Instantaneous Core Inflation Drops, Core CPI Level below Consensus

From the CPI release today.

Figure 1: Year-on-Year core CPI inflation (bold black), instantaneous core CPI inflation (T=12,a=4) (tan), instantaneous core chained CPI inflation (green), m/m supercore (sky blue), instanteous core PCE deflator (red), all at annual rates. Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023). Chained CPI seasonally adjusted by author using X-13/log transform on levels. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.

Instantaneous supercore inflation is essentially flat. See Paweł Skrzypczyński for more on services core ex shelter.

Instantaneous headline CPI inflation drops (as did y/y).

Figure 2: Year-on-Year headline CPI inflation (bold black), instantaneous headline CPI inflation (T=12,a=4) (tan), instantaneous headline chained CPI inflation (green), instantaneous PCE deflator inflation (red), all at annual rates. Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023). Chained CPI seasonally adjusted by author using X-13/log transform on levels. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, and author’s calculations.

More from the CEA today.

More on grocery prices to come.



6 thoughts on “Instantaneous Core Inflation Drops, Core CPI Level below Consensus

  1. pgl

    “More on grocery prices to come.”

    Looking forward to this. Kevin Drum has a post on these prices today. Hint – Kevin does not agree with Bruce Hall that the cost of beef is exhibiting hyperinflation.

  2. pgl

    “For the 80% of the workforce that is blue-collar or non-managerial, inflation-adjusted pay rose 0.6% over the year through April, the 14th consecutive month of positive yearly growth.” – CEA

    Gee – that is not what Kudlow and the Usual Suspects wearing MAGA hats have been saying.

  3. pgl

    Ever wonder why Tesla pays Elon Musk $55 billion a year?

    Tesla has now disclosed that it is spending money to promote its shareholders vote to approve of Elon Musk’s $55 billion compensation package. Back in 2018, Tesla shareholders approved one of the biggest compensation plans of all-time: a $55 billion fully stock-based CEO compensation plan for Elon Musk.

    In January, a judge sided with lawyers representing a Tesla shareholder alleging that Tesla’s board misrepresented the compensation package when presenting it to shareholders. It’s a complicated issue, but in short, the judge found that Tesla’s board and Musk didn’t play by the rules of a public company when it presented the plan to shareholders. The judge found that Tesla had governance issues when coming up with the compensation plan and those issues were not communicated to shareholders before voting on the plan. Instead, Tesla claimed that the plan was negotiated by “independent board members” when it was found that some board directors had personal financial dealings with Musk outside of Tesla, amongst other things. The Delaware court found that this invalidated the vote, and therefore, Tesla had to rescind the compensation plan.

    Last month, Tesla told shareholders that it will ask them to vote on moving Tesla’s state of incorporation to Texas and then revote for Musk’s compensation plan without changing anything. Since then, Tesla has been working hard to get shareholders to vote for those two items. It started a website to promote it, sent countless communications to shareholders about it, and now, the company’s board is going a step further. In a new filing with the SEC, Tesla confirmed that it is now buying ad spaces to encourage shareholders to vote for these items … Tesla has to file with the SEC all the “communications” it has with shareholders regarding the vote and this time, the communications are listed as “sponsored” on Google – meaning that Tesla bought Google ads for it. The automaker even spent money on Elon Musk’s pockets by buying ads on X with the post listed as “promoted”.

  4. Moses Herzog

    I can see Bruce Hall crying into his copy of the RNC’s latest press release:

    Was trying to remember some of donald trump’s other numbers:
    The economy lost 2.9 million jobs. The unemployment rate increased by 1.6 percentage points to 6.3% (2.9 million jobs lost must have lowered inflation. GO MAGA!!!)

    The international trade deficit Trump promised to reduce went up. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services in 2020 was the highest since 2008 and increased 40.5% from 2016.

    The federal debt held by the public went up, from $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion.

    Illegal immigration increased.

    Coal production declined 26.5%, and coal-mining jobs dropped by 16.7%. Carbon emissions from energy consumption dropped 11.5%. (Readers will kindly remember all the promises donald trump made to coal miners about keeping their jobs.

    The murder rate in 2020 rose to it’s highest level since 1997.

    By the day Trump left office, 401,000 people had died from the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, (presumably Bruce hall was saved by drinking bleach) and the economic fallout was far from over.

    The number of people lacking health insurance rose by 3 million.

    In two months, March and April 2020, the U.S. economy lost a staggering 22.4 million jobs.

    As a candidate and president, Trump promised the nation’s economy would grow on an annual basis by 4% to 6%. But it never topped 3%.

    The real GDP declined 3.4% in 2020 from the previous year. It was the largest drop since 1947,

    Trump promised lower prescription drug costs. Did nothing. Thanks MAGA!!!!

    Americans had to wait for Biden to see their insulin costs capped to $35 per month.

    1. pgl

      “prices up 19.9 percent since he took office.”

      And nominal income is up by a lot more which means real income is higher. A simple point that Bruce Hall STILL has not figured out.

      But seriously – do these clowns advocate enough price deflation to get the cumulative price level back to 1/2021 levels. That’s the gold bug standard the UK used in the 1920’s which led to recessions. I guess none of these clowns has ever read the writings of Lord Keynes.

    2. pgl

      “prices up 19.9 percent since he took office.”

      And nominal GDP is up 28.4% since Biden took office. Huh – a real increase near 8.5%.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *