Food Inflation Moderates

But convergence in the East North Central portion of the Midwest is slower. Follow up to this post.

Figure 1: CPI – food at home nationwide (bold blue), ERS forecast of February (light blue square), Midwest B/C cities (tan), East North Central (green). Midwest and East North Central series seasonally adjusted using X-13. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, ERS, and author’s calculations.

Food at home prices have risen faster than the CPI overall, both nationwide and in the MIdwest. However, the convergence has proceeded faster nationwide (mostly my overall CPI rising faster).

Figure 2:  Log ratio of CPI – food at home to overall CPI nationwide  (bold blue), for East North Central (green). East North Central series seasonally adjusted using X-13. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

 

18 thoughts on “Food Inflation Moderates”

  1. pgl

    Even though beef prices now are where they were in July 2023 – MAGA moron Bruce Hall tried to peddle we have beef price inflation. Oh wait – he later conceded that he was talking about some strange forecast of beef prices in 2025. Yea – Brucie remains dumber than a rock.

      1. pgl

        You are such a whiney little boy. Look MAGA troll – if you don’t want people to mock your stupid worthless comments, here’s an idea. Don’t make them.

  2. James

    If the Producer Price Index is currently 2.1 percent for the past 12 months and Consumer Price Index rose 3.5 percent over the past 12 months – I always wonder who is collecting the difference? Also…I enjoy reading earnings reports from food processors – they seem to be doing well – especially if they have near oligopoly control of a market https://www.tysonfoods.com/news/news-releases/2024/2/tyson-foods-reports-first-quarter-2024-results Hmmm – price gouging perhaps? https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/11/companies-inflation-price-gouging

    2. pgl

      Interesting data on Tyson Food – motivating me to check their latest 10-K filing. I learned that 18.6% of their sales are to Wal Mart.

    3. pgl

      Tyson Foods processes and sells a lot of beef. This got me curious as to how much beef the US exports. Now it seems we are both the largest producer of beef as well as the largest consumer of beef in the world – both figures near 12.9 million tons in 2022. Now we do export some beef but we also import beef with the net exports hovering near zero.

  3. Moses Herzog

    I got gasoline yesterday at $2.99 when most of my local market is $3.27 it really means how much do people want to work at it. Most people are lazy and they go whichever station is near when they were on the last of the tank.

    1. Bruce Hall

      Moses, that’s true. You can always find a station that is below the average in your area, but sometimes you use up the savings just driving to and from that station. We have a Costco about 10 miles away, so we always fill up when we are shopping there. Otherwise we have a station about a mile away associated with a food chain that gives discounts based on monthly food purchases so we use that when we need fuel and have no plans to go to Costco. Either way, it’s not much effort.

      Costco Regular in our area.
      $3.379

      But we are now in the seasonal price increases for gasoline because of the changeover to summer blends. Too bad ICEVs can’t run one blend all years given the sophisticated electronic engine controls and exhaust systems.
      https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2024/04/10/gas-prices-going-up/73261328007/

      ALWAYS PLAN AHEAd

      1. Macroduck

        Too bad that we have policy aimed at reducing death and illness caused by auto exhaust? I guess that depends on one’s priorities. I value life over a few pennies, even if it’s the life of a stranger.

      2. pgl

        “You can always find a station that is below the average in your area”

        And MAGA MORON Bruce Hall can always find one price that has risen by more than the average as in your stupid assertion that Biden is driving up auto insurance rates.

        Then again if MAGA MORON Bruce Hall ends up seeing a price (as in beef) that has not risen, he can just make up a stupid lie that they have (well they might in 2025).

        Bruce Hall – MAGA MORON Supreme!

      3. pgl

        ‘No, study doesn’t show electric cars pollute 1,850 times as much as gas cars | Fact check’

        Gee Brucie Boy – I followed one of your links and found this story that debunks one of your favorite LIES. Come on Bruce – try READING your own links sometime. DUH!

      4. Moses Herzog

        Well, Mr Brucie, normally you make me angry and bring my blood pressure up, But today you added to my education, so I appreciate that. Or maybe I’m just having some wine, At THIS MOMENT I appreciate you either way and hope God Blesses you.

        —–Messed in the head—-Uncle Moses

      5. pgl

        Another episode of MAGA MORON Bruce Hall not reading his own links:

        ‘Even though drivers are experiencing high gas prices right now, Gross said these prices will most likely decrease as we approach the cooler months in 2024. As the months go from August to September, drivers can expect to see gas prices decrease between 10 to 20 cents.’

        Brucie wanted to tell us higher beef prices would turn voters away from Biden except beef prices have not risen of late. Yea – they MIGHT go up something after the election. But gasoline prices are up. Trump! Trump! Trump! Oh wait – they are expected to fall BEFORE the election.

        Poor little Brucie – none of his MAGA nonsense is panning out.

  5. pgl

    Liz Cheney on Moscow Marge!

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pathetic-and-unamerican-liz-cheney-goes-on-attack-against-moscow-marge-taylor-greene/ar-BB1lxalT?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=b685a408c94644c1a7dbc6c08593844e&ei=28

    “Once again, Moscow Marge is busy deploying her Kremlin talking points. Is she a useful idiot or is she intentionally spreading Putin’s lies?” Cheney asked. “Either way, it’s pathetic and unAmerican.”

    In case you are wondering, this is the trash Cheney was attacking:

    In an interview with the far-right streaming station “Real American Voices,” Greene claimed there was no genuine concern that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin had plans to invade the rest of Europe if he took over Ukraine. She used the interview to repeat her criticism of U.S. funding for Putin’s war.

  6. pgl

    James got me interested in the US trade position in beef. After all – we have been enduring the usual MAGA stupidity from Bruce Hall who thinks some forecast of rising beef prices means we are now paying more for steaks and burgers now – which of course is not true. But here is an interesting discussion of beef imports into the US.

    Reviewing the Tariff-Rate Quotas for U.S. Beef Imports
    December 1, 2022 International Agricultural Trade Report
    https://fas.usda.gov/data/reviewing-tariff-rate-quotas-us-beef-imports

    Now if US beef production does fall slightly over the next year, we could import more beef from some of our trading partners. Of course a Trump Presidency would likely screw that up[ by imposing tariffs. Funny thing – little Brucie pretends he is a free trader unless the tariff has Trump’s name on it. Yea – I bet Brucie loved those Trump steaks.

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