From Wells Fargo today, using Oxford Economics macro model, simulating out the effects of Trump’s trade policies (as stated thus far). Addendum to yesterday’s post “Vote Trump for Higher Inflation, Bigger Deficits, Higher Interest Rates”.
Source: Wells Fargo Economics.
Source: Wells Fargo Economics.
Negative y/y GDP growth if retaliation against US trade policies. Who believes no retaliation will be forthcoming?
Couldn’t agree more Sadly, no one who matters to the outcome of the election will ever hear this. Swing voters are not big consumers of hard news, and our news outlets mostly aren’t interested in carrying hard news. Elections are horse races. Fear is more popular than facts.
Abortion rights are emotional. Schools are emotional. Guns are emotional. Jobs are emotional – and half of voters think unemployment is high. Prices are emotional – erroneously called “inflation”, but don’t expect to win votes by explaining the difference. Being nasty is emotional – which party holds itself together with nastiness?
Democrats need to suspend their circular firing squad long enough to engage undecided voters in swing states on emotional issues. That’s how it’s done.
How can a party full of educated people be so very stupid?
I remember arguing with Professor Rosser over the fact that Biden was showing strong signs of early dementia, (same as Pelosi, who is now turning a machete on her own dementia ward of the hospital) and how at least with Bernie Sanders we’d have a guy who could hold his own in debates and might even get his metaphorical Rambo bowie knife out. So much for intelligent methods…….. “I killed Covah….uh, uh, uh I killed Medicare” Thanks Tom Anderson.
https://beavisandbutthead.fandom.com/wiki/Tom_Anderson
Great job lefty voters.. And like Rosser informed us, Harris really delivered that Black vote.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/how-trump-boosted-his-latino-and-black-supportby-ignoring-party-advice-78dda853
Biden beat trump once already. and Clinton would have beaten trump if sanders supporters had not abandoned her in that election. trump never should have been elected in the first place. I believe Bernie is unqualified to be potus. better than trump, but not qualified to hold such a position. Bernie won that battle against Clinton, but lost the war to trump. and we are all paying that price today.
Sanders is still supporting Biden. I bet he will end up supporting Harris.
Team Trump won’t say this but they are terrified she will head the ticket. Look Hillary Clinton let herself get bullied by Trump. Harris will not make that mistake.
sanders needs to enthusiastically support whoever may replace Biden, lest he repeats his mistake of putting trump back into office.
“Stagflation from Higher Tariffs: 1970s Redux?”
The simulations assume both raise tariffs – with Trump raising them more. What’s missing here? Oh yea the damage from deporting 20 million workers.
Navarro, Joe Arpolo, and even Rudy G. got to talk last night. And tonight – Donald Trump. So why are they not calling this the Felon National Convention.
From Trump’s June 25 Bloomberg interview:
“I think manufacturing is a big deal, and everybody that runs for office says you’ll never manufacture again. We have currency problems, as you know.”
https://archive.ph/MfrmC
Manufacturing construction spending:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLMFGCONS
You have to be a serious student of economics to see what’s happening in the chart, but spending on construction of manufacturing facilities has tripled since Biden’s inauguration. Biden has never, ever said the U.S. will “never manufacture again.”
Trump could have taken the same steps that Biden did. Could have, but didn’t. Just want to point this out to commenters who claim Biden is light on accomplishments.
That is a 3-fold explosion in manufacturing construction spending after Biden began competent industrial policies. Trump is just flat. Competence matters.
Nominal spending now is actually 3.1594 times higher than it was as of Dec. 2020. But wait, prices measured by the PCE index has risen by 16.45%.
Yea you knew I’d do that inflation adjusted thing. OK real spending now is 2.713 times higher.
Compare that to the Trump years where nominal spending did not rise at all. And yes – we had some inflation under the Orange Jesus so inflation adjusted spending fell. Now I ask you – how effing incompetent was Trump?
Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States
As I read this graph, it is nominal spending. Which is important because under Trump nominal spending was flat. Which means in real terms manufacturing construction spending FELL. Way to go Donald!
https://www.npr.org/2024/07/18/791345695/bob-newhart-dead
Unique style of humor. Never liked his TV shows but his old comedy records were quite good.
I agree. Newhart was a funny comedian which is highly unusual for a yank.
I have to say Trump is a protectionist which is bad for the economy but so is Biden only less so.
He didn’t take down the tariffs on China, I suspect for political reasons. But the economy was still doing well and stronger than it was under trump’s “Make American Drink Bleach” campaign.
Since America probably has the highest number of famous Jewish comedians, I would say America probably has the best comedy, certainly in terms of volume and I would argue quality as well. But the Brits are also well known for their comedy.
Honorable mention Zhao Benshan
I was never the biggest fan but he did indeed have his style of humor was unique.
Not sure why they would even show Trump without retaliation. When is the last time a country did big tariffs without facing retaliation?
“Not sure why they would even show Trump without retaliation.”
I think they were trying to emulate Kevin Hassett and Lawrence Kudlow. Neither of which ever read Joan Robinson’s Beggar Thy Neighbor.
