Gotland Two Years Ago, Two Hundred Years Ago, and Now

Two years ago:

That’s a photo from my hotel room, right after Sweden asked to join NATO. Just a few months after the expanded Russian invasion of the Ukraine (reminder – the invasion began in 2014).

Now. From Politico:

The Russian defense ministry announced a plan Tuesday to expand the country’s territorial waters in the Baltic Sea near its maritime border with Lithuania and Finland, sparking international concern.

“I’m sure that Putin even has both eyes on Gotland. Putin’s goal is to gain control of the Baltic Sea,” Bydén, Sweden’s supreme commander of the armed forces, told newspapers of the German editorial network RND.

Two Hundred Years ago. Now, the Ministry of Defense has taken down the announcement of a unilateral change in borders, without explanation. Any chance that Russia would ever try to seize the island? Well, just look back a couple hundred years ago:

Source: Encyclopedia Britannica, accessed 5/22/2024. Edited by author: Gotland circled in orange.

In this map of the Russian, Gotland (circled) wasn’t included. That’s because it only extends up to 1801. In 1808, Russia occupied Gotland, so the answer is “yes”.

Now, Russian forces are fully committed to the war in Ukraine. Back in 2021, CSIS evaluated a successful seaborne invasion as unlikely. That was a pre-NATO Sweden, so it would seem even less likely. However, if Russia were able to prevail in the Ukraine, thanks to Western fecklessness (or MAGA supineness), then Sweden in the face of an emboldened Russia might fare less well. Those who remember history will remember that the surrender of the Sudetenland didn’t go well.

I might note that while modern day Sweden was never part of Russia, the eastern part of then Sweden (then the Grand Duchy of Finland) was ceded to Russia and granted autonomy (1809-1917).

Update: A more recent wargame, for entire Baltic region, described here.

 

6 thoughts on “Gotland Two Years Ago, Two Hundred Years Ago, and Now

  1. pgl

    New interpretation of MAGA:

    Make America Germany Around 1938.

    OK – Stephen Colbert already said that!

    1. Moses Herzog

      One of those funny but sad deals.

      I was reading about the nation of Togo today in an old WSJ and wondering if that’s kinda where we’re going.

  2. pgl

    There are nine Indian tribes in South Dakota. The governor is Kristi Noem who has been banned from all nine of these tribes:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kristi-noem-now-banned-from-all-tribal-lands-in-south-dakota/ar-BB1mRYOI?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=3923746f4308425f96b822de8ecd84b3&ei=11

    Noem’s feud with the tribes stems from a number of reasons, including disputes between the state government and tribal leaders during the Covid-19 pandemic and her efforts to save the doomed Keystone XL pipeline project. But her most recent spat with Native American leaders relates to her accusations that tribes are allowing drug cartels from Central America to operate on their territory.

  3. Macroduck

    Not to be utterly parochial, but the U.S. is a big factor in all of this, so I have to wonder how the Moscow faction of the GOP is going to respond to Russia’s latest show of ambition.

    At a guess, the text about grabbing territory in the Baltic has been taken down to relieve the Moscow- GOP of the need to respond. At least until after the November election.

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