That’s a prediction from Peter Navarro, on Chairman Powell’s fate in a new Trump Administration.
From The Hill yesterday:
“My guess is that this punctilious non-economist will be gone in a hundred days one way or the other,” Navarro said in an interview with Semafor, published Tuesday.
Navarro name-checked Kevin Hassett and Tyler Goodspeed, both ex-chairs of the Council of Economic Advisers under former President Trump, as potential replacements.
Dr. Navarro is not the only person to mention the desirability of having greater presidential influence on monetary policy policy, as discussed in this post. Interestingly, today the CEA released this piece entitled “The Importance of Central Bank Independence”:
CBI solves: the time-inconsistency problem, borne of the fact that central bank policies operate over a considerably longer time frame than politically-motivated policies. A non-independent central bank can face political pressure to quickly goose the economy for political reasons, as when President Nixon pressured then Fed chair Arthur Burns to engineer a favorable economy in time for the 1972 presidential election. But monetary policy takes a longer time (often referred to as “long and variable lags”) to have its intended impact. CBI gives the Fed the insulation it needs to implement policy over longer time horizons, without reacting to near-term political pressure.
I had to look up who Tyler Goodspeed is. Try this:
https://www.hoover.org/research/testimony-dr-tyler-goodspeed-us-house-representatives-subcommittee-economic-and-consumer
Testimony Of Dr. Tyler Goodspeed Before The U.S. House Of Representatives Subcommittee On Economic And Consumer Policy
Hoover Institution fellow Tyler Goodspeed testifies before the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on Economic and Consumer Policy on “Power and Profiteering: How Certain Industries Hiked Prices, Fleeced Consumers, and Drove Inflation.”
Yea – JohnH’s hero! Oh wait – Trump wants more inflation as he is all about fleecing the rest of us!
His dissertation was on Scottish monetary policy in the 18th century? Yea – he is perfect for Trump’s FED.
Upon Daedalian Wings of Paper Money: Adam Smith, Free Banking, and the Financial Crisis of 1772
dc.contributor.advisor Ferguson, Niall Campbell Douglas
dc.contributor.advisor Friedman, Benjamin Morton
dc.contributor.author Goodspeed, Tyler Beck
https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/12274620?show=full
From 1716 to 1845, the Scottish financial system functioned with no official central bank or lender of last resort, no public (or private) monopoly on currency issuance, no legal reserve requirements, and no formal limits on bank size. In support of previous research on Scottish “free banking,” I find that this absence of legal restrictions on Scottish banking contributed to a proliferation of what Adam Smith derisively referred to as “beggarly bankers” which rendered the Scottish financial system both intensely competitive and remarkably resilient to a series of severe adverse shocks to the small developing economy. In particular, despite large speculative capital flows, a fixed exchange rate, and substantial external debt, Scotland’s highly decentralized banking sector effectively mitigated the effects of two severe balance of payments crises arising from exogenous political shocks during the Seven Years’ War. I further find that the gradual introduction of regulations and legal restrictions into Scottish banking was the result of aggressive political lobbying by the largest Scottish banks, and effectively raised barriers to entry and encouraged banking sector consolidation. I argue that while these results did not cause the severe financial crisis of 1772, they amplified the level of systemic risk in Scottish credit markets and increased the likelihood that portfolio losses in the event of an adverse economic shock would be transmitted to depositors and noteholders through disorderly bank runs, suspensions of payment, and institutional liquidation. Finally, I find that unlimited liability on the part of Scottish bank shareholders attenuated the effects of financial instability on the real economy. The financial crisis of 1772 in Scotland thus offers a valuable historical perspective on issues relating to the political economy of financial regulation, regulatory and intellectual capture, and institutional reform in banking.
That quote from the CEA on central bank independence is classic!
Now I bet Kevin Hassett is taking a victory lap after the DOW past 36000 a generation after he predicted it would!
“Powell raised rates too fast under Trump and choked off growth. To keep his job, Powell then raised rates too slowly to contain inflation under Biden.”
OK – we know this is utter BS but he said it on Kudlow’s show so it was all good!
The first one hundred days of a second and forever Trump Unified Reich will see Navarro (as Fed Chair), Pillow Guy (Commerce), the impeached DA from Texas (at DOJ), some oil industry executive that donated a lot of $ to Trump (at EPA) and Stephen Miller at Homeland Security so he can deport 20 million people and crash our economy ( BTW – no workers to harvest or process crops, build houses, care for individuals with disabilities, etc. etc.).
What I wonder – is when do red state voters demand MAGA Governors start doing responsible governance and seek to adapt and mitigate extreme weather events and climate change – rather than doing performance B.S. like banning lab grown meat (not even on the market) – when they start drowning in their own sewage? making their beachfront home uninsurable? https://www.jacksonville.com/story/special/special-sections/2019/04/13/x2018-sewer-crisis-in/5438905007/ (not maintaining your public infrastructure leads to problems especially when you live in state subject to extreme sea level rise.)
