Courtesy of Paweł Skrzypczyński:
Note that y/y supercore inflation is higher in previous months, even if decelerating in August.
Courtesy of Paweł Skrzypczyński:
Note that y/y supercore inflation is higher in previous months, even if decelerating in August.
The most-revised series looks to be real personal income, ex-transfers. Perhaps as a direct result, the stock of excess saving is also revised higher, though the trend is still downward. Both of these facts give a slightly roster look to future consumption.
Johnny may insist that higher real income doesn’t count because women are working in greater numbers than in the 1970s – something he seems to think nobody knew until he told us. Or maybe he’ll offer some other distraction this time. But the fact is that real income is in somewhat better shape than we had previously known. It is, of course, the rise in real wages that has supported real GDI in recent quarters, as profits have declined – something Johnny seems to have missed until it was pointed out to him, and ignored since it was pointed out to him. We can rely on Johnny to fuss and fume about an issue till he’s proven wrong, then ignore the proff and the issue once the evidence is in. His Russian masters don’t mind.
Let’s put on top of that the revised GDP data implies that the output gap in Q2 was most likely positive after all, 0.6% when transforming current CBO y* estimate to 2017 chained USD or 1.0% when doing reverse (changing current real GDP in 2017 chained USD to 2012 chained USD). I bet Menzie checked it and we’re just about to get a post on that as well.
P.S. Thanks for posting my charts.
Thanks for doing the hard work that contributes to the overall blog. Go Poland!!!!
Poor Ducky, data challenged as usual, trying to put lipstick on a pig. According to the latest FRED data real median personal income is up 0.15% since before the pandemic…and this in an extraordinarily tight labor market, a time when economists have assured us that real wages are supposed to increase! (Of course , the data may have improved slightly since 2022, something for which Ducky can produce no evidence.) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI
And in his usual, deceptive manner, Ducky chooses to ignore the distribution of personal income, even though we know that income gains go overwhelmingly to the Top 10%, not to the broad workforce. But don’t worry, per Ducky, be happy, because we should all be very happy that affluent folks like Ducky are making out as usual!
If Tricky Ducky is trying to spin the situation in Democrats’ favor, well, it isn’t working. “A new NBC poll shows Republicans currently favored over Democrats on handling the economy by an astounding 21 points, the largest lead Republicans have had on this measure since 1991. That tells you about how well the Bidenomics messaging campaign is working so far. The Democrats would be wise to try a different approach—one that doesn’t rely on telling voters they should be happy when they are not.” https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-bidenomics-pitch-falls-flat
Instead of advising working Americans to NOT believe their lying eyes, and “don’t worry, be happy,” Democrats would be well advised to devise and promote a coherent economic message that clearly benefits the many, not just the few. Unfortunately, even if they were able to contrive such a miracle, their track record makes it pretty clear that they would never bring the program to a vote.
Oh Lord – little Jonny is still relying on an old and outdated version of ChatGPT. Now I get Princeton Steve has to write a lot of disjointed fluff so little Jonny feels compelled to do the same.
“It is, of course, the rise in real wages that has supported real GDI in recent quarters, as profits have declined – something Johnny seems to have missed until it was pointed out to him, and ignored since it was pointed out to him.”
Is this what set little Jonny boy off? Now I made this point to you many times putting your lying lazy rear end to the BEA tables that track this stuff. And little Jonny boy never replied beyond making the idiotic claim that I had no clue why real GDI behaved it did. NO Jonny boy – you are the clueless wonder of all time.
Now Jonny boy – I guess I should feel bad for you that you are total effing moron and Macroduck has to set you straight over and over. But guess what dude – I do not feel sorry for clowns you choose never to grow up.
The rise in real wages? pgl must be referring to the 0.9% increase in median usual weekly real earning since 4Q2019. Meanwhile corporate profit margins increase from 12% to 15.6%. Big windfall to wages [NOT!!!]
Apparently pgl never understood what corporate pofit margins are….
Dude – learn to read BEA tables. NIPA table 10.1 was the data Macroduck mentioned and I documented for your stupid lying lazy rear end. Damn – you really the dumbest troll God ever created.
“Meanwhile corporate profit margins increase from 12% to 15.6%”
Meanwhile? Macroduck was referring to corporate profits and over a specific time period. What does Jonny boy do – pull a statistic out of his rear end forgetting to mention the time period or even his source. Yea – Jonny boy may be a liar but he has to be the dumbest liar ever.
I write:
“We can rely on Johnny to fuss and fume about an issue till he’s proven wrong, then ignore the proff and the issue once the evidence is in.”
