Slightly behind schedule, my year reviewed. Last year’s recap was entitled “Year in Review, 2022: Vast Data Conspiracy by BEA, “Drill, baby, drill!”, and the Ills of Diversity” This year, with rational policymaking returning, it’s time to keep on trying to erase stupidity.
January: Some people (Steven Kopits) think that the gap between establishment survey based and household survey based measures of employment can be reconciled by people taking on an additional job (or two…or three…or four).
February: Some people (actually it’s Steven Kopits, the same person as in January’s post) think that the nonfarm payroll employment numbers were too good to be true, so that it’s possible the data were manipulated.
March: On the argument that Yellen (I think Kopits meant Biden/Powell) caused world inflation.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/03/admit-it-biden-caused-swedish-inflation
April: A reader wonders why I put a dashed line for February 20222 in my graphs, since the Russian Special Military Operation was much ado about nothing.
May: A response to a reader’s worry about the long delay in government statistical reporting of median wages.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/05/timely-data-on-median-wages
June: A reader (OK, it’s Steven Kopits again) has asserted that the labor market collapsed in the first half of 2022. That assertion looks problematic in the wake of revised data.
July: A reader argues that the bounce in investment in GDP was due to miitary Keynesianism, not the CHIPS Act.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/07/timing-chips-act-or-military-keynesianism
August: Some people are certain that wind and solar power worsened, rather than mitigated, the challenge of meeting peak load demand.
September: What remains to the argument that economic apocalypse would follow minimum wage hikes in Seattle? Answer: Not much.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/09/minimum-wage-apocalypse-on-elliott-bay
October: Speaker of the House Mike Johnson’s solution to Social Securities funding problem. Force people (well, women of child-bearing age) to have children!
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/10/mr-johnsons-modest-conjecture-for-saving-social-security
November: Is coal use rising, are EV sales declining? Don’t let the data fool you.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/11/what-is-corev-smoking-this-holiday-season
December: Wisconsin’s own Senator Theoden says, Russia’s gonna win, so we should just sit back and let it happen.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/12/senator-theoden-on-funding-ukraine
Well, let’s hope for better in 2024. And let’s hope people actually start looking at the data.
Moses, ask and ye shall receive.
A great and detailed discussion of why giving Russia the land it currently occupy in Ukraine is not at all acceptable to Ukraine – and should not be to the west either.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/lands-ukraine-must-liberate
Unless this war ends with a Ukraine strong enough to defend itself, it will become a constant drain on western resources to keep Putin from coming back for “seconds”. Those who peddle Putin narratives are ignoring the long term outcomes of their short sighted “solutions”.
The usual neocon blather from ISW…
Tell me, when have neocons contributed anything except to the profits of the merchants of death?
speaking of merchants of death, as a supporter of putin and his death march in Ukraine, how would you label yourself Johnny? why do you continue to support the futile and remorseless invasion of Ukraine by Russia? why not ask putin to leave Ukraine and stop the war?
This is Johnny’s cheapest and most cowardly trick. He slaps a label on Ivan and/or the author if the Understanding War link, and then demands that Ivan defend whatever that label is supposed to mean.
Johnny hasn’t engaged the actual argument, because he’s afraid of it; reason to think Johnny recognizes the truth that Ukraine has to keep fighting until Russia learns it cannot beat Ukraine.
This is not, by the way, a new idea. I’ve made the point in comments here several times, and Johnny has never addressed it. He just whips out his “neocon” lie and runs away. His only job is to spew propaganda. No Putin points for engaging in honest discussion.
Yes an opinion postulate followed by a postulate question. Not sure even he knows what the purpose of that is – it certainly has no intellectual value. Possibly he is trying to entice someone to engage with him? I don’t remember him ever formulating a rational fact-based argument about anything here. It all seems to be trolling for reactions mixed with some weird attempts to convince himself that he is “winning” the arguments he isn’t making.
The shameless JohnH rants continue. Hard to find another here who bleats about pointless, futile, wasteful wars while refusing to condemn the needless Russian invasion and who would prefer Russian territorial gains rather than a halt to this particular pointless, wasteful war.
Yes, he actually thinks his blather is seriously considered. As I previously said, the joke isn’t on him. It is him.
Hey moron – he’s exactly right. Oh wait – you have not gotten your doggie treat so do babble on.
Wait – Princeton Steve wins the gold with 4 out of 12 and little Jonny only gets the silver with 3 out of 12.
I demand a recount as we know little Jonny tried very hard to win this year.
This election was stolen!!!
It was a pointless and futile election!
Some family predicament that hit just before Thanksgiving made me miss some of these latter posts (A family member claimed I kicked her in her abdomen, and they then wouldn’t let me visit her in the hospital (I called for the fire dept because she couldn’t stand up due to excessive weight, and literally crapped herself as I attempted to lift her 275 pound frame from the chair). ( I advise all readers here to get ready for a “fun” ride when one of your relatives gets early stage dementia and for the last roughly 47 years of their life, treated their body like a garbage compactor). I had a girlfriend once who bit me in the side of my face, and now I’m wondering “why??” I didn’t report it to a bunch of jackass knucklehead firemen (I assume all nations’ firemen are just as dumb as America’s so, I should have told the mainland Chinese firemen I got bit in the side of my face. But unlike the abdomen kick, that actually DID occur. “Family…… ” But I digress on my great life. (Do any of you really wonder why I drink every 10 days or so??)
A lot of people laud the IEA numbers, and I have always been curious what are the IEA’s weaknesses or what factors might make IEA’s forecasts look less trustworthy. One of those last posts answered that question that I had had for a long time. I don’t think I had read that post until just today which is pretty rare for me on this blog. I will have to go back and look at those posts for about a 2–3 week section there starting about 3 days before Thanksgiving.
Chin up, buddy. These dark days of winter are tough. Exercise, laugh, sleep – more light is on the way.
Here’s how the stock market is really doing
https://jabberwocking.com/heres-how-the-stock-market-is-really-doing/
Kevin Drum plots the S&P 500 in inflation adjusted terms. Yea S&P 500 has risen a wee bit faster than the general price level. But why would Kevin draw a graph this way? Is he writing for some right wing rag? Or maybe he has grown sick of the BS from little Jonny boy and decided to do some real analysis.
From the June awards:
Dead wrong, as it turned. And predictably so. You were wrong because you did not consider the statistics more holistically.
Stevie always writes as if he is the only smart person in the room and the rest of us are morons. But wait – Stevie does not consider data holistically in the trash he writes. Remember when this Know Nothing troll told us to judge business cycles based on VMT? Seriously?
“While I agree that the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine did have a big effect on the US — and global — economy, I do not think the timing is right to argue the surge in manufacturing structures investment is due to the war.”
Dr. Chinn on JohnH’s contribution to the July awards. But wait – Jonny boy also told us that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine had little effect on the US economy. Yep – little Jonny boy has malleable opinions.
I am flattered to be your No. 1 source for the year in review.
Meanwhile, here’s the latest from me on the Price Cap.
The Price Cap at Year End
https://www.princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2024/1/1/the-price-cap-at-year-end
The war could end in ’24
https://www.princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2023/12/28/the-war-could-end-in-24
Latest on this in the Washington Examiner
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/russia-losing-1-000-a-day-faces-650-000-war-deaths-at-end-of-2024
Another version of same at the Kyiv Post
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/26215
And my landing page at the Kyiv Post
https://www.kyivpost.com/authors/715
Leave it to Stevie to be the source for sheer stupidity and still take a bow! It is like Deloitte being sanctioned by the SEC and using that fact in marketing campaigns!
