2023Q4 GDP Advances in All 50 States; Real Personal Income Declines in 5

From BEA:

Source: BEA.

Nominal personal income rose in all states.

Source: BEA.

However, what we care about is real personal income. I deflate using (nationwide) Chained CPI inflation (2.71% q/q AR), and calculate Q4 q/q AR growth.

Figure 1: Real personal income growth in 2023Q4, annualized. Source: BEA, BLS, and author’s calculations.

Seven states exhibit negative growth in real personal income: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas and Hawaii.

Coincident indices through January paint a different picture from that derived from GDP or real personal income.

Source: Philadelphia Fed

Here’s a time series of the diffusion index for the 3 month growth rate of the Coincident Index.

Figure 1: Diffusion index for 3 month growth rate of coincident indices. Source: Philadelphia Fed, March 2024.

15 thoughts on “2023Q4 GDP Advances in All 50 States; Real Personal Income Declines in 5

  1. Macroduck

    I wonder if the Idaho, Utah, Montana, Wyoming growth spurt is mostly driven by population growth. Locals have been complaining about the influx, and it’s pretty easy to drive a high percentage change from a low base. Residential construction and a new increment of consumption could do it.

    The next tier of states over – the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas – got skunked. Not as appealing to those escaping the flames, perhaps.

    Reply
    1. Moses Herzog

      I think you already know this MD, but I feel the need to declare it. I am a fan of the woman’s intellect, but not her morality. And I might even give her 1/4 “pass” on doing the best she can with her circumstances, in a situation where it’s hard to find an “off-ramp”. But in the end she knows she’s underwriting mass murder. And that’s a big problem. But I do admire her smarts.

      Reply
  2. Ivan

    Turns out Trump lied when he claimed in court he couldn’t come up with the $465 million bond. The same guy who posted the current $175 million offered to get the bigger one together but they never called him back. But I am sure they saved a lot of money by lying and not having to make the bigger bond. Lying in one direction or the other depending on what saves you money is classic Trump – I guess you cannot wean an old dog off his old tricks.

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/02/investing/trump-bond-firm/index.html

    Reply
  3. Ivan

    Interesting information from Ukraines (usually very reliable) intelligence agencies:

    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-2-2024

    “Skibitskyi stated that the Russian military currently has about 950 high-precision operational-strategic and strategic level missiles with a range of or exceeding 350 kilometers available in its arsenal.[29] Skibitskyi stated that the Russian military tries to prevent the missile stockpile from falling below 900 missiles and that Russian forces will temporarily pause missile strikes to accumulate more missiles to a level above this threshold.[30] Skibitskyi stated that Russia plans to produce 40 Kh-101 cruise missiles in April and suggested that Russia will have roughly at least 90 missiles to conduct two or three more large strike series against Ukrainian targets before pausing to restock missiles”

    So in order to keep a minimum defensive capability, Russia is now down to the “shoot them as you make them” stage for missiles that can reach deep into Ukraine. Russia wasted their stockpiles on a failed attempt to plunge Ukraine into darkness. With the summer coming up there is not even much of a “terrorize civilians” effect left, even if they had the missiles to do it. Provided that we finally get our act together and give Ukraine more anti-missile supplies, they can relatively safely further build up their own domestic military production. Clearly the US is not a reliable provider, so they have to be able to make the critical frontline stuff themselves, and also ammo for their missile defenses. Russias ability to build up further production is limited by a lot of things, including the current wave of xenophobia driving their workforce out. The unforgivable GOP delays brought us very close to a disaster where Russia indeed could overcome Ukraines anti-missile defenses and do severe damage deep into Ukraine – thankfully Russian incompetence once again saved Ukraine.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *