And other forecasts and nowcasts:
Figure 1: GDP reported (bold black), CBO (blue), SPF (tan), GDPNow (light blue square), Goldman Sachs (green circle), St. Louis Fed news index (orange inverted triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2023Q3 3rd release, CBO Economic Outlook Update (Dec.), Philadelphia Fed (Nov.), Atlanta Fed (12/22), NY Fed (12/22), GS (12/22), St. Louis Fed (12/22), and author’s calculations.
The forecasts seem to be overtaken by events, where Atlanta Fed and NY Fed nowcasts are substantially above forecasts.
Michael Pettis over at FT:
https://www.ft.com/content/630f828c-ce4b-4f41-a867-9593bfaf0528
That $47.5tn total debt pile has grown further in 2023, which might mean that China has now finally overtaken the US in debt-to-GDP terms (zoomable version of the table below): However, the surge in Chinese debt is not itself the problem but rather a symptom of the problem. The real problem is the cumulative but unrecognised losses associated with the misallocation of investment over the past decade into excess property, infrastructure and, increasingly, manufacturing.
Doing some catch up reading as domestic/home drama is slowing down. GS is predicting three 25bps US Fed Res rate cuts contiguous for March, May, June. Rather specific forecast I have to say, which strikes me as either foolish or very ballsy.
Goldman’s forecasting shop generates interest rate forecasts across the curve and across sectors, exchange rate forecasts, growth forcasts, inflation forecasts… All of those forecasts require Fed policy rate forecasts. Gotta produce point forecasts for policy rates over the entire period for which other forecasts are produced. Might as well publish them.
And if Goldman has a bunch of clients who think they can improve portfolio returns by using Goldman forecasts, changing forecasts can generate trading revenue for Goldman. So while when we think “Goldman had to admit a mistake and change their forecast”, Goldman thinks “cha-ching!”
Cartels are difficult:
https://allafrica.com/stories/202312220010.html
Angola is out of OPEC. Angola accounts for about 4% of OPEC output, perhaps a bit more without a quota to (seem to) honor.
Without Angola, OPEC produces about 27% of world production. With Angola, OPEC produces 28% of world production. Interesting market reaction – oil prices fell by $1 a barrel!
It is going to become increasingly hard for OPEC to control prices. Especially their ability to prevent prices from falling is going to be a hard fight. As long as the total world consumption kept rising it was easy enough to get countries to temporarily reduce output. Now that consumption is stagnating and peak oil is very close, we are looking at trying to convince some countries to permanently reduce their production, so the other cartel members can retain their income. That will be a very hard sell. The fact that they control only 27% of world production will reduce their ability to move the markets by declarations alone.
The problem is simple in the medium term. If the price at which OPEC is reasonably cohesive is below the price at which U.S. frackers are willing to invest, OPEC has power. If OPEC only operates cohesively at a price higher than will generate significant new fracking investment, OPEC lacks power.
Wonder what difference lower world interest rates would make? Doesn’t seem straight forward to me.
Saudi Arabia’s average extraction cost is among the lowest in the world. Though estimates vary widely, they are commonly put at below $10 per barrel. There is, however, another price per barrel that Saudi Arabia has to deal with – the fiscal break-even price. That probably in the $80 to $88 range:
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/090723-saudi-fiscal-breakeven-oil-prices-seen-skewed-by-significant-pif-spending
Fracking costs per barrel in rhe U.S. run in the mid-$50s per barrel:
https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/us-shale-basins-boast-54bbl-average-breakeven-price-204563
Saudi Arabia has a bit of a conundrum on its hands; it can kill off fracking, but at the cost of serious distress to its own budget. And that’s just Saudi Arabia, never mind other OPEC countries.
Yes US fracking sets a lower level. The good thing is that we kind of need oil to be around 60-80 per barrel to help induce the switch away from hydrocarbons and increase use of renewables.
“Saudi Arabia’s average extraction cost is among the lowest in the world. Though estimates vary widely, they are commonly put at below $10 per barrel.”
If we go back say 25-30 year ago when the nominal price level was half what it is today, the Saudi extraction cost was near $5 per barrel whereas Russia’s Yukos oil could extract oil for around 48 a barrel. Yukos has a multinational structure where the oil producing affiliate (which had minority shareholders) was told it would get production cost only and zero economic rent as those profits were shifted to offshore tax havens. And Yeltsin being corrupt sanctioned this abuse.
Ah but the mighty Putin used the tax/transfer pricing rules to basically steal Yukos from its former owners. And I hear this tyrant is still abusing transfer pricing in this way.
