“Where’s the Slowdown”

Torsten Slok (Apollo) asks that question today. He summarizes:

Current status as of Saturday July 20:
– Daily data shows restaurant bookings remain strong
– Daily data shows TSA air travel remains strong
– The Fed’s weekly GDP estimate is 2.2%
– Atlanta Fed GDPNow is 2.7% and rising
– Weekly same-store retail sales are strong
– Jobless claims are modestly higher, perhaps because of auto plant shutdowns and Hurricane Beryl
– Weekly data for hotel occupancy rates are strong, daily rates are strong, and RevPAR is strong
– Weekly data for bank lending to consumers and firms show loan growth is accelerating
– Weekly data for bankruptcy filings are trending down
– Weekly credit and debit card data show rising loan growth
– Weekly data for global jet fuel demand is rising
– Weekly data for Broadway show attendance is normal
– Weekly data for box office grosses is higher than normal
– Weekly data shows NYC mobility indicators are normal

 

 

 

33 thoughts on ““Where’s the Slowdown”

  1. pgl

    Ah but what about VMI which is our resident clown’s favorite indicator of a recession – or suppression I guess. Oh wait, it is up too!

  2. New Deal democrat

    Hmmmmm…

    He doesn’t link to his data sources, which is problematic. Many of them are components of the Weekly Economic Zinder, and are easy to locate.

    But one which is not part of the WEI is bankruptcy filings.

    The one publicly available source I am aware of:
    Torsten Slok

    shows a graph that shows that YoY filings have been higher almost all year. Their conclusion for the most recent week is “ Bankruptcy filings continue their upward trajectory… The current trajectory of bankruptcy filings is on a steep climb.”

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      New Deal Democrat: The graphs and links are in the Chartbook which came with the email… I don’t think I can post the entire Chartbook w/o copyright infringement.

  3. baffling

    if the fed drops rates in the next meeting, there will be no recession before the election. and we welcome President Harris to office. it is very much time for the fed to start loosening monetary policy and drop rates. NOW.

    1. Ithaqua

      We’ve had our disagreements in the past, but you and I are on the same page here. You have said the true word. Next week (when the next Fed meeting is) I hope…

      1. baffling

        the person trump fears the most run now is Powell. notice how he has not been berating the fed chief? he stopped threatening his job? because it is very clear that if Powell thinks his job is lost if trump wins, a very easy solution is to simply drop rates now, move Harris into office and leave office under his own terms. trump now realizes his threats may be costly. it has been a mistake to bully Powell.

    1. Moses Herzog

      I’m drinkign now, but I don’t think I got the two of you’s disagrrement here. There’s no sarcacsm here, What did I miss you guys were arguing about?? I lost my MAD magazine in my MOm’s wheelchair at the hospital on our way back that they couldn’t even take her blood test anyway, (some tech problem with “the blood lab”) Damn man, What did I do upset the Gods today??

      1. Macroduck

        Could be the “blue screen” problem. Delta still has it, so some health care facilities may also still have it.

        1. Moses Herzog

          Hahaha!!! I’m still slawshed right now. No offense will be taken. It feels like you made some joke on me, Oh man,

          You mean the colors on the different charts?? Today is one of “those days” Macroduck, Seem lost all day, but two beer cans left and a bottle.

        2. Moses Herzog

          I’m slow (usually slow AND when drinking). You meant the computer/software problem effected the blood tests??? WOW, It didn’t even dawn on me what you meant. Not a bad theory. 25%–33% probability?? I don’t know—not a bad theory either way Macroduck.

          1. baffling

            I hear a dose of ivermectin downed with a shot of chlorine bleach is a good hangover remedy.

          2. Moses Herzog

            Heh, funny guy, I agree with your sentiments~~~but~~

            when I was competely slawshed, I might even follow that advice, be careful friend. got half a bottle left here~~~~ Depression hit me at the 1/2 glass point my brother Be nice

          3. baffling

            hang in there big guy. at least nobody shot off your ear! how embarrassing would that be?!

  4. pgl

    AFL-CIO endorses Harris. So did the teacher’s union. Next up UAW. The Biden legacy continues!

    BTW – that Zoom call with Harris got 55 thousand ladies on it. I didn’t realize Zoom could handle that!

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ pgl
      Remember when Reagan won?? on top of CIA Casey’s promise 2 seconds after?? be realistic friend. America is largely illiterate now. Just be realistic, that’s all, In my dreams you are right, but this is not my dream.

      Set your mind for very tough times ahead/

  5. pgl

    George Conway mocks ex-wife Kellyanne’s TV attack on Kamala
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/george-conway-mocks-ex-wife-kellyanne-s-tv-attack-on-kamala/ar-BB1qqVMr?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ca658046a0364dabb6928d6d0e687238&ei=11

    Here’s the ugly racist witch with a b that Bruce Hall wants to date:

    ‘She does not speak well. She does not work hard. She doesn’t inspire anyone. She should not be the standard-bearer for the party.’

    OK now. Here’s the guy who divorced this piece of trash:

    ‘Not everyone can express themselves as eloquently and with such exquisite turns of phrase as Donald J Trump.’

    1. Ithaqua

      Yeah, that was a total own. Amazing they stayed together as long as they did, I suspect they did it for the daughter.

      1. baffling

        her net worth increased quite a bit. and that will get split after the divorce. probably worth the wait as well.

      2. pgl

        I think they had four kids. Catch this trash:

        “On one side was my marriage and my husband. On the other was my job and my boss,” Kellyanne wrote. “George was mixing the two of them in a highly combustible manner. I was able to keep these things separate and in perspective. George should have, too, but it seemed the flood of reaction and attention he was receiving was magnetic and irresistible.”