“Paul Bedard at the Washington Examiner kindly ran a piece based on my last post”
Only Stupid Steve would brag about being noticed by this right wing rag.
Stupid Steve is so proud of himself that the Kyiv Post ran one of his stupid stories. Here’s something you should know:
On 8 November 2021, the newspaper was temporarily shut down after the editorial staff’s disagreement with planned changes to the outlet led to the owner firing all reporters, many of whom then joined the newly-founded Kyiv Independent.
I guess that is why the owner decided to run Stevie’s trash. Of course one should question any claim that Russia has lost 1000 soldiers per day as that would mean they have lost almost 700 thousand soldiers so far, which would be multiples of the number of soldiers Putin committed to his war crimes in Ukraine.
Then again getting the facts right have never been Stevie’s style. After all he is all about marketing his stupid trash so what does reality have to do with that?
“Russia is on a path to lose 650,000 soldiers and civilians by late 2024, nudging aside the horrific death toll of the Crimean War of 1853. In that war, 450,000 died over 900 days at a time the Russian Empire had half the population it does today.”
Where the eff do you get such numbers. This may be the total number of deaths by all nations involved in this 1853-1856 war but it is not how many Russians died. Stevie – you claims rarely have any semblance in reality but that has never bothered you. After all – you brag about being on Fox and Friends.
Crimean War Casualties
https://search.findmypast.co.uk/search-world-records/crimean-war-casualties-1853-1856#:~:text=The%20allied%20forces%20against%20the,Russian%20Empire%20%E2%80%93%20450%2C125%20casualties
The pace of Russian soldier ‘eliminations’ is as reported in the official Ukrainian numbers, and averaged 964 / day during November and December. That’s the pace I projected forward, with the caveat that this may change. I think it already has, as I don’t think Russia can sustain losses of 1,000 troops per day indefinitely.
Here’s the Russian losses spreadsheet
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ajxXMyo-gClcmknxy2DxRNQ7ANE8KwJTNlsUuuH6Dp0/edit#gid=0
The split of ‘eliminations’ between deaths and injuries is an open question, as is the difference between those injuries creating permanent disabilities, and those which allow return of soldiers to the field over a period of time. And then there’s the linkage of all those to public opinion.
I think, anyway you slice it, 1,000 eliminations per day is a major war. And I think we have to treat this war as we did WWI, a long, painful, and as importantly, boring and psychologically draining war of on-going death and destruction. This is not Gulf War I or II; it is not Afghanistan; and it is not Gaza, where overwhelming US or Israeli force simply steamrollers the other side. This is a war where progress is hard and attrition plays a major role.
Nevertheless, historically such wars do not last forever. I don’t think this one lasts longer than WWI, at least not at the current pace of casualties, which puts the end of the war at Sept. 2025.
I understand your criticizing my outlets, a Ukrainian and Washington DC daily, respectively.
I think, though, both serve a purpose. I am introducing Ukrainian readers — at least English-speaking ones — to the concept of a long war. Zelenskyy has avoided doing this and has ticked off some Ukrainians as a result. Second, I introduce the concept of winning the war as bleeding out Russia while being able to sustain huge losses for an extended period of time in the interest of independence. I do this also through a paper widely read, at least on the right, in DC. And, as Menzie points out, the right needs some convincing right now. I am trying to contribute to that effort and am gradually receiving some recognition as a result.
Nowadays, you can pick a topic, develop some expertise, and after a while establish some public presence doing so. I’ve now done it twice, with illegal immigration and the Price Cap. There is absolutely nothing preventing anyone else from doing so. I have no resources not available to the general public. You could do it. So then, here’s my question. What have you published lately? Where are you mentioned in the press? Where are your ideas circulating?
Bitterness is not a lifestyle. Or more precisely, it’s not a worthwhile lifestyle. With all the energy you put into Econbrowser comments, peeg, you could easily pick a topic and develop a name doing so.
This is your source?
“Discover your military ancestor in an index of casualties from the Crimean War.”