Now we tried to explain this all to JohnH but he got all pissy and decided that doing so was condoning American military aggression!
PIF = Public Investment Fund?
Wait – is this saying the appropriate oil price must cover the modest cost of production PLUS the expenditures of its government on unrelated matters such as military spending. Hey – an idea. Let’s take all of those economic rents Exxon and Chevron are raking it and have them pay for Medicare and Social Security. Fiscal problems solved!
The Delaware Basin offers the lowest breakeven price at $46/bbl, followed by the Midland basin at $52/bbl and DJ Niobrara at $53/bbl. The Anadarko basin is on the other extreme with a $66/bbl breakeven, which is near current spot pricing, the analysts said. The Eagle Ford and Bakken fall in the middle of the pack with breakeven prices of $59/bbl and $60/bbl respectively.
Ever wonder why all those Princeton Steve forecasts of oil soaring far north of $100 a barrel always fall short? This is why. But of course the world’s worst consultant does not know this apparently.
“Saudi fiscal breakeven oil prices seen skewed by significant PIF spending”
While I realize what I’m about to say will set off Putin’s pet poodle (JohnH) one could rewrite this title to capture how Russia’s fiscal finances depend on its oil revenues. Of course PIF spending becomes expenditures on the war crimes in Ukraine and we have to account for that pesky Brent-Ural discount.
Get ready for it – little Jonny boy is about to have a little hissy fit!
Saudi Arabia has tried several times to scare off fracking by dropping prices below the fracking break even price. But at this time everybody know it’s a bluff and that they have to let prices go back up after a few months. They are facing two serious substitution problems. First that OPEC oil can be substituted for non-OPEC oil (to the point where they cannot control the price much anymore). The other being substitution of oil for non-oil energy products. Neither of those substitutions are easy to reverse once they happen.
If Russias break even price is close to US fracking break even prices then Russia has a huge problem even in the medium term. Hydrocarbon prices will go into a down slide, because they are losing their ability to compete with renewables. The first to lose hydrocarbon production are those with the highest extraction cost. They are also the ones to see the most dramatic cuts in hydrocarbon profits early in that slide.
Chinese and U.S. militaries have finally re-opened direct communication after a year of silence and weeks of delay in restarting:
https://www.cnn.com/cnn/2023/12/21/politics/top-us-and-chinese-military-officials-speak-for-the-first-time-in-over-a-year/index.html
But that’s one bit of good news in a sea of bad. China doesn’t even hide the fact that it is using its military to bully the Philippines:
https://www.apnews.com/article/china-philippenes-south-china-sea-88fe8f1964ba933ad795b701a303e292
China is ramping up military harassment of Taiwan ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election:
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/12/23/taiwan-spots-chinese-warships-aircraft-near-island-ahead-of-elections
And there’s this, of course:
https://www.newsweek.com/chinese-media-warns-minor-incident-could-spark-war-us-1855274
I guess Xi thinks the PRC owns all of the South China Sea including waters off the shore of the Philippines.
Did ltr and JohnH write this BS?
Philippines behaviour in South China Sea “extremely dangerous”: Chinese state media
https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/2757353-philippines-behaviour-in-south-china-sea-extremely-dangerous-chinese-state-media
The Chinese state media on Tuesday accused the Philippines of ignoring China’s ‘goodwill’ and ‘restraint’ and warned the country against “causing trouble and chaos” in the South China Sea, Al Jazeera reported. The Chinese-state-controlled newspaper The People’s Daily issued the call in commentary published on Monday, saying the Philippines has repeatedly infringed on China’s territory in the region and risked making a severe “miscalculation.” Al Jazeera reported that China’s People’s Daily blamed the United States for encouraging the Philippines’ “provocative” actions in the area, which it says “irresponsibly escalate regional tensions.” “The Philippines relies on the support of external forces, ignores China’s goodwill and restraint, and repeatedly provokes China’s principles and bottom line,” said the editorial. Written under the pen name Zhong Sheng, or “Voice of China,” the column is often used to offer hardline views on foreign policy matters. “This behaviour is extremely dangerous and has seriously harmed regional peace, stability, prosperity and development,” the piece reads. This comes amid escalating tensions between Beijing and Manila and both have raised accusations over a spate of run-ins in the sea.
The usual frivolous and mendacious accusations by Peppa Pgly, who seems to be agitating for yet another pointless and futile US military misadventure.
So you admit you wrote this crap. I guess you want the citizens of the Philippines to be Chinese slaves.
