Here is plotted some time series, from Busby et al. “Cascading risks: Understanding the 2021 winter blackout in Texas,” Energy Research & Social Science Volume 77, July 2021, 102106.
Source: Busby et al. (2021).
For CoRev: The relevant line is the red one.
Yep it ain’t the planned power reductions that kills the system its the unplanned that either were hard to predict or expensive to be prepared for. Thankfully they had a steady supply of renewable energy and next time they will have even more of it to try bail the unreliable gas power plants out of their miserable failures.
I found it comical this paper was ever published. It was well known in the moment that a crappy load forecast plus massive thermal outages were to blame for the unfortunate situation in Texas during the February 2021 freeze. With real-time data plus ERCOT’s SARA, there wasn’t much to (seriously) debate.
Econned: And yet you have people like CoRev arguing that renewables outages were to blame. So obvious, but good to document nonetheless. Many memos in the US government are of that sort.
Menzie Chinn,
You can find people who claim nearly everything but doesn’t mean a journal should publish a review of widely known and easily accessible facts to dispute those people.
Also, this isn’t a memo in the US government.
Maybe this journal can publish ”research” on how much more reliable nuclear is than renewables in grid planning. Or maybe DOE will publish a memo on the topic. Maybe Econometrica will publish “research” on if central banks care about what’s going on in other countries. Or maybe the FOMC will publish a memo on the topic. Maybe the Journal of Political Economy can publish “research” on how poor the US procedures regarding classified documents has become. Or maybe the FBI should write a memo.
I do understand your never-ending ego-driven desire to one-up individuals like CoRev and others… but seriously, did you think through this comment?!?! At all?
Stalker.
You cannot say Econned is a Menzie stalker. It’s against Econned ground rules of stating something “well-known” or “widely known”. And then Econned takes his football and goes home. You didn’t let him play blog quarterback and then all the fun is gone.
Macroduck,
Yes, we know that you’re one of my stalkers and you have now clearly identified yourself as such. As I mentioned previously, your comments which are totally void of substance are going to result in my ignoring you as I’ve done the others who enjoy stalking me in their (failed) quest to seek my attention. I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt – you clearly yearn for my attention and I’ll apply oblige IF you show that you’re capable of commenting with substance. Otherwise, unrequited attention is your future. It doesn’t matter to me either way – as I mentioned to another, it won’t change my activity other than make things easier with yet another commenter to completely ignore.
Your qualifications as a referee? Do you referee papers for the American Economic Review? I doubt. In fact, have you ever published a paper for anything other than the Journal of Basket Weaving?
Is your problem the thorough references the authors did – complete with neat links to Google Scholar for each reference? After all you are so arrogant that you often decide not to reference materials you note.
Speaking of Google Scholar – this paper has been noted by 279 other papers so far. Now assuming you have published anything (snicker) how many people reference your little “contribution”.
in a bit of revisionist history, the political hack econned continues to try and disparage prof chinn while denying the history of the winter storm freeze in texas. why the professional jealousy of prof chinn, econned?
at any rate, lets have at it and show how econned is either a lying political hack or an ignoramus.
https://www.vox.com/2021/2/17/22287469/fox-news-winter-storm-uri-windmills-ercot-greg-abbott-hannity-carlson
in the days after the storm, we had the following on tv blaming renewables directly for the large scale grid failure in texas, apparently oblivious to the real time data and ercot analysis that conclusively showed how such statements were wrong:
tucker carlson
sean hannity
gregg abbott
John cornyn
dan crenshaw
fox news
national shows with a much bigger audience than the referenced article could ever achieve.
“You can find people who claim nearly everything but doesn’t mean a journal should publish a review of widely known and easily accessible facts to dispute those people.”
so you are correct, econned, you can find people who claim nearly everything. seems a lot of them are in the Republican Party. and in government. and peddle in falsehoods and misinformation.
econned: “but seriously, did you think through this comment?!?! At all?”
or are you just a moron and troll?
Menzie, you are reacting to my claim that renewables were below planned performance before the cascading thermal failures occurred, and that was in reference to your article that Wind and solar saved ERCOT in recent 2023 Texas heat wave.
Supporting that contention is the blue (Wind and Solar) line which remained below the SARA planned performance during much of the Winter Storm Uri.
I know your religious belief is widely shared by many liberals here and in the world’s governments, but that doesn’t trump history, which results in the same kind of propagation of these kind of misunderstandings of simple sequences. It is these governments that are subsidizing renewables, and why they can not openly admit their failures. It also explains why ERCOT can not admit that their management of the grid has been imperfect to the point of the deaths occurring during Winter Storm Uri was partially their fault.
These are your preferred energy policies causing adding fragility to grids and adding costs to electricity prices. Wind and Solar require backups. Your solution is to double down on more unreliable or inadequate (15 minutes of battery backup) for a hours, days, weeks long reduction in Wind and Solar outputs.
The irrational, illogical, and unthinking liberal mind is an amazement.
