Doing some research on international currencies, I reviewed FX turnover data from the BIS, through April 2022. Dollar dominated, two months after the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Figure 1: Share of foreign exchange turnover in April of indicated survey year (out of 2), for USD (inverted blue triangle), EUR (inverted tan triangle), EUR legacy currencies (inverted open tan triangle), GBP (pink square), JPY (green square), CNY (red square), CHF (sky blue x). Source: BIS Triennial Surveys.
What is interesting is the remarkable constancy of the two top currencies, USD and EUR.
It’s kind of hard to see what’s happening with the “upstart” currencies, such as the CNY, so below is a detail with CNY, CHF, and other currencies AUD and CAD (linear interpolation).
Figure 2: Share of foreign exchange turnover in April of indicated survey year (out of 2), for CHF (sky blue), CAD (light green), AUD (chartreuse), and CNY (red). Linear interpolation between survey years. Source: BIS Triennial Surveys, and author’s calculations.
Note these are transactions over the counter for spot, forwards, swaps, etc. These are not invoicing currency shares, nor are they SWIFT transactions shares. For more on trends for international currency shares, see this post, presentation slides, as well as future posts.
I’m too lazy right now, but I’d be interested to see fx turnover shares relative to GDP shares. China’s GDP has grown as a share of the global total, as has China’s share of fx turnover. The extent to which China is growing in prominence in global finance, we should see Chinese fx turnover share growing faster than its GDP share.
A relatively restricted capital account and concerns about confiscation of assets are likely to limit China’s fx turnover relative to the size of its economy.
Maybe I’ll see if it’s within my meager abilities to do the math tomorrow. Maybe I won’t.
Don’t let us down. I had a relative falsely accuse me of violence recently. Somebody owes me something damn it. [ I don’t even know what that means, don’t mind me ]
In fiddling around with my own question, I came across a fairly thorough look at “dedollarization” efforts, but without much quantification:
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/12/05/difficult-realities-of-brics-dedollarization-efforts-and-renminbi-s-role-pub-91173
(Sneaks back to the internet, hoping this distraction works…)
When someone accuses you of violence, it really makes you want to hit someone, doesn’t it?
@ 12 Men
Heh, I’m very afraid to answer that question honestly at this point.
I don’t think it registers with some people (specifically the ones, some 2nd hand, and I am referring to the knucklehead, probably don’t even have an associate’s degree firemen who accused me 2nd hand) realize how once that charge sticks, it follows you around forever. I guess none of those fireman have a narcissist relative who will do anything to create drama centering around themselves. I’d say “I don’t wish it on them” so as I appear angel like, but that would be a lie on my part. I hope those redneck hillbilly firemen do get to experience dealing with a narcissist one day. Because I am here to tell you, narcissists are masters at making the people closest to them appear like devils as they wear their stealth devil horns with a grin.
If Xi quits screwing around with the system, I see the CNY gaining strength just as it shows in Menzie’s 2nd graph. But if Xi keeps fiddling with things (fiddling is the family friendly way to say it) it’s a wild card and puts a monkey wrench into what would otherwise be a progressive time for China’s currency.
I picked up Liz Cheney’s autobiography today. I have this mild gnawing feeling that I will regret it later. She was late to go against the Orange Abomination. And yet there I was in Wal Mart (not my favorite supermarket but they have a good pharmacy there compared to CVS/Walgreen’s etc. and I was picking up meds for a relative) and I’m wandering around semi-aimlessly looking for cheapies etc. And I go the the electronics section and books are nearby and I see her book sitting there. $23 (WAY higher than I pay for most books I get). And I am thinking in my head “this is one of the few Republicans speaking out against this orange bastard”. “What is this book doing in white trash Wal Mart??, in red state Oklahoma??” “This location is not Cheney’s (or any anti-MAGA’s) fan base” “What the hell is this book doing here, in white trash Wal Mart, in red state Oklahoma??” and I picked the damned book up and took it to the register. I couldn’t stop myself. It was like that thing that took over Linda Blair’s (later to be HOT as an adult) body in “Exorcist” had taken control of my being……..
I haven’t felt this weird and like I had a bad case of Vertigo since I picked up John Boehner’s book at the public library.
if the woman can manage to tell any interesting stories or data points I will pass it along here on Menzie’s blog.
Don’t worry people. I want all of you to know I also picked up a “collector’s edition” of MAD magazine on the same shopping trip. I have to keep my degenerate street credit. You people know that. As Cosmo Kramer once said “You know who I am!!!! Damn it!!!!!!”
Does it promote Alfred P. Neuman for President? Given how awful the current frontrunners are, we could use a candidate for protest voters. (He’d have my vote!)
It’s Alfred E. Neuman. But I know you’d like that P to stand for Putin.
Gridlock–kind of like Joseph R. Biden, where the R stands for Russia?
Correct. But forgive little Jonny Boy – he had not received his daily dish of dog food from his Kremlin masters.
For Johnny, on candidate is awful because he has opposed Russia’s attack on a neighboring country. As a good Ruusian propagandist, Johnny can’t show his true colors by rooting for Trump, but he can claim that Biden falls into the same basket as Trump.
Ding, ding, dung!!! Johnny wins more Putin points!
We know Putin and Xi want Trump to win so we know for certain that you do too.
