GDPNow vs. WSJ July Forecast

From Atlanta Fed today, 2.9% SAAR in Q3:

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ July survey mean growth iterated on Q2 advance (teal), and GDPNow for Q3 growth iterated on Q2 advance (light blue square), all in bn Ch.2017$. Source: BEA 2024Q2 advance, WSJ survey, Atlanta Fed (8/6), and author’s calculations.

Recall, roughly a third of the components of the advance release GDP are estimated, hence the adjective “advance” (or in other countries, “flash”).

For comparison, yesterday’s Goldman Sachs tracking estimate is at 2.6%.

 

16 thoughts on “GDPNow vs. WSJ July Forecast”

  2. Macroduck

    Election stuff:

    Nate Silver has Harris at 50.5% to win the electoral college.

    Race to the White House has Harris with 275 electoral votes, vs 262 for Trump; 270 electoral votes needed to win.

    270-to-win’s “polls plus pundits” map has Harris with 226 electoral votes, Trump with 251 and 61 too close to call. The straight “polls” map is 208/219/111.

    This business of Harris looking like winning the electoral collage is new. PredictIt hasn’t updated for today, and yesterday showed a slight decline in the odds Harris would win – perhaps a reflection of thr market wobble. Time for popcorn – let’s see what today’s VP announcement and electoral college projections do to betting odds.

    1. Macroduck

      PredictIt now shows “Harris wins” up 2 cents on the day, “Trump wins” down 4 cents.

  3. AS

    I notice that real personal consumption, FRED series PCECC 96 increased during 2024Q2 at an annual rate of 2.3%. So, we have a good start related to the total calculation of GDP.

      1. Moses Herzog

        Couldn’t agree more on the latter. Choosing to remain in denial on the former.

        There were some glimmers of hope there, but most of it was bad.

        1. Ivan

          At the current pace of progress and losses per square mile conquered, there would not be a single Russian alive by the time they reach Lviv. Ukraine needs mostly to get better organized to stop the slow but undeniable Russian progress. Their use of drones and missiles in combination attacks have been effective at weakening Russian forces. They have brilliantly made use of the drone safe spaces Russia create when they send Shahed drones towards Ukraine, as safe corridors for their own drones going the opposite direction. They have taken out multiple Russian air defense systems in Crimea and now have received the first F16 jets. The main problem has been the glide bombs which they may now have a better chance of countering.

          1. Ivan

            The current Russian offensive was expected to run out of steam in 6-8 weeks. Now with the diversion in Kursk Ukraine has probably cut that timeline in half. Russia has been forced to divert forces up north to defend against the Ukrainian incursion into their territory. Mud season begin in about 2-3 months and will put a stop to heavy armor fighting until the ground freeze.

            By winter Ukraine should be in a much stronger position. The big problem has been with glide bombs. Those are hard to fight and Russia has a much bigger arsenal of them than they have missiles – and each glide bomb can carry more explosives than a missile. With F16’s in place Ukraine should be able to push the launching of glide bombs further back into Russia and be better able to counter them.

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