From X, on Thursday:
This is beyond ridiculous: industrial production and capacity utilization saw another massive downward revision, and Jul’s print still came in negative M/M – manufacturing is in recession:
Note: Dr. Antoni has used industrial production, capacity utilization in the above graph, rather than manufacturing.
This struck me as an odd characterization, so I plotted the data over the same period (using manufacturing instead of industrial classification).
Figure 1: Manufacturing production (blue, left scale), employment (tan, left scale), aggregate hours (green, left scale), and real valued added (red), all in logs, 2007M12=0, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, in % (black, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Note: 2007M12 is NBER’s business cycle peak. Source: Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA via FRED, NBER.
The figure highlights two points: (1) manufacturing production (Fed index) and value added differ, since the former is gross, the latter net; (2) employment and hours are problematic measures for indicators since productivity in manufacturing is higher than the overall economy.
While capacity utilization has declined, it is still higher than the level on the eve of the pandemic.
It’s hard to see what’s going on more recently, so I present the corresponding post-pandemic data in Figure 2:
Figure 2: Manufacturing production (blue, left scale), employment (tan, left scale), aggregate hours (green, left scale), and real valued added (red), all in logs, 2021M07=0, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, in % (black, right scale). Source: Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA via FRED.
We don’t have value added for Q2, but we do have manufacturing production and employment through July. These preliminary figures indicate slowing, but not clear to me they’re into recession territory (whatever a sectoral recession is).
Trump may be a disgusting pig but he is no match for his running mate:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/jd-vance-compares-harris-to-jeffrey-epstein-and-claims-polls-showing-trump-losing-are-fake/ar-AA1p0yIe?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=61044285848444d8a2566acbe39b0050&ei=14
Speaking on Fox News Sunday, the Republican vice presidential candidate made the bizarre comparison between the Democratic presidential contender and Epstein, the late notorious sex criminal who had known connections to central figures in American political life, including both Donald Trump and Bill Clinton. “Giving Kamala Harris control over inflation policy, it’s like giving Jeffrey Epstein control over human trafficking policy,” Vance told host Shannon Bream, as he attempted to land an attack on Harris over the issue of the economy.
Did I say disgusting? Now weird is too kind. More like moronic. I would say Vance is a carnival barker but then I might get sued by the union of carnival barkers for defamation.
While their infantile personal attacks are getting tiresome even for their supporters (look at the faces of people handpicked to stand behind them) – they don’t seem to get how they are helping build up a hunger for a positive policy message about the future. Kamala will steal their lunch and eat it too.
But Vance and Trump will say the Democrats are being the mean ones by calling them WEIRD. Poor little babies!
He seems to have a few fanboys who do not get how much he is lying to them.
A bit out of date, but I’m only one guy:
SAN FRANCISCO (The Borowitz Report)—For over two hours on Monday night, Donald J. Trump and Elon Musk pulled back the curtain on the secrets that have enabled them to drive once-promising businesses into the ground.
It was a rare opportunity for fans of bankrupt casinos and shrinking social-media platforms to learn from the men behind the fiascos.
“I think the key to turning any business into a disaster is simple,” Musk opined. “You have to take a brand that people love and make it toxic. I don’t mean to brag, but that’s kind of my superpower.”
“That’s true up to a point, but you also have to make sure that the product itself is horrible,” Trump responded. “Ask anyone who’s stayed at one of my hotels and found it infested with bedbugs.”
“Fair enough,” Musk replied. “But I think anyone who has tried to watch this interview has found that the product sucks as well.”
These two clowns are proud that they lost a lot of other people’s money? Sick.
Antoni seems dedicated to earning himself a permanent position in the GOP propaganda machine. His tone, his abuse of data, his selective attention all point to deliberate dishonesty – the price of entry to the echo chamber.
Kudlow is perhaps the most successful example of this. He was light on credentials, light on analytic skill when he worked at Bear Stearns, but he had tennis and the gift of gab, which was enough to make the sales team happy. He couldn’t handle coke, which was like snack food for the Wall Street sales force at the time, and blew himself up. Saying ridiculous things about the economy and about policy got him back to gainful employment.
Antoni has credentials, of a sort, no evident analytical skills, no history of employment on Wall Street or in government. How can he peddle his limited resume? Lie for a living. Works for Kudlow.
I don’t have reason to expect Antoni will end up in close proximity to power, or with an eye-popping pay check. Guys like him are a dime a dozen. Heritage needs quotidian crap to keep the presses humming, and Antoni is up to the task, but there’s nothing special about his crap. Zero Hedge runs similar dreck from dozens of other wannabes.
https://econospeak.blogspot.com/2015/02/kudlows-deficit-dance.html
Kudlow’s Deficit Dance
My original Angrybear mocking of Kudlow’s classically stupid National Review trash from over 22 years ago is not around anymore but this post is. Read how idiotic Kudlow can be and how Robert “that’s class warfare” fell for it.
“Over the last several years there’s been this kind of perversion that has taken place, I think, which is to suggest that the measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you beat down. When what we know is the real and true measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you lift up,” Harris told a crowd of supporters. “Anybody who’s about beating down other people is a coward.”
I wonder who she might be referring to?!
A prosecutor making her case. I think I might actually take out the time to do something I haven’t done in decades – watch a full presidential debate from beginning to end on September 10’th.
Professor Barkley Rosser Jr. was a much bigger fan of Kamala Harris than I was back in 2020 during the primaries. I strongly thought she lacked in substance. Professor Rosser seemed to think highly of her and her father. Could Rosser have been right about her all along, and ME wrong??? ME?!?!?!?!…… wrong???
“Naaaaaaaahh!!!!!!!!”
I would never say that YOU were wrong. Maybe just state that both Kamala and you have matured/developed/progressed (sobered up?).
I barely remember her from 2020 but have been hugely impressed with her in the past two months.
Wow, I said a self-deprecating joke….. crediting someone who is now DEAD, and got insulted in the process. All you innocent little children, learn from Uncle Moses’ deep deep mistakes in interpersonal communication.
ivan has now sent sad poor Uncle Moses into social shock.
i tried satire once in a freshman composition class. poor girl critiquing the article must have been as poor at reading comprehension as i was in communication skills. she looked at me like i really wanted to bake small children in the oven. today i probably would have been reported to social services…
https://web.stanford.edu/~dharris/
Dr. Daniel Harris of Stanford University has an impressive CV. Poor little Donald Trump thinks all Dr. Harris represents is Marxism. Donald is one dumb clown.
OK, I suspect some “do-good-er” has filtered one of my comments here. Uhm, I don’t disagree, I don’t disagree, I defer to the host’s better judgment. If it saves me from grimacing alone in my room this Wednesday I appreciate it.