The Wisconsin Department of Revenue’s Economic Outlook May forecast came out yesterday. As the US outlook (from S&P Global Market Insights, formerly Macroeconomic Advisers and IHS Markit) has improved, so too has that of Wisconsin.
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment from April release (blue), from December 2022 release (tan), forecast from May Economic Outlook forecast (sky blue squares), and February Economic Outlook forecast (tan squares). Source: BLS, and Wisconsin Economic Outlook (May, February).
Figure 2: Wisconsin GDP from March release (blue), from December 2022 release (tan), forecast from May Economic Outlook forecast (sky blue squares), and February Economic Outlook forecast (tan squares). Source: BLS, and Wisconsin Economic Outlook (May, February).
How does the DoR forecast compare against a model based on the correlation with US GDP? I estimate a first differences regression for 2005Q1 to 2022Q4; the adjusted R2 is 0.89, and coefficient indistinguishable from one. I show US GDP, forecast, Wisconsin GDP, DoR forecast, and the forecast generated using this equation in Figure 3.
Figure 3: US GDP (black, left scale), May Survey of Professional Forecasters median (red, left scale), Wisconsin GDP (blue, right scale), May DoR Economic Outlook forecast (sky blue squares, right scale), and regression based forecast (pink, right scale), 60% prediction interval (gray lines, right scale), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed (May), WI of DoR (May), and author’s calculations.
Since Wisconsin trend GDP grows about 0.7 ppts slower than US trend GDP (2005-2022), Wisconsin experiences a 0.8% decline in GDP in Q3, even while (in the Survey of Professional Forecasters forecast) nationwide GDP declines almost imperceptibly.
I think it’s often weird how close the parallels are, between Russia and China, and I think American politicians need to, and should have in the past, been conscious of this anytime they are dealing/negotiating with China.
https://www.ft.com/content/797390a5-aced-4c20-b6d7-6bd2a26f9e5a
Macron was incredibly stupid and naive to think he could play patty-cake with Xi Jinping. Macron proved himself a lightweight by trying that stunt with China. Western politicians should be taking notes~~as in “How Not to Deal With China”
Thanks for posting. Steady growth under Gov Evers. Now if only the WIGOP would do the smart thing and approve Gov Evers budget with additional spending for care providers, education, and roads – we can keep Wisconsin moving forward. https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2023/02/15/seven-takeaway-from-gov-tony-evers-wisconsin-state-budget-proposal/69908360007/ (For your non Wisconsin readers – the WIGOP wants to use budget surplus to give a tax break to rich donors) Also – if only the WIGOP would agree to take federal Medicaid expansion money – we could insure more people have healthcare. I remain hopeful but the WIGOP insists on trying to make WI the Mississippi of the upper Midwest. https://news.yahoo.com/bidens-obamacare-funding-shifts-medicaid-100009719.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/28/us/politics/mississippi-medicaid-hospitals.html
March 28, 2023
‘We’re Going Away’: A State’s Choice to Forgo Medicaid Funds Is Killing Hospitals
Mississippi is one of 10 states, all with Republican-led legislatures, that continue to reject federal funding to expand health insurance for the poor, intensifying financial pressure on hospitals.
By Sharon LaFraniere
GREENWOOD, Miss. — Since its opening in a converted wood-frame mansion 117 years ago, Greenwood Leflore Hospital had become a medical hub for this part of Mississippi’s fertile but impoverished Delta, with 208 beds, an intensive-care unit, a string of walk-in clinics and a modern brick-and-glass building.
But on a recent weekday, it counted just 13 inpatients clustered in a single ward. The I.C.U. and maternity ward were closed for lack of staffing and the rest of the building was eerily silent, all signs of a hospital savaged by too many poor patients.
Greenwood Leflore lost $17 million last year alone and is down to a few million in cash reserves, said Gary Marchand, the hospital’s interim chief executive. “We’re going away,” he said. “It’s happening.”
Rural hospitals are struggling all over the nation because of population declines, soaring labor costs and a long-term shift toward outpatient care. But those problems have been magnified by a political choice in Mississippi and nine other states, all with Republican-controlled legislatures.
They have spurned the federal government’s offer to shoulder almost all the cost of expanding Medicaid coverage for the poor. And that has heaped added costs on hospitals because they cannot legally turn away patients, insured or not.
States that opted against Medicaid expansion, or had just recently adopted it, accounted for nearly three-fourths of rural hospital closures between 2010 and 2021, according to the American Hospital Association….
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/26/us/politics/medicaid-coverage-pandemic-loss.html
May 26, 2023
Hundreds of Thousands Have Lost Medicaid Coverage Since Pandemic Protections Expired
As states begin to drop people from their Medicaid programs, early data shows that many recipients are losing their coverage for procedural reasons.
By Noah Weiland
Hundreds of thousands of low-income Americans have lost Medicaid coverage in recent weeks as part of a sprawling unwinding of a pandemic-era policy that prohibited states from removing people from the program.
Early data shows that many people lost coverage for procedural reasons, such as when Medicaid recipients did not return paperwork to verify their eligibility or could not be located. The large number of terminations on procedural grounds suggests that many people may be losing their coverage even though they are still qualified for it. Many of those who have been dropped have been children….
Exports seem to be helping your state’s economy
https://datcp.wi.gov/Pages/AgDevelopment/ExportStatistics.aspx#:~:text=Annual%201%20Wisconsin%20exported%20%244.22%20billion%20in%20agricultural,mink%2C%20bovine%20semen%2C%20prepared%2Fpreserved%20sweet%20corn%20and%20sausages.
The Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection (DATCP) provides statistics on top Wisconsin export markets and products. We obtain our statistics from WISERTrade.
Annual
2022 Wisconsin Agriculture Export Highlights
Wisconsin exported $4.22 billion in agricultural and food products to 142 countries in 2022, an increase of 7% or nearly $280 million in value compared to last year.
In 2022, Wisconsin was first in the U.S. for the export of specialty cheeses, ginseng roots, prepared/preserved cranberries, mink, bovine semen, prepared/preserved sweet corn and sausages.
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2023/06/08/why-are-latin-american-workers-so-strikingly-unproductive
June 8, 2023
The Americas | A land of frustrated workers
Why are Latin American workers so strikingly unproductive?
Blame education, corruption and a huge shadow economy
[ The original headline in this article attracted criticism for the phrase “A land of useless workers”. We have changed it to make clear that we are analysing the social and economic costs of low productivity. Our aim is to draw attention to the structural causes of low average labour productivity in Latin American countries, including powerful oligopolies that mute competition and a large informal sector which forces many businesses to remain subscale. As the article makes clear, all of this is beyond the control of individual Latin Americans, whose living standards have suffered. We end with a call for better policymaking. ]
For half a century economies in Latin America have disappointed policymakers. For just as long, wonks have invented slogans to describe the source of the region’s abysmal growth. First economists lamented a “lost decade” in the 1980s, during which a chain of fiscal crises sent 16 governments in the region into default. The 1990s were spent in the “middle-income trap”, in which, the theory goes, the tricky leap from low- to high-tech industry stops countries from developing fully. Even when, in the late 2000s, commodity prices picked up, muttering began about the “resource curse”, which strikes when energy and mining bonanzas discourage investment in manufacturing….
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2023/06/08/why-are-latin-american-workers-so-strikingly-unproductive
June 8, 2023
“A land of useless workers”
or
Why are Latin American workers so strikingly unproductive?