What about the pointless and futile russian military adventure in Ukraine? Johnny you are nothing but a despicable war monger. And again, the silence from econned, dick striker, covid and bruce on this matter shows you are nothing but partisan hacks on this site.
Of course, if pgl really cared about control of disputed islands, he could have agitated for the independence of Diego Garcia: “Between 1968 and 1973, the Chagossian (Îlois) inhabitants were forcibly expelled from Diego Garcia by the UK Government so a joint US/UK military base could be established on the island. Many were deported to Mauritius and the Seychelles, following which the United States built the large Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia, which has been in continuous operation since then. In 2019, this action and continued British administration of the archipelago were deemed illegal by the International Court of Justice in The Hague, a ruling the United Nations General Assembly supported.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diego_Garcia
So much for the much ballyhooed US “rules based order.” But Peppa Pgly, instead of caring about international law, only raises issues that are in conformance with US propaganda and could build support for yet another pointless and futile neocon war. https://www.democracynow.org/2009/10/9/forcibly_exiled_for_nearly_40_years
The word “disputed” is doing a LOT of heavy lifting here… the only country in the world that claims the South China Sea is China’s is China. If the U.S. claimed that China was a U.S. possession, would you describe the issue as “the disputed issue of who controls China?” And what do you think of China claiming Arunachal Pradesh, a part of India about the size of South Carolina, which an independent Tibet did not claim? Oh, and China claiming Taiwan, which is self-evidently not a part of China, and the border island (with Russia) Bolshoi Ussuriysky? Not to mention the Chinese conquests of Tibet and Xinjiang, and the invasion of Vietnam in 1979? Notice a pattern here? Is this what you would describe as the “ballyhooed Chinese rules based order?”
pgl quotes Chinese official press coverage. Johnny accuses pgl of agitating for war. Isn’t it China doing the agitating?
Johnny resorts to “what-about-ism” to distract from China’s agitating. Who’d have guessed?
Same old Johnny.
Hey, I’m not justifying China’s attempt to make sure that the Philippines don’t control an underwater shoal.
What I’m pointing out is that you guys complain about the very behavior that the US modeled in Diego Garcia.
Of course, we can count on the true propaganda believers here to trumpet every bad thing that the US’ bogeyman du jour allegedly ever did while curiously remaining silent when the uS does the same thing.
Yea, the propaganda parrots here hate it when people point out their double standards–one set of rules for the US and its allies, a second set for the US’ bogeyman…so they call it whataboutism whenever people point out the hypocrisy.
Propaganda parrots may pretend not to understand this, but a lot of people in the global south get it…and the duplicity of the US rules based order only gets reinforced every day when the US supplies munitions for the ongoing genocide in Gaza and then has the chutzpah to whines about others and their human rights behavior.
The US has lost any moral high ground it ever had…and the propaganda parrots tell us not to believe our lying eyes about US behavior.
JohnH, avid supporter of the Russian invasion—and its horrors—continues lecturing on the “moral high ground.” That ground includes insistence on a “negotiated settlement” of a conflict begun by Russia that should not have begun in the first place.
But on that lofty plateau, there’s John, wringing his hands while lamenting futile, pointless wars and lambasting the US for its many sins.
The joke continues. It’s not on him. It is him.
“I’m not justifying China’s attempt to make sure that the Philippines don’t control an underwater shoal.”
Jonny boy’s attempt to claim Xi is right falls miserably short again. Yea – he is that pathetically dishonest and stupid at the same time.
“when the US supplies munitions for the ongoing genocide in Gaza and then has the chutzpah to whines about others and their human rights behavior”
I was wondering when little Jonny boy would get around to this issue? Oh wait – little Jonny boy has been busy … celebrating what happened on October 7, 2023. Yea – little Jonny boy gets off when certain children watch their mom’s being raped and killed.
Me thinks my mentally retarded stalker needs a map. Philippines and the Diego Garcia are two very different places. Hey Jonny boy – is your next stupid trick blaming Hamas for the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Wow! pgl the genius realized that Diego Garcia is not an underwater shoal in the South China sea.
Of course, pgl won’t acknowledge that Chinese behavior is not all that different from what the US did–with impunity–in Diego Garcia and other places like eastern Syria. Worse, US behavior has been declared illegal, though you’ll never hear the propagnda parrots here acknowledge that.
JH.— ardent supporter of the Russian invasion and the deaths of thousands of Ukrainian civilians—is declaring his support for international law while he laments futile, pointless, wasteful wars?
Of course he did. He has no knowledge of tangled webs and personal deceit. Perpetual liars seldom do.
Jonny boy is all worried about an inland with less than 1000 residents while not at all concerned with a nation with a population over 115 million people (Philippines). Oh wait – little Jonny boy thought the Philippines was the same island he used to watch on Gilligan’s Island. Yes little Jonny boy is that STUPID.
OK, how many people broke out their Perry Como LPs today??
Somebody on this site (no not me) got musical on the internet today. I refuse to give names. Some kinda Spanish song. Er something. Great song and well done by the performer.
Acording to ISW Putin is in a catch 22.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-24-2023
“Russia’s labor shortage, which is partially a result of the war in Ukraine, reportedly amounted to about 4.8 million people in 2023 and will likely continue to exacerbate struggling Kremlin efforts aimed at increasing Russian economic capacity. Kremlin-affiliated outlet Izvestiya reported on December 24 that according to the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) data indicates that the number of workers needed to fill vacant positions in mid-2023 was 6.8% of the total number of employed people, amounting to about 4.8 million people across Russia.[38] Russian President Vladimir Putin noted the connection between labor shortages and the development of Russia’s migrant policy on December 4.[39] ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is struggling to reconcile inconsistent and contradictory policies that attempt to appease the Russian ultranationalist community by disincentivizing migrant workers from working in Russia while simultaneously trying to increase Russian industrial capacity and force generation”
To grow the economy and the war machine Putin needs more people than he has. However, the strongest support for his imperial ambitions is from the far right – and they are (like here) xenophobic racists that are strongly against letting all these “other” people immigrate to Russia. Are they going to have a much bigger problem with inflation in the near future?
Our crack strategic analyst, JohnH, has only contempt for “US rules based order.” He s all in favor “Russia rules based order” along with China. That way, there will be no wasteful, futile, pointless wars except for those begun by Russia or China whose leaders have only the best of intentions for adding territory in Europe and Asia.
And he enjoys the prospect of those leaders being around for the couple of decades because of their near unanimous popularity with their subjects.
I also like how he downplays China laying claim to about 90% of the South China Sea, roughly 3 million square kilometers’ worth – four times the size of Texas – with “China’s attempt to make sure that the Philippines don’t control an underwater shoal.” This can’t be an honest mistake.
After all the 115 million residents of the Philippines do not matter to Jonny boy. The citizens of Vietnam do not matter to Jonny boy. Hey – look over there. An island with less than 1000 people – that’s all that matters. Yea – Xi needs a better pet poodle than little Jonny boy.
Our crack strategic analyst, JohnH is celebrating this labor shortage by cheering on a modest increase in Russian real wages. Well I guess this nitwit finally figured out the same basic labor economics he so often mocks.
Two weeks ago ISW sent forth a 20 item laundry list of what Putin will do to the EU once he finishes with Ukraine.
Which ISW do we believe?
Is there supposed to be some kind of unresolvable conflict between that list and the above?
How stupid is Art Laffer? Take a listen:
Inflation is low but prices have risen in the past??? Is he a gold bug or what? Oh a 20% increases in the price level means lower real income even though nominal income has risen by far more than 20%. I mean even a lying dumbass like Bruce Hall is not this effing stupid.
Whose nominal income has increased far more than 20?, pgl? Well, certainly Corporate America’s profits have risen dramatically. And the wealthy and top earners have not done too badly–stocks are up over 20% in 2023. But incomes of average workers have basically stagnated, not that pgl notices (inconvenient truth for Biden!)
Of course, you can count on pgl to sing the Democratic anthem, “happy days are here again,” even though Democrats abandoned the New Deal half a century ago and most Americans don’t feel that they are prospering.
But, hey, why use data about average Americans when you can use aggregates to promote the rosy mirage that “the economy” is doing just fine?
There Johnny goes with “stagnated” again.
Here’s real disposable personal income, year-over-year, for the pas twenty years:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dlsP
In November, there was a 4.25% y/y gain. That is faster than the full-year gain in all bit two of the past 20 years, and one of those was due to a massive government transfers to households. Johnny calls this “stagnation”. In fact, real disposable income has been more volatile in the past 5 years than ever before . This is not “stagnation” in the strict dictionary sense. Nor is it a weak showing, as Johnny would like us to believe.
He has been corrected on this point repeatedly, but keeps saying it. Johnny is lying. He knows he’s lying. He’s job is to lie.
His job is to push back, to distract, to trivialize, any time Russia – or apparently, China – is criticized. His job is to exaggerate the falls of the U.S. and it’s allies and minimize the faults of authoritarian regimes. Challenge him on it, and he’ll lie about you, too. That’s who Johnny is.
