The Conference Board’s confidence index is up, following U.Michigan’s survey of sentiment.
Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (tan), and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Daily News Sentiment Index (green), all demeaned and normalized by standard deviation (for the displayed sample period). Michigan December observation is preliminary. The News Index observation for December is through 1/7/2024. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: U.Mich via FRED, Conference Board via Investing.com, SF Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Wells Fargo has constructed a “Animal Spirits Index”, which is the first principal component of five variables: (1) the S&P 500 index, (2) the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, (3) the yield spread, (4) the VIX index and (5) the economic policy uncertainty index.
Source: Wells Fargo, January 30, 2024.
Like the confidence and sentiment indices, the ASI has trended upwards in recent months, and in December stood at levels obtaining on the eve of the pandemic.
Here’s Pew on the same subject, with Biden’s approval rating tossed in:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/01/25/americans-more-upbeat-on-the-economy-bidens-job-rating-remains-very-low/
Unlike Michigan’s confidence data, Pew’s survey shows all the improvement in approval due to Democrats and Democrat-leaning eespondents. Which is probably good for Biden. Better to boost turnout among those who’ll vote for him than win approval from those who won’t.
“Russia’s GDP is expected to rise by 2.6% this year, more than doubling the pace IMF predicted back in October, and slightly slower than the 3% expansion expected in 2023.
“Putin said earlier this month that GDP growth in 2024 could rise above the 3.5% cited by Russian economists in 2023. He also claimed that growth in 2023 was based mostly on domestic consumer and investment demand, including record spending on construction, agriculture, tourism, and freight transport.” https://news.yahoo.com/imf-anticipates-boost-russias-economy-191256942.html
So why does Russian economic growth continue to exceed expectations instead of stagnating or falling further behind, as many war boosters here hope?
Back in April, 2023 James Gailbraith published a piece titled “The Gift of Sanctions: An Analysis of Assessments of the Russian Economy, 2022 – 2023.” So far it looks like he was right to conclude that “when applied to a large, resource-rich, technically proficient economy [like Russia,] after a period of shock and adjustments, sanctions are isomorphic to a strict policy of trade protection, industrial policy, and capital controls. These are policies that the Russian government could not plausibly have implemented, even in 2022, on its own initiative.” http://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/the-effect-of-sanctions-on-russia-a-skeptical-view
Meanwhile, Europe, once one of Russia’s major trading partners, is seeing its economy struggle as a result of sanctions.
You only need to turn to a recent Harper’s Magazine article to see how sanctions have spurred import substitution and domestic economic growth in Russia: “[Ivan Kazankov], a sausage oligarch, is a great supporter of Western sanctions: “They’re an incredible developmental tool for Russia,” he told me. “The West should have imposed them back in the Nineties. We’d be the engine of the world by now. Too bad.” For him, the sanctions are pure adrenaline, and to prove it he added that his company has copied Italian, German, and Israeli “production means” to the letter: “We doubled processing in one year and we supply almost a thousand supermarkets in all of Russia.”
Olesia Sergeeva, a biologist who heads the company that owns a sturgeon farm said, “I wouldn’t say I’m a patriot, and I don’t want to express my thoughts on Putin and the war. But I can assure you that my life hasn’t changed. Not in the least.” She blushed as she spoke, as if the subject were uncomfortable. “The Russians are reacting to the sanctions in an extraordinary way, even with a weak ruble and the inevitable inflation. The prices of essential goods have held steady. And now we’re consuming better and healthier products than before the war, even exceptional cheeses.”
I had never imagined that the rise of hyperlocal food would be one of the recurring themes of this trip. But it appears that the Western sanctions and war economy have intensified a traditional Russian gastronomy movement. Western products had piqued the palates of average urban Russians, and local producers were trying to fill their vacuum, proudly offering Russian-made Camembert and prosciutto. https://harpers.org/archive/2024/01/behind-the-new-iron-curtain/
Sun Tzu, The Art of War :“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
Given the US and NATO’s impressive string of pointless and futile quagmires, it would appear that their delusional foreign policy establishments know neither.