[ The racism is lost on Economist analysts, but lost as well in the fierce attacks by several prominent United States economists on a sociologist who looked at the continuing legacy of colonialism in Latin America. ]
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Tlbi
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico and China, 1977-2021
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Tlbo
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico and China, 1977-2021
(Indexed to 1977)
Here she goes again. ltr has pulled the trick of exaggerating China’s position by indexing. This is a clear case of lying with statistics. China’s output per worker is considerably less han that of Brazil and Argentina:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1647K
ltr took the additional step of indexing to an arbitrary year to give the impression that China’s performance is better than it is. She has done this before. I’ve pointed it out before. Now, she has done it again. Rather like bragging about China’s limited scientific accomplishments or denying China’s racism while complaining about racism elsewhere. It’s the baldest sort of jingoism. In fact, ltr’s entire “China number 1!” shtick is pretty racist.
If Latin America’s workers are frustrated, or “useless”, then the same is true for China’s.
ltr also told us China leads the world in car exports even though they exported less than $9 billion worth of cars last year. It is like she has become JohnH II.
“China’s output per worker is considerably less than that of Brazil and Argentina:”
ltr has been pulling this cheap trick for years. Now anyone who even remotely understands Solow growth theory has heard of the Convergence Hypothesis. That China is growing faster than developed nations is exactly what one would expect. I tried to tell this to ltr back then and of course she just blew this off.
Since then I just ignore her graphs as being utterly pointless.
— has been pulling this cheap trick for years. Now anyone who even remotely understands Solow growth theory has heard of the Convergence Hypothesis. That China is growing faster than developed nations is exactly what one would expect. I tried to tell this to — back then and of course she just blew this off.
Please tell — she has to read this before any more of her worthless FRED charts.
I just ignore your utterly worthless comments. You are not impressing anyone so you might want to just stop.
[ Notice the crazed ceaseless viciousness. The point being to intimidate and destroy. ]
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202305/1290669.shtml
May 14, 2023
China becomes world’s largest auto exporter in Q1, outpacing Japan: data
China exported 1.07 million vehicles in the first quarter of 2023, surging by 58.3 percent year-on-year, data from China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC) recently revealed, indicating that China has now become the world’s largest auto exporter, outpacing Japan.
China’s total vehicle export value from January to April stood at 7.67 trillion yuan, up 10.6 percent year-on-year, with car exports now playing an important role in the country’s foreign trade structure.
The Waigaoqiao Port in Shanghai saw a total of 231,000 vehicles exported to Europe, Southeast Asia, South America and Africa in the first quarter of 2023, accounting for 40 percent of the car exports, China Media Group reported
In April alone, China exported 376,000 vehicles, surging 2.7 times over the same period in 2022, lifted by strong production capacity of 2.13 million cars in the month, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Exports of new-energy vehicles account for the majority of vehicles being shipped abroad, hitting 100,000 NEVs in April, which is 8.4 times that of the same month in 2022.
Last year, China became the world’s second largest car exporter by surpassing Germany. GAC data showed that China exported 3.22 million vehicles in 2022, increasing 56.8 percent year-on-year, while Germany exported 2.61 million vehicles….
The Solow Growth Model and Growth Convergence
https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/nbairoliya/files/lec10.pdf
You might enjoy this. Please tell ltr she has to read this before any more of her worthless FRED charts.
Interesting that as recently as 2014, Bairoliya chooses unions as an example of an impediment to adoption of technology. Or is that Solow? Trade barriers are also mentioned – particularly useful when thinking about China.
Macroduck rightfully objects to this:
‘Think of government intervention. For example, laws that give unions bargaining power and thus could make firms unable (or even fearful) of introducing new technologies which are not “approved” by unions.’
But wait – what if the new technology shifted out the marginal product of labor. If so, why would a union object?
Yea – these slides could have been better.
https://www.nehabairoliya.com/
I am an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance and Business Economics at the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California. I received my Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Minnesota in 2015. My research interests lie in understanding key economic decisions of households with respect to consumption, savings, labour supply, and health and human capital formation. I am particularly interested in examining the role of family, uninsurable life-cycle risk, and public versus private transfers in governing these important household decisions, both in the case of the US and large emerging economies. To understand how household behavior shapes macroeconomic fundamentals, I build aggregate macro models with rich microeconomic foundations, by combining rigorous economic theory and large-scale survey data.
