“Food costs doubled, tripled, quadrupled…”

That’s Mr. Trump on inflation. Here’s the data:

Figure 1: CPI for food at home (blue), chained (tan), both in logs, 2021M01=0. Chained CPI seasonally adjusted by author using X-13. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

Above graph indicates the true number (admittedly, government statistics, instead of Trumpian anecdotes) is substantially below a quadrupling.



21 thoughts on ““Food costs doubled, tripled, quadrupled…”

  1. Macroduck

    Trump lied repeatedly. Biden mumbled. Nothing new in that. The worst president in U.S. history claimed that the guy who replaced him is the worst president in U.S. history. Nothing new in that.

    Nobody here is the voter who matters. We’re all informed and have almost certainly already decided how we intend to vote. However any of us heard the debate, it’s not the way undecided voters in swing states heard the debate. I am concerned that lying works better than mumbling, but that’s just me.

    I know pundits will tell us “what it all means” and spinners will spin and blah, blah, blah. The best we can do to understand the actual effect of the debate is to watch swing-state polls, and we know polling isn’t all that accurate.

    Sweet dreams.

    1. pgl

      I have to admit that I did not listen to this farce live. I have heard Trump lied about everything. It would be nice if some blogger listed his top lies.

    2. baffling

      Biden sounded like a president. trump sounded like a charlatan selling used cars. Biden took the debate and policy seriously. trump never answered a question during the debate. trump lives in a fantasy world that will lead to the worst economy ever. remember that under trump, the economy collapsed by 33% on annualized basis, and the stock marked collapsed by 34%. unemployment reached a record high 14.7% under trump. a total disaster. and he has promised to make it worse if elected again. a vote for trump is a return to the covid years. on the other hand, Biden has led to record employment and record highs in the stock market. nobody on this site is out of a job, and is paid rather well. you want to keep that paycheck or go back to covid lockdowns? vote Biden.

      1. pgl

        “trump sounded like a charlatan selling used cars”

        I know Moses has the copyright on awarding 5 star comments but can I nominate this? Then again – a lot of used car sales people would be insulted by the comparison to Trump.

  2. Ithaqua

    A horrible debate. The Biden camp should never have agreed to a debate without fact checking after each speaker. If Trump refused, it’s a talking point. What did they think was going to happen, he would tell the truth 96% of the time?

  3. Not Trampis

    When Trump opens his mouth he lies. He even lied about what he said on TV about Charlottesville
    It was embarrassing how many times they had to ask the question again because he did not answer the question.
    biden did not land punches he should have such as the absurd replace income taxes with tariffs.

    you Yanks have a terrible choice but in the end no choice on who to vote for.

    would not happen under compulsory voting as WE hawe

  4. pgl

    Doubled means a 100% increase. Gee – I thought when Trump said we had 60% food price increases – that was bad enough. He does tend to multiply things by 3 after all. Apartment size – that thing Stormy Daniels mentioned etc. But doubled? Maybe Bruce Hall did the arithmetic for him.

    1. pgl

      Same person who also said:

      “We would be able to wipe out his debt, we’d be able to help make sure that all those things we need to do, childcare, eldercare, making sure that we continue to strengthen our healthcare system, making sure that we are able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I have been able to do with the Covid – excuse me, dealing with everything we have to do with,”

      But leave it to a disgusting little troll like you to take things out of context.

  5. pgl

    That roll call list of Trump’s lies had some real whoppers. Maybe our host could do a post on what Trump said on the trade deficit with China but this one had me on the floor laughing at Trump’s utter stupidity:

    ‘Trump falsely alleging that Biden will “wipe out” Social Security due to the influx of people at the border.’

    Almost every analysis I have ever seen notes that immigration increases the inflow of Social Security taxes more than it increases benefits paid out. Then again Trump is such a flaming racist maybe he wants to ban immigrants from getting jobs.

    1. pgl

      ‘While talking about international trade, Trump falsely claimed that the U.S. currently has “the largest deficit with China.” In 2023, the trade deficit in goods and services with China was the lowest it has been since 2009.’

      United States goods trade deficit with China from 2013 to 2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)

      Gee Trump missed an opportunity to brag about how yuuuuge his trade deficit was in 2018! MAGA!

  6. pgl

    Trump’s Biggest Debate Lies the Moderators Let Slide


    ‘It’s typically the job of the moderators to call out a candidate when they say something demonstrably false, but CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash did no such thing. The duo didn’t even attempt to fact-check the former president, allowing him to freely spew misinformation to tens of millions of viewers.’

    A good list with excellent rebuttals of Trump’s lies. Tapper and Bash should resign from the press corp today.

  7. Not Trampis

    Here is an add that might help the democrats since they are cravening at present
    take just two of the lies trump said yesterday. Say Charlottesville and Pelosi. Show the video for evidence and then finish saying the USA needs a commander in chief not a liar in chief. Change the add say every two weeks from lies either in the great debate ( which was neither great grate yes nor a debate) and also from his rallies.

        1. pgl

          Did they cut you off from Youtube? The Lincoln Project ads are available for free. Learn to use the internet. DUH!

          1. Not Trampis

            you are sounding very MAGA.
            I only watch youtube when watching music. Allman brothers to Crosby Stills , Nash and Young.
            I do not go to youtube to watch political ads of other nations. Few people do.

  8. James

    Speaking of inflation – The Fed’s preferred measure – “The May PCE price index increased 2.6 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 2.7 percent YoY in April, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022.” https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/personal-income-increased-05-in-may.html and “CPI Shelter was up 5.4% year-over-year in May, down from 5.5% in April, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.” and “PCE Price Index: 2.4% (3 month annualized) – Core PCE Prices: 2.7% – Core minus Housing: 2.2%” https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/pce-measure-of-shelter-slows-to-55-yoy.html
    Hey Federal Reserve – I can haz rate cut now?
    BTW – the Biden admin has practiced responsible governance and produced lowest unemployment rate for months and a healthy growing economy – carried us through one of the largest pandemics in history and invested in renewable energy and infrastructure to help us meet our emissions promise.
    Also – I reject Trump dark vision of the United States of rampant crime in big cities (not true) and obsession with burning more fossil fuels – I think we are on the edge of an energy rich future – if we reject Trumpism once again https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/06/20/the-exponential-growth-of-solar-power-will-change-the-world

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