GDP Q4 Nowcasts of November 17th

Lots of agreement around 2% SAAR, with NY Fed at 2.45%. Here’s a graphic depiction of the implications for the level of GDP.

Figure 1: Reported GDP from advance Q4 release (bold black), GDPNow (blue square), NY Fed nowcast (red *), St. Louis Fed news index (light green open triangle), Goldman Sachs tracking (pink open circle), November Survey of Professional Forecasters median (light blue line). Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, Goldman Sachs, Philadelphia Fed; nowcasts are of November 17th.

WEI for data through 11/11 is 2.35%, while the Baumeister Leiva-Leon Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Indicator is -0.4% (so 1.96% if trend is 2%).


19 thoughts on “GDP Q4 Nowcasts of November 17th

  1. JohnH

    “It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat…Putin has withstood the West’s best efforts to reverse his invasion of Ukraine, and his hold on power is firm…

    As Russian President Vladimir Putin looks toward the second anniversary of his all-out assault on Ukraine, his self-confidence is hard to miss. A much-anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive has not achieved the breakthrough that would give Kyiv a strong hand to negotiate. Tumult in the Middle East dominates the headlines, and bipartisan support for Ukraine in the U.S. has been upended by polarization and dysfunction in Congress, not to mention the pro-Putin leanings of Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump.

    Putin has reason to believe that time is on his side. At the front line, there are no indications that Russia is losing what has become a war of attrition. The Russian economy has been buffeted, but it is not in tatters. Putin’s hold on power was, paradoxically, strengthened following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion in June.
    Popular support for the war remains solid, and elite backing for Putin has not fractured.”

    Eugene Rumer Eugene Rumer is a senior fellow and the director of Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program. Prior to joining Carnegie, Rumer was the national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the U.S. National Intelligence Council from 2010 to 2014.

    It looks like reality is finally starting to sink in…this was a pointless and futile war, the latest in a long string of foreign policy failures (Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan…) If the US had not repeatedly sabotaged negotiations in early 2022, a lot of bloodshed and widespread destruction could have been avoided.

    1. Ithaqua

      Great Moments in History:

      1. Josef Stalin, Feb. 1943: “Well, we held them at the outskirts of Moscow, and inflicted heavy casualties in one battle at Stalingrad, but we haven’t reversed Hitler’s invasion, and Hitler sure seems confident, so let’s just surrender.”

      2. Winston Churchill, Feb. 1942: “Well, Hitler’s occupied most of France for almost two years now, and we haven’t pushed him out, and Hitler sure seems confident, so let’s make peace.”

      3. Raymond Poincare, May 1916: “Well, Wilhelm’s occupied much of France for almost two years now, and we haven’t made a significant advance, and he sure seems confident, so let’s just surrender.”

      4. Abraham Lincoln, Dec. 1862: “Well, we’ve lost a lot of battles to the Confederacy over the last 20 months, and haven’t really made significant inroads on their rebellion, and Jeff Davis sure seems confident, so let’s just give up and let them have their own country.”

      5. George Washington, Dec. 1776: “Well, it’s approaching two years since the Battles of Lexington and Concord, and we haven’t kicked the British out yet, and they sure seem confident, so let’s just surrender.”

      Got more for you if you want them!

      1. JohnH

        Ithaqua said, “ Got more for you if you want them!.” I assume he is referring to more unnecessary death and destruction…as we saw in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, an Afghanistan, where the US refused to deal with the reality of its pointless and futile wars.

        Does he have any recent examples of how US resolve and intransigence brought victory? Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

        Neoconservative and liberal interventionists like Ithaqua prefer to gloss over history and reality.

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          JohnH: I ask again, for the record, are you saying Korea was futile? That it would’ve been good for South Korea to be like North Korea. You did not answer before, I’m betting you won’t now.

          1. Anonymous

            In 1949, the US failed to include South Korea in the scope of defense perimeter….. May have influenced Stalin to permit Grandpa Kim to enter South Korea in June 1950. By Nov 1950 the Mainland Chinese as we called them in the old days crossed the Yalu.

            The military action in Korea ended in an armistice which has not been ratified as a treaty between North and South.

            Considering Vietnam; the Korean divide was much more a big power conflict with little nationalism. It wound down soon after Stalin died, and Eisenhower said he would “go to Korea” when president. Korea was Stalin and Moa pushing limits in the new cold war concept.

            Vietnam was much more anti colonial, nationalism. Which did not diminish after Ho Chi Minh died.

            Today Vietnam is trading partner, North Korea remains an enemy in a frozen conflict.

            Korean armistice is relic of cold war, decades after the main players of the cold war are gone..

          2. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Anonymous: Thanks for the history lesson. I’m aware of that we originally omitted South Korea from the perimeter. I don’t think that meant that invasion was justified, nor did the UN (still amazing to me that Kim and Stalin did not coordinate on timing).

        2. Ithaqua

          So you’re saying the fights against Nazi Germany were really “unnecessary death and destruction”, as was the war against Germany in WWI, and the Civil War, and the American Revolution? I deduce this from your use of the word “more”, as in “more unnecessary death and destruction”.

          As I have pointed out to you before, some wars are just, others are not. Conflating the two does no-one any favors, except the people like Hitler and Putin – and Kim – who invade other countries for no good reason other than they want to expand their territory and impose their version of “civilization”, to use the word loosely in all three cases, on others.

