That’s the topic for The Morning Show on “The Ideas Network”, 8am CT, at
Super Bowl gambling, New STEM museum, Economic forecast, Vocal cord dysfunction
That’s the topic for The Morning Show on “The Ideas Network”, 8am CT, at
Super Bowl gambling, New STEM museum, Economic forecast, Vocal cord dysfunction
Received this from an acquaintance of mine in Georgia:
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/feb/13/america-could-repeat-japans-lost-decade/
A snippet:
In the 1980s, Japan appeared to have the world by the tail before collapsing into a lost decade and malaise. A similar fate seems unimaginable for the United States given the big wins in artificial intelligence thanks to OpenAI godfather Microsoft and Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta exploiting the global commercial opportunities of the internet, and Apple and Elon Musk’s enterprises giving master classes in reinvention.
Yet poisoned politics that beget dysfunctional government policies could cast the U.S. economy into an abyss like the one that swallowed Japan.
— Peter Morici
This might be a better link to use in future. Just put this link up and tell readers to press the play button after the link jump. That link in the post didn’t work for me, but maybe because I was late for the party.
https://tunein.com/radio/WPR-Ideas-Network-970-s29220/
Sorry, Moses. The link was to a February 13 article and I just tested it in a private window with no cache and it worked fine. But it wasn’t to Wisconsin Public Radio.
Peter Morici was giving his opinion on the state of the states. I copied it here for you.
———
OPINION:
In the 1980s, Japan appeared to have the world by the tail before collapsing into a lost decade and malaise. A similar fate seems unimaginable for the United States given the big wins in artificial intelligence thanks to OpenAI godfather Microsoft and Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta exploiting the global commercial opportunities of the internet, and Apple and Elon Musk’s enterprises giving master classes in reinvention.
Yet poisoned politics that beget dysfunctional government policies could cast the U.S. economy into an abyss like the one that swallowed Japan.
In the 1960s through 1980s, Japan soared on the back of exports — in particular to the open U.S. market — through a combination of management with tireless dedication to high-quality, protected domestic markets — often privately conspired through keiretsu networks of interlocking ownership among banks, trading companies, retailers, manufacturers and their suppliers — government subsidies and state direction. It accomplished higher growth than the United States and Western Europe by seizing global leadership in one manufacturing industry after another.
Many Americans don’t remember or don’t know that the semiconductor industry was pioneered here and made a stopover in Japan before Taiwan and South Korea won the top spots in the global supply chain.
Japan is still No. 3 thanks to strong positions in memory, sensors and power chips, and the United States is a flagging No. 4. But the world can’t make enough of the most advanced chips without the foundries at the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. or Samsung.
Industrial policies and subsidies that drive exports often attract foreign defensive reactions. Japan was forced to accept voluntary export restraints with the United States in textiles, steel, color televisions, machine tools, automobiles and semiconductors, and Japanese automakers established production here.
Industrial policies encourage pantheon misuse of capital, inefficiency, and reliance on a narrower group of national champions to fuel innovation. Even through Japan’s malaise, Sony, Nintendo and Toyota remained world-beater companies.
China is at similar risk, as former President Donald Trump was less surgical, slapping tariffs on steel and a broad range of products while in office. President Biden has not rolled those back and has introduced industrial policies and subsidies in solar and wind generation, automobiles, batteries and semiconductors.
China is limiting Apple’s market access, and the European Union is fashioning new industrial policies and subsidies. But the real problem for the U.S. economy — as it was for Japan and is for China today — is that industrial policies inspire inefficient investment and easy macro policies to compensate.
The federal government deficit is ballooning, yet pressures mount for more business tax breaks and entitlement spending and the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and return to the days of cheap capital.
Ten-year, inflation-adjusted Treasury yields averaged 0.2% between the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and last year. They resulted in overinvestment in commercial real estate and universities, supported by yet another industrial policy, the federal student loan machine.
General Motors benefits from Mr. Biden’s auto and battery industrial policies but has made bad bets on self-driving vehicles and eschewed hybrid vehicles.
Those subsidies provide cover for excessive CEO compensation. For example, GM’s Mary Barra is paid far more than her counterparts at Toyota and Honda. The new United Auto Workers contract makes it more difficult for the Detroit Three to match Japanese and Korean imports on quality and price without protection.
It us reflected by automakers’ cheapening products in ways they hope drivers won’t notice.
Consumer Reports test-drove the new Dodge Hornet in the highly competitive small SUV segment and found a noisy interior filled with cheap plastic. The magazine gave it a terribly low rating against comparable Toyotas, Subarus and Hondas.
Mr. Biden’s union preferences and social justice promoting training and day care mandates only worsen the 44% cost disadvantages U.S. semiconductor manufacturers have with Asian foundries. Those will likely require tariff protection or arm-twisting other industries to sell the chips government-financed factories produce — an American version of the keiretsu.
We may have record job creation as the pandemic fades from the headlines, but workers are disgruntled. High-paying jobs are getting scarcer, and an increasing number of Americans are working multiple gigs.
Young American adultss are not having children, which recalls Japan’s and China’s baby droughts. This forces reliance on immigration that isn’t properly managed to attract those with the most needed skills.
Notwithstanding the exhortations of statists at the left-leaning Roosevelt Institute and New York Times as well as the Biden West Wing, America is still about free markets, and the capitalists among us like to point to the record stock prices.
But the Magnificent Seven — Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta and Tesla — drove two-thirds of 2023 gains in the S&P 500. The latter accounts for about 80% of U.S. publicly traded equities.
An economy that supports 335 million people leans on a very narrow reed by relying on just seven companies to drive prosperity.
• Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
I should apologize to you Bruce, (And you know I hate apologizing to you), I didn’t mean it as a “reply” to you, but for Menzie’s link. So that’s my failure in communication, But I’ll read what you posted nonetheless and THINK on it. That’s my word to you Bruce.
So let’s get this right Bruce-ie, you don’t want “government interference” b y “dirty liberals” but are angry Biden didn’t tell the CEO of GM what her salary should be??? Is that right??
Bruce, my mind does get confused sometimes when drinking, but Bruce-ie, you put a whole new spin on the term bi-polar when you complain about USA policies.
Moses, as I indicated before, this was an opinion piece by Peter Morici which I provided for discussion/reflection. If you have an issue with it, he can be contacted at pmorici@umd.edu.
But, no, there is no inference that I think the government should be telling anyone what their income should be. That’s a matter between individuals and their employers (or individuals working independently). If GM believes Barra is worth $millions, that’s decided by the BoD. I find it a bit strange that is your only takeaway from the article. But thanks for reading it before commenting.
Interesting comparison when comparing the two nations’ inflation rate over the last 4 decades:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1gErA
And GDP over the last 10 years
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1gEvY
What on God’s Earth would make anyone but a complete idiot think America was entering either actual deflation or stagnant growth?? A man entering dementia, retired, who gets off on being on Newsmax TV, possibly the only media network in existence that is even farther down the political right than FOX news??
Bruce–ie, you make the theory fit the data, not cherry pick data to fit your fantasy.
Excellent rebuttal. I had to wonder about Brucie’s weird comparison when I read this subtitle:
Our capitalist society is leaning more on industrial policies
Anyone who even remotely understands Japan’s Lost Decade realizes it was not their industrial policies that led to their episode of weak aggregate demand.
Besides – this new take sort of undercuts two of Brucie’s recent thesis:
(1) the US had allegedly had too much aggregate demand under Biden (I guess now that events have suggested Brucie and Larry Summers missed the mark there, Brucie has flip flopped).
(2) Brucie the other day suggested China’s economy was too open. But now he is preaching from the free trade soap box.
Message to Brucie boy – do make up your warped little mind.
pgl, take it up with Peter Morici. I’m sure he’ll be receptive to your snide comments.
Bruce Hall once again being a gutless weasel. Hey BBrucie boy. If you can’t defend then don’t post it
pgl, I realized you were remarking about a different Peter Morici than I was. Sorry for the confusion.
https://www.rhsmith.umd.edu/directory/peter-morici
Your link dumba$$:
‘Ph.D., State University of New York at Albany’
I already noted this. I also noted he tends to write for right wing fluff publications. No Brucie – it is you that have provided an incomplete resume of this fellow. And as usual, you do not know your own head from your a$$.
