from their Medicaid programs, early data shows that many recipients are losing their coverage for procedural reasons.
    By Noah Weiland

    Hundreds of thousands of low-income Americans have lost Medicaid coverage in recent weeks as part of a sprawling unwinding of a pandemic-era policy that prohibited states from removing people from the program.

    Early data shows that many people lost coverage for procedural reasons, such as when Medicaid recipients did not return paperwork to verify their eligibility or could not be located. The large number of terminations on procedural grounds suggests that many people may be losing their coverage even though they are still qualified for it. Many of those who have been dropped have been children….

  4. pgl

    Weren’t we told back in 2016 that 6% real growth was possible – by both the very left and the very right? On the left we had that Gerald Friedman nonsense. On the right we had both the false promises of Trump and John Cochrane’s “weeds in the garden” nonsense.

    I just looked at the CBO measure of real potential GDP and it suggests growth should be closer to 1.8% per year. What’s up with that? I would go out and get rid of some weeds but the damn air quality here is AWFUL. Now I would not want to blame climate change as I cannot stomach more of CoRev’s moronic barking.

    1. Macroduck

      I know this is crude as all get out, but prime-age population growth plus total factor productivity growth looks more like 1% than 1.8%. So, extending recent performance i to the future (See? Crude.) we need net new domestic capital investment to add about 0.8% to output every year to hit that CBO forecast. Don’t know how realistic that is, but Biden and reshoring will help for a while.

        1. Macroduck

          Yep, but our immigration performance is reflected in population growth. If I stick to my crude approach of just assuming everythingkeeps on as it has been, I’ve sort of accounted for immigration.

          Optimism on immigration, productivity and net investment could give me a better number, but I’ve built a career on pessimism.

    2. CoRev

      😉 After living in his head fro weeks, Bark, bark says: ” I cannot stomach more of CoRev’s moronic barking.”

      This is what it’s like discussing serious issues with liberals (lifted an modified from another bloggers explanation):
      “Have you spoken to any (liberals) recently? They are complete imbeciles. When you talk with them, they have a different set of logic rules, as if belief is all important and logic is secondary, as a result they will defy your logic in the most absurd ways. I find that they become child like, insulting but not able to back up their insults or explain their beliefs. They certainly know what they are allowed to believe, but they are also determined to prevent themselves from wandering from their religious doctrine. They cannot persuade you of their beliefs because they don’t understand why they believe what they believe, it is like talking to pre-pubescent children who have been indoctrinated by their parents to say that God is Good. Don’t ask the child “why” God is Good, the child will just say “he just is”. (My adds/highlights)

      Now if Menzie actually allows this comment, Yes he has been not showing comments, then your unsupported moronic barking can continue.

      The liberal mind is an amazement.

      1. Menzie Chinn Post author

        CoRev: I have posted every comment you have put up, and with one or two exceptions, within 24 hours (stated moderation policy as indicated by Jim is that we aim to do within that time frame). To my recollection I have never deleted one of your comments no matter how inane, incorrect, or mendacious. I did indicate I would ban you should you repeat a racist statement. Note that I did not censor you when you made unfounded allegations that I hid the “raw” data. You have never apologized for that allegation despite being shown that you were incorrect in your allegations. In fact you have NEVER acknowledged.
        So cease and desist from indicating I have censored your (non-racist) comments, or I *will* ban you.

          1. baffling

            I agree. ban. covid may very well be the stooopidist individual I have encountered on the internet. even chatgpt confirmed he does not argue in good faith. not sure who wastes more good blogspace on this site, him or ltr.

          2. CoRev

            Baffled, McQuack, Ole Bark, bark the simplest solution to keep from having your feelings hurt re: scientific and policy issues is to refute claims and evidence.

            Failing to do so shows your lack of knowledge.

          3. Baffling

            Covid, it is difficult to respond to somebody who denies even gravity. Your comments typically are senseless.

        1. CoRev

          Menzie, this comment just appeared:

          June 6, 2023 at 3:18 pm

          Baffled, the data says what it naively says.

          The desperate, data denying liberal mind is an amazement.”

          And these comments just appeared:

          June 6, 2023 at 3:32 pm

          Baffled, why is it so necessary to show your ignorance. There are names for a house’s component systems. Heat pump is a specific name for a heating system. As indicated by its name.

          You then go on to further ill explain that: “backup heating system was integrated into the heat pump system. “, when you earlier said: ” also had a place with a natural gas steam boiler.”

          Both those components are part of the heating system. You also said: “so I needed a separate set of window units.” These are part of the Air Conditioning systems. I know what you are trying to say. You replaced the window units with a heat pump/HVAC system, and probably kept the efficient boiler heating system.

          The ignorance and desperation to make some obtuse point of the liberal mind is an amazement.
          June 9, 2023 at 10:21 am

          corev, learn to read. the heat pump system was not at the same residence as the boiler and window units. “also had a place” indicates I am talking about a separate residence. not only are you technically incompetent, you are illiterate as well.”

          And yet you claim: “I have posted every comment you have put up, and with one or two exceptions, within 24 hours (stated moderation policy as indicated by Jim is that we aim to do within that time frame). ”

          These are 2 examples in just the past few days. It becomes clear on slowing, older threads when a search by name and/or date makes the multi-day delays obvious.

          1. Menzie Chinn Post author

            CoRev: Sorry, I apologize for 24 < x < 72 hours delay. I observe that (1) you have not identified any deleted comments. Here is an excerpt from the only deleted post (5/25/2023) I have found of your:

            The liberal mind is an amazement. The same people who cannot define a woman, or believe a boy can become a girl or girl a boy, or believe there are a spectrum of genders. These people are not convincing anyone who observes closely and reasons logically, but they are in fact deceiving themselves.