        3. Macroduck

          Ukrainian resolve, Johnny. It’s Ukrainians who are fighting to free Ukraine from Russian invaders. You keep getting this wrong, no matter how many times we correct you.

          It’s almost as if you want to mislead people about who’s fighting, what’s at stake and who started the war.

          1. Anonymous

            Ukraine is more complicated.

            1991 Ukraine included Russian areas; language, religion, culture added by Soviet organizers.

            That aside real politik from Russian view. US arming Ukraine aiding and supplying shelling Donetz for years…..

            I rather think Ukriane to be a thorn in Russia’s side similar to Rhineland rearming in Spring 1936.

            Would WW II happen had Britain and France stood up to the thorn in Rhineland?

        4. Macroduck

          As to whether the resolve of the local citizenry can lead to victory, which is the question that Johnny should have asked if he wanted honest discussion, how about Vietnam? How about the Soviet fiasco in Afghanistan? But even U.S. resolve can do the trick outside the U.S., as was the case in the first Iraq War.

          Too long ago to count? (Johnny loves to make up rules to exclude evidence when the evidence doesn’t suit him.) How about Myanmar?:

          So, yeah, Johnny, resolve is a big deal. Nice try, though. I’m sure you’ll get your Putin treat.

      2. Ivan

        John is settled into his narratives and no facts logic or reality will wrestle him out of those narrative. Whenever he see something that supports a narrative he peddles it, when he see something that weakens his narrative he ignores it. He doesn’t have the intellectual power to build a coherent case for his BS, so he just piddles around on right wing websites to find support – without really knowing how to avoid falling for even the most stupid of it. Like Steven, his predictions of the future have a terrible track record because his grasp of the current is pitiful – and (like Trump) he cannot learn from his mistakes, because he cannot admit to mistakes.

    2. Noneconomist

      Or, if there was no Russian invasion, there would have been no bloodshed to avoid and no widespread destruction caused by needless invasion of a sovereign country.
      You really need to try much harder to be both anti-war and pro-Russian at the same time.

      1. JohnH

        Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan (two eminent foreign policy experts:) “Ukraine’s counteroffensive appears to have stalled, just as wet and cold weather brings to a close the second fighting season in Kyiv’s effort to reverse Russian aggression. At the same time, the political willingness to continue providing military and economic support to Ukraine has begun to erode in both the United States and Europe. These circumstances necessitate a comprehensive reappraisal of the current strategy that Ukraine and its partners are pursuing.

        Such a reassessment reveals an uncomfortable truth: namely, that Ukraine and the West are on an unsustainable trajectory, one characterized by a glaring mismatch between ends and the available means.” IOW the war as it stands is pointless and futile. The reality of the situation seems to have begun sinking in much faster than in the pointless and futile wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

        Quoting reality as perceived by highly regarded foreign policy experts is hardly pro-Putin, much as those in the neocon and liberal interventionist echo chamber here would like to believe. Rather, it appears that they have yet to move beyond the denial (first) stage of the five stages of grief, while some highly regarded foreign policy experts like Haas and Kupchan have moved to the bargaining (third) stage. Some even seem to be at the final stage–acceptance.

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          JohnH: I ask again, Korea was futile? I also ask, what are your thoughts on Poland 1939? The Poles should’ve just accepted reality. Same for the French. When German forces invaded, should the French have just said “oh, well, it’s futile” and let the Germans roll in.

        2. Noneconomist

          No need for a “current strategy reappraisal .” You simply can’t—or just won’t—address the invasion that caused this pointless, wasteful, and wasteful war.
          Quote everyone—anyone— and you still avoid reality. No invasion, no needless
          You’re either anti this war, or you’re not. No surprise. You’re not. Otherwise, you’d simply say so .
          All your programmed yapping about liberal interventionists and neoconservatives is simple space filler. Obviously, no one here is buying it.
          You’re a fraud if, in fact, you’re even one individual. Your posts suggest you aren’t. No need for a comprehensive reappraisal of that.

    3. Macroduck

      We can count on Putin’s troll to copy/paste anything which urges despair over Ukraine’s ability to hold its own against Russia. It’s what he’s paid to do, after all.

      For every article that urges despair, another offering confidence is out there, if only Johnny were willing to look:

      Both fall into the category of prediction that Tetlock* warns against. And that’s as good a reason as any to make fun of Johnny. He can’t do economics, nor can he do political science, because he doesn’t bother to try.

      Let’s instead see what people who may actually have an edge in forecasting have to say:

      Odds against a deal to end the war prior to October 1, 2024? 91%

      Nice to know Putin is confident, though. Reeaallly helpful.


  2. Macroduck

    Shoplifting and weak analytic skills –

    I hate to give any ammunition to NYC haters, but here goes. An analysis of crime data from 24 cities which keep shoplifting stats finds that a 16% rise in shoplifting turns into a 7% decline when New York is omitted from the data. In other words, there is no national shoplifting wave. Local developments, video cameras and a need to make TV news pay combine to create a story that isn’t true.,by%20the%20Council%20on%20Criminal

    Cute data detail – San Francisco, shoplifting hell in the cinventional scare story, is among the cities which have experienced a decline in shoplifting.

Comments are closed.