Trump history? Your partisan side is showing up which should be no surprise as what you just wrote is worthless blah, blah, blah.
Menzie, you are reacting to my claim that renewables were below planned performance before the cascading thermal failures occurred, and that was in reference to your article that Wind and solar saved ERCOT in recent 2023 Texas heat wave.
Supporting that contention is the blue (Wind and Solar) line which remained below the SARA planned performance during much of the Winter Storm Uri.
I know your religious belief is widely shared by many liberals here and in the world’s governments, but that doesn’t trump history, which results in the same kind of propagation of these kind of misunderstandings of simple sequences. It is these governments that are subsidizing renewables, and why they can not openly admit their failures. It also explains why ERCOT can not admit that their management of the grid has been imperfect to the point of the deaths occurring during Winter Storm Uri was partially their fault.
These are your preferred energy policies causing adding fragility to grids and adding costs to electricity prices. Wind and Solar require backups. Your solution is to double down on more unreliable or inadequate (15 minutes of battery backup) for a hours, days, weeks long reduction in Wind and Solar outputs.
The irrational, illogical, and unthinking liberal mind is an amazement.
Such an utter waste of time – little CoRev had to say it twice.
“Supporting that contention is the blue (Wind and Solar) line which remained below the SARA planned performance during much of the Winter Storm Uri.”
maybe you need to look at the graph again. the graph shows wind and solar production, not outages. and it is below the anticipated load for only a few minutes over the duration of the entire winter storm. wind and solar performed beyond expectations for nearly the entire winter storm event, and bailed out the thermal sources. contrary to EVERYTHING you have posted about this topic, covid. you are wrong, and an imbecile, covid. stop wasting everybody’s time here.
Menzie, and yet when I review your graph I see renewables dropping from their midday 2/14 peak adding stress to an already stressed grid in advance of the thermal. Perhaps in a unicorn-based management structure this added stress is irrelevant, but in the real world of ERCOT management, that added stress and the ongoing weather stress appears to be too much for the REQUIRED thermal backups to renewals on the grid. ERCOT grid management is the issue, and its failure is obvious.
There have been observations and warnings of failure before Winter Storm Uri, but they have gotten even more frequent since. The defense of renewables has also become even more strident since Winter Storm Uri.
How many warnings and deaths will it finally take, before liberal policy makers see the weakness? Of course that would take a discussion of successful liberal/Biden policies, which has yet to happen at least on this platform.
Speaking of comical – are you still using some restaurant receipt to teach your students about inflation? Oh wait – no one would waste their time taking a class from a Know Nothing clown like you. Never mind.
I agree there was little to debate among serious or knowledable people. However, the false narratives were getting huge press and taking over public debate – and policy making. I think such papers are a great help in giving the informed public something to shoot back at the morons. As Menzie says, look at what is going on here.
Has Econned ever bothered to call out CoRev’s BS? Oh wait – he hasn’t.
Ole Bark, bark, yes he has.
So let me get this straight. A total Know Nothing right wing egomaniac actually had to call out something you said? Damn CoRev – that puts you in the lead for 2023 Troll of the Year.
Note also that the February 15 plunge in output commenced while renewablea were doing nicely. It wasn’t until later in the day, after “thermal plant” (fossil fuel) outages were already severe, that renewables output fell.
CoRev has simply lied about this, blaming renewables for the Texas blackout over and over again. At this point, it’s beyond belief that CoRev is unaware that the effort to blame renewables is a lie. CoRev repeats it, knowing that he’s lying.
McQuack fails again to read a chart: “Note also that the February 15 plunge in output commenced while renewablea were doing nicely.” The chart shows that on 2/15 renewables dropped well below the planned 1,791 MW output. I guess filed planned output is now “doing nicely”.
McQuack’s mind is an amazement.
You can’t have misreading what I wrote so completely without intending to do so. I wrote “It wasn’t until later in the day, after “thermal plant” (fossil fuel) outages were already severe, that renewables output fell.”
I noted the drop in renewables output. You claim I didn’t. You’re a chronic liar.
CoRev takes lying with great pride. He after all has mastered the art.
McQuack, and Menzie renewables started dropping near midday 2/14. Thermal failures started hours later near the beginning of 2/15. I guess only in a unicorn-based liberal view of time is 2/15 later in the day of 2/14. It is sign of pure desperation when a liar calls another who points out the lie a liar.
If you were being honest, you would have noted that ERCOT began blackouts at 1:25 on 2/15 as renewables reached its low peak for the day, and thermal failures had only just begun. Clearly those managed blackouts were caused by thermal plant failures that had not yet occurred on 2/14.
The desperate and lying liberal mind is an amazement.
“For CoRev: The relevant line is the red one.” – Dr. Chinn.
I guess you do not know how to read a graph so let me make this simple for you. The drop Dr. Chinn is focused on is many times larger than the tiny movement you are focused on.
Your like the fool upon hearing his stock portfolio had lost half of its value you celebrate because you found a couple of pennies on the side walk.
