US-China GDP Growth since 1981

Reader Bruce Hall observes:

China’s growth rate is projected to be about twice that of the US.

While this is true, it’s useful to have context when discussing growth rates in an advanced economy (US) vs. an emerging market economy (China).

Figure 1: US real GDP y/y growth (blue), Chinese (red). Projection period indicated by light green shading. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2024 database, and author’s calculations.

In other words, US growth is pretty hot if trend growth is 2%. Chinese growth is looking pretty lackluster (projected 2024 y/y growth is not matching 5%). (Note: these growth rates are not  calculated using PPP GDP’s, they are based on  constant local currency GDP’s).

9 thoughts on “US-China GDP Growth since 1981

  1. Macroduck

    Bruce also failed to make a point. All he did was string together some sentences and sneer. True to form, but you’d think after being called out for such weak efforts over and over again, he’d just once put in an effort.

  2. pgl

    Exactly right.

    You know with both CoRev and JohnH gone, the race for the dumbest comments during 2024 comes down to Princeton Steve (who has been on a tear of late) and Bruce Hall. Brucie – keep it coming as we are cheering for you.

    1. Ithaqua

      I did not know that JohnH was gone, although I had noticed his absence. Good!

      I think I’ll have to root for Princeton Steve, just so he doesn’t feel like he’s disliked or anything…

        1. Moses Herzog

          Steve says he’s cool with having a Korean daughter-in-law, (sister-in-law??) so if he keeps her under 3 eye-rolls to the back of her head per family get together Steve says he’s “not racist”.

  3. pgl

    “when discussing growth rates in an advanced economy (US) vs. an emerging market economy (China).”

    You provided the WEO table which showed the projected US growth rate is greater than the overall advanced economies growth rate while China’s projected growth only matches the overall emerging economies growth rate.

    Hey Brucie – could you have at least looked at this table before making your latest really stupid comment? Damn!

  4. pgl

    Brucie boy is SHOCKED – yes SHOCKED – that China may have a higher growth rate than the US under Biden. But as Dr. Chinn’s chart makes clear, this was true under St. Reagan, Bush41, Clinton, Bush43, Obama, and yes even Trump. Notice a pattern here? Little Brucie boy doesn’t.

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