Business Cycle Indicators, as of 9/1

With the employment release, and the monthly GDP from SPGMI, we have the following picture of key macro indicators.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 8/31 assuming no revisions to previous months (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), 2023Q2 is GDPNow of 8/31, all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 second release via FRED, Atlanta Fed, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (9/1/2023 release), and author’s calculations.

With the preliminary benchmark in, knowing how BLS will “wedge in” the March 2023 downward revision of 306K, the best guess of the current NFP series is slightly downshifted, but doesn’t really change the picture of continuing growth.

Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 8/31 assuming no revisions to previous months (blue +), implied preliminary benchmark NFP (bold teal), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 second release via FRED, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (9/1/2023 release), and author’s calculations.

12 thoughts on “Business Cycle Indicators, as of 9/1”

  1. pgl

    “Cannibalize each other” – Trump’s legal team allegedly wants to place blame on Eastman and Giuliani to fight election charges

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/lifestyle-buzz/cannibalize-each-other-trump-s-legal-team-allegedly-wants-to-place-blame-on-eastman-and-giuliani-to-fight-election-charges/ss-AA1g8umw?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=0b8fe9f9083842a884cf55d1ac034a92&ei=11

    ‘Rolling Stone reported that Trump’s defense would not hold back from throwing John Eastman and Ruddy Giuliani under the bus, and according to the source, Trump’s on board with this plan.’

    Trump would sell out his own mother.

    2. Ivan

      Both are telling people that they cannot afford to defend themselves. I think they are ready to be offered a deal from the prosecution.

    3. Ivan

      It would seem like the logic way to go, but it also seems like the prosecutors are ready for it. Trumps lawyers will claim that those two guys told him he had been cheated and legally could do what he did (to defend democracy). So he did not knowingly brake any laws. But from what I can see the prosecutors have collected a lot of evidence that Trump was told he had lost AND realized he had lost. That would also mean that he no longer could credibly claim that he was defending democracy. I think his lawyers have an uphill battle. They better start planning for the appeals. I am sure they can drag it out long enough that the old fat unhealthy guy get to die a natural death outside of prison.

    1. Ithaqua

      I think of this, and the general “invest in almost-useless infrastructure upgrades” approach they’ve been taking for quite a few years, as rather like the WPA from the Great Depression, only the WPA projects built parks and other stuff that people even today can enjoy (there’s one such about 0.1 miles from my house, in fact.) I wonder if the leadership in China does too, and if they have a plan for how to end it at some time without economic disaster; I’m inclined to think they must have realized the former but may be at a loss for the latter, but perhaps they really do think this is the right thing to do for the long term.

      1. Moses Hersog

        @ Ithaqua
        I was over there for 7 years. I say this with a lot of respect to you, and your position. Certainly Urban CHinese know the difference between that sentimental feeling of WPA and corrupt empty/unused buildings. Most of my college students (high school maturity) knew what the fallacy the infrastructure building/spending was.

      2. Moses Herzog

        That’s the most coherent comment I ever made while drinking. Oh, I just “told on myself” didn’t I??? hahahahhaah. Oh man……. Love you guys, Waiting on the Mack Brown NCU game friends. Watching Larry Bird Assists videos on YT. Damn man, I never get tired of it. I hope Menzie and all of his readers are happy today and staying cool, away from this crazy heat.

    2. Ivan

      An even worse repeat is the Maoistic “foreign spies and enemies are everywhere, rat out your family and friends” campaign that Xi has just started. Paranoia may be good for a purge or two (so the current dictator can consolidate his power) – but it will devastate an economy that is very dependent on foreign countries and already in trouble.

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