NY Fed median expected y/y CPI inflation at 3%. Nowcast for core y/y at 3.9%.

Figure 1: Instantaneous CPI inflation (bold black), y/y core CPI (blue), Bloomberg consensus (green square), median expected CPI y/y CPI inflation from NY Fed (red). December observations for CPI, core CPI 1/8/2024 Cleveland Fed nowcasts. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4.  Source: BLS, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, NBER, and author’s calculation.