Ole Bark, bark reading a graph/chart that shows when the blackouts started and why is fundamental to answer the actual claim/question, what caused the blackouts? For Menzie, Ole Bark, bark, Baffled, McQuack, noneconometist, Ivan, etc: The relevant line is the vertical one on 1:25AM on 2/15. Renewables reached its low peak for the day, and thermal failures had only just begun.
The blackouts were management decisions to protect the grid from catastrophic failure of a poorly managed grid mis-focused on adding unreliable renewables versus maintaining stable base load.
Believing that the blackouts were the result of thermal plant shut down is not shown in the graph. The only source going down at the time of blackout starts was renewables output. I know that doesn’t fit your FAILING (in many way) virtue signalling renewables policy , but it is what the data says.
BTW, when I say failing renewables[policy this graph is more illustrative: https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/World-Total-Energy-By-Source-1965-2022-2.png?resize=720%2C673&ssl=1 From this article: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/07/07/fossil-and-non-fossil-fuels/
The ignorant data denying liberal minds are an amazement.
Renewables were about double what ercot planned from them when the grid shut down. They were not the failure. They were overperforming what was expected.
Baffled claims: “Renewables were about double what ercot planned from them when the grid shut down. They were not the failure. They were overperforming what was expected.” No! Renewables were barley meeting “planned minimums” for the period just before and after ERCOT management implemented blackouts. It was just after the start of blackouts the the thermal plants started to go down.
The funniest thing is that to REPLACE THERMAL plant outputs, ERCOT would need to invest ~35-38 times its current level for renewables. And, your deluded mind insists its not about the failure of renewable to perform during peaks and spikes, but thermals that need to be replaced.
I claim it is ERCOT’s poor management practices mis-focused on adding unreliable renewables to an already fragile grid that caused this near grid disaster.
The deluded liberal mind is an amazement.
“Renewables were barley meeting “planned minimums” for the period just before and after ERCOT management implemented blackouts. ”
this is false, covid. apparently you cannot read a graph. renewables spent hours exceeding twice the ercot expected amount while thermals were already at near maximum outages and the grid had begun to collapse, before renewables fell below the 2 GW threshold. and they were only below that level for a handful of hours during the storm. thermal outages were measured in DAYS.
the line marking the start of blackouts occurs with the beginning of the thermal outages. the grid operator did not wait until the outages occurred to decrease demand from the grid. the grid operator decreased the demand from the grid (blackouts) so that there would not be an imbalance of supply and demand, as they know the thermals were on their way to a cascading shutdown. this move was preemptive, to keep the grid from failing catastrophically.
covid, it is silly to continue to debate with you since you simply are unwilling to accept the true sequence of events.
“I claim it is ERCOT’s poor management practices mis-focused on adding unreliable renewables to an already fragile grid that caused this near grid disaster.”
and your claim is simply wrong. your opinion of things does not change what happened, ghostbuster.
Baffled claims: “the line marking the start of blackouts occurs with the beginning of the thermal outages.” Begins? No, it coincides with the continuing drop in renewables output, which stayed near or below planned planned minimums all during the days Winter Storm Uri. Thermal outages occurred AFTER the start of ERCOT’s MANAGED blackouts. Not before, but after.
Renewables NEED the thermal plant backups to exist on an unrelaibler grid. Thermals do not NEED renewables, unless ERCOT management drops the ball and over emphasizes renewables over thermal sources.
Why did you ignore this: “The funniest thing is that to REPLACE THERMAL plant outputs, ERCOT would need to invest ~35-38 times its current level for renewables.” As proof of ERCOT’s management issue, and the dubious value of your wish to add more intermittent renewables to an already fragile grid.
How wrong the liberal mind can be is an amazement
I have said it before, and I will say it again. I have no problem with disagreeing with somebody, and them producing a sound argument. but these consistent and insistent misinformations and falsehoods by corev and others on this blog should be grounds for banishment. intentionally posting misinformation and falsehoods is not a protected right. it should be a privilege and honor to post on the site, which should be revoked if not taken seriously. our nation is much worse off today than a decade ago, because our internet and airwaves are filled with falsehoods that damage the nation and community. truth should be protected, not lies.
Dr. Chinn’s update put it best:
‘For CoRev: The relevant line is the red one.’
CoRev’s focus on the blue line is his usual distraction from the real issue as he cannot debate the real issues. Chronic liar or CON ARTIST?
“A total of 123 states are committed to the goal of the [Convention on Cluster Munitions], with 111 states that have ratified it, and 12 states that have signed the convention but not yet ratified it.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Cluster_Munitions
But Biden is seriously considering sending cluster munitions to Ukraine…gotta love that ‘rules order in action!’
“The impetus for the treaty, like that of the 1997 Ottawa Treaty to limit landmines, has been concern over the severe damage and risks to civilians from explosive weapons during and long after attacks. A varying proportion of submunitions dispersed by cluster bombs fail to explode on impact and can lie unexploded for years until disturbed.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Cluster_Munitions
And you gotta love the US’ phony commitment to serving as a model of good human rights behavior…something which it proclaims ad nauseum, even as it’s violating them. The US has also used cluster bombs in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other conflicts.
