EJ Antoni (Heritage) is dubious about GDPNow’s (and other nowcasts) regarding Q3 growth. From X aka Twitter today:
Latest Q3 Nowcasts: ATL 2.5% (2.0% prev) NY 2.49% (1.94 prev) STL 2.05% (1.65 prev) It’s going to take stellar consumer spending numbers for Aug and Sep to make this a reality:
I wondered about this, in light of the measured acceleration of real consumption growth (m/m AR 4.6% in July). GDPNow reports nowcasted growth of components, like consumption so one can check the nowcast. GDPNow’s 30 August has a 3.8% q/q AR growth rate penciled in. What’s the picture look like?
Figure 1: Consumption (bold black), GDPNow nowcast as of 30 Aug (blue line), August SPF median (red line), and ARIMA(0,1,0) forecast (blue line), +/- 1 standard error band (gray lines), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR, log scale. Forecast estimated in log first differences, 2021M07-2024M07. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
Admittedly, GDPNow’s nowcasted consumption is above the August SPF median (although this forecast was generated in early August). However, based entirely on a simple autoregressive model, 3.8% q/q AR consumption growth would not be surprising at all, statistically speaking.
This troll (yea he has become this) had an earlier tweet:
‘We’re not heading back to 2.0% inflation – never were’
If he keeps this up, Twitter may have to ban him. His trash fits better on Truth Social.
More of his trolling – just 18 hours ago:
‘Annual inflation may not have gotten worse in Jul but prices kept rising, and this is what the consumer feels so acutely: new record highs, month after month’.
Wow – this pretend economist expects deflation until we get the price level to fall by 20% from current levels? And we thought Bruce Hall was stupid! b
Now let’s return to real economics!
https://www.salon.com/2024/08/31/unions-rally-corporations-worry-how-kamala-harris-campaign-has-divided-the-grocery-industry/
Unions rally, corporations worry: How Kamala Harris’ campaign has divided the grocery industry
Grocery unions, long-standing champions of fair wages and working conditions, are rallying behind her with a fervor not seen since the Obama years. But it’s not all applause. The leaders of several large-scale retailers and some corporate grocers are pushing back against Harris’ blunt characterization of their pricing strategies as “greedflation,” claiming her remarks are either unfair or unfounded. The result is a unique political divide between supermarket workers and their corporate bosses, all in the shadow of the ongoing national legal debate over whether two of the largest supermarket chains in the country, Kroger and Albertsons, should be able to merge their operations.
Southern Californians remember the long lines at Albertsons when their workers had to strike to get decent wages and a few fringe benefits. This merger is less an attempt to monopolize the setting of grocery prices as it is an attempt to seize the compensation for grocery workers. Yea I get it – trolls like Steve Koptis insist there is no such thing as monopsony power but these trolls are simply put – morons.
This just in – Bill Maher can say some very repulsive things:
Pelosi refutes Maher’s suggestion she took responsibility for Jan. 6 in resurfaced video
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pelosi-refutes-maher-s-suggestion-she-took-responsibility-for-jan-6-in-resurfaced-video/ar-AA1pLVRH?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=a45916abfbc64f05947b1f57d46f8f50&ei=16
“There’s some footage of you that just came out where you’re talking about — you say, I’m quoting you, ‘I take responsibility,’” Maher said Friday on “Real Time with Bill Maher,” while interviewing Pelosi.
He questioned the former Speaker on what she meant in the unveiled footage, saying he believes she’s talking about “the fact that there should’ve been more protection there?”
“First of all, who could’ve ever thought that the president of the United States would incite an insurrection …” Pelosi said, in a clip highlighted by Mediaite, before Maher interjected.
“Me,” the host replied. “I was saying it for years.”
She responded, “I’m not ever taking responsibility for [former President] Donald Trump.”
Taking responsibility for security is not the same as taking responsibility for the insurrection. But Bill probably did her a favor by giving her a chance to refute another right wing moron talking point. She actually did an investigation into what went wrong with security and there were some people who lost their job and processes that have been changed for the better.
There is a long tradition among those who have an ax to grind with reported economic data (or forecasts) of pointing out that revisions (or actual reported data) could turn out more to their liking. What is far less common is for those people to point out that revisions (reported data) are usually just as likely to turn out less to their liking.
It’s as if there are Kübler-Ross stages for admitting to that the world uis not to one’s liking:
1) The data print/median forecast is wrong.
2) Revisions will prove me correct.
3) There will be more revisions.
4) It’s the wrong data series, anyway. (Fast food prices are better than all prices at telling us what’s happening to the cost of living.)
5) The official data are wrong. (Shadow Stats)
6) There’s a conspiracy (Climate change deniers)
Some of these guys would die before admitting that the world isn’t how they want it to be. It’s a Kübler-Ross thing, I guess.
Uh Oh, another Trump “enterprise”:
https://www.worldlibertyfinancial.com/
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/08/29/trumps-new-crypto-business-to-offer-access-to-high-yield-investments-website-says/
Trump’s New Crypto Business to Offer Access to ‘High-Yield’ Investments, Website Says
World Liberty Financial is “the only crypto DeFi platform supported by Donald J. Trump,” according to homepage metadata.
Uh the absolute value of a large percentage decline