Conference: “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”

Sept 21-22, at the University of Padua, organized by International Institute of Forecasters, University of Padua, American University, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and IMF.

Day 1, Thursday September 21
Welcome address by Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Padova)

Session 1
Moderator: Giovanni Caggiano (University of Padova)

The Dynamic Nature of Macroeconomic Risks
Sarah Mouabbi (Bank of France) with Jean-Paul Renne (University of Lausanne) and Adrien Tschopp (University of Lausanne)

Commodity Price Uncertainty Comovement: Does It Matter for Global Economic Growth?Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School, University Côte d’Azur) with Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou (University of Piraeus) and Athanasios Triantafyllou (Essex Business School)

The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Option Expirations
Juan M. Londono (Federal Reserve Board) with Mehrdad Samadi (Federal Reserve Board)

Session 2
Moderator: Wojtek Charemza (Vistula University)
The Macroeconomic Effects and International Transmission of Inflation Disagreement Xuguang Simon Sheng (American University) with Carola Binder (Haverford College) and Ezgi Ozturk (International Monetary Fund)

A Comprehensive MacroEconomic Uncertainty Measure for the Euro Area and its Implications to COVID19
Mariarosaria Comunale (International Monetary Fund) with Anh Nguyen (International Monetary Fund)

Keynote by Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins University) on “Monetary-Based Asset Pricing: A Mixed-Frequency Structural Approach” with Sydney Ludvigson (New York University) and Sai Ma (Federal Reserve Board)

Moderator: Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Padova)

Session 3
Moderator: Svetlana Makarova (University College London)
Heterogeneity in the Effects of Uncertainty Shocks on Labor Market Dynamics and Different Margins of Adjustment
Sangyup Choi (Yonsei University) with Davide Furceri (International Monetary Fund and University of Palermo) and Seung Yong Yoo (Yale University)

Central Bank Communication of Uncertainty
Klodiana Istrefi (European Central Bank) with Rayane Hanifi (ENSAE Paris) and Adrian Penalver (Banque de France)

Do Geopolitical Risks Raise or Lower Inflation?
Matteo Iacoviello (Federal Reserve Board) with Dario Caldara (Federal Reserve Board), Sarah Conlisk (Federal Reserve Board), and Maddie Penn (Federal Reserve Board)

Session 4
Moderator: Giovanni Pellegrino (University of Padova)

The Political Economy of Export Bans and Commodity Price Volatility
Michel Robe (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) with Michael K. Adjemian (University of Georgia) and Casey Petroff (Harvard University)

Does Monetary Policy Uncertainty Moderate the Transmission of Policy Shocks to Government Bond Yields?
Jeffrey Sheen (Macquarie University, Sydney), with Shan Ying (Macquarie University, Sydney), Xin Gu (Southeast University), and Ben Zhe Wang (Macquarie University, Sydney)

Day 2, Friday September 22
Session 5
Moderator: Giulia Martorana (Catholic University of Milan and European Central Bank)
The Impact of Financial Shocks on the Forecast Distribution of Output and Inflation

Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli (Norges Bank) with Mario Forni (University of Modena), Luca Gambetti (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and University of Torino) and Luca Sala (Bocconi University)
Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty

Dimitris Korobilis (University of Glasgow) with Luca Gambetti (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and University of Torino), John Tsoukalas (University of Glasgow) and Francesco Zanetti (Oxford University)

Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty
Céline Poilly (Aix-Marseille University) with Fabien Tripier (Université Paris Dauphine)

Session 6
Moderator: Davide Furceri (International Monetary Fund and University of Palermo)
Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Daniela Hauser (Bank of Canada), with Matteo Cacciatore (HEC Montreal) and Stefano Gnocchi (Bank of Canada)

Uncertainty and the Business Cycle When Inflation is High
Giovanni Pellegrino (University of Padova) with Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Padova) and Laust Særkjær (Aarhus University)

Keynote by David E. Altig (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) on ”Risky Business: From Firm Expectations to Aggregate Outcomes”
Moderator: Xuguang Simon Sheng (American University)

Session 7
Moderator: Brent Meyer (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
Current Account Dynamics and Saving-Investment Nexus In a Changing and Uncertain World Hiro Ito (Portland State University) with Menzie Chinn (University of Wisconsin)

Measuring Economic Uncertainty for Poland
Maria Elena Bontempi (University of Bologna) with Stanisław Bartha (University of Bologna) and Svetlana Makarova (University College London)



Scientific Committee:

Conference website





30 thoughts on “Conference: “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”

  1. Moses Herzog

    I wonder how many conference visitors will try to fit in a trip to Venice while they are out there?? Of course I am kinda weird in the head, I would rather go to Florence. Probably explains a lot of things.