So, Russia invaded Ukraine without provocation, has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians and tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops. It has lost something like 100,000 of his own troops, with another 200,000 wounded. Russian troops have tortured and raped thousands of innocent Ukrainian civilians, bombed civilian targets, forced millions out of their homes, caused food shortages, all in service of grabbing land so Putin can feel like a big deal.
And Johnny want to yammer on about economic estimates. That’s what Johnny would rather babble about because he doesn’t want us to think about the horror Putin has committed in an effort to recreate a tiny part of the “glory” that was the U.S.S.R. until the U.S.S.R. collapsed under its own corruption.
U.S. aid for Ukraine is being debated in Congress, right along wih immigration reform. Republicans tied aid to Ukraine with immigration reform. Democrats agreed to immigration reform. Then Trump told House Republicans immigration reform would screw up his chances for re-election, so no immigration bill and no aid to Ukraine Meanwhile, Johnny is doing his sick little “Russia GOOD!!!” routine so that Putin has a better chance to enslave a nation.
Johnny and Trump, doing Putin’s bidding. Disgusting.
Poor Ducky: “And Johnny want to yammer on about economic estimates.” Not that this is an economics blog or anything!?!
How is it exactly that pointing out the realities the Russian economy is doing Putin’s bidding? Tricky Ducky, and many others here, would prefer to parrot the illusion that Russia is suffering mightily and to promote the notion that Russia (with just a “tad bit” more US aid will crumble.) This is a perfect example of the sunk cost fallacy that has permeated US thinking in all of its pointless and futile quagmires of the past 60 years. Worse, it just leads to more killing and carnage of the people we claim to be defending.
Personally, I prefer Sun Tzu’s advice, not US propaganda.
“ Worse, it just leads to more killing and carnage of the people we claim to be defending.”
Lets be clear johnny, the ONLY thing leading to more death is the continued illegal war being conducted by russia inside of a sovereign ukraine. That is the ONLY thing contributing to these deaths. Everything else you say is just russian propaganda to distract from an illegal and immoral invasion. Russia has absolutely no right to set foot on Ukrainian soil. You ignore this fact and spout russian propaganda. Johnny you are an immoral person.
Baffling: “Everything else you say is just russian propaganda thinks that the IMF forecast of Russian economic growth, which I quoted, is Russian propaganda!”
Just think, Baffling, most of this could have been avoided if the US had not sabotaged peace agreements two years ago.
‘Just think, Baffling, most of this could have been avoided if the US had not sabotaged peace agreements two years ago.’
Of course this claim that the US undermined a possible peace agreement is a debunked lie. Jonny boy knows it is debunked but Jonny boy repeats the lie over and over. Yea – Jonny boy is one stupid little liar. But you knew that a long time ago.
Johnny all of the deaths could have been avoided had russia not illegally invaded russia and committed this immoral war. Dont blame the usa for russias misdeeds.
“How is it exactly that pointing out the realities the Russian economy is doing Putin’s bidding?”
I’ll leave to the rest of the gang to note what a revolting POS you really are. That’s rather obvious to everyone anyway.
But you are not pointing out “realities”. First of all – forecasts are forecasts not actual historical events. For someone who tries to mock people who are professional forecasters (like you have any effing clue) it is the height of absurdity to claim 2024 expected GDP growth has already occurred.
Secondly your cherry picking here is so transparent and clearly dishonest, it is beyond the pale. I already noted how the Russian inflation rate is higher Ukraine’s is and yet lying little Jonny boy claims Ukraine has rampant inflation. I already noted how Russian’s real interest rate is above 8% – likely because of its military Keynesian which you praise even as you claim the same Keynesianism in the late 1960’s for the US was just horrible.
Look – you can write even more dishonest trash in reply. I don’t care. You have no integrity on any topic. You have zero intelligence. And you have even less morals. No – little Jonny boy is nothing more than a disgusting mental retard. And that’s your best qualities.
Macroduck is right to call out your clear disdain for the citizens of Ukraine as you celebrate Russian war crimes against them. But let’s stick to economics which you clearly suck at. After all you said Ukraine’s inflation rate was out of control even though it is currently 5%. Now 5% is a little high but your precious Russian economy’s inflation rate is 7.4%. So why did little Jonny boy not admit this? Oh – little Jonny boy is too stupid to check the data. Got it.
