One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Stable

With Michigan final June survey out, we have this picture:

Figure 1: Year-on-year actual CPI inflation (bold black), and expected inflation from University of Michigan (red), NY Fed (light green), Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), Coibion-Gorodnichenko SoFIE mean (sky blue squares), and unit cost growth rate (chartreuse), all in %. Source: BLS, U.Michigan via FRED, Philadelphia FedAtlanta FedCleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.

With CPI inflation running about 0.45 ppts faster than PCE inflation over the 1986-2024 period, we are close to the 2% PCE inflation target, at least insofar as the SPF is concerned, perhaps half a ppt from the Michigan survey (which historically has been upwardly biased in terms of forecast errors). Note that unit cost expectations (Atlanta Fed) do not suggest imminent cost push pressures.


9 thoughts on “One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Stable

  1. pgl

    I have to wonder how high this Michigan survey expectations will be next time given the assertion from the Orange Jesus that food prices have risen by 300%.

  2. Macroduck

    Off topic – democracy under attack, just like Joe said:

    I think such efforts reflect an impressive understanding of cultural differences; many immigrants come from countries where voter intimidation is routine, and GOP operatives are playing on that familiarity to suppress voter turn-out.

    Tennessee. Like Mississippi, but with more hills.

    1. Anonymous

      Chesire Cat/Alice:

      “I am not crazy; my reality is just different from yours.”

      cnn’s reality!

      1. pgl

        Make like that cheshire cat and disappear since you insist on being northing more than a worthless troll.

  3. pgl

    Is Doug Burgum out of the running for VP nominee after this?

    Burgum defends Trump lies during debate: ‘Not news’

    North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R), rumored to be on former President Trump’s VP shortlist, defended the presumptive GOP nominee against criticism over the numerous falsehoods he told on the debate stage on Thursday. In an interview Sunday on NBC News’s “Meet the Press,” Burgum called the story “manufactured,” noting Trump has said publicly in the past everything he said Thursday. “I think that the whole manufactured thing this morning of that Donald Trump has said something that he hasn’t said before – I mean, everything that he said on Thursday night, he’s been saying before. I mean, so this is not news,” Burgum said. Burgum was responding to a question on whether Trump should stop repeating false information, as he did on the debate stage on Thursday.”

    That’s right Dougie boy – Trump has been lying about everything for years. The Tucker Carlson defense!

    1. Ivan

      “The fact that my client murdered this man is not news – he murdered someone else last year”.

      Logic is not the their strong suit. I guess he is running hard for Vice President and the job description is “ass kisser in chief”. Understanding the difference between “new” and “news” would be a little to much to expect.

      Trump support is a mixture of xenophobic panic attacks and a hissy fit against those who have been successful in modern society. His voters lie to themselves every day (its all someone else’s fault!), so their cut leader lying is not the big a deal.

  4. joseph

    So the Supreme Court has just ruled that the President has immunity to sleep in a public place?

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