BTW – you have not addressed many of the critiques of this fluff attempt at economics. Like I already – if you are incapable of discussing the actual issues, then do not post the article. Unlesss you enjoy being a total weasel.
pgl, I don’t have to “defend” what an economist and business professor at the University of Maryland has written. If you don’t like it, you should enumerate your reasons. You are the one playing “weasel” here. Offering up analyses and opinions from “experts” should be a welcome part of any discussion unless you believe only you are the arbiter of truth.
Take the time to tear apart Prof. Morici’s article if you can. After all, economics is a 100% exacting science, so I’m sure you will have bulletproof arguments.
I did enumerate my reasons. I guess Brucie is too stupid to get the simple points
pgl, also thought you’d like to see/hear Prof. Morici on C-Span. He touches briefly on the political influences that impact economic thinking toward the end of his interview as well as his comments about Claudia Sahm.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?532631-3/peter-morici-inflation-2024-us-economic-outlook
I certainly don’t agree with his global warming take on things and associated dire warnings about everything sliding under the sea, but that’s outside of an economist’s area of expertise so I let that slide. I think his take on insurance “inflation” is correct because he recognizes that population and infrastructure is spreading into areas that were untenable before the minuscule rise in “global” temperatures than is undetectable by a person standing outside. But let’s not go there. Enjoy the video and see if you have any points of agreement.
“I certainly don’t agree with his global warming take on things”
The one thing he gets right and you disagree with him. Same old MAGA hat wearing moron named Bruce Hall!
Wait – housing prices are high because of too much regulations. Oh wait – we need housing regulations because of global warming. Your boy seems to be contradicting himself on this one Brucie.
And when someone else says something smart on the macroeconomy – he immediately accuses her of being a partisan Democrat? What an arse.
Let’s see. Peter Morici did get a Ph.D. from SUNY-Albany. Not Columbia, NY University, etc. SUNY- Albany. He is a a columnist, with publications such as The Washington Times, The Hill, Townhall.com, and Newsmax. Morici has appeared as a guest on Newsmax TV and Fox News Channel. Yea – not AER, JPE, etc. Townhall and the like.
Hey Brucie – your gurus have the finest credentials!
pgl, it seems to me you skipped over some of Morici’s CV.
Oh did he teach at MIT? NO LITTLE Brucie boy.
Wow, pgl, that’s some snobbery. I’m sure Prof. Chinn might feel slighted regarding your opinion of the worth of his Ph.D. from Wisconsin.
Bruce Hall: I don’t know how this fits into your exchange with pgl, just a point of clarification: PhD from UC Berkeley, dissertation adviser Jeffrey Frankel, committee members Richard A. Meese and Barry Eichengreen.
pgl, excuse me, Prof. Chinn teaching (as opposed to receiving his Ph.D.) at Wisconsin, not MIT, which appears to be the yardstick you use. I guess being a professor at the University of Maryland is very lower class in your pantheon.
As I indicated, the link was to an opinion piece by economist Peter Morici. It is not something I just decided to write in my spare time. Accept it or reject it. I’m just offering it up as part of the general conversation on the topic of the economy.
How many times will you duck discussing the actual issues here? Oh wait – you are a weasel through and through. Never mind.
Luna Khan, at it again:
https://www.axios.com/2024/02/13/lina-khan-monopolies-ai-media-ftc
I want to be Lina when I grow up.
Huh?? But all the journalists are dirty liberals!!! Doesn’t she watch Maria Botoxlips on FOX?? Obama is secretly calling all the shots.
She’s a rock star. Given all of his soap box preaching, it is odd that little Jonny boy never mentions he. I guess what she is doing is way over little Jonny boy’s excuse for a brain.
pgl,
This is about activity in the other side of legal from transfer pricing, but I thought it might interest you:
https://news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of-humanities-arts-and-social-sciences/major-new-study-to-identify-kleptocratic-red-flags-and-craft-new-anti-corruption-rules/
Thanks. Maybe I should send them My resume
The big money is in consultancy. And the best part about consultancy is you never get held accountable. Collect fees and move on to the next sucker.
“This is the first-ever large-scale effort to marshal the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project’s capacities for academic research, including its Aleph database. Aleph is an investigative data platform that helps investigative journalists “follow the money” and contains more than 4 billion entities, including detailed information on corporate ownership and financial transactions.”
Now I can definitely relate to this. Some of this is in the open as in a hot litigation about to happen in US Tax Court on how Eaton got most of its US profits sourced in low tax Hungary. Massive amounts of intercompany loans with a stated interest rate near 10% even though the company’s credit rating is A and the government bond rate was the time (Nov. 29, 2012) was just over 1.5%. Can tax evasion really be this easy?
Trumps Putin pall is at it again:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/14/politics/house-intel-chairman-serious-national-security-threat/index.html
Serious threat from Russia against US. So who’s side are we on in Ukraine? Maybe it is a good idea to support the enemy of our enemy – and if you have a hard time figuring out who our enemy is you have no business asking to become President of US.
And whoever Putin attacks, Trump will applaud Putin for doing so. I heard that Ukraine just took out a Russian war ship. Oh my – no dog food for JohnH tonight at the Kremlin.
Yes Ukraine with no navy has taken out about 1/3 of the Russian black sea fleet. That tells us something about the vulnerability (uselessness) of ships in a modern war – or the strength of drones for war. The drone swarms used by Ukraine are basically modified jet skies that have incredible maneuverability (compared to missiles and torpedos), high speed, and are very hard to detect.
Who had “Russian capability to do war in orbit on their 2024 bingo card?”
Could be something to do with on orbit ability to knock off US surveillance “assets” on prbit, a thorn in Russia’s side in targeting Russian forces in Ukraine to be shot up by US weapons.
Who here aside from us “older guys” remember “sputnik” in 1957?
The UK has been in an economic funk since Russia invaded Ukraine in 1Q22.
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRITAIN-ECONOMY/gkpldbxaxpb/chart.png
France doesn’t seem far behind.
https://news.yahoo.com/france-lower-growth-forecast-eu-103044022.html
The EU overall is projecting minuscule growth for 2024 although inflation is close to the US.
https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/02/15/eu-growth-prospects-dim-inflation-expected-to-further-retreat-european-commission
Japan had definite economic weakness.
https://businessmirror.com.ph/2024/02/15/japan-slips-into-recession-becoming-4th-largest-economy-behind-us-china-and-now-germany/
China’s economy seems to be growing but there are underlying problems of bad investments.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/markets/el-erian-krugman-and-other-economists-have-very-different-opinions-on-china-s-struggling-economy/ar-BB1i0NHn
So, one might ask how the US will continue to avoid an economic slowdown with the rest of the world grinding down? Are we now on a war-footing economy? If so, is there a piper to be paid soon?
“one might ask how the US will continue to avoid an economic slowdown with the rest of the world grinding down? Are we now on a war-footing economy? If so, is there a piper to be paid soon?”
Brucie seems to be very confused here. First of all – the US is not at war. Secondly government purchases under Biden are below where they were under Trump. But yea – the US economy is doing well under Bidenomics.
Come on little Brucie – keep this up and Kelly Anne Conway will have to fire your incompetent little rear end.,
Now we all know little Brucie is dumber than a retarded rock when it comes to basic economics so let’s take his observations that certain other economies have very modest growth which MAGA hat moron Bruce prays will mean a US recession in 2024 and educate little Brucie that his concerns (make that hopes) would show up as a decline in US real exports. One can easily check the data with FRED:
Real Exports of Goods and Services
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXPGSC1
Huh – real exports are up. Oh I’m sorry little Brucie. I just ruined your little day.
well bruce, a normal person might say well done. the usa has a strong economy while the rest of the world seems to be struggling. perhaps competent leadership is impactful after all.
you just can’t admit that bidenomics is producing a robust us economy. record stock market. nice returns on bond and cd rates. record low unemployment. average inflation. well done, President Biden.
All true. And rising exports which contradicts Brucie’s feeble attempt at international macroeconomics.