“Well, certainly Corporate America’s profits have risen dramatically. And the wealthy and top earners have not done too badly–stocks are up over 20% in 2023. But incomes of average workers have basically stagnated”
Anyone who would write this and try to defend Art Laffer has to have an IQ in single digits. Laffer has been the champion of rich people for the last 50 years. Everyone knows this but I guess Jonny boy is so impressed with Laffer’s parade of lie that little Jonny boy has to be a Laffer apologist.
“Whose nominal income has increased far more than 20?”
Hey dumbass. I did not say 20 times. I said 1.2 times.
And yea – Macroduck may have beaten me to this but real income has increased which means nominal income rose by more than the price level. BTW real wages have increased. You might have know that if you stop your parade of dumbass lies and actually READ some of the posts here.
Praise God!
Our would be noble man of peace, the one and only JohnH,who says he detests futile, wasteful wars (with the exception of Russia’s unwarranted invasion of Ukraine and it’s numerous attacks on women and children he believes are justified) has now taken up the cause of the “average American worker.”
Economic evil doers beware! With JohnH in the lead, who —other than everyone here who know he’s a congenital liar—can doubt great prosperity is just around the corner?
China’s local government debt problem may be larger (50% larger?) than.generally estimated. From a lecture by Professor David Daokui Li of Tsinghua University, relating the results of a study by Li and graduate student Zhang He:
“China’s local government debt approached 90 trillion yuan (12.49 trillion U.S. dollars), equating to 88% of the GDP at that time (2020). This estimation significantly surpasses those commonly cited by most scholars. For instance, the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank typically estimate it around 60 trillion yuan (8.33 trillion U.S. dollars), roughly 50% of the GDP.”
https://www.eastisread.com/p/chinas-local-govt-debt-in-2020-was
Michael Pettis takes publication of this finding by someone as prominent as Li as suggesting that Chinese authorities take the conclusions seriously:
https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1738215345171624265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
That would be good, but then what? Does China change incentives so that local officials no longer put short-term growth targets ahead of efficiency?
By the way, this has mostly to do with infrastructure spending, not residential real estate. That bad real estate debt problem is separate, though there is a link to local governments.
Outstanding comment. but I’ve come to expect nothing less from you. That is what’s special about this that you and Pettis note, the fact they are allowing this to be spoken about openly is a good sign. Will it end in good result??–who knows?? But the fact mainland Chinese scholars have identified the problem and no one is blocking it being stated “out loud” are very healthy signs, and less dysfunctional that we normally expect from Beijing.
This kind of problem is HARD to resolve. Starting off with a realistic view of the problem is a critical first step.
After that, the complexity of interaction in finance means ya still don’t have a full grasp of the problem, as evidenced by various financial crises over the years.
As you shop at CostCo hopefully to save a little money considering this:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/costco-s-outgoing-ceo-made-336-times-the-median-worker-s-pay-a-lower-ratio-than-walmart-and-target/ar-AA1m5D0m?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=715ef773ea674efd9054adbd4781ca32&ei=10
‘Costco CEO Craig Jelinek earned total compensation of more than $16.8 million in 2023, per SEC filings.
The median employee earned $50,202 in annual pay and benefits, up from $45,450 in 2022.
Jelinek’s pay ratio works out to 336 times that of the median worker, up from 218 last year.’
A 14.89% increase in nominal compensation but damn this CEO is overpaid.
It must be nice to be in a position to get the FT to run an ad for your not-yet-existent crypto-currency:
https://www.ft.com/content/7774da77-048d-4e75-8350-4fec136cb18f?sharetype=blocked
The thing to keep in mind is that financial innovation is driven by the rich, for the rich. (Grameen banks, Go Fund Me and their kin are the exceptions.) LLCs came into existence to sparate risk from reward. MBS were created because there were not enough AAA and AA assets to satisfy the demand for safe assets…and then we ended up holding the bag, while mortgage borrowers lost their homes, separating risk from reward.
Nouriel runs with a rich crowd. They tell him they need a “flat” crypto-currency, So the world needs a “flat” crupto-currency. Simple as that.
Let’s see if “flatness” is something one can engineer in the financial lab without mishap. Let’s see if it can be done without spewing carbon dioxide because the rich have discovered they want “flatness”. Let’s see if the benefits accrue to the rich, while risk is deposited elsewhere.
Having read all those dumbass comments from JohnH, it is crystal clear that this uber-moron has no effing clue where the South China Sea even is. No Diego Garcia is not one of the nations people mention bordering on this sea but the following are: Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
And if Xi had his forces attack and enslave these five countries, little Jonny boy would be so excited as he would get to watch the citizens raped and murdered just like the citizens of Ukraine.
