Per Eeckhout (2023), actuals for CPI and PPI, and nowcast for PCE, headline and core.
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (bold blue), PCE deflator (tan), and PPI (green). PCE observation for March is nowcast as of 4/11. Calculations per Eeckhout (2023). Source: BLS, BEA, via FRED, and Cleveland Fed (accessed 4/11/2024), and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for core CPI (bold blue), core PCE deflator (tan), and core PPI (green). PCE observation for March is nowcast as of 4/11. Calculations per Eeckhout (2023). Source: BLS, BEA, via FRED, and Cleveland Fed (accessed 4/11/2024), and author’s calculations.
Note that instantaneous core CPI has flattened out, while both core PCE deflator and core PPI have declined. However, nowcasted instantaneous core PCE at 2.9% in March remains above the 2% target.
Off topic – right-wing politicians aligned with Russia:
I’ve documented largely successful effort to recruit right-wing groups and politicians as a Russian fifth column in the U.S. Apparently, a similar effort has been underway in Europe, with similar success:
https://www.politico.eu/article/i-hope-ukraine-will-lose-meps-russian-propaganda-channel/
Sixteen right-wing members of the European Parliament from the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, Slovakia, Estonia, Spain, Denmark, Croatia and Belgium have all gone on record in support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia wants to undermine the current democratic, rule-of-law foundations of the post-WWII order. The right seems very happy to assist with that goal.
The federal reserve balance sheet report for 11 Apr 2024 shows the balance sheet declined $1,4 billion over the 4 Apr balance.
QT is easing?