IMF View on US GDP Growth

More upbeat than WSJ April survey mean:

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), April WSJ survey (light blue), GDPNow (4/15) (red square), NY Fed (light green square), St. Louis Fed (blue inverted triangle), IMF April 2024 WEO (chartreuse triangles), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source BEA via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed via FRED, IMF, and author’s calculations.

Below is the entire set of forecasts from the WEO, on a q4/q4 basis. Forecasts are based on the level of exchange rates prevailing in February 2024. See Table A1 of the data appendix of the WEO for assumptions.

2024 Q4/Q4 growth is a full 0.7 ppts higher than forecasted in the October 2023 WEO, and 0.6 ppts from the January WEO update. Euro area growth is marked down 0.1 ppts relative to January WEO update. China growth prospects were not marked down relative to January, although they are down 0.3 ppts relative to half a year ago.

Source: WEO (April 2024).

From the WEO (p.xiii)

the global view can mask stark divergence across countries. The exceptional recent performance of the United States is certainly impressive and a major driver of global growth, but it reflects strong demand factors as well, including a fiscal stance that is out of
line with long-term fiscal sustainability (see April 2024 Fiscal Monitor). This raises short-term risks to the disinflation process, as well as longer-term fiscal and financial stability risks for the global economy since it risks pushing up global funding costs. Something will have to give.


7 thoughts on “IMF View on US GDP Growth

  1. Bruce Hall

    US projected growth for ’24 and ’25 is rather tame, but projections notoriously can be wrong. That being said, China’s growth rate is projected to be about twice that of the US. Given that, is Joe Biden right when he suggested that the US increase tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum from 7.5% to 22.5% are important for US competitiveness? Because it sure sounds like a previously panned idea.

    1. Macroduck

      OK, let’s wade through Brucey’s argument:

      U.S. growth projections are “rather tame*. Well that certainly avoids falsifiability, so bravo for weasel words. U.S. output is already above potential:

      Both fiscal and monetary policy are contractionary, while output is above potential, and a growth estimate that will leave GDP above potential is “rather tame”. Not strong on economic reasoning, are we, Brucey?

      China’s growth estimate is higher than that of the U.S. Yes, and…? How does thatmean the U.S. should be more exposed to Chinese imports? You’ve suggested some sort of logic, but you haven’t bothered to state that logic. Again, a bit weasely (no offense to Ron, Ginny or the twins).

      There is plenty to discuss regarding Biden’s proposed tariffs, but snide, disorganized comments aren’t a useful way to start a discussion. What else you got?

      1. pgl

        Brucie boy never heard of the Solow (1957) growth model and for all of our attempts to explain its Convergence theorem to little Brucie boy, Brucie is way too stupid to get its implications. And of course since Brucie wears that MAGA hat 24/7 his brain is shrinking by the day.

      2. pgl

        “U.S. output is already above potential”

        That is a very useful graph making your key point. Let’s give little Brucie a test – hey Brucie, how did real GDP compare to potential GDP during Trump’s last year in office?

    2. pgl

      Did you forget to read your own link once again Brucie? A pretty good argument that Biden’s trade policy is a lot smarter than Trump’s. Oh wait – given your IQ is in the single digits, the article went WAY over your little pea brain.

      1. pgl

        What Bruce Hall missed as he utterly failed to read his own link (again):

        The title to start – Biden: ‘It never occurred’ to Trump to take competitive stance on China

        And the text:

        The president also said to boost competition with China, he has revitalized partnerships in the Pacific with countries including India, Australia, South Korea and the Philippines, and he has advanced technologies that can’t be sent to China in order to protect U.S. national security. “For all this tough talk on China, it never occurred to my predecessor to do any of that,” Biden said. “The bottom line is, I want fair competition with China, not conflict, and we’re in a stronger position to win the economic competition of the 21st century against China or anyone else because we’re investing in America and American workers again,” he added. The president also argued that Trump and Republicans are wrong with their rhetoric that China is a country on the rise. “Trump simply doesn’t get it,” he said. “America is rising. We have the best economy in the world, which we do, and since I’ve come to office, our GDP is up, our trade deficit with China is down,” the president added.

    3. pgl

      “US projected growth for ’24 and ’25 is rather tame”

      Brucie – we get you are dumb even for a MAGA hat MORON but COME ON. Real GDP growth in 2023 was strong putting us beyond potential GDP. That it is projected to rise by 2% per year for the next two years is actually quite strong given the fact that potential GDP grows at about 2% per year.

      Dude – this is an economist blog. Since you know less about economics than a retarded dog, please find some other blog to pollute with your idiotic comments.

Comments are closed.