… and after the invasion of Taiwan, with many tens, if not hundreds, of thousands killed and the entire country basically enslaved, we can hear, “what about Grenada?”
Ithaqa is obviously eager for the US to engage in yet another pointless and futile war that, in the case of Taiwan, would surely see lots of Americans among the casualties, possibly even chicken hawks like pgl, Ducky, baffling, noneconomist and Ithaqua. Do they really think that a war with China would be anything but Pyrrhhic. Heck, the US couldn’t even win in Korea or Vietnam, and now the neocon chicken hawks are itching to take on China! Sheer lunacy.
Instead of trumpeting every Chinese peccadillo, which only paves the way for war by parroting neocon propaganda, why not give diplomacy a chance?
JohnH: Sorry, building islands in the South China Sea is a peccadillo?
I have to wonder if Jonny boy even knows what peccadillo means. After all this moron read the word filibuster and thought Mitch McConnell invaded a Latin American nation.
Oh wait – Jonny boy thinks the Holocaust was a peccadillo. And of course October 7, 2023 was declared to be a peccadillo by little Jonny boy.
Let me repeat a list of PRC actions over the last 75 years:
China claiming Arunachal Pradesh, a part of India about the size of South Carolina.
China claiming Taiwan, which is self-evidently not a part of China.
China claiming the border island (with Russia) Bolshoi Ussuriysky
Chinese conquest of Tibet and the ongoing destruction of Tibetan culture
Chinese conquest of Xinjiang and the ongoing destruction of Xinjiang culture
China’s invasion of Vietnam
China claiming 90% of the South China Sea, an area greater than 4x the size of Texas, and building militarized artificial islands there
I would like to know which of these you classify as “peccadillos.” If any of them are, why are you complaining about Diego Garcia? Wouldn’t that just be a U.S. / G.B. “peccadillo” by comparison? And if Diego Garcia is proof of U.S. iniquity, why aren’t the above proof of PRC iniquity?
Did you catch the claim by little Jonny boy that the Communist won the Korean War? Huh – I guess all that economic progress by South Korea was a giant myth.
@ pgl
That’s the aspect I tried to explain to “my” Chinese students, who seemed shocked when I told them the Korean war ended in a relatively neutral fashion. That people’s lives in South Korea were much happier, safer, higher quality of life, and more freedom of choice in their futures. And these same mainland Chinese college students (at that time a mainland Chinese freshman in college had roughly the same maturity level as an American Chinese high school sophomore) who ate up South Korean culture like it was pork dumplings during Chinese New Years and 75% of them their idols were South Korean pop stars…….. couldn’t register at all how that might have made the Korean War a victory for democracy.
“Ithaqa is obviously eager for the US to engage in yet another pointless and futile war”
No he is not and you know it. It seems every time someone nails you on your stupidity and/or dishonesty (which is about every 2 minutes) you resort to such pointless smearing. Dude – we ALL know what a pathetic little liar you are. So who the eff are you trying to impress with this BS?
Hey dumbass – what happened on June 25, 1950? Do you even know? Didn’t think so. OK – it was the date that North Korea attacked South Korea. Yea little lying war monger. The Communists started that war. Just like Putin invaded Ukraine FYI.
And BTW – what happened on October 7, 2023? Oh wait – you do not know that either.
Yea – you have to be either the dumbest troll ever or a serial liar. What was that gang? He’s both?! Got it!
Uh Oh! Johnny has discovered yet more obviousness. Whenever someone points out inconsistency, dishonesty or immorality in something Johnny has written (which is pretty much always the case), Johnny suddenly discovers some “obvious” thought that person has not expressed. That “obvious” thought has lately mostly been a desire for futile wars, but Johnny has also discovered that, for instance, I am affilated with the financil industry and that pgl works for corporate interests. I’ve asked Johnny repeatedly which financial firm I work for (I wanna go pick up my check!), but Johnny has never responded.
Oh, and Johnny not only reads minds; he can also read the future. Johnny knows which wars will be futile. Are they the wars already started by Russia in Ukraine, or that may be started by China in Taiwan? Heavens, No! Russia and China don’t start futile wars! No, the futile wars are those fought by Russia’s and China’s victims. Same wars, but only futile when the victims fight back.
And even though Russia started the war in Ukraine and the U.S. is not fighting in that war, Johnny keeps mentioning the war in Ukraine as “another pointless and futile U.S. war”. Remember, pointless AND futile. Always both, as if there s a script that Johnny is following.