  2. Moses Herzog

    I still think it’s super cool Menzie, an ethnic Chinese (I don’t think that’s offensive description??) works together with Hiro Ito as ethnic Japanese colleague. Some people will miss the significance of people of those backgrounds working together, but if you spent time in mainland China and saw how mainland Chinese present Japanese on TV and even talk about Japanese, you would think it’s a wonderful thing and a great example to humanity that these two men work together and assumably enjoy each other’s company in a fraternal kind of sense. Anyway I like seeing it.

    I remember taking an Inner Mongolia colleague and his very young son out to lunch because he had been overall kind to me, and I felt guilty about getting my B version final exams prepared late to turn into the office (for students who missed the “A” exam, and didn’t like the method the foreign languages dept handled it, so I drug my feet on the B version). The things he said about Japanese kind of made my stomach turn. But that was just one of those things I felt I just kind of had to listen and go on. I just felt he was in his late 30s at that point and had been fed so much Chinese state media propaganda, at that point there was going to be no changing his mindset, and just let him “go off” and let his steam off.

  3. SecondLook

    Padua: una bella citta e sympatica (sorry for the lack of accent marks)
    Lovely countryside, if you all are inclined to walks.

  4. Ivan

    A very interesting post at Low Tech Magazine on “Direct Solar Power: Off-Grid Without Batteries”. It has a lot of interesting information about that concept – although the last two words seems aspirational.

    One point is that you need to think in the direction of adjusting your use of power to the solar cycle, rather than the other way around. Appliances such as washer, dryer, dishwasher can be run when the energy production is highest. Highly insulated freezers and fridges will not just cut the need for electricity but can also be set to doing most of their cooling in the afternoon – you just have to accept temperatures fluctuating within a preset range.

    The other interesting concept is that energy storage doesn’t have to be batteries. Heating and cooling can be stored in insulated walls or in highly insulated hot water tanks that are set to accept temperature fluctuations above what we normally use. There are even some interesting solar electric cookers that can store up heat during the day to be used for cooking in the evening.

    The website for the Living Energy Farm is also worth a visit:

  5. JohnH

    I wonder how the BEA will depreciate this! “Missing F-35: US military asks for public’s help to find jet.”

    Of course, the DOD can’t keep track of most of its assets, which is a big part of the reason it can’t pass an audit. Maybe they will find the F-35 down the same rat hole as the other missing assets.

    1. Noneconomist

      To summarize:
      DOD: Baad
      USA: Baad
      Detroit: Baaaad
      Detroit EV: Baaaaaaad
      GDP: Baaaaad
      Inflation: Baaad
      Democrats: Baaaaaad
      Biden: Really Baad
      Economists: So bad you can’t call them Bad
      War: Futile, pointless, useless unless you’re talking Russia defending its sovereignty against NATO and Ukraine. So, Baad with obvious exceptions
      Cuba: Worker’s Paradise. Goooood, wonderful leadership
      Mainstream Media: Bad this week until they present more good news on Cuba, N.Korea, and Russia
      Putin: Should be awarded Nobel Peace Prize but won’t because of deceptive media reporting
      JohnH Fearless advocate for downtrodden workers everywhere

    2. pgl

      For all your little chirping – you certainly should have had the time to read the link our host provided where the BEA answered your question in detail. Oh wait – little Jonny boy is too lazy to actually read anything of substance. Continue on with your worthless chirping.

  6. pgl

    Oil Could Hit $300 A Barrel
    Sep. 18, 2023

    Oil could hit $300 in the next three-to-five years.
    High coal demand: According to the IEA, China, India, and Southeast Asian countries will consume three out of every four tonnes of coal guaranteeing dependency on non-renewable energy.
    Despite environmental concerns, oil remains essential as the growth economies rely on coal.
    Given rising inflation and developing nations’ growth, oil’s price will return to its inflation adjusted range which in years to come is $200-$300.