My guess is this pusillanimous former economist will continue to embarrass himself by saying whatever he thinks will please his master.
I guess I’m at a loss to figure out how lowering rates shortly after trade tariffs are enacted shows “independence” by Georgetown Jerome. I guess since Georgetown Jerome didn’t lift up the back of his skirt invitingly in the middle of the dance floor, but instead waited ’til he got out to the pickup truck in the outside parking lot, orthodox economists want to sell us Powell’s a real exemplar of modesty. Jerome, the southern evangelists are proud you showed trump your independent thinking, all for the full 1 minute walk out to the parking lot.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/business/economy/bonehead-trump-jay-powell.html
Way to go “independent” Jerome H!!!!
‘Trump Calls for Fed’s ‘Boneheads’ to Slash Interest Rates Below Zero’
Hey – yields on German government bonds fell below zero under Merkel and the ECB. Trump was jealous.
Don’t forget. Hassett is not just stupid, making a freshman error in his DOW 36,000 by counting earnings growth twice, but he is also deadly.
Remember his using an Excel cubic fit to predict that Covid deaths would go to zero by May 15 of 2020 early in the pandemic. Trump used Hassett’s chart as justification to eliminate pandemic safety restrictions.
So, yes, Hassett is willing to get people killed to curry favor with his benefactor. Just the sort of person Trump would like at the Fed.
Axios doing the dirty work for Team Trump?
Biden’s fast food problem
https://www.axios.com/2024/05/23/biden-fast-food-prices-wages-economy
“Prices are up 31%, vs. average hourly earnings up 25%.”
But I don’t ear Big Macs and I don’t care if Trump as to pay more as fatty needs to lose a lot of weight.
Biden’s fast food problem: “Prices are up 31%, vs. average hourly earnings up 25%.”
According to the BLS, CPI for fast food comprises 2.5% of household spending. You do the math.
Since the pandemic, I cook my own meals. I’m pretty good at it and the price of groceries of late has been falling.
Dr. Chinn noted how food at home prices of late have been falling.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food at Home in U.S. City Average
Gee – since January 2023, these prices have risen by a mere 1%. Now could the stupid press tell us this good news? Of course not.
Mark Redding: I am curious. Are you saying Peter Navarro is not providing his own unvalidated prediction, or that the media is misreporting his assertion, or that the media should not be reporting what Navarro is saying. I would aver that, between the two of us, I have a better idea of when Peter means what he is saying.
More trolling from you.
https://www.allsides.com/news/2024-05-21-1013/2024-presidential-election-imprisoned-ex-trump-aide-peter-navarro-predicts-fed
Imprisoned ex-Trump aide Peter Navarro predicts Fed Chair’s ouster and ‘mass deportations’ in a second presidential term
Gee Mr. Troll – it seems it was not only The Hill that reported on this.
Bad blood: US sues Live Nation after Taylor Swift Eras Tour fiasco
https://www.msn.com/en-ae/money/news/bad-blood-us-sues-live-nation-after-taylor-swift-eras-tour-fiasco/ar-BB1mVCL3?ocid=BingNewsSerp
The US on Thursday sued to break up Live Nation and Ticketmaster, after the company’s botched handling of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour in 2022 saw sky-high ticket prices and hour-long online queues. “We are not here today because Live Nation-Ticketmaster’s conduct is inconvenient or frustrating. We are here because, as we allege, that conduct is anticompetitive and illegal,” US Attorney General Merrick Garland said. “We allege that Live Nation has illegally monopolised markets across the live concert industry in the United States for far too long. It is time to break it up.” The lawsuit is the latest aggressive action taken by the Justice Department against companies accused of engaging in monopolistic behaviour, including Apple earlier this year. Twenty-nine states and the District of Columbia joined the Justice Department in the lawsuit. The lawsuit said Live Nation manages more than 400 music artists and owns or controls more than 265 music venues in North America.Live Nation controls about 60 per cent of concert promotions at big venues. Ticketmaster controls at least 80 per cent of big venues’ primary ticketing for concerts.
Sounds like monopolistic behavior to me but I hear ace lawyer Steven Kopits will defend Live Nation by accusing AG Garland of being a disguntled Swiftie.
Finally a competent President who goes after monopolies and colluding oligopolies. He is trying to save capitalism but predatory capitalists want none of it.
Can a President actually sack the head of the Fed or does he have to wait until his term is up?
Has to wait for the end of his term. It is sometimes supposed that, for the good of the institution and the individual, presidents can pry Fed chairs out of office if they want to. I think Navarro is relying on that supposition to puff himself up.
how is it most but not all yanks thanks unemployment is at 50 year highs when it is at 50 year lows. Why do they think inflation is rising when it is falling? why do they think they have been in recession for a long time.
Yet these same people think their personal situation is fine.
I am staggered by this.
Not sure if Fox News airs in your neck of the woods but think MAGA lies presented as ‘Fair and Balanced’ news. Or just check out Truth Social for giggles.