Dude – it is clear to me now why you were selected as 2023 troll of the year. Hey Stevie – do you get your economics from the My Pillow guy?
“Nowadays, you can pick a topic, develop some expertise, and after a while establish some public presence doing so. I’ve now done it twice, with illegal immigration and the Price Cap.”
I have read your trash. Fit for Faux News at best. Stevie – you have no expertise. At anything – especially oil markets. Stop pretending as you have proven you are one arrogant moron.
everybody guilty on this list, please take a bow. it takes a true idiot to set such an example for the rest of us. well earned.
Jeffrey Sachs: “On the surface, US foreign policy seems to be utterly irrational. The US gets into one disastrous war after another – Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Ukraine, and Gaza. In recent days, the US stands globally isolated in its support of Israel’s genocidal actions against the Palestinians, voting against a UN General Assembly resolution for a Gaza ceasefire backed by 153 countries with 89% of the world population, and opposed by just the US and 9 small countries with less than 1% of the world population.
In the past 20 years, every major US foreign policy objective has failed. The Taliban returned to power after 20 years of US occupation of Afghanistan. Post-Saddam Iraq became dependent on Iran. Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad stayed in power despite a CIA effort to overthrow him. Libya fell into a protracted civil war after a US-led NATO mission overthrew Muammar Gaddafi. Ukraine was bludgeoned on the battlefield by Russia in 2023 after the US secretly scuttled a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in 2022.
To understand the foreign-policy scam, think of today’s federal government as a multi-division racket controlled by the highest bidders.
Despite these remarkable and costly debacles, one following the other, the same cast of characters has remained at the helm of US foreign policy for decades, including Joe Biden, Victoria Nuland, Jake Sullivan, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, and Hillary Clinton.
What gives?
The puzzle is solved by recognizing that American foreign policy is not at all about the interests of the American people. It is about the interests of the Washington insiders, as they chase campaign contributions and lucrative jobs for themselves, staff, and family members. In short, US foreign policy has been hacked by big money.” https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/corruption-of-us-foreign-policy
But the neocon echo chamber here thinks it’s all about freedom, democracy and human rights…even as the US happily supplies the weapons wanted and needed for the ongoing genocide in Gaza.
As Smedley Butler famaously noted, almost 100 years ago: “War is a racket,” a scheme that the neocon echo chamber here gladly cheers on.
Quite a lot of distortion there, with some truths thrown in the mix.
1. It is true that the neocons believed in overthrowing horrible dictators and nation-building afterward, although not entirely for “freedom, democracy, and human rights” as you write – U. S. interests were probably at least as important as that triad to them. Iraq, ruled by a horrible dictator, and Afghanistan, ruled by a horrible theocracy, were the testbeds for this theory and proved it to be a failure. No serious student of foreign policy today believes in this part of the neocon agenda anymore, and certainly no one on this site, as you keep claiming.
2. The CIA effort to overthrow Assad was hardly a “major U.S. foreign policy objective,” nor was it a “remarkable and costly debacle.” It was a cheap attempt to get rid of a horrible dictator and war criminal, taken with the view that whatever followed couldn’t be worse.
3. Libya did not “fall into a protracted civil war after a US-led…,” it had been in a state of civil war for about two months before NATO intervened with the bombing campaign. It is not at all clear that Gadaffi, another horrible dictator (notice a pattern in the foreign policy adventures you are criticizing?), would have won if NATO hadn’t intervened; it appears the intervention saved thousands of lives in the short run by shortening the civil war, and, in fact, that was its objective. See https://www.brookings.edu/articles/everyone-says-the-libya-intervention-was-a-failure-theyre-wrong/. The civil war that followed the elections after Gadaffi’s death didn’t start until 2 1/2 years later – a bit late to be attributable to NATO’s brief and highly targeted bombing campaign.