    And we thought Princeton Steve was insane!

    1. Macroduck

      Yeah, this isn’t even a stealth problem. It’s just a problem. With a capital PROBLEM.

      Transfers are the answer, I suppose.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Things may get more serious, They need someone to blame. But these aren’t the types they usually go after. They usually go after the dofy vender on the street with no family, no permit, and barely 2 RMB to rub together. So in my mind it implies more deep cracks under the surface and more interesting announcements soon to follow. Other property companies’ employees to soon be detained. I would call that a safe assumption. As Xi JInping does these, he gains more enemies, in powerful circles. So he had to clamp down tighter, then make more enemies, then clamp down tighter, then make more enemies, then clamp down tighter and make more enemies. When does the feedback loop end?? Once the snowball starts down the mountain it’s hard to stop.

      1. Moses Herzog

        I can’t tell if you are making a joke or not. First, I don’t think “ltr” is in mainland China, So I think we don’t need to worry. But if you are serious. “ltr” could possibly work for the mainland government, it’s not impossible. Then we might worry, and worry to the timing. I suspect it’s something more personal had “ltr” go quiet on us, and nothing “dangerous”

  7. pgl

    Kevin Drum catches the WSJ lying to its readers:

    ‘What is this even supposed to mean? How can you interpret it unless you know what percentage of jobs come from the government in the first place? And why does it include data from ZipRecruiter when it’s all available from the BLS?
    The point of the piece is that government hiring is growing faster than private hiring so far in 2023, which isn’t even really true—there was a tiny jump in government hiring in January, but growth since then has been 0.9% for both. In any case, why not just use a simple chart like this in the first place?’

    See Kevin’s more accurate chart:

    “It’s pretty easy to see that, generally, government growth has been slower than private-sector growth. If you go back and compare to the last month before the pandemic, the difference is pretty substantial. Government employment went down and has never come close to catching up.”

  8. pgl

    The Economic Outlook for 2023 to 2033 in 16 Charts,2027%2C%20in%20response%20to%20declines%20in%20interest%20rates.

    A February 2023 document from the CBO which starts off with its 10-year forecast of real GDP growth. Now before JohnH has another one of his pointless temper tantrums over forecasting real GDI, let’s encourage this troll to READ the whole thing. Yes – it does forecast real GDI through 2033.

  9. Macroduck

    So, it turns out that the logging industry is at least partly to blame for Canada’s terrible fires:

    After clear-cutting natural forests, lumber companies recruited eager, environmentally conscious youngsters to plant monoculture black spruce forests, “making up” for the harm they’d done by creating a lucrative harvest of highly flammable trees. Apparently, loggers had asked the government to impose this “reparation”.

    Government getting into bed with extractive industry is always a bad idea.

    1. pgl

      “Short-staffing is the No. 1 concern for Kaiser Permanente employees. Staffing shortages harms both patients and employees, Miriam De La Paz, union organizer and a Kaiser Permanente employee of almost 20 years, previously told Insider. Davis said Kaiser Permanente and the Coalition are working together to accelerate hiring, setting a goal to hire 10,000 new employees for Coalition-represented roles by the end of the year. “Kaiser Permanente’s efforts to date have resulted in nearly 9,000 positions filled, and we are aggressively recruiting to fill more,” Davis wrote. “About 96% of candidates for Coalition-represented positions accept our employment offers — significantly above the industry average.”

      OK – Kaiser Permanente may soon get their staffing up to 100 thousand. I just wished this story had told us what is the situation in terms of wages and benefits. Employees who are having trouble attracting enough staffing generally are also companies who provide rather crappy compensation packages.

      OH WAIT – I just suggested this company has abused monopsony power, Oh dear – expect more rants from Princeton Steve on how there is no such thing as a monopsony.

      1. Moses Herzog

        Yeah, Agreed. And when these CEOs and fat cats go out on the golf links together and the country club restaurant they “never” collude on wages, where they will stay or where wages will be ceilinged. “Never would they ever”. It’s “free markets”~~Larry “Jeffrey Epstein is my Bro” Summers and Milton “No I’m Not a Monetarist, Where’d You Hear THAT?!?!?!?” Friedman told us it was written in the night time stars.

    1. pgl

      Jonny Mims happens to be black. One has to wonder had the band director been white would the ALABAMA police treated him with more respect.

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