2024 q4/q4 growth at 2.1% matches FT-IGM survey discussed in previous post.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), CBO projection (blue), Survey of Professional Forecasters (red), FT-Booth median forecast (brown inverted triangle), FOMC Summary of Economic Projections March 20 (open light green square), GDPNow of 3/19 (light blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$. Source: BEA 2024Q4 2nd release, CBO Budget and Economic Outlook (February), Philadelphia Fed SPF, Booth School, Federal Reserve Board, Atlanta Fed (3/19), and author’s calculations.
Repeating myself –
tered toward the bottom of the range of estimates, putting an additional cut this year within easy reach.
R* is now put at 0.6% rather than 0.5%, but we should ignore that, because Johnny said so.
Growth estimates for 2024-2026 have all been raised, though the longer-term average is unchanged at 1.8%. Maybe Fed economists have done what Goldman has done, taking into account the growth implications of increased immigration. The median estimate for the jobless rate is now 4.0% for end-2024, rather than 4.1%. That’s still just barely a recessionary signal by the Sahm rule, but GDP estimates no longer suggest recession. Lots of official estimates are blending recession signals with non-recessionary forecasts these days – so I guess “it’s different this time”.