Johnny continues to ignore his error regarding the composition of real GDI, which shows healthy real income growth, just as I said he would. Instead, he changes the subject to real median personal income. OK, but let’s recall Johnny once assured us that there were no official data on real median personal income. And it was such a SCANDAL!!! Economists were HIDING SOMETHING! Then it was pointed out to Johnny that the series does exist. Not that he has ever admitted the error.
Let’s look at what else Johnny thinks he knows. Johnny claims that I’m affluent. We’ve only ever crossed paths in the comments section of this blog, but Johnny claims to know that I’m rolling in it. Why would Johnny pretend to know something he can’t possibly know? That’s just the kind of guy Johnny is.You know, dishonest.
And then there’s “If Tricky Ducky is trying to spin the situation in Democrats’ favor,…” That’s just a clumsy effort to change the subject. All I wrote about was teh data, and about how Johnny would probably try to say something dishonest about the data. Johnny turned the subject to politics, but wants to pretend that I did. That’s Johnny – he loves to pretend.
“Attention deficit disorder (ADD) is an outdated term sometimes used for the inattentive type presentation of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). ADHD is a neurotype characterized by traits inattention, impulsivity, and hyperactivity. The term ADD is often used to describe people with inattentive and impulsive traits but without characteristics of hyperactivity.”
https://www.verywellmind.com/add-and-attention-deficit-disorders-2161810#Add%20vs.%20ADHD:%20What's%20The%20difference?
I was going to say Jonny boy is the poster child for ADD but maybe ADHD is a better description for his insanity.
Articles like this one will save us from the misleading avenues know-nothings of the Cape Cod area might tour guide us on.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/how-serious-is-russias-fuel-export-ban-who-will-be-hit-2023-09-27/
Sanctions get a lot easier when the country being sanctioned is helping.
This “Airlander” helium thing put out by Hybrid Air Vehicles is really mesmerizing stuff. I tell you, If I had deep pockets like a Warren Buffett, Sam Zell in his heyday, I’d be figuring out how I could get a piece of action in this as quick as they promised me a section of equity in the company. Pretty exciting stuff.
Off tInterstingopic, piece in Foreign Affairs entitled
“Why Xi Jinping Doesn’t Trust His Own Military”
Interesting, but maybe not entirely convinving. The article contains a good number of sentences like this:
“The disappearances (of senior Chinese military officers) suggest that Xi’s hold over the PLA might be less complete than imagined.”
“Suggest” and “less complete than imagined” aren’t big confidence builders for me. When I run into an article outside my area of expertise and think “I could have writen that”, I worry. Still, Xi’s regular purges of bureaucrats, tech officials, bankers, billionaires and generals mean something and China is too important to ignore red flags like this. Is the purge of military officers a symptom of some particular problem with the military, or is Xi simply paranoid and purge-happy?
The gist of the article is that if (rather “since”) Xi distrusts his senior officers, he also distrusts the military’s ability to do what those officers claim it can do. So maybe adventurism is less likely “than imagined”.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/why-xi-jinping-doesnt-trust-his-own-military
All dictators distrust their military. That is why Putin had dozens of different militaries. Unfortunately it is just hellishly difficult to fight a war with dozens of (competing) militaries. So now Putin is in the process of putting them all under the command of his Department of Defense. Xi will weaken his military by these purges, but they will be more capable if he keep them under a single command structure.
As far as Number 1 leaders of China go, Hu Jintao was about as harmless and unassuming as they get. When Xi made a production out of publicly embarrassing Hu, that’s a huge indication Xi Jinping is not “cleaning house” but rather “flexing his muscles”. There are other signs Xi is bad news~~legitimate reformers inside the CCP power structure taking “early retirement”. But carting off Hu Jintao like he just got caught shoplifting premium steaks in his trousers was a visually glaring one.
When Menzie mentioned supercore, I assumed it had something to do with the pelvic region during workouts at Gold’s Gym. Turns out it’s something totally different:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/dips-core-supercore-inflation-could-bolster-fed-hold-2023-09-29/
Supercore needs a catchy theme song.
Has kind of a 1970s sensibility to it, doesn’t it?? Like “Shaft”, or “Coffy”. The theme/score has to be done in a kind of Delfonics homage. Keith David as the leading man role with some hair dye etc making him play 15 years younger than his real life age. During the daytime he’s a criminal defense attorney for Blacks and those of low socioeconomic status wrongly accused of street crimes. At dusk he transforms into rescuer of defenseless street people~~~”Supercore”