Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-November

Industrial production is out, -0.6% m/m vs. consensus -0.3%. Here’s the picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, along with SPGMI’s (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP:

Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating preliminary benchmark (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2017$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS preliminary benchmark, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 third release incorporating comprehensive revisions, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (11/1/2023 release), and author’s calculations.

The downside surprises in the CPI and industrial production seem to have pushed down ten year Treasury yields, while the PPI surprise had little effect.


3 thoughts on “Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-November

  1. Moses Herzog

    Years and years ago it seems like there was a guy named Meyer or Meyers, who started IHS Markit under it’s very original fruition. I remember admiring how good they were at knowing what the Fed would do next, but also being mildly annoyed because it seemed like Meyer/Meyers was using some kind of cronyism to get his insider take on Fed moves. If Menzie wants to take pity on a guy sipping bourbon on a Thursday night and tell me if my memory is correct or what I might be getting juxtaposed in my mind, it would be so nice of him.

  2. pgl

    Speaking of interest rates, I listened to some supposed expert on intercompany financing yesterday only to realize this guy was quite clueless (some webinars are a waste of time). At one point he told everyone that longer terms rate were necessarily higher than shorter terms rates. Macroduck gets credit for pointing this out to me:
    US Treasuries Yield Curve

    I did say the presenter was clueless.

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