            I deleted that post because of the violation of terms of use.
            Repeat your homophobic/transphobic comments and you will be banned.
            (2) I note that you have not retracted your accusation that I misled readers by posting only manipulated, but not raw, data. Repeat this behavior, and you will be banned.

          2. pgl

            You write a lot of insanely stupid comments. Don’t be upset if our host can’t keep up with your incessant worthless trolling.

          3. CoRev

            Menzie, trying to point out the fallacies and destructiveness of liberal policies points out this situation every time I ask for that list of successful Liberal/Biden policies and get no answers. I guess the liberal policy is if we can’t be proud be silent.
            The deleted comment is an excellent example of the destructiveness of some liberal policies. No one expects a confused and incompletely formed or experienced child to be able to make FINAL gender decisions. I use FINAL, because current chemical and surgical gender transference procedures are not reversible, and yet questioning this child destructive policy violates your blog policy?

            What level of hypocrisy is it when you claim: “CoRev: I have posted every comment you have put up, and with one or two exceptions, within 24 hours (stated moderation policy as indicated by Jim is that we aim to do within that time frame). “, and then give an example deletion.

            Discussing policy, especially their positive and negative effects is essential to improving them. Failure to do so due to their impact on liberal sensitivities is the path to continuing or even amplifying their destructiveness.

        2. Moses Herzog

          Menzie, I noticed when President joe Biden passed the most recent U.S. Budget bill (“Consolidated Appropriations Act”??) There were Democrats and Republicans who criticized the passage of the legislation. I thought to myself “This must be a sign Biden got it pretty close to right in how he handled negotiations”.

          Menzie you’ve been criticized for being “too lenient” in allowing comments, and you’ve been criticized for not banning certain commenters~~I believe Barkley Junior, and pgl at least twice strongly requested I be banned (Barkley closer to 12 requests, one I think was a Barkley demand you ban me, or he’d stop commenting on topic X, pgl closer to 2). There may have been a few others request I be banned. I forgot who they were now it effected me so deeply. Would this be a good indication that you are handling comments “about right”, that you get complaints both of being “too strict” and “too lenient”?? Prof Hamilton sometimes disallows my comments, I suspect on account of being too rude or “ad hominem”. It rankled me at first, I won’t deny it annoyed me, but I think since it is you two’s blog, I “got over it”. It is not my “right” to comment. It is….. I think in the more formal sense of the term, it is a privilege to comment here. Or on any blog hosted by a non-government entity.

          That’s my understanding of “the Constitution”/1st Amendment anyway. Maybe CoRev thinks I should consult radio host Mark Levin, since Levin thinks the U.S. President has the right to steal, keep, and distribute to the public national security secrets?? Levin and CoRev think donald trump is “a King” now?? Is that their reading of “the U.S. Constitution”?? Or just what they wish it to be this week.

      2. pgl

        “This is what it’s like discussing serious issues with liberals”

        Now if we got a serious and honest discussion from you – that would be a first. Dude – you are a worthless troll and everyone knows it. Own it if you ever what to be a grown up.

        1. CoRev

          Ole Bark, bark, refute what I say instead of trolling.

          The author in response to the question what’s changed for windmill construction and O&M following 2 references showing how incomplete and flawed was the Levelized Cost Of Energy model wrote a whole article answering the question with ?COST. That article was solely based on use of the Levelized Cost Of Energy model.

          None of you ever tried to answer the question nor refuted either of the references and the multitude of comments and evidence.

          Is there any wonder why you are being ridiculed?

          1. pgl

            The best comment under this thread?

            June 12, 2023 at 7:57 am
            I agree. ban. covid may very well be the stooopidist individual I have encountered on the internet. even chatgpt confirmed he does not argue in good faith. not sure who wastes more good blogspace on this site, him or ltr.

            You keep proving his point over and over again,

      3. Moses Herzog

        I’m curious…… is CoRev is ashamed of the Republican blogger he is supposedly quoting? Why not name names? If I quote someone in a good or bad context, I nearly always identify who I am quoting. Why the shame??

        1. CoRev

          Moses, why would I be ashamed? I quoted an anonymous commenter from another blog, which I thought was an appropriate example describing liberals and liberal actions. This anonymous commenter has their own experiences with liberal that are similar to what is seen here.

          Ar you just projecting your own shame?

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ CoRev
            I don’t think someone who is proud to be a MAGA member and trump sycophant really has any gauge of what shame means. You have to know the definition before accusing someone of a trait.

          2. pgl

            You are polluting other blogs too? But you can’t tell us which blog you continue to pollute? OK!

          3. Moses Herzog

            @ CoRev
            You refer to the person making the supposed comment as the host of a blog, then in another comment in this same thread you refer to the same person an “anonymous commenter”. Which is it, is he the host of a blog or a commenter?? This is the problem with lying and changing your story as you go along CoRev. The lies become very transparent to people who follow your own words better than you listen to yourself. You should have learned that much from watching your personal hero donald trump being indicted in two different states and well on his way to being indicted in THREE different states.

            I would ask you CoRev AGAIN to please provide a link to the blog you are quoting~~If I wasn’t 98% sure you made the entire episode up to begin with.

  5. CoRev

    Moses, you are just another head in which I live.

    For the rest of you, just another set of heads in which to live. No refutation, no list of successful liberal/Biden policies, pulling on straws (sea surface temperature rising, and stratosphere cooling) all combine to show how weak and inconsequential is your knowledge of subject matters on which you wish the world to spend $ trillions.

    No wonder the liberal mind is ridiculed.

    1. Baffling

      Yes, covid is smarter than the experts in the field, and can teach them about climatology But i bet he calls an electrician to wire his central breaker box.

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