        Let’s see – she has the right to help a traitor trash the Constitution. But how dare hubby stand up for what is right? George is better off without this ugly lying racist b.

  6. Macroduck

    We are probably going to see a hefty distortion in airline and perhaps hotel bookings for a brief period due to the Crowdstrike mess. As a coincident indicator, that’s fine, but any reading of sentiment or trend from that brief glitch would be a mistake.

    Like jobless claims, bankruptcies are low, but picking up. I’ve seen reporting suggesting interest rates are to blame. That’s logical, but I’m not sure there’s a basis in data for the claim. The same reporting claimed that Chapter11 filings (reorganization) were up more than chapter 7 (liquidation). In percentage terms, y/y for the most recent week, as shown in NDD’s link, that’s true. In absolute numbers, not. If debt is the problem, rather than other expenses or lack of demand, then Chapter 11 does the trick.

    1. Moses Herzog

      I saw a solid WSJ story I wanted to share with you MAcroduck and Menxie also. Nothing you hadn’t seen before, but still fascinating on a human nature perspective, Don’t let me forget to put it up here OK??

      1. Moses Herzog

        Here’s hoping my friend MD and others can get around the WSJ paywall here. Never let it be said that Moses Herzog doesn’t try to keep his promises, especially the small, frivolous, more easily kept promises:
        https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/investors-apartments-syndicates-sumrok-f77c8f5c

        There was also a very fascinating and recently published story in WSJ on China’s EV car offerings and market share advances, but I’m too lazy to hunt it down. Short hand synopsis: “Be careful Elon Musk, China coming for your skin”.

  7. James

    Menzie – I occasionally like to check in on the state of the Russian economy – because WI Senator “Russian Ron” Johnson is always touting how great his criminal buddy Vladimir “Bomber of Children’s Hospitals” Putin is doing (Trump has called Putin a genius and Vance is a great fan as well). The official inflation rate is 8.61% (difficult to tell what actual inflation rate is – because statisticians there can be sent to the front – if you tally figures incorrectly) – and interest rates are being hiked to 18%.
    But – wait there’s more! – apparently no other trading partner wants the ruble – so acquire Chinese yuan if you want to buy some imports – could the ruble serve as an example of a dead currency? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-embrace-chinese-yuan-stalls-063840781.html
    But – hold on Tucker Carlson and the MAGAs – before you tout how great Putin is doing – think about the citizens of Russia protesting because they have not had electricity for weeks https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/residents-protest-over-power-cuts-in-southern-russian-city/ar-BB1qk1pD (these same citizens are being told to stock up on firewood – not having electricity in Russian summer is uncomfortable – not having heat in Russian winter is life or death. Also – spending up to 30% of your GDP on artillery shells and not maintaining public utilities can have an impact on their operation.)
    If you are a Russian male between 20 and 60 and don’t like it or complain about Putin – you can go the front – where causalities are approaching 600,000 – and hope you end up in the official death tally – so your spouse can collect your back pay –

    1. Ivan

      Putin signaled “war for the next 10 years” and NATO signaled back “OK, war for the next 10 years” – calling the bluff. Ukraine is way ahead of Russia in the transition to drone wars and are training soldiers to fly multiple drones at the same time (to deal with its personal shortage). Ukraine is far ahead on drone swarms and counter drone measures. They have been using it to systematically hit military targets way behind the front including fuel supplies. Russia is stuck in WW1 strategies. They fail to understand that information about how deadly it is to sign up for military service, cannot be hidden that long. Incentives to sign a contract keep going up and those who were conscripted at the regular cycle for a year of training just after the start have now been in for over 2 years and have been told they will not be free until after the war is over.

      1. baffling

        eventually you run out of prisoners to send to the front line. but in Russia, soldiers are cheaper than drones. which Russia cannot build on its own.

  8. Bruce Hall

    Just some other perspectives:

    Unexpected bad news for inflation: Wholesale prices rose in June
    https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/12/economy/us-producer-price-index-inflation-june/index.html

    I.M.F. Sees Signs of Cooling in U.S. Economy
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/16/business/imf-world-economic-outlook-report.html

    Economic Forecast for the US Economy
    https://www.conference-board.org/research/us-forecast

    “Prediction,” goes an old Danish proverb, “is hazardous, especially about the future.”

    But I’ll hazard a prediction that this will continue its vigorous growth.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN/

    1. pgl

      “GDP growth should pick up later in 2024 as inflation subsides and the Fed first signals and then actually cuts interest rates. In 2025, 2-percent inflation and somewhat lower interest rates should levitate real GDP growth to its potential near 2 percent.”

      I guess you forgot to read your own links again. You do know Kelly Anne Conway is on the rag and this is going to make her very angry at you.

    2. pgl

      “I’ll hazard a prediction that this will continue its vigorous growth.”

      Little Mr. Smarty Pants has decided to forecast out the budgetary implications of Project 2025. Good little boy Brucie – now enjoy your bone!

    3. pgl

      Yea PPI inflation after being very low for a while had an uptick. I guess Bruce Hall was too stupid to read that his own link had CPI falling. Or Dr. Chinn’s excellent post on this topic.

      You know – I owe JD Vance an apology. I suggested Vance was the dumbest rock on the planet. Not even close as Bruce Hall holds that honor in spades!

  9. pgl

    “The I.M.F.’s most recent World Economic Outlook report”

    My God – Bruce Hall is Mr. Magoo in spades. Dr. Chinn already posted on this report. But did Bruce Hall bother to read the post? No – this worthless MAGA moron actually thinks he gave us the news wasting everyone’s time with his stupid childish comments.

    Come Brucey – finish your work for Trump-Vance and start explaining to your moronic bosses what Project 2025 proposes.

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