From DWD today:
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (bold blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark series (pink), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (gray), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: DWD, Philadelphia Fed, WI DoR.
Figure 2: Wisconsin civilian employment (black), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (red), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: DWD, WI DoR.
On the CES employment count (more reliable than the household CPS count, at the state level), employment is beating the June DoR forecast.
Below, I show the latest data on Wisconsin macro aggregates.
Figure 3: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real wages and salaries deflated by national chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green), all in logs 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2], and author’s calculations.
Hence, by most counts, Wisconsin’s economy is at the aggregate level doing well. However, recent journalistic accounts have focused on a sour mood (Niquette/Bloomberg):
…a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll this month found 62% of Wisconsin voters think the state’s economy is on the wrong track, and 72% think the US economy is headed in the wrong direction.
See also Politico. On the other hand, the modal response on the state of the economy seems to be ranked as “good”. From a Marquette Law School poll, June 12-20:
Figure 4: Percent of likely voter respondents to the question “How would you describe the state of Wisconsin’s economy these days?” Source: Marquette Law School Poll.
There is a partisan divide on this point, though.
Figure 5: Percent of likely voter respondents to the question “How would you describe the state of Wisconsin’s economy these days?”, by party affiliation. Source: Marquette Law School Poll.
Addendum, 4pm Pacific:
Real wages continued to rise through May.
Figure 6: Wisconsin Average hourly wages for all workers, in 2017M12$ (blue). Deflated by East North Central CPI, seasonally adjusted by author using X-13. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER, author’s calculations.
Since we’ve recently rehashed the topic of pandemics and politics in comments, here’s a clear-eyed look at the prospect of bird flu evolving to be transmissible between humans specifically in the United States:.
https://canadahealthwatch.ca/2024/07/17/an-h5n1-pandemic-is-inevitable-heres-why
The author is Canadian, and he notes that their are no recorded cases of bird flu among Canadian cattle. His explanation for the absence of bird flu in Canada’s dairy herd, when cases are becoming more frequent in the U.S., is that Canada doesn’t allow dairy farmers to feed bird droppings to cattle.
Seems the “litter” from poultry farms – a mixture of droppings, bedding, feathers, small corpses and feed – is a common, low-cost supplement to cattle feed. Lots of protein, don’t ya know. Common in the U.S., that is, but not in Canada the EU or UK.
Poultry litter is also disposed of in ways which contaminate waterways. So while feeding chicken dropping to cattle is probably the reason U.S. dairy cattle now have bird flu, waterways contaminated with poultry droppings likely exposes other species, including humans, to bird flu. More exposure means more opportunities for the virus to learn to infect other species, including humans, and so to be transmitted from human to human.
All of which is to say that poultry and meat producers are systematically increasing the likelihood that bird flu will become a human epidemic. Cattle-feeding practices could make the U.S. the source of a human epidemic of bird flu.
By the way, the FDA banned the feeding of poultry litter to cattle in 2004 to help prevent the spread of Mad Cow Disease. It seems that poultry are fed ground up cow parts, and since feed ends up in litter, cows could end up eating cows, which risks spreading BSE.
Populist backlash and climate change:
https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/2024/populist-opposition-threatening-progress-climate-change?utm_source=update-newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=piie-insider
No surprises here. The cost of transition away from fossil fuels will cause resentment. Resentment invites populist reaction against policies to reduce climate change. In fact, what the authors suggest can happen is on clear display among Republicans, and sometimes in comments here.
SCMP on WTO on Chinese compliance with trade rules:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3270837/wto-says-china-backsliding-key-reforms-and-lacks-transparency-subsidies
The gist is that China, which never came close to meeting WTO commitments, is backsliding.
Completely off topic, again – the U.S. housing construction bottleneck:
Housing completions are climbing:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1qlFG
That has brought units under construction down from the crazy level of last spring and summer:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1qlFL
Multi-units are still piled up, but if the completion date remains high, units under construction will continue to fall, bringing more supply into the market.
Perhaps as a result of increased supply, median price of new homes sold has stabilized below last year’s highs:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1qlFQ
Whatever has changed to get housing construction in better shape is having good effects.
As a Wisconsinite – I call this the “Branded Soda vs Store Brand Soda Price/phenomenon” – but, but food price inflation is terrible! – my 2L bottle of branded soda costs $2.98! and before Biden it was $2! When I point out that store-brand soda is $1.39 – they say it doesn’t taste the same – By the way – I notice that Wal Mart is now at $1.98 for branded soda https://www.walmart.com/ip/Coca-Cola-Soda-Pop-2-Liters-Bottle/16618684 and the 2L of Wal Mart brand soda is now back at $1.
Impressions of food price inflation tends to linger – also Fox News tells me everyday that the economy was somehow great under Trump – And under Trump – the GOP will have mass deportations of all the workers stocking your groceries to drive up food prices again.
Sam’s Cola is only $1 a bottle? Not that I drink anything other than Dr. Pepper.
“the GOP will have mass deportations of all the workers stocking your groceries to drive up food prices again.”
My local Safeway has a lot of elderly white workers but there is one young Asian woman who’s very cute. I hope she does not get deported.
That is the problem. For anybody who want “the economy” to be bad when Biden is in Charge and fantastic when Trump is in charge there is always a product or economic parameter they can cherry-pick to get support for their narrative. I remember buying a 40″ flat screen TV about 20 years ago for the price of $2000. Gasoline prices at $5 per gallon was all Hanity could talk about – now he never talks about gas prices.