From CME:
Figure 1: Effective Fed funds (bold black), from futures as of 7/26 (teal), as of 8/2 (red), and of 8/5 noon ET (light blue), in %. Source: Fed, CME, author’s calculations.
Note the ten year Treasury yield also fell at open:
Note: Central Time.
Addendum:
Fed funds path relative to CBO June projection:
Figure 2: Fed funds (black), CBO projection (blue), WSJ July survey mean end-of-quarter (pink square), CME futures implied as of 7/26 (green), as of 8/5 noon ET (red), all in %. Source: Fed, CME, WSJ survey, and author’s calculations.
I am hearing chatter about a 1.5% drop by the end of the year. That may be too much, but it would not be harmful in the long run. But I have a new mortgage, and would happily refinance if that occurs. I certainly have a financial interest in lower rates, sooner.
I’m thinking the FED should drop interest rates 1.0% ASAP and another 0.5% over the rest of the year. So an overall drop of 1.5% sounds right to me.
Google loses massive antitrust lawsuit over its search dominance
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/05/business/google-loses-antitrust-lawsuit-doj/index.html
It seems this White House is serious about anti-trust. Good for them.
Oh wait – the CEO of LinkedIn is going to have a pity party. Too bad.
Yeah. Carry trade. And it was foreseen.
From today:
“Mexico Peso Packs a Year of Moves Into One Day as Carry Unwinds” Bloomberg headline
“Global market rout has more to do with end of cheap funding than US economy” Reuters headline
“Why the Yen Carry Trade Unwind Has Further to Go” Extraordinarily naive WSJ headline
“Bitcoin Price Crash to $50K Dashes Carry Traders’ Hopes” Coindesk headline
From Friday:
“JPY: Peeling back the carry trade onion” Think.ING
“The end of the ‘carry trade’? How Japan’s yen could be ripping through U.S. stocks” CNBC headline
J D Vance thought he was being a little smarty pants when he said Governor Shapiro was a bad impression of Barack Obama. Shapiro relied:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/08/02/gov_shapiro_jd_vance_is_the_most_inorganic_candidate_ive_ever_seen_trump_clearly_has_buyers_remorse.html
“Barack Obama was probably our most gifted orator of my time, so that’s kind of a weird insult,” Shapiro said. “I’ll say this about JD Vance: it’s really hard being honest with the American people when you’re not being honest with yourself. He is the most inorganic candidate I think I have ever seen. He doesn’t know what he believes, and that is why it is impossible for him to articulate a coherent message to the American people—because he doesn’t believe it. This guy is not exactly off to a good start. It is clear that Trump really has buyer’s remorse. So, if he wants to sling insults in my direction, which I’m not even sure is an insult, let him do it. Bring it on. I’ll be ready for whatever JD Vance throws my direction.”
Vance is the gift that keeps on giving. Thanks donald.
In other news, clarence thomas has clearly shown how the supreme court can be bought. He may be the most corrupt justice in history.
I really wish that George Soros would step forward and say “Clarence, I know you get a lot of ‘gifts’ from some of your conservative friends, but I’m richer than they are, and, if I like your decision-making over the next year, there’ll be a nice seven-figure ‘gratuity’ in your Christmas stocking for you!”
Just to see what he would do.
i wish AOC would secretly record a video of her flirting with the old man, and him propositioning her. did you see him fawning over her in a recent interview. she could take the creepy old man down in one fell swoop. the old man is just weird with his comments about young women.
I like Kelly and Shapiro both as VP candidates, but Kelly is a very far behind 2nd place. Shapiro is the slamdunk choice here for VP. But Harris has her fair share of Hillary stupid genes, so I wouldn’t be surprised if she went with some other choice. Harris is insecure, so it wouldn’t shock me at all if she went for Kelly’s Charlie Brown type dullness.
Walz seems like a solid choice.