The US’ claim to “model behavior” is hollow…something that is readily apparent to the people of the 133 signatories to the treaty.
And this is relevant to energy production in Texas? Oh wait – you needed to get your daily Go Putin post in. Have fun watching film of Ukrainian women and children being slaughtered. It is what you live for.
You can count on Putin’s pet poodle to leave this out:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-to-send-cluster-munitions-to-ukraine-reports/ar-AA1dyFf2
‘Defence Department officials told reporters on Thursday the Biden administration was considering sending cluster munitions with a failure rate lower than 2.35%. The Pentagon noted that Russia has already been using cluster bombs in Ukraine with even higher failure rates.’
Not once has JohnH criticized Putin for this or any of his massive war crimes. Of course Jonny boy loves to see innocent Ukrainians needlessly die.
Agree. You don’t ask someone to bring a slingshot to a gunfight – unless you WANT them to lose.
pgl’s Golden Rule: “do unto others whatever we want, but whine about it whenever others do the same to us.”
Did pgl ever complain about US use cluster bomb in Afghanistan, Iraq and in other conflicts?
So much for any claims to the moral high ground.
I suggested you could not call out Putin for his war crimes and of course you just proved my point. Hey Jonny – do you actually get off at seeing Ukrainians children being slaughtered? Oh wait – those war crimes are the highlight of your day.
JuniorHighJohn believes he owns the moral high ground. He’s on record numerous times cautioning about discussing punishment for war crimes.See, in JuniorHighJohn World, you shouldn’t hold anyone accountable for committing a crime until you hold everyone accountable. That goes double for counties.
You can invade another country, kill civilians, and destroy property at will but until every country anywhere is accountable for their own misdeeds, you can’t choose one until you punish all.
While 12 year olds cheer, adults pity such juvenile “ thinking” from this site’s biggest fraud who styles himself as an anti war icon who says he finds war unconscionable. Before, of course, he adds “But” and goes off the deep end from there.
Noneconomist misrepresents my point–I want to hold others accountable for their for their use of cluster bombs, but first and foremost I want to hold the United States–the government that acts in my name–to be held accountable, something that most of the commenters here refuse to accept.
BTW. The US sent cluster bombs for the Saudis to use in Yemen, one of the poorest countries on earth. Apparently commenters like pgl and noneconomist have absolutely no problem with such criminal behavior, which is judged unacceptable by the majority of the nations of the world. So much for US pretenses to be a human rights champion!
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/03/world/middleeast/saudi-led-group-said-to-use-cluster-bombs-in-yemen.html
JohnH
July 8, 2023 at 12:04 pm
Noneconomist misrepresents my point–I want to hold others accountable for their for their use of cluster bombs
Jonny boy lies again. Russia has been using cluster bombs since Feb. 2022 in Ukraine. And these bombs have a 40% dud rate. And to date – Jonny boy has not said a word. Not one.
pgl says that Russia has been using cluster bombs since February 2022…but the US has been using them for a lot longer than that…just ask Vietnamese and Laotians, and Iraqis and Afghanis, former Yugoslavs, and Yemenis…and nary a complaint from the faux humanitarian, pgl. In fact, Ukraine used them in Donetsk in 2014.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_munition#History_of_use
pgl’s only defense is that juvenile one that “they did it first,” which is patently false, given the US’ long history of their use.
“I want to hold others accountable , but…”
Surprise? Of course not. He can’t! Sure, maybe Russia invaded and used similar weaponry beginning last year, killing thousands and maiming thousands including children, but…
In JuniorHigh JohnWorld, count on there always being a “but.” Especially when it includes a country and its leader he openly cheers far more than his own.
Not once has pgl criticized the United State for its use of cluster munitions or any of its war crimes…he only complains when the US’ enemies do it!
Who is currently using cluster bombs with a dud rate of 40%? Putin – who you continue to cheer on. You can whine and lie all you want. EVERYONE knows you are a fraud.
“A varying proportion of submunitions dispersed by cluster bombs fail to explode on impact”
It is true that the US cluster bombs have failure rate near 2%. But did Jonny boy admit Russia has been using cluster bombs since the beginning of the war. And their failure rate is a staggering 40%. And Jonny boy did not tell us that either.
Of course the unexploded bomblets are in Ukraine so Jonny boy does not mind that at all as Jonny gets all excited when Ukrainians citizens die.
The date of this story – February 28, 2022
Russia is using controversial ‘cluster munitions’ in Ukraine, humanitarian groups say
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/28/1083616770/russia-is-using-controversial-cluster-munitions-in-ukraine-humanitarian-groups-s
Russian military forces have used cluster munitions — a highly controversial weapon banned by many countries — against at least two civilian targets during its invasion of Ukraine, according to two international humanitarian organizations. Seven people died and 11 were injured in the bombings attributed to Russia, which has been known to use cluster munitions in warfare, possibly as recently as two years ago in Syria. “Russian forces should stop using cluster munitions and end unlawful attacks with weapons that indiscriminately kill and maim,” Steve Goose, arms director of Human Rights Watch, said in a statement. Once fired, cluster munitions open in midair and rain down dozens or even hundreds of smaller submunitions, or “bomblets,” over a large area the size of one or more football fields. The munitions are notoriously difficult to control, striking nearby targets indiscriminately, which is why international human rights groups say they shouldn’t be used anywhere near civilian populations, if at all. A large portion of submunitions also fail to detonate on impact — as many as 40% by one estimate — leaving behind a trail of unexploded bombs that pose a secondary risk to people nearby.
And how many times has JohnH complained about this abusive behavior of Putin’s war criminals? You guessed it. ZERO.
Cluster munition are simply a way to fire 20-100 shells in one shot. Even though each of those shells are smaller, the overall firepower of that one shot gets bigger than when that artillery is firing large single shells. Any shell (big or small) has the disadvantage of potentially being a dud that can harm civilians later if they are let back into an area before cleanup crews have been there. Some of the low quality Russian cluster munition has a very high rate of duds and they neither record where such weapons have been used nor do they attempt to clean conquered areas where they were used.
The deliberate targeting of civilians with weapons such as cluster munitions (making civilian casualties the goal rather than collateral damage) has been done exclusively by Russia both in Syria and in Ukraine.
“The deliberate targeting of civilians with weapons such as cluster munitions (making civilian casualties the goal rather than collateral damage) has been done exclusively by Russia both in Syria and in Ukraine.”
And this is fine and dandy with Jonny boy as he is Putin’s pet poodle. If he says any of Putin’s war crimes are wrong in the least, his Kremlin masters do not give him his dog food.
Not once has pgl criticized the United State for its use of cluster munitions or any of its war crimes…he only complains when the US’ enemies do it!
“The treaty was opposed by a number of countries that produce or stockpile significant quantities of cluster munitions, including China, Russia, the United States, India, Israel, Pakistan and Brazil.”
Huh – Jonny boy adores Putin’s Russia and Xi’s China but they have not adopted this convention either. READ the next sentence from your own link Jonny boy. At least the US is proposing an alternative route. But not Putin nor Xi.
A couple of other matters Putin’s pet poodle failed to mention. Jonny boy has zero credibility as long as he remains the pet poodle of a war criminal.
Not once has pgl criticized the United State for its use of cluster munitions or any of its war crimes…he only complains when the US’ enemies do it!
I harp on 2 electricity issues: 1) grid management and 2) managing by averages. These issues are evident in ERCOT documents. ERCOT uses the measure MW for its source /demand management, but the reality is that electricity use is time dependent making MWH (hours) to better metric for planning. EIA uses megawatthours in its tracking report: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electric_overview/US48/US48
Since planning is important for managing a grid use of megawatthours is important when implementing backup like ERCOT’s ERC, its 1/4 hour battery system. It can be used to smooth electricity flow, but is limited in both sizing, duration availability and availability frequency due to re-charging.
Mis-focusing on unreliable renewables and under sized backups are serious management issues.
This is truly dishonest stuff. CoVid repeated the lie that renewables were to blame for the Texas blackout. Having been graphically demonstrated to have lied, he now moves the goalposts, claiming his intent is to educate the ignorant masses about power management issues. While moving the goalposts, he once again claims renewables are unreliable.
The man can help himself.
At some point one has to wonder whether a corrupt version of ChatGPT has taken over CoRev’s keyboard. His comments after all are nothing more than babbling BS.
McQuack, If you were being honest, you would have noted that ERCOT began blackouts at 1:25 on 2/15 as renewables reached its low peak for the day, and thermal failures had only just begun. Clearly those managed blackouts were caused by thermal plant failures that had not yet occurred on 2/14.
But to a liberal having 200 to 250 deaths associated with a favorite policy does not matter. How many lives will it take?
Renewables were still producing more than ercot had planned for. They were not the cause of the shortfall. Your blatant misinformation is appalling covid.
Baffled, If you were being honest, you would have noted that ERCOT began blackouts at 1:25 on 2/15 as renewables reached its low peak for the day, and thermal failures had only just begun. Clearly those managed blackouts were caused by thermal plant failures that had not yet occurred on 2/14.
But to a liberal having 200 to 250 deaths associated with a favorite policy does not matter. How many lives will it take?
Its like talking to a personalityless rock.
“If you were being honest”
Something CoRev NEVER does.
You don’t seem to get the difference between intermittent and unreliable. Renewables are intermittent sources. Frequencies and magnitudes of their fluctuations are fairly predictable even as the exact timing of such fluctuations are not. If you are not able to deal with those fluctuations we are talking about a flaw in management not in the technology.
It is interesting that from an operational point natural gas is less reliable, even though its regular fluctuations are much less frequent. Because fluctuations in NG are much less frequent, little is done to plan for them. Because the magnitude of NG fluctuations is much larger, it is also more costly to build sufficient backup systems. So managers keeping an eye on profits, tend to ignore NG potential fluctuations – thereby making that source less reliable.
those focusing on renewables are very aware of the distinction between power (kW) and energy (kW-h). that is why people looking at the smart grid combine renewables with energy storage. and those like you, covid, think the solution is a new natural gas plant that sits idle 99% of the time. foolish.
Baffled those confused about demand peaks and demand spikes think: ” think the solution is a new natural gas plant that sits idle 99% of the time. foolish.” Peaks occur daily and spikes occur with weather stresses. Your confusion seems to think p demands are met by renewables. No, not today and probably never in the future, and the chasing the renewables dream causes deaths, unnecessary higher prices and economic stress for the world’s poor. At least you unicorn chasing idiots feel good about your virtue signalling.
Your ideas are not only bad, wrong, but dangerous. How many $trillions and how many deaths will it take for the rational members of the world to put a stop to the craziness you folks espouse?
The crazy liberal mind is an amazement.
Gee CoRev – JohnH still has a big lead for 2023 troll of the year. Keep it up with your BS as you are still far behind.
Peaks are met by energy storage, such as battery or water gravity systems. Not a difficult problem to overcome. Peaks can also be handled by smart grids and improved energy usage. Efficiency should be built into our energy usage. In texas, you can get electricity plans that allow you to buy power on nights and weekends-lower demand times- for basically free. Great time for a home battery to recharge. Plenty of solutions for those that are not simply resistant to change.
Baffled, why do all your solutions add costs to the homeowner? Why do you ignore the direct costs needed to replace fossil fueled plants? Why do you not know that replacing those fossil fueled plants with renewables and batteries will increase grid cost a by a factor of ~35-38 times? Why do you not know that the poorest of Texas citizens would be the most hurt by your solution?
What do you know other unproven technology to perform when needed? Why do you want to hurt the poor?
The ignorant liberal mind is an amazement.
covid, I am simply building new. if I have an old and dirty plant, why would I build a new and dirty plant? foolish. when I need to build new capacity, I am simply choosing to build using renewables. there is no reason I need to build a new gas plant, simply because the old one that is unreliable and shutting down is coal or gas. you fail to understand this distinction. there is always a cost to building new infrastructure. that would be true of a new gas plant as well. texas now wants to build $10 billion dollars of natural gas plants that it will rarely use. wasteful spending.
I recently drove through the corpus christie area of texas. hundreds, if not thousands, of wind turbines all along the trip. its the wave of the future in republican texas, baby.
Biden appoints Elliot Abrams– “few people are less appropriate to be appointed to anything related to diplomacy than Abrams, best known for facilitating and covering up many years of grisly human rights atrocities racked up over the course of the Reagan administration’s covert wars on the Left in Central America. As career foreign services officer Frank McNeil put it, Abrams “practices the Doberman Pinscher school of diplomacy.” https://jacobin.com/2023/07/elliott-abrams-war-crimes-acpd-reagan-biden-cold-war
Sounds like Biden is abandoning any US pretenses about human rights…
Is he getting desperate?
This one time, I have to agree. Abrams, for f%*” sake.
When Trump asked Abrams to direct the campaign to replace Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro – did they involve mercenaries filibustering the Senate or invading Venezuela? After all you are so stupid you think these two different events are the same thing.
Pat Leahy and Jeff Merkley make the case against supplying cluster munitions to Ukraine: “The impact of cluster munitions on innocent civilians persists for weeks, months, even years, sometimes long after a conflict ends. These weapons are designed to disperse swarms of small submunitions, known as “bomblets,” over large areas, causing widespread death and destruction. To make matters worse, they often fail to explode as designed. Russia’s use of cluster munitions in Ukraine killed and wounded hundreds of civilians between February and July 2022. In Laos and Vietnam, some of the tens of millions of unexploded U.S. cluster munitions deployed more than 50 years ago continue to maim and kill civilians. As senators, we traveled to Vietnam, where we witnessed firsthand the devastating and long-lasting effects these weapons have had on civilians.” https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/07/remembering-history-texas-generation-outages-in-the-2020-crisis?replytocom=301317#respond
But pgl, the faux humanitarian, sees no problem.
“But pgl, the faux humanitarian, sees no problem.”
Your need to LIE about what I believe is just sad. I do see a serious problem when one nation invades another and uses cluster bombs with a 40% dud rate. Now pray tell little Jonny boy – whose bombs have such a high dud rate? It’s the invading nation – RUSSIA.
And Jonny Low Life has not criticized Putin’s war crimes even once.
But keep on lying about my position. If you haven’t notice – EVERYONE here is calling you out. EVERYONE.
” As senators, we traveled to Vietnam, where we witnessed firsthand the devastating and long-lasting effects these weapons have had on civilians.”
When I was in high school, I took to the streets to oppose this war. Jonny boy was nowhere to be found. In fact Jonny boy only once saw a protest of the 2003 invasion of Iraq and this coward’s response was to duck into an eating establishment to have dinner. But Jonny boy wants to bring up the past to prove his anti-war creds? Yea – right.
Self styled anti war icon, JuniorHighJohn, never mentioned the extensive use of cluster bombs by Russia IN UKRAINE. With the exception of the Russian invasion of Ukraine , he finds war unconscionable and the potential use of cluster bombs by Ukraine more than unconscionable.
Surprise?
JuniorHighJohn never even brought up the use of cluster bombs by anyone at any time until it seemed Ukraine might get the weapons they need to defend themselves against Putin’s war criminals. Poor little Jonny – the ability of his buddies in the Kremlin to rape and murder innocent Ukrainians is about to be hampered. What is little Jonny boy going to do for excitement now?
Let’s go back to the failed logic of the self styled anti fossil fuels advocates here. Winter Storm Uri’s affect on Texas is a good leaning tool.
1) You want to replace fossil fuels with renewable sources without considering cost and price impacts.
2) How much NEEDED over building does Winter Storm Uri’s affect on Texas? Peak demand was ~70MW. Renewables outputs planned averages was ~2MW (70MW/2MW=35 times current build). Even that is insufficient, because renewables outputs dropped below that planned average amount.
3) You want to replace fossil fueled Internal Combustion Engine vehicles with Electric Vehicles. The further increases electricity demand, also increasing the over build factor and grid costs.
4) Unless and until that over build is completed, renewable energy will require those same fossil fueled backups.
5) Today’s prices just for renewable electricity in Texas was ” $31/MWh in ERCOT” using the incomplete and flawed levelized cost model. “Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentive, vary across time and geography. ”
https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-technologies-market-report Levelized costs also exclude the costs of the NEEDED thermal backups.
6) Ignoring Weather Stress SPIKES on a grid is expensive: “Prices at all electricity trading hubs were higher in 2022 compared with 2021 except in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). In February 2021, the average electricity price in ERCOT was $1,800 per megawatthour (MWh), pushing ERCOT’s annual average electricity price in 2021 higher than in 2022, due to Winter Storm Uri.” https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55139
7) Summing these impacts of an illogical and ill-advised reliance on renewables requires surmountable expenses to electric grids for no gain in replacing fossil fuels world wide. These expenses are so high that they will never be met.
For an economics blog not admitting or even acknowledging the fundamental economic factors, and needing to lie about costs by using Levelized Cost is hypocrisy. Refute my facts!
The hypocritical and willfully ignorant liberal mind is an amazement.
and covid doubles down on spending billions on natural gas plants that will address a few hours of shortfalls a year. brilliant economic policy from an complete idiot. spend billions on plants that will sit idle 99% of the time. pretty expensive source of electricity, covid. just in time energy production is about as good as just in time supply chain logic.
Baffled, another totally irrelevant, confused and non-responsive comment. You’re still confusing peaks with spikes. Peaks occur usually twice daily. Spikes for Texas usually occur several times per year due primarily to weather. ERCOT spent/paid +$8.77B for the month of Feb 2021. That was ~58 times the Oct high of ~$155M for 2021. Now that’s a spike, and it cost `200 -250 Texans their lives.
You seem to complain about spending $billions for nat. gas plant sources to add reliable to the grid, but ERCOT has shown it will spend $billions a month to support a grid that is unreliable due to relying on intermittent sources. Pg 16 of https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2023/01/18/ERCOT-Monthly-Operational-Overview-December-2022.pdf
If you think adding renewables is the solution for a reliable grid then you want to increase renewables by ~35-38 times current build to supplant fossil fuel sources. That’s ~35-38 times current investment to add them.
and the misinformation continues from covid.
Baffled,citing ERCOT data is misinformation?
The failure to admit the validity of data is an amazement
when blackouts began, renewables were contributing over 4 GW of power, and kept that level until the next evening. ercot planned on only having 2 GW from renewables. so renewables doubled their expected contribution at the onset of blackouts, and for over 12 hours after the fact. that is what the ercot data says, covid. natural gas lost over 20GW of supply before renewables ever fell below their expected output. that is what the ercot data says, covid.
Baffled wow! You claim that: “renewables were contributing over 4 GW of power, and kept that level until the next evening. ” So what about that remaining 66MW of demand? Prior to the blackouts it was mostly, ~40-45MW, being provided by thermals.
ERCOT was still getting frequent wind forecasts, and was expecting this fall of in renewables production. They did not have any way to forecast thermal fall off. So when they started blackouts there was no fore knowledge of thermal failures. Even NERC says the blackouts caused the partial gas failures, of 12 and 27%. Thermal failures cause and effect or exacerbated by blackouts?
BTW when does 4MW solve any shortfall when demand is~70MW? Renewables are not fit for the purpose. To make them useful they need to be increased by 35 -38 times their 2021 implementation.
Dodging the renewables must be increased by 35 -38 times their 2021 implementation issue is an amazement of the liberal mind.
“They did not have any way to forecast thermal fall off. So when they started blackouts there was no fore knowledge of thermal failures.”
first, let us be clear. we are talking about GW of energy. you keep referencing MW, which is incorrect by three orders of magnitude.
second, there was fore knowledge of thermal failures. it is discussed in all of the literature, if you had ever bothered to read it. the reason we did not have a catastrophic failure of the grid, is because the grid was shut down prior to those thermal failures. the grid operators knew the thermal systems were going down. if they had kept the grid open while the thermal plants shut down, that would have created the unbalance in the grid that results in physical destruction of transformers and substations, the action ercot needed to avoid. that would have created a months long blackout as failed equipment would have needed to be replaced.
“Even NERC says the blackouts caused the partial gas failures, of 12 and 27%.”
as I pointed out in the other post, that NERC reports is for an event in 2011, not 2021. those numbers do not apply to the 2021 event. if you have actually read the linked document, it would have been apparent because the first page clearly says the date of 2011. so no, in 2021 you are absolutely incorrect to argue the blackouts caused the gas failures. those failures started before the blackout. they were the cause of the blackout. improve your reading comprehension.
covid, your lack of understanding of the events of 2021 is simply astounding. stop believing in ghosts and pay attention to what you read!
Baffled GW versus MW? How desperate are you? ERCOT’s data says this: “PUBLIC
Highlights, Records and Notifications
• ERCOT set a new all-time winter peak record of 74,427 MW* in the
month of December on 12/23/2022; this is 4,615 MW more than the
previous winter record of 69,812 MW set on 2/14/2021. This is 25,235
MW more than the December 2021 demand of 49,192 MW” https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2023/01/18/ERCOT-Monthly-Operational-Overview-December-2022.pdf
While you are trying to find the appropriate FERC/NERC report blame Menzie for the confusion: “Clearly, electricity generators and natural gas providers were the problem in reduced supply during the winter crisis of 2021, according to the FERC/NERC report.” Which pointed to the 2011 report.
Baffled your addled brain is an amazement.
“So what about that remaining 66MW of demand? Prior to the blackouts it was mostly, ~40-45MW, being provided by thermals.”
“2) How much NEEDED over building does Winter Storm Uri’s affect on Texas? Peak demand was ~70MW. Renewables outputs planned averages was ~2MW (70MW/2MW=35 times current build)”
“BTW when does 4MW solve any shortfall when demand is~70MW?”
covid, multiple posts you referenced MW rather than GW. it tells me you have absolutely no feel for the magnitude of the numbers you cite. YOU posted those MW numbers, and are wrong.
“While you are trying to find the appropriate FERC/NERC report blame Menzie for the confusion:”
I pointed out the issue in that post. I also actually looked at and read the report. so it was very obvious to me. apparently you are too sloppy to read and absorb at the same time, covid.
still believe in those ghosts? fool.
Baffled you continue to mis-cite ERCOT who uses MW and NOT GW for measurement. BTW they manage by using MWHs which are bought on the open market to meets demand and sold and billed by them fractionally to their customers in the form of KWhs. Please get your metrics correct. While you are at that effort try to separate those renewables versus other electrons entering your domicile to fit your billing program.
Your desperation and weakening infantile arguments are fascinating.
The fascinating liberal mind is an amazement.
“Baffled you continue to mis-cite ERCOT who uses MW and NOT GW for measurement.”
no. I quoted your use of them, explicitly.
Can someone tell this confused aussie why windmills work very well in Antarctica but cannot in texas when it snows despite being warned about the problem previously.
Are texans that stupid?
Not Trampis, I guess Texans are just as stupid as Australians, although, Australians trust that solar will overcome renewables inherent faults.
I continue to ask: at what cost in lives and money?
Dakota operated windmills seem to operate better than texas windmills. do the Dakotas know something texans don’t?
You ask this after winter Storm Uri? Does the Dakotas do better during the Winter than Texas?
wind turbines in the Dakotas routinely operate through the same winter conditions seen in texas during the storm. that is not even up for debate.
Texas still has government representatives that act and think like corev. Need i say more? Even when a solution is staring them in the face, their ideology keeps them from making the proper choice, sometimes.
The short answer is: Yes
The longer answer involves a mixture of willful ignorance and short-sighted profit motives. It has been said that the GOP should never be in charge of government or any public activity – because they are convinced that government “doesn’t work” and hellbent on proving it whenever they get a chance. It also is true that any attempt to make the grid more resilient is going to cut into profits – and it is easy to just blame renewable energy for the failures caused by lack of investments in resilience.
Ivan, adding unreliable renewables does not add resilience to a grid. Winter Storm Uri proved that taking attention away from grid reliability cost lives in Texas due to mis-focusing attention to renewables over all other sources.
“I found it comical this paper was ever published. It was well known in the moment that a crappy load forecast plus massive thermal outages were to blame for the unfortunate situation in Texas during the February 2021 freeze. ”
and yet econned remains silent in correcting people like corev, who continue to promote that very misinformation on this site. covid is simply spitting in your face, econned, and you seem to like it.