From the just-released Summer WMC Wisconsin Employer Survey:
“There is no question that the mix of higher costs and higher interest rates are making employers rethink investment and hiring plans,” added Bauer. “While we may not enter into a typically defined recession, this data shows that the economy may stagnate at least through the end of the year.”
Well, the views on the Wisconsin economy are virtually unchanged since the winter survey:
Source: WMC. Notes: n=180, 182, for Winter and Summer, respectively. Survey respondents are members of WMC.
What do objective indicators show about the Wisconsin economy in the 6 months following the Winter survey (released January 17th) (shaded lilac in Figure 1 below)?
Figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real wages and salaries deflated by national chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green), all in logs 2021M11=0. Lilac shading denotes the 6 months after the WMC Winter survey. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2], and author’s calculations.
Nonfarm payroll employment, as well as real wages and salaries, and the coincident index, all rose during the period in question. Civilian employment, which is not particularly well measured at the state level, alone was flat. Hence, cognitive dissonance part 1.
Despite the lackluster growth prospects seen by the WMC membership, what do firms think they will be doing in terms of employment? Surprisingly, they seem to see their workforces increasing! Hence, my cognitive dissonance, part 2.
Source: WMC. Notes: n=180, 182, for Winter and Summer, respectively. Survey respondents are members of WMC.
One interesting aspect of the Summer 2024 report is that the time series graph indicating the proportion of respondents who rated the Wisconsin economy, included in the Winter 2024 report, was omitted. Presumably, this was because the graph did not fit the WMC narrative. In order to complete the picture, I add in an edited version of the Winter 2024 graph.
Note: Light blue large circle is Summer 2024 observation. Source: WMC, Wisconsin Employer Survey (January 2024), and edits by author using July 2024 survey.
Menzie, you are a very strange man. Do you actually expect facts to fit rhetoric?? Have I taught you nothing all these long years?? You, you, you…….. dirty Santa Cruz liberal.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/jd-vance-over-text-crude-dismissive-and-friendly-with-the-far-right-fringe/ar-AA1onWn8?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=bb741557107a463aadbe355a732bd38c&ei=14
‘The day after JD Vance was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2022, he received a congratulatory text from Charles Johnson, a blogger and entrepreneur who has zealously promoted right-wing conspiracy theories.’
Read the whole thing as Charles Johnson is another MAGA nutjob. A view into who JD really is.
Hmmm – FRED data indicates that PPI for all industries peaked about two years ago and has been slowly declining since – just like consumer prices https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCUOMFGOMFG
In a side note – I find it interesting that the Governor of Minnesota Walz has been chosen as VP candidate by Harris. To me – he represents the progressive policies – paid family and medical leave, abortion access, free college tuition, child tax credit – that Wisconsin could have had – if we didn’t go down the regressive anti-labor and anti family leave policies forced on us by proto-MAGA Walker and the WMC (Ref: In 1989, WMC helped block passage of Wisconsin’s family leave act on behalf of their members – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin_Manufacturers_%26_Commerce )
Minnesota has consistently outranked Wisconsin economically since 2010 with the advent of Walker and regressive rule by the WIGOP – and Minn elected Democrat Mark Dayton – https://captimes.com/opinion/dave-zweifel/opinion-minnesota-is-proof-that-wisconsin-republicans-are-dead-wrong/article_6f0a3068-700c-11ed-bc58-3bfcefca0be8.html
Off topic – good news on gun control:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/06/maryland-assault-weapons-ban-upheld-00172993
The ban in question has been around since 2017, and is still in place. That makes this a viable model law for other states. And for Congress.
NY has an assault gun ban as well.
Estimated about .002 of the weapons turned in, and no local police care to take on their neighbors.
The above is observed.
First sentence is true but that second sentence is dishonest and downright disgusting. But hey – that is all you are good for.
New Marist poll:
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2024-presidential-contest-august-2024/
The poll has Harris at 51%, Trump ar 48%, undecided at 2%. While rounding can be tricky, it ain’t over till it’s over, and electoral votes are what decide the winner, the math says Trump could pick up every undecided vote and still lose the popular vote.
Independents have swung toward Harris in large numbers.
Trump Media share price has declined below $26.
BTW – Vance is Swift Boating Walz. Let’s see – Walz was in charge of heavy artillery. Vance was a journalist. Yea Walz left the National Guard in 1985 when he was in his 40’s to serve in Congress where he promoted the rights of Veterans. Vance served the interests of a Silicon Valley billionaire.
Walz retired from NG in 2005?
He had one extended deployment somewhere cold
No
Since you’ve decided to be Anonymous and Incoherent:
“Walz served in the military for 24 years, enlisting in the Nebraska National Guard at 17 in 1981 and then transferring to the Minnesota National Guard in 1996. He retired in 2005 to begin his successful run for the U.S. House, representing Minnesota as command sergeant major, among the highest ranks for enlisted soldiers.”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/08/06/tim-walz-military-career-national-guard/74685414007/
Is “cold” now joining “science” and “multiracial” and “peaceful transition of power” on the right-wing list of bad things?
Not sure what “No” is all about.
“Walz specialized in heavy artillery and had proficiency ribbons in sharpshooting and hand grenades. But during the 21 years that Walz spent working with large artillery pieces, he suffered hearing loss and tinnitus in both ears, Minnesota Public Radio reported. He was allowed to continue his service after undergoing surgery, which partially resolved his hearing loss.”
Vance served as a public relations person. His only injury was a hang nail.
Walz was a Sergeant Major. Vance was a nobody.
British army, if a soldier missed deploying his former comrades send him their greeting card with a white feather glued on.
Walz retired when his battalion was alerted to deploy to Afghanistan.
Some bright.deplorables might start mailing white feathers.
Anonymous: 1939 version, or newer, of the movie is your source?
Anonymous, are you on the trump/putin payroll for denigrating military service? There is no doubt in my mind you have never served in the military. You have contempt for military service throughout your comments.
Anonymous, walz retired 2 months before his unit received its orders to deploy to iraq. I suggest you apologize for the incorrect comment and its implications. Walz served his country proudly. Which is more than what private bone spurs can say. Trump was a draft dodger, in your vietnam era parlance. Idiot.
For those readers, who similar to me, might be lacking in their education a little:
https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/White-Feather-Movement/
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/5050/white-feather-girls-womens-militarism-in-uk/
Relating this to Walz seems like something an ineffectual mainland Chinese propagandist would do, but, whatever. I suppose next they’ll tell us Walz should be wearing a green hat, er something.
Hey troll – I’m asking veterans to come over to your place and beat the eff out of you. You are an insult to even the troll community.
Vance is the gift that keep on giving. He is taking yet another news cycle into an attack on a vice presidential candidate. In the process he is alienating (attacking) all of those who gave similar or less service to the country than the 24 years Walz gave. That is a lot of people whose service he is pissing on. What could possible be the upside to justify such a big downside.
Check out how her lead continues to widen!
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
The 90 day graph is the fascinating one to me.
Here are two pictures of contrast. Look carefully at the faces of the children.
Here is Sarah Huckabee signing a bill to allow child labor for young kids — https://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/files/2024/08/sanders-signs-a-bill.jpg
And here is Tim Walz signing a bill for free lunch for kids — https://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/files/2024/08/walz-signs-a-bill.jpg
Which is the party of family? And Republicans wonder why they are losing — because they are ghouls.
The boy on the left of Yuckabee looks very upset at her. I wonder why.
It’s not what you’re thinking.
That’s her nephew. The week before he almost OD’d when he mistakenly thought her Wegovy pills were Flintstones vitamins.
@ joseph Well-stated. Our panel says 5-star comment by you.
Vance v. Walz re military service:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/j-d-vance-s-new-attack-on-tim-walz-proves-irony-is-dead/ar-AA1op6kL?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=68f377e978304675848a65cb79f20de9&ei=34
Vance has offered veterans another snapshot of executive-level representation since he was selected as Donald Trump’s number two on the Republican ticket. But his service in the Marines wasn’t exactly the boots-on-the-ground experience that he’s now framing it as. Instead, Vance served a single four-year enlistment in the public affairs section in the 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing, and wrote in his memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, that he was “lucky to escape any real fighting.”