As expected, Peter Navarro went on a long grievance spiel saying “I went to prison so that you won’t have to.” He went to jail for ignoring a subpoena to testify before Congress. How does that relate to the common person?
He also claimed that he went to jail for refusing to break the law, which is exactly backwards because he was convicted by a jury of actually breaking the law. And the law he claimed to refuse to break was “Presidential privilege”, which his buddy the President declined to grant him, leaving him with no defense. Yet after being hung out to dry by Trump, he still pledges fealty to his Dear Leader. The cult is powerful.
He then argued that Republicans need control of all three branches — the executive, legislative and judicial — to prevent what happened to him. He neglected to mention that it was the right wing controlled Supreme Court that upheld his conviction and sentence.
Most bizarrely of all, he claimed to have been persecuted (sic) by Special Counsel Jack Smith, just like Trump. Which is just batsh*t insane. The Navarro case had nothing to do with the Special Counsel. He was prosecuted by a regular DC district attorney under regular rules. It had nothing to do with Jack Smith
Is it possible that Navarro has dementia and really doesn’t remember who prosecuted him or is he flat out lying to engender some sort of persecution affinity with Trump and thinks that just mentioning the name Jack Smith will invoke sympathy from the ignorant rubes. Perhaps Menzie Chinn could enlighten us.
You are 100% correct. But remember the who point of the Felon National Conference is to tell more lies than the other speakers.
the trump Republican Party has detached itself from the critical rules of reality. this has been going on for a while, since “alternative facts” entered the lexicon. just make sh!t up to defend your position. thou shalt not lie is not a problem with the concept of alternative facts, and full belief in gaslighting.
It was clear on the very first day of the Trump administration in January 2017 that something very strange had occurred in the country. Trump and his press secretary Kellyanne Conway insisted on “alternative facts” that Trump had a larger audience at his inaugural than Obama, a lie that everyone could see with their own two eyes. Yet nearly half of Americans were able to deny what they could literally see with their own two eyes in fealty to their cult leader. Even Rick Stryker who fancies himself an intelligent person fell in line with the lie. It was a sobering event.
So it should be no surprise that millions of Americans who could deny their own two eyes would be willing to believe a lie about election results. It is a perilous time for the country when so many Americans can live in an alternate reality.
https://www.thoughtco.com/donald-trumps-press-secretaries-4125913
‘Trump and his press secretary Kellyanne Conway insisted on “alternative facts”.’
Note she is not on this list. I admit she worked for Trump and lied repeatedly. I get she is a bimbo as were most of those press secretaries. But Kelly Anne was never Trump’s official press secretary.
‘Other Spokespeople
Several other key aides serve as spokespeople for the president. They include Kellyanne Conway, who served as Trump’s campaign manager and became a senior adviser to the president after he took office. Former White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus also spoke on behalf of the president in his role as a top adviser. Larry Kudlow, the director of Trump’s National Economic Council, often speaks on economic issues, and Mercedes Schlapp, White House director of strategic communications, also speaks to the press on the president’s behalf.’
Now Kudlow is a raging bimbo. He is certainly not an economist even if he plays one on the TV. No – he is more like a cheerleader with rather stained panties.
I have often thought of using that ignorance against the MAGA cult.
“Did you know that the Biden crime family owns a hotel in downtown Washington DC making money every time someone books a room there. And Biden is asking all visiting foreign government representatives where they are staying – and praising them for the choice if they stay in his hotel. There is even one country that Biden has been particularly friendly towards that has rented a whole floor on that hotel permanently. That is just not right”
If they agree it is corrupt – then reveal it was done by the Don’s family – not Biden’s.
I cannot believe you will have a candidate who has been found guilty of fraud as his company was, been found guilty of sexuaL assault of a female which the judge said was rape and then 34 felony counts where he was hiding he had sex with a porn star.
would not occur in Australia. As an evangelical the sickest thing to me is a lot of people who claim to be evangelicals support although I note few of them go to church regularly showing they are anything but evangelical
The tariffs are supposed to help bring manufacturing jobs back to the US and will probably will do a little of that in the short term. But the manufacturing side of the job market is long gone. Products of the future will be made by robots.
The problem has been that we are not fighting the monopoly powers, so Wall Street gets to set prices way above material and labor cost (regardless of what labor costs (US labor high, 3’rd world labor medium, Robot labor minimal). So we are not harvesting the benefits of lower production cost – Wall Street is.
If you put up import restrictions you just give Wall Street more monopoly power. You don’t give labor any more pricing power – robots don’t unionize. Robots are getting cheeper and the US labor force will be competing against (and losing to) robots instead of Chinese slave labor. There is a reason Wall Street is all in favor of import taxes – China is refusing to play monopoly.
“If you put up import restrictions you just give Wall Street more monopoly power.”
Take washer and dryers. Allowing Maytag and Whirlpool to merge was bad enough. But then Trump put up huge tariffs on imports of these products from Asia. The only people who benefitted were Navarro and Wilbur Ross as shareholders in Whirlpool. MAGA!