OK I am responsible for linking to someone who teaches business and finance at USC – LA’s school for rich people. My bad.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TozE
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China and Chile, 1977-2021
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TozG
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China and Chile, 1977-2021
(Indexed to 1977)
Macroduck has called out this cheap trick of yours. Of course I did the same years ago. Which is why I just ignore your utterly worthless comments. You are not impressing anyone so you might want to just stop.
Elizabeth Neumann worked for the Trump Administration – sort of “inside the room”:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/former-dhs-official-trump-indictment-paints-vivid-picture-of-what-national-security-community-dealt-with-for-four-years/ar-AA1cpoUS?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=b15bfcc4de6d497592ebd59170402d14&ei=9
Former DHS official: Trump indictment paints ‘vivid picture’ of what national security community dealt with for four years
Former Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary for Counterterrorism Elizabeth Neumann on Sunday said former President Trump’s federal indictment paints a “vivid picture” of what the national security community dealt with for four years under his presidency. “I found the indictment to be a really vivid picture for the American public of what the national security community dealt with for four years when he was president. He had a blatant disregard, just did not care to follow the rules,” Neumann said on ABC’s “This Week.” “And not only did he not protect our country’s most sensitive secrets, that’s not protecting American lives — because you have military and intelligence community personnel that are now put at risk. You have assets, our foreign allies’ information is put at risk,” she added. Trump, who is running for president again in 2024 after losing his 2020 reelection bid to President Biden, was federally indicted last week on 37 counts, the majority of which are alleged violations of the Espionage Act, in connection with the alleged mishandling of records at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida after leaving the White House. “If you’re a foreign intelligence agency, you know that Mar-a-Lago is a great target and you’re probably trying to figure out what might be there,” Neumann said on Sunday. “Hopefully, we’re finding out what might have been leaked, but this causes people to die. Like, this is very serious, top secret Special Access Programs — when they fall into the wrong hands, people die, and the United States Security is deeply compromised,” she said.
No wonder Putin helped this traitor in 2016 to become the worst President our nation could ever imagine. And yet little Lindsey Graham still stands by this clown who has been and continues to undermine the nation’s security.
Less than a week after Trump had his “no Americans in the room” meeting with Putin he asked for information about our top spies. After that we slowly started losing a lot of our very best spies. Is that a coincidence?
Ukraine’s counteroffensive is on:
https://www.ft.com/content/a09be8b3-0841-4155-a26d-ef126d80986a
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/a09be8b3-0841-4155-a26d-ef126d80986a
Ukrainian forces intensified their counter-offensive over the weekend and claimed to have liberated two villages, after president Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the first time acknowledged that an operation is under way to liberate parts of the Russian-occupied territories in the south-east of the country.
The Ukrainian army said on Sunday that it had liberated Blahodatne and Neskuchne, two villages in south of Donetsk region — which would mark a break in at least one layer of Russian defences south of Velyka Novosilka where counter-attacks were reported last week. Ukrainian soldiers posted a video of themselves raising the country’s national flag on a building in Blahodatne and holding their brigade’s flag in Neskuchne.
Kyiv has long been reluctant in admitting that the counter-offensive had started. But on Saturday, Zelenskyy said that “the counteroffensive and respective defensive actions are under way”. “It’s important that Russia fully feels . . that they don’t have much time left,” Zelenskyy said during a news conference with Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau. The Ukrainian leader said that the aim is to liberate some 18 per cent of occupied territory in south-eastern regions, but that no further details would be made public about the offensive.