Meanwhile, Walz served as an enlisted soldier in the Army National Guard for two decades, ultimately attaining the rank of command sergeant major. He enlisted in the Nebraska National Guard at the age of 17 and transferred to the Minnesota National Guard 15 years later in 1996. As part of the job, he responded to natural disasters, served with the European Security Force to support the war in Afghanistan, and was stationed around Europe to train with NATO militaries. He received several Army medals and retired as a master sergeant shortly before running for Congress in 2006. Walz has repeatedly said he left the military in order to run for office, not out of cowardice, as Vance implies.
Bringing the military disparity to the foreground of the election is, ultimately, an interesting choice for Vance and Trump, considering that a conveniently timed bone spur diagnosis helped the Republican presidential candidate skirt the Vietnam War draft in 1968.
I am Vietnam era, never in country, but a friend went in late 1972, one of the last USAF KIA was a supply clerk in a rocket attack.
Vance served in Afghanistan. Walz’ OEF deployment was to Italy in some training base.
Afghanistan bases had rockets attacks, etc. Italy pretty cushie (old school military term).
It so happens the 1st btn 127 Field Artillery where Walz was brevit CSM, was on orders to deploy, when Walz bailed (old school military term).
A couple of movies about white feathers from a Brit perspective
I relate to his losing CSM. In my reserve time I had too many obligations to go to school and missed promotion. I was not brevited that is NG politics.
You were a Vietnam draft dodger who has zero respect for those who served. If I were the host, I would have you and your disgusting trash banned.
“Vance served in Afghanistan.” Walz may have but Vance never did. Here is an accurate account of what Vance did:
‘Vance was deployed to Iraq for six months in late 2005. Based on his memoir, he would “attach to different units to get a sense of their daily routine,” escort civilian press, and write stories about individual marines.’
Six months doing public relations. That is it. You are a liar as well as being a disgusting piece of trash.
Memo to our host: isn’t time that this worthless insulting troll be banned? DAMN!
Your acquaintance with someone who died in Vietnam doesn’t make you special, or wise, of any different from tens and hundreds of thousands of us. It’s irrelevant to the question at hand, a cheap trick to claim status you don’t have.
What does set you apart from some of us is your ready participation in cheap shots and partisan dishonesty. This crazy “ante hoc, ergo propter hoc”* insinuation – a thing which happened after caused the thing which happened before – is slimy AND desperate. Just how intimidated are you by Walz?
*Apologies to Latin scholars.
Indeed a weird choice to focus on military service. But don’t say that on Twitter because Musk has decided that people using the word “weird”, get banned. That in itself is kind of weird – will he ban people for being weird?
Not if they fu@k a couch. Thats not weird.
pgl,
[Deleted since this item has been discredited *and* also because it’s a paid endorsement – MDC]
Hey Brucie – I guess who failed to read the first two words:
‘Paid letter’
Who paid these two Swift Boaters to write this trash? Dude – you are one piece of treasonous trash. Up there with Bonespur Trump’s respect for those who actually served.
This is long winded and total BS so I guess you can be excused for missing this:
After completing 20 years of service in 2001, I re-enlisted to serve our country for an additional four years following Sept. 11 and retired the year before my battalion was deployed to Iraq in order to run for Congress.
He served those four years. Full stop. The rest of this trash is “paid for” circular nonsense. Which I guess these two Swift Boaters could not get anyone else to sign this worthless trash.