So permit me to notify Putin’s stupid little pet poodle that nominal interest rates in Russia are now 16%, which means real interest rates are above 8%. And little Jonny boy gets confused that the US economy has real interest rates near 3%?
The reason both nations have high interest rates is strong aggregate demand but here’s the difference that little Jonny boy never grasped. US policy is encouraging investment demand. Now had little Jonny boy bothered to read his own damn links, he would have seen Putin is running military Keynesianism much like the US did in the late 1960’s. And little Jonny boy thought he was so cute to coin the term “guns and butter”. Never mind little Jonny boy is 60 years late on that one. But little Jonny boy thinks he is a hot shot to criticize US guns and butter ala military Keynesianism but praises Putin when he does the same. Yea – little Jonny boy is a two faced liar. But we all knew that years ago.
So your “evidence” is: a) Putin, that honest and trustworthy individual who is an impartial observer of the Russian economy, says so, and b) a Russian sausage oligarch has increased production. Oh, yes, and someone in Russia makes cheese and labels it “Camembert.”
Wow.
And, of course, the slowdown in growth in the EU *must* be due to sanctions. The fact that the European Central Bank has raised interest rates for main refinancing operations by 4 percentage points between July 2022 and the end of Sept. 2023 couldn’t possibly be relevant, could it?
Ivan Kazankov – a sausage oligarch – is your Russian economic expert? Seriously? Oh wait – you rely on Art Laffer for expertise on the US economy. You are indeed THAT DUMB!
Jonny cheerleader singing Putin’s praises totally unaware that his soiled panties are showing. Ewww!
Is Trump the full employment ticket for 2nd rate attorneys? He has so far spent $50 million on lawyers and the clock is still counting.
Now I should qualify that – Trump has not spent any of his money as the $50 million was raised in campaign contributions from his moronic supporters. MAGA!
Employment Cost Index Summary
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX – DECEMBER 2023
Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month
period ending in December 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries
increased 0.9 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from September 2023.
(See tables A, 1, 2, and 3.)
Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 4.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in December
2023 and increased 5.1 percent in December 2022. Wages and salaries increased 4.3 percent for the 12-month
period ending in December 2023 and increased 5.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in December 2022.
Benefit costs increased 3.8 percent over the year and increased 4.9 percent for the 12-month period ending
in December 2022. (See tables A, 4, 8, and 12.)
BLS reports this data in inflation adjusted terms too and real compensation rose. Of course you will hear JohnH and Faux News claiming inflation adjusted compensation fell because that’s what they do – LIE
BTW – JohnH just said I never posted this link as I do not know how to. Look – I do not mind have an internet stalker but why is my stalker a total mental retard?
I have no problem giving a voice to the opposition. But i demand that they argue honestly and in good faith. Johnny has promoted the illegal invasion of Ukraine without once noting russia has illegally and immorally conducted a systematic action of murder and rape of the people of Ukraine. It is appalling. I do notice rick stryker and econned remain silent in the face of his falsehoods, and that will be addressed later. But the falsehoods and misinformation spouted by johnny should be silenced by this blog, just like others who continued to promote misinformation. We should protect opposition voices, but that protection and courtesy should jot be extended to those who continue to promote a false narrative. Johnny has been promoting a false narrative that an unjust war has been conducted against peace loving russia. Nothing could be further from the truth. I respect freedom to voice your opinion. I do not respect freedom to lie on a daily basis.
“But the falsehoods and misinformation spouted by johnny should be silenced by this blog, just like others who continued to promote misinformation.”
I have suggested this often. ltr was banned for FAR less. CoRev was banned for FAR less. Yes our host has asked Jonnny boy to cut this garbage out but is clear Jonny boy has no respect for this blog, integrity, and even decent morality. After all he is a spokesperson for a war criminal.
pgl: ltr was not banned. I edited his/her text because of long quotes. CoRev was banned because he refused to apologize for his claim that I had posted manipulated data, despite my repeated requests that he do so (and his repeated refusal to acknowledge his mistaken claim).
Should JohnH make a misogynistic/racist/homophobic claim, or assert either of us bloggers of manipulating the data without indication, then he will be banned immediately. In other words, merely lying about what other articles represent, lying about what other commenters state, and just being plain incredibly stupid and mendacious is not sufficient to be banned.