4. “Ukraine was bludgeoned on the battlefield by Russia in 2023?” What planet are you living on? Pretty much the reverse happened; Russia and Ukraine both suffered terrible losses, but Russia’s were far greater in both men and materiel than Ukraine’s, and Russia lost a small amount of territory they had previously conquered.
5. Jeffrey Sachs may be a really good economist when it comes to sustainable development; however, he is hardly a foreign policy expert, no more than Menzie, Moses, pgl, Macroduck, baffling, Noneconomist, Ivan, and others. He’s just a guy with an opinion, like the rest of us. The difference is that he has a platform, — not because he’s an expert in the field, but because he’s an expert in a different field.
6. Your list of people “at the helm of US foreign policy for decades” is absurd. Biden was one senator amongst a hundred during a time when Republicans controlled the Presidency as often as Democrats. Hillary was one senator amongst a hundred for eight years and Secretary of State for four. Chuck Schumer? Mitch McConnell? These two were “at the helm of US foreign policy for decades?” You make yourself look ridiculous with statements like this.
“The puzzle is solved” by observing that the U.S., in general, does not like horrible dictatorships, be they theocratic or otherwise, and has tried, for multiple reasons (yes, it is possible to have more than one reason for doing something – a moral reason *and* a selfish reason), to get rid of several of them over the last bunch of years. In this, they have been mostly successful. The nation-building afterwards, not so much.
Ithaqua hasn’t been keeping up with the news…”Ukraine Is on the Cusp of Losing This War: ‘We’re Screwed’
https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-is-on-the-cusp-of-losing-this-war-were-screwed
“On the battlefield the Ukrainian army is facing defeats. Setbacks are seen nearly everywhere along the line of contact. The Russians have forced the Ukrainians out of Marinka, a strategic Donbas village, and are clearing the villages around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Bradley Square in Zaphorize, and elsewhere. Valery Zaluzhny, overall commander of Ukraine’s military, expects that the town of Avdiivka will fall in the next few months. In fact the Ukrainians either will have to pull out sooner or end up on a suicide mission trying to hold out against devastating attacks.
On the political front cracks are getting wider. Yulia Timoshenko who served as Ukraine’s Prime Minister two times and is now a serving member in Ukraine’s Parliament under the banner of the Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) political party. She is a supporter of Ukraine’s membership in the EU and NATO. Timoshenko says that the country is at a dead end and is facing defeat.” https://weapons.substack.com/p/zelensky-needs-to-go-before-ukraine
What planet has Ithaqua living on? He needs to get his head out of the foreign policy bubble…or he believes that it’s a good idea to have Ukraine destroyed to save it…which is what will happen without a negotiated settlement soon.
Then let’s step up to the plate and offer Ukraine nato membership. If russia doesn’t want to stop the war, then let nato make them stop.
The Daily Beast is a lying right wing rag. Everyone knows that. Which is why you cite this garbage? Seriously?
When Ithaqua claims that “Biden was one senator amongst a hundred during a time when Republicans controlled the Presidency as often as Democrats,” he blatantly misrepresents Biden’s importance–“In 2012, Foreign Policy’s James Taub wrote, “It is safe to say that on foreign policy, Biden is the most powerful US vice president in history save for his immediate predecessor, Dick Cheney.”
That’s the kind of background and knowhow few commanders in chief have. “He will come into office with a résumé that’s unmatched on foreign policy experience,” with the possible exception of George H.W. Bush, said former Biden congressional adviser James Rubin. The bad news is that Biden hasn’t always been — and, according to some, never was — successful on the world stage. His critics, including those on the left, contend he made America’s postwar Iraq efforts worse, got too close to authoritarian leaders, and never had a signature foreign policy achievement in Congress or as Obama’s No. 2.”
https://www.vox.com/2020/8/18/21334630/joe-biden-foreign-policy-explainer
Naturally, Biden was a big Iraq War booster and learned nothing from that quagmire.
Biden’s still has no signature foreign policy achievement, unless you count the pointless and futile fiasco in Ukraine. (Never underestimate Joe’s ability to f*** things up!)
Ithaqua has the chutzpah to deride Sachs’ foreign policy creds! Sachs’ creds go well beyond sustainable development, something that really ought to be at the heart of US foreign policy but is sorely lacking. At Harvard, Sachs became the Galen L. Stone Professor of International Trade,[19] director of the Harvard Institute for International Development (1995–1999) and director of the Center for International Development at Harvard Kennedy School (1999–2002)
A foreign policy that promoted sustainable development would be far friendlier to freedom, democracy and human rights than the current one that is based on geopolitical primacy, control of critical resources and war.
JohnH: Former student of Jeffrey Sachs here. I appreciated his class on international finance, and his tutorship when I was writing my undergrad thesis. But his time heading HIID and CID were a long time ago. Just to be clear, his training and early influential writings are in economics/macro specifically; then economic development.
No surprise, JH. You obviously missed the spanking Sachs received from 300 academics—including ten Columbia colleagues and numerous Ukrainian economists and historians— for what they called his “ historical misrepresentations and logical fallacies.”
Unlike you, after your usual babbling, Sachs didn’t torch his own pants but apparently came very close to it .
About the same as you when you express your concern for freedom, democracy, and human rights while serving as this site’s chief cheerleader for the Russian invasion and the devastation resulting from it.
Easy question: how you know when JohnH is lying?
Easy answer: when his lips move.
The joke isn’t on you. It is you.
“The US gets into one disastrous war after another – Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Ukraine, and Gaza.”
Really? Hey Jonny boy – how many US troops are fighting in Ukraine and Gaza? Try ZERO – which is your IQ.
BTW your BFF is Princeton now telling us Russia is taking on 1000 deaths per day. Now I get Stevie is as dumb as you are but could that be right?
Joe Biden has capped insulin prices at $35 per month
https://jabberwocking.com/joe-biden-has-capped-insulin-prices-at-35-per-month/
CNN is reporting that “all three major insulin manufacturers are offering $35/mo caps on out-of-pocket costs.” But that’s not true. They aren’t “offering” anything. They fought tooth and nail against this but were essentially forced by Joe Biden to cap their prices via rebate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act that would otherwise have cost them hundreds of millions of dollars. Credit where it’s due, please.
https://twitter.com/BillPascrell/status/1742259249827213642?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1742259249827213642%7Ctwgr%5Ead1186fd4f88427092f6d1f48df6850877a66720%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fjabberwocking.com%2Fjoe-biden-has-capped-insulin-prices-at-35-per-month%2F
Starting this week millions more Americans can get cheaper insulin. Never forget that when Democrats capped the price of insulin every single republican in Congress voted no and voted to tell Americans to drop dead.
This will have big positive effects on public health. Diabetic patients develop a large number of costly complications (kidney, eye, vascular) – and those are more common and worse depending on peoples blood sugar control. Cost of insulin has driven a lot of poor patients to cut their injections in half or even skip injections if they “feel OK”. The result is poor glucose control and high rates and severity of complications. The market for insulin has long been cornered by a couple of price colluding pharmaceutical companies who could care less about health cost and outcomes as long as they can harvest absurd profits.
For society it would actually be cost-effective to make medicine for hypertension and diabetes free for the uninsured and medicare/medicaid patients. The cost of the outcomes from poorly treating those diseases are more than the cost of generic medicines to treat them.
“The Year in Review, 2023: Menzie being combative, petty, and egotistical.”
Econned being completely pointless as usual. Hey dude – you and JohnH should start your own blog. After all Jonny boy is almost as stupid as you are. Almost but not quite.
And econned returns in the new year with the same old professional jealousy. Some things never change for the turd.
Econned being childish, boorish, and —like a combative 13 year old—happily un embarrassed by either behavior.