But good boy little Brucie – Vance awaits your company on that couch.
https://x.com/Liz_Cheney?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1821278856365715849%7Ctwgr%5Ed85d4ba34e078ea33823d99de569f176d261b042%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fliz-cheney-takes-new-dig-jd-vances-rally-sizes-1936174
Hey Brucie – since you have become Vance’s buttboy, check out Liz Cheney celebrating Vance’s crowd size!
https://www.mediamatters.org/tim-walz/right-wing-media-push-old-debunked-smear-walzs-military-record-despite-his-24-years
Ah Brucie – Media Matters is onto your pathetic Swift Boat lying. Listen you piece of trash – if you ever served in the military (which I doubt) you should get down on your treasonous little knees and apologize to your former mates. But we know Bruce Hall the ultimate weasel will not do so.
Gee Brucie – your trash got deleted. It’s be debunked thoroughly in the meantime. I’ve noticed you ducked and ran. As a Swift Boater, you are an abject failure.
So Vance spent four years in the Marines and became a typist. Walz spent 24 years in the National Guard and became a Sergeant Major shooting cannons.
Part of the job of a sergeant is teaching raw recruits like Vance how to not shoot themselves in the foot. Apparently the lesson didn’t take.
Vance, critics question Walz’s military retirement
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/vance-critics-question-walz-s-military-retirement/ar-AA1oq38a?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c7e3c775875945b196b923e46a9ab897&ei=6
Thomas Behrends told the New York Post he believes Walz is a “traitor” and a “coward” who claimed “stolen valor.”
Really? Thomas Behrends was one of those two paid for liars that traitor Bruce Hall earlier cited. This story has been debunked over and over but of course the NY Post is a rightwing rag who promotes Swift Boat lies. Hey Brucie – you have some fellow lying traitors. Pathetic.
Tom Emmer is a MAGA Republican from Minnesota who has been telling the press that the Minnesota economy has been destroyed since Walz became governor in 2019. It seems FRED paints very different picture:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MNRQGSP
Real Gross Domestic Product: All Industry Total in Minnesota
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Oh wait – the BEA! Now who is lying here? Emmer or the BEA?
General FYI:
https://www.idsociety.org/covid-19-real-time-learning-network/diagnostics/covid-19-variant-update/#/+/0/publishedDate_na_dt/desc/
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home
Credit cards ruin people’s lives. How long can Americans pay that rate on things such as Christmas gifts?? (and I promise you they do and will)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1rl4E
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1rl40 <—just the two year loan, many would get longer.
I would argue eventually when you're paying that kind of rate, for a major family purchase, that eats into your consumption in a major way.
This gives me the giggles. Kevin Roberts, or perhaps the Trump campaign, have realized that the whole Heritage Foundation/Project 2025/right-wing agenda thing is not something Republicans should talk about before the election:
“Roberts is president of the Heritage Foundation, a hard-right Washington thinktank. His book, ‘Dawn’s Early Light: Taking Back Washington to Save America’, due to be published in September. It will now come out on 12 November, a week after Donald Trump and Kamala Harris square off on election day.”
https://www.theguardian.com/books/article/2024/aug/07/project-2025-roberts-jd-vance-introduction
I’m sure the national mood will be ripe for turning an ego-driven fever dream into a best seller right after the election.
George W. Bush spent the entire 2004 campaign denying Republicans would try to “privatize” Social Security. But as soon as January 2005 began the campaign was in full swing.
The good news is that the introduction to the book written by Vance has been leaked. So they can just do a Trump on this, and make all kinds of postulates (true or not) about what is in the book – then point out how Vance praised the book. So the unpublished book can become an even stronger weapon against them than it would have been if it had been published.
This may be the source of Menzie’s problem with the data versus the WMC survey.
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=481696351285494&set=a.129276846527448
Brucie found a map Facebook/ Now Brucie has no clue what it means. Hey Brucie – isn’t it time for you to join Vance on that couch?
Brucie? Brucie, three of the four figure in Menzie’s post are base on WMC data. The data show something very different from what WMC claims they show. That’s WMC’s problem, and yours, too apparently. Not Menzie’s.
Nice try at distracting us from WMC’s own data, but you failed.
A question enters my mind, which, I wonder ever dawns on guys like Brucie. My question: “How many childless cat ladies are actually women who avidly watch FOX news~~~the TV and thus FOX being nearly their only ‘companion’ ??” I think much more FOX watching cat ladies than Brucie and JD would envisage.