I bet little Jonny boy thinks Russia won this war some 118 years ago!
https://www.britannica.com/event/Russo-Japanese-War
Russo-Japanese War, (1904–05), military conflict in which a victorious Japan forced Russia to abandon its expansionist policy in East Asia, thereby becoming the first Asian power in modern times to defeat a European power. By the early 17th century, Russia had established its authority over all of Siberia, but its attempts to move southward were consistently blocked by China. Fully engaged in western Europe and against Turkey during the 18th century, Russia could not press its interests in East Asia. As the settlement of Siberia developed, however, it realized its need for outlets to the sea, and, because China continued to deny it access to the Amur region, it resorted to force toward the end of the reign of Emperor Nicholas I (1825–55).
And of course Jonny boy also thinks Japan was the aggressor here. Yea Jonny boy flunked world history too.
Nikki Haley Fails To Mention Slavery When Asked About Cause Of Civil War
A New Hampshire voter told the GOP presidential candidate, “it’s astonishing to me that you answer that question without mentioning the word slavery.”
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nikki-haley-civil-war-slavery_n_658d398fe4b0cd3cf0e497b1
Are we really surprised? Nikki Lightweight would be fine with slavery as long as the plantation owners are free to sell their cotton without any government intervention.
To be fair, Haley’s parents sent her to one of those segregationist private academies that sprang up in South Carolina in response to desegregation of public schools. So it is quite possible that Haley really knows nothing about slavery as the cause of the Civil War.
Since her state was the first to break away from the Union and their declaration listed slavery as THE reason, she would have to be incredibly ignorant of her own state’s history.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/28/us/maine-trump-ballot.html
Maine Joins Colorado in Finding Trump Ineligible for Primary Ballot
OK two states have followed the Constitution. Time for the other 48 to do so as well.
5-star comment.
Progress, of a sort – from the U.S. Energy Information Administration:
“Zero-carbon generation also grew in 2022, and its share of the total generation mix increased from 39% in 2021 to 40% in 2022. However, overall electric power sector emissions in 2022 remained near 2021 levels because increases in emissions from natural gas offset decreases in emissions from coal and because total electricity demand increased by 3%.”
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61022
A 1% gain in share in a year ain’t gonna cut it, especially when total generation rose by 3%. Geological hydrogen looks like maybe a good transition fuel, but the transition is too damned slow.
However we are at a transition point like the one for coal back in beginning of the Obama administration. The last coal fired plant in the US was build in 2014 because the calculations for a 30-year coal fired plant simply could not predict a profit – so nobody wanted to finance the building of new coal plants. The consistent fall in prices for solar and wind has put pressure on natural gas fired plants. Even the most efficient combined cycle natural gas plants have a hard time providing a convincing lifetime accounting that would provide a good chance of profit for investors. That is the reason 80% of new projects in the US in 2023 were alternative energy.
My hope is that combined cycle NG plants can use hydrogen, or even the NG/hydrogen mixtures that come out of many hydrogen fields, as fuel. That could reduce green house gas burdens from those NG plants already build. If hydrogen could be produced cheeper than NG a shift could happen without any government intervention. The field is evolving fast so its not impossible that we will get there in a few years.
China’s behavior toward Taiwan is apparently alienating the Taiwanese:
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-confronts-a-new-political-reality-in-taiwan-no-friends-1e3a356d
Good job.
Amazing how few people like being bullied, huh?
Xi does not need friends in Taiwan. After all Putin has lent Xi his pet poodle (JohnH).
Right-wing nuts are attempting to create separatist enclaves in Germany:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/27/far-right-extremists-reichsburger-rural-land-grab-germany
Where could they have gotten an idea like that? Oh…yeah…:
https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvxek3/the-far-right-is-fueling-secession-fantasies-across-the-us
And let’s not forget the breathless reporting from Faux News about Canadian separatists:
https://www.vice.com/en/article/g5yvg9/alberta-51-project-separatists-america-right-wing-media
So much separating.
“The biggest and loudest of the current movements is “Texit,” spearheaded by the Texas Nationalist Movement. Supporters first began floating this idea about two decades ago in response to what they saw as unfair taxation rates and overreach from the federal government. But this is the first year that their core mission—seceding from the U.S. in pursuit of independence—will be put to Texans for a vote. “The Texan Independence Referendum Act,” or House Bill 1359, introduced by State Rep. Kyle Biedermann, will determine whether there should be a referendum on the issue. Legislators are expected to vote on it by May, when Texas’ legislative session ends.”
Let Texas succeed. After all – we are all sick of Senator Cruz and that racist POS they call governor.
I dont hear any of this secession talk in texas. This seems to be something more found in the right wing echo chamber than actually discussed in public. Right now it seems limited to the really far right fools. Econned and rick striker may be able to fill us in on the details.
“For years, there’s been a number of tiny groups on the fringe of politics of Alberta—Canada’s Texas, for American readers—pushing for the province to separate and become the 51st state in the United States of America.”
Alberta produces and exports a whole of oil. Making it part of the US would definitely improve our trade balance.
Russian strikes on Ukraine ‘appalling assaults’: senior UN official
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-strikes-ukraine-appalling-assaults-222649300.html
A senior UN official condemned Russia on Friday for its “appalling assaults” on Ukraine involving some 158 missiles and drones, which Kyiv blamed for the deaths of at least 30 people. Schools, a maternity hospital, shopping arcades and blocks of flats were among the buildings hit in the nationwide barrage that also wounded over 160 people, said Ukrainian officials.
“Regrettably, today’s appalling assaults were only the latest in a series of escalating attacks by the Russian Federation,” said UN assistant secretary-general Mohamed Khiari at a UN Security Council meeting. “The (UN) Secretary-General unequivocally condemns, in the strongest possible terms, today’s appalling attacks on cities and towns across Ukraine. “Attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure violate international humanitarian law, are unacceptable and must stop immediately.”
Ukrainian forces are fighting Russian soldiers to defend their home land. Putin’s forces are deliberately engaged in heinous war crimes. Now one would wonder why JohnH supports war crimes since this pet poodle PRETENDS he is against war. Simple – little Jonny boy’s mission in life is getting off on the horrific murder of innocent Ukrainians including and especially their children. Yes little Jonny boy is one sick puppy. But that is what Putin needs.
According to ISW the Ukrainian retaliation was quite impressive with 70 drones launched into Russia.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-30-2023
And Ukraine don’t waste their ammo targeting civilians, they may have hit an important strategic military target.
“Ukrainian media that Ukrainian forces launched more than 70 drones on the night of December 29 to 30 at Russian military infrastructure and defense industrial facilities near Moscow, Belgorod, Tula, Tver, and Bryansk cities.[1] The Ukrainian security sources reportedly characterized these strikes as a response to the Russian strikes on December 29, which was the largest series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion.[2] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces intercepted 32 Ukrainian drones in Bryansk, Orel, Kursk, and Moscow oblasts on the night of December 29 to 30.[3] The discrepancy between these Russian and Ukrainian figures may suggest that Ukrainian forces struck many of their intended targets, as Ukrainian security sources suggested to Western and Ukrainian media.[4] Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Kreminy El Plant in Bryansk City, which is Russia’s second largest producer of microelectronics, 90 percent of whose manufactured products are reportedly components of Russian military equipment and systems.[5] Geolocated footage published on December 30 shows explosions over Bryansk City.”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/
Good news. While 10 year government bond rates came close to hitting 5%, they are now well below 4%. But always being the Grinch who stole Christmas, Lawrence Summers is warning that the fight against inflation is not over. Hey Larry – try this New Year’s Resolution: SHUT UP!
JohnH is Marc Thiessen and he writes for the National Review! A bit from Kevin Drum’s latest “Joe Biden has crushed the working class by raising the price of au pairs”
https://jabberwocking.com/joe-biden-has-crushed-the-working-class-by-raising-the-price-of-au-pairs/
Thiessen’s mistake was relying on a Wall Street Journal article from August that used year-over-year inflation and just happened to catch a brief dip from a year earlier. As usual, this was enough to get the Journal’s alarms blaring, but within a couple of months the illusory rise was gone. As you can see, when you take a broader view there’s nothing there. Childcare costs have risen about evenly with inflation over the past year and are below inflation since 2020.
That’s our Jonny boy in action! The real cost of child care has declined but the morons at the WSJ cherry pick the data to say it has increased. And Thiessen falls for it hook line and sinker. But Kevin adds more:
Where’s an editor when you need one? Wasn’t someone around to warn Thiessen that, um, not too many working class families can afford an au pair in the first place? Come on, man.
BTW had the real wages of an au pair gone up a progressive should celebrate even if rich couples had to pay a bit more. But not the clowns at the National Review.
fwiw, November’s construction spending was up 0.4% after October’s was revised 0.8% higher…adjusting for (deflation) with the producer price index for final demand construction, i get real construction spending up 11.6% in the 4th quarter so far, which would add about 80 basis points to 4th quarter GDP across the three components it is source data for (investment in private non-residential structures, investment in residential structures, and government investment outlays)