Speaking of international currencies, it looks like Putin has absolutely destroyed the Russian economy for years to come. And Putin has made the Russian Ruble into a dead currency – China and India are refusing to pay for oil and gas in rubles – demanding Putin take the yuan and rupee instead https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/22/putin-russia-economy-winner-war/ (and yet the U.S. GOP idolizes war criminal Putin – while many Russians in rural areas can not afford to buy basic foodstuff and don’t have indoor plumbing.)
Yes without the oil and NG revenue, Russia has nothing. Initially Putin and his kleptocrats stole that revenue to indulge themselves in billionaire lifestyles. Now Putin is using that and a lot more to indulge himself in imperialistic fantasies of “Russky Mir” and a glorious world empire. The problem is that the music will stop very soon because hydrocarbon energy is quickly becoming more expensive than alternatives. Putin will face huge bills for the many destructive aspects of his war, and not nearly enough income from natural resources to cover them. The lower 90% of Russians have barely enough to cover basic survival, so the bills will become due for the top 10%. A lot of them will have the ability to just move to more “pleasant” environments in other countries. The right wing in Russia will blame it all on “others” because that is what right wingers always do. So history will likely record Putin as the cause of Russia sinking into hyperinflation, rampant poverty, ethnic strife/war, and a third world economy. Rather than expanding the Russian empire we will likely see a slow breakaway of ethnic provinces demanding to become independent. Without oil wealth to control/bribe the nationalistic/independence impulses of ethnic groups it will either be civil war or acceptance of Russia as a loose federation of states.
Hence (part of) the desire to control Ukraine; then he has grain as well as oil and natural gas to play with.
Interesting how the US has the same interests in Ukraine as Russia–control over oil and natural resources. It helps to explain why Hunter Biden got onto the Board of Burisma, one of Ukraine’s largest energy companies at the same time he was a member of the Advisory Board of the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), the USAID-funded NGO that was established after the CIA was prohibited from fomenting coup d’etats.
And then there is “Lithium: The Link Between the Ukraine War and the Clean Energy Transition–“researchers believe that Ukraine is a treasure trove of lithium, holding about 500,000 tons of the “non-renewable mineral that makes renewable energy possible.” Most of it is around Mariupol. which Russia grabbed early. https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/news-insights/lithium-the-link-between-the-ukraine-war-and-the-clean-energy-transition/
Kissinger: “Control oil and you control nations; control food and you control the people.”
But the neocon echo chamber here wants you to believe that the war is only about freedom, democracy and human rights, not crass commercial interests, control over energy resources, or geopolitical primacy
Dude – I get you came in 2nd for the 2023 troll of the year. But the contest is over. Oh wait – you have started the 2024 campaign. Yea – I keep cheering for you!
Jonny boy relies on a piece from 18 months ago written by whom? Jonny boy has no clue but here goes:
Gabriela Garity is a student in the Huntsman Program in International Studies and Business. Garity is also a 2022 Undergraduate Student Fellow.
““researchers believe that Ukraine is a treasure trove of lithium, holding about 500,000 tons”
0.5 megatons is not even a drop in the bucket when it comes to this market. Maybe this is why Ukraine does not make any credible list in terms of lithium reserves.
Hey Jonny boy – dumbass comment like this might just mean you will finally win the troll of the year award. We are just days into 2024 and you have a big lead. Keep it coming troll. We are cheering for you!
1. Ukraine is a net oil and gas importer. No one wants to gain control over a net importer’s oil and gas resources except oil companies.
2. The U.S. did not invade Ukraine to gain control over its natural resources and people; Russia did. The level of interest in Ukraine’s natural resources, such as they are, is quite different between the two countries.
3. 500,000 tons of lithium is not a treasure trove; it’s a drop in the bucket. It would put Ukraine around 19th in world resources, between Zimbabwe and Spain, and is about 4% of U.S. lithium resources or 0.5% of worldwide resources.
I find it interesting that you repeat yourself over and over about the neocon echo chamber here, never addressing any of the points I or others make on the topic. I wonder why that is. You seem stuck in a worldview that is long out of date, perhaps unable to move on from the months of protest about the Iraq war in 2003, over 20 years ago (I participated in some of those protests.) It’s kind of sad, really.
Lithium is not a long term bet. Battery technology is evolving quickly. Lithium will not be as important in a few more years. Fighting a war for lithium would be foolish.
500,000 tons of lithium is not a treasure trove; it’s a drop in the bucket. It would put Ukraine around 19th in world resources, between Zimbabwe and Spain, and is about 4% of U.S. lithium resources or 0.5% of worldwide resources.
Ithaqua is spot on. Jonny boy once again proves he is the dumbest troll God ever created.
Jonny boy found some undergrad who claimed Ukraine would be a major producer of lithium (which of course means Putin needed to commit war crimes there per Jonny boy). Odd – Ukraine does not produce lithium. Ah but maybe it is sitting on lithium reserves. Let’s check:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/lithium-reserves-by-country
Nope – not on the list. Another totally bogus claim by little Jonny boy!
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – NOVEMBER 2023
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations decreased to 5.5 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) edged down and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.
Job Openings
On the last business day of November, the number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million; this measure is down from a series high of 12.0 million in March 2022.
The usually careful Kevin Drum goes beserk declaring Job Openings were way down. Well relative to early 2022 yea but come on Kevin – learn to use FRED
Job Openings: Total Nonfarm (JTSJOL)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL
Be honest – who is sitting on the edge of your chair waiting for this list to come out?
The Jeffrey Epstein list should start being released today. Some big names are expected
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/01/03/jeffrey-epstein-list-plane-released-time/72097281007/
Okay thanks