Ukraine has done far better than the standard 5-to-1 in regaining territory till now – the rule of thumb is that taking ground requires 5 times the machinery and manpower that is required to defend it. Ukrainian tactics and flexibility on the battlefield had made them quite effective in retaking ground up till the months-long grind around Bakhmut. Optimism around the counterattack has been colored by that early success. Let’s hope that optimism is justified.
At this point, we have no way of telling how the offensive is going. Village counts seem to me a substitute for information about what really matters. Is Russian command-and-control up to the task of dealing with Ukrainian tactics? Can Russian supply lines be interrupted? Who runs low on munitions first? Is retreat orderly?
If we begin to hear credible answers to those questions, we’ll know who has the upper hand.
Another little tidbit of disorganized and incompetent warfare. Russia has had to discard large batches of shells because they were made in a rush (low quality) – so they self detonated.
Ukraine has prepared the battlefield with attacks on supply lines. As with the taking back of Kherson the plans appear solid. However, the expectations should be tempered by the fact that it is very hard to gain substantial territory from a well dug in enemy. One of the reasons the offensive was initiated now was that Russia was preparing more serious defense lines so the risk of beginning a little too early was less than the risk of allowing Russia to further build up defense lines.
At this time it seems that Kremlin strategy has shifted to defend and tire out both Ukraine and its supporters, to accept peace that involves some kind of autonomous region status for the currently occupied areas. If Ukraine can take back 20% of occupied territory in the south east during this offensive wave it would be in a better position to actually tire out the Russians.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sen-lindsey-graham-clashes-with-abc-host-over-trump-indictment/vi-AA1cpivV?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c3b8df28e028468e9bab8845e74e1c32&ei=36
Little Lindsey may not realize this but this interview let the cat out of the bag. Little Lindsey tried to equate Sec. of State Clinton’s email to Trump’s stealing classified documents. Of course the host tried to point out how absurd this was but Little Lindsey angrily screamed LET ME FINISH.
And this is when it got good. Little Lindsey declared he was trying answer this “from a Republican point of view”. In other words, one lie after another in defense of the Traitor in Chief Donald Trump. Little Lindsey cannot be honest because you got it – he’s a Republican.
He cannot be honest because he (for political reasons) is trying to defend the indefensible. Then you get these absurd comparisons of things that are not similar at all. You get rambling word salad sentences that have no connection to reality or to the subject at hand. They invent things and contradict the holy principles the just a few years of months earlier had used against the other side. Little Lindsey got frustrated because he had memorized a “defense” and was losing his line of defense when interrupted.
Maybe Trump should prepare cue cards for Little Lindsey.
That would be entertaining. “Trump is the greatest President ever”. “Trump’s crowds are the biggest ever – and so is his…”. “If you want to become invincible then eat Trump stakes (Ed: you can’t die twice). “It’s all a hoax, unless Trump said it”.
Now I’m confused, isn’t Lindsey already doing this from memorization??
The Supreme Court as participant in the U.S. death cult:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2805787
How three Court rulings, involving Covid safety procedures, guns and abortion, will boost deaths and personal suffering over the next decade. Is or isn’t the Constitution a suicide pact? I can never remember.
Trump is going after Jack Smith’s wife:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-goes-after-special-counsel-s-wife-in-first-post-indictment-appearance/ar-AA1cnWLn
Referring to Smith as “deranged,” the former president tried to paint Smith and the probe as a partisan effort. “Ultimately, these are cowards, they’re cowards. And he’s a big Trump hater openly. He’s a Trump hater,” Trump added, lobbing a bit of his vitriol also at Chevigny. “And his wife is even more of a Trump hater. I wish her a lotta luck but he’s he’s a bad Trump hater and she’s a Trump hater.”
One would think when Trump is indicted tomorrow, a real judge would deny this mob boss bail. Lock him up.