Which brings up another point in question: “When will MAGA people ever realize how much donald trump castigates, hates, and on a daily basis ladles condescension on his own fan base??
donald trump would just-as-soon spit on Bruce Hall and Steven Kopits than say “Hello” to either of them, if he met them and cameras were not present. One wonders how many years it would take for Brucie to figure this out. Has donald trump said one word of apology to the thousands of coal miners now unemployed who trump promised would not lose their jobs?? One single apology??? But Bruce is so damned dumb, he thinks if donald trump visits his town, he will go to Bruce’s house and flip barbecue for Brucie on his backyard grill.
Hi Menzie – I find this very interesting –
Americans tapped $8 billion in tax credits on home energy upgrades
Far more taxpayers than projected claimed the Inflation Reduction Act incentives on solar panels, heat pumps and other climate-friendly projects, data shows.
https://wapo.st/3Wu7IEI (I used a gift link – not sure if it works for everyone.)
“During a call Tuesday with reporters, Biden administration officials emphasized the savings that consumers would realize by switching to more efficient power. The typical household saves more than $2,000 a year after installing solar panels and from $1,000 to $3,000 by switching from oil or propane heating to an electric heat pump, they said.”
I have a friend here in Madison that delights in making me guess what his electric bill is each month – $27 for July – really helps with AC.
I wonder why the publication has been delayed:
Dawn’s Early Light: Taking Back Washington to Save America Hardcover – November 12, 2024
by Kevin Roberts (Author), J. D. Vance (Foreword)
https://www.amazon.com/Dawns-Early-Light-Burning-Washington/dp/0063353504
No fear – progressive media watchdog Media Matters for America has obtained a copy of the book and has found that it contains tirades against contraception, childless Americans, and even dog parks.
https://www.mediamatters.org/kevin-roberts/forthcoming-book-heritage-president-rails-against-birth-control-ivf-abortion
Translation: Voters don’t like the right-wing agenda.
By and large, voters want tax increases for the rich, access to health care, reproductive rights, environmental protection, a secure retirement system, voting rights, gun control, a healthy economy and a secure border. Republicans have voted against every one of those things.
The majority of voters support assistance to Ukraine and Taiwan, honest government and accountability for government officials, a system of justice which is fair, giving equal treatment to all. None of this is part of the Republican agenda.
But Republicans are on the “rght side” of whether Harris is Black and whether Walz is a slacker for spending only 24 years in the Guard.
Tell ya what, Brucie, Anonymous, Ricky and the rest – let’s vote on it.
Anybody see the weirdo vance on the tarmac? What a loser. And the incoherent trump in his latest rants on that little messenger app of his? Trump family, please replace him before he throws away your entire inheritance. Seriously, the dude has lost his marbles. Trump and vance may go down as the biggest joke this country has ever seen. Never seen such a ridiculous odd couple. They look like a couple of monkeys screwing a football out there. Well played political choice rick stryker.
Don’t forget Jefferson Davis and Alexander Stephens. The loss of 620,000 soldiers (750,000 if David Hacker is right), plus civilian deaths, all in a failed effort to divide the country. Seems pretty ridiculous to me. Though trying again to divide country, knowing what happened last time, is probably even more ridiculous.
Classic Trump to be grifting on his own election campaign funds. Wasting a lot of funds on advertising on his social media platform will funnel campaign funds into his own pockets. But it is completely wasted, because nobody on “Truth for Sociopaths” need to be convinced to vote for Trump. It’s like when his “Charity” organization purchased huge portraits of Trump to hang in his golf resort. Similar to when he forces GOP fundraisers to be held at his properties. Imagine what Fox would say if a democrat had done this. With Trump its so common that even liberal media don’t think its news anymore.
You never thought the orange abomination could make Mike “Bobblehead” Pence look like a real gem, did you?? The good news is JD’s and Pence’s rally crowds are roughly the same.
what really terrorizes trump at night? this will be the SECOND time he loses an election to harris. he has already lost the popular vote to a women both times.