Paul Krugman – Wonking Out: How Low Must Inflation Go?
https://dnyuz.com/2023/06/09/wonking-out-how-low-must-inflation-go/
Inflation has come down substantially. Gas prices are way down from their peak of $5 a gallon. As a recent White House report points out, grocery prices, which soared last year, are currently falling, and may well fall further in the months ahead:
And all of this has happened without a large rise in unemployment. But how far will “immaculate disinflation” go? Will it get us all the way back to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent inflation?
Don’t ask economists. Or, to be more precise, don’t ask us unless you’re willing to wade into a highly tendentious debate. My inbox is filled with confident pronouncements that inflation will soon fade away and equally confident pronouncements that getting back to 2 percent will require a recession and a period of much higher unemployment. My own view? I don’t know. But I am worried that we’ve seen the easy part — and that getting inflation down from 3 to 2 might be a lot harder than getting it down from 10 to 3.
Which raises the question: Why is 2 percent the target anyway? The history of 2 percent is actually quite strange, and there’s a pretty good case for a higher target.
Inflation targets are a relatively recent development; the first central bank to introduce a target was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which sets monetary policy for five million people and 25 million sheep. In 1990 the bank set an inflation target of 1 percent to 3 percent, which was gradually emulated by many other countries.
But blaming New Zealand, while funny, isn’t really the story. What mostly happened was that in the 1990s a 2 percent inflation target seemed to simultaneously address the concerns of two opposed policy factions.
On one side were economists who believed that the essential role of monetary policy — maybe even its moral duty — was to deliver stable prices. Money, after all, is a yardstick we use to measure economic activity, and they argued that this yardstick shouldn’t be constantly changing its length.
On the other side were economists who worried that too low an inflation rate could inhibit our ability to fight recessions. The Federal Reserve and its counterparts in other countries try to manage the economy mainly through their control of short-term interest rates; but these rates can’t go much below zero, because negative rates would just lead people to accumulate stacks of $100 bills. A higher rate of inflation tends, other things being equal, to raise interest rates and makes it less likely that the Fed, faced with a recession, will hit the “zero lower bound” and be unable to cut rates further.
That’s a real conflict of views. By the late 1990s, however, it seemed as if 2 percent inflation would satisfy both sides.
Many economists who believed in stable prices also believed that official price statistics were overstating inflation by, among other things, failing to give full credit to the benefits created by the introduction of new products. For example, the Boskin Commission, appointed by the Senate to review cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security, argued that “true” inflation was more than a percentage point below the official Consumer Price Index. If you accepted such estimates, you could argue that 2 percent official inflation was actually close to stable prices.
At the same time, economists who worried about recession-fighting believed that a 2 percent inflation target would be high enough to largely eliminate the zero lower bound problem. An influential 2000 paper by David Reifschneider and John Williams (now the president of the New York Fed) estimated the probability of hitting the zero lower bound at different inflation rates:
Based on the available data at the time, they thought 2 percent inflation would basically make the issue go away.
But they were wrong. We have, in fact, spent a large fraction of the time since that paper was published at the zero lower bound, even though inflation has in fact averaged around two percent:
True, interest rates are high right now as the Fed fights inflation, but we can’t count on that continuing. So a key pillar of support for the 2 percent rule has vanished. And a decade ago, quite a few economists — including me — were calling for raising the target, perhaps to 4 percent.
Central bankers hate that idea — I’ve been in rooms full of men in gray suits when someone broaches the possibility of a higher inflation target, and the reactions aren’t pretty. But the main concern seems to involve the perception that the bankers would lose credibility; is that a good enough reason to impose high unemployment, if that turns out to be necessary to get inflation back to 2 percent?
Now, my own views on this have evolved a bit. One of the good aspects of the recent bout of inflation is that the public’s expectations of medium-term inflation have remained more or less “anchored” — there’s been no sign of a 1970s-type wage-price spiral.
I don’t think this reflects the Fed’s credibility, because I don’t think many people in the real world outside the financial markets have a clear idea of what the Fed even is, let alone its inflation target. What it probably reflects, instead, is a long period during which inflation was low enough that people no longer felt the need to think about it at all. This lack of attention is a benefit in itself — one less source of mental stress — and also predisposed the public to treat a price surge as temporary, so that it didn’t get entrenched in wage- and price-setting.
So there is, I now believe, a good case for an inflation target low enough that people basically stop talking about inflation. And one encouraging development recently has been a sharp decline in the prominence of inflation in our national conversation. Last October, according to Gallup, 20 percent of the public considered inflation our most important problem; by April, that number was down to 9 percent.
Or to take a new-fashioned metric, here’s the average number of searches for “inflation” on Google, smoothed by taking a 12-week moving average:
So people are thinking about inflation a lot less, and their interest will probably recede even further toward normal as grocery prices decrease.
The question is, how low does the inflation target have to be for the public to lose interest? I now worry that 4 percent may be a bit too high. But 3 percent almost surely isn’t.
In which case, should we be willing to pay a high price to get inflation down from 3 to 2? This isn’t a hypothetical question about a remote possibility. It may very well be exactly the question policymakers face a few months from now. Will the Fed put the economy through the wringer to achieve an inflation target that we now know was based on old simulations that turned out to be wrong?
— also told us China leads the world in car exports even though they exported less than $9 billion worth of cars last year. It is like she has become JohnH II.
— also told us China leads the world in car exports even though they exported less than $9 billion worth of cars last year. It is like she has become JohnH II.
— also told us China leads the world in car exports even though they exported less than $9 billion worth of cars last year. It is like she has become JohnH II.
[ Notice the crazed viciousness, the point is always but always to defame others. ]
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202306/1291963.shtml
June 5, 2023
China’s vehicle exports in April surge 150% to reach 425,000, maintaining strong growth momentum
China’s vehicle exports in April reached 425,000 units, recording a year-on-year increase of 150 percent, maintaining its strong growth momentum, data from China’s Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed on Monday.
Total vehicle exports value stood at $8.31 billion, up 200 percent, CAAM said. It also reported that China’s total exports of vehicles reached 1.49 million representing a year-on-year increase of 76.3 percent over the first four months of 2023, with the total export value recording a 100 percent increase over 2022 to reach $29.68 billion.
New-energy vehicles (NEVs) become a major component of vehicle exports, according to the CAAM.
The sales of NEVs in China accounted for 60 percent of the world’s total in the first four months of 2023, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) said on his WeChat account recently, attributing the achievement to China’s strong supply chain with the domestic market sales and exports both ticking upwards.
Cui noted that total NEV sales worldwide from January to April in 2023 reached 3.54 million, a year-on-year increase of 38 percent. China’s NEV sales in the same period topped 2.11 million, surpassing both Europe and North America.
China now remains the world’s largest NEV market, with domestic and overseas carmakers continuing to strengthen local production capacity, which also contributes to the expansion of local supply chains, Wu Shuocheng, a veteran automobile sector analyst, told the Global Times on Monday….
Here she goes again. — has pulled the trick of exaggerating China’s position by indexing. This is a clear case of lying with statistics…
Here she goes again. — has pulled the trick of exaggerating China’s position by indexing. This is a clear case of lying with statistics…
Here she goes again. — has pulled the trick of exaggerating China’s position by indexing. This is a clear case of lying with statistics…
[ Notice the crazed viciousness, the crazed need to defame over and over and over. ]
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=S9su
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China, India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa, 1977-2021
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=S9sI
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China, India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa, 1977-2021
(Indexed to 1977)
“Please tell — she has to read this before any more of her worthless FRED charts.”
“I just ignore your utterly worthless comments. You are not impressing anyone so you might want to just stop.”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TlbB
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Brazil, Argentina, Chile and China, 1977-2021
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TlbH
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Brazil, Argentina, Chile and China, 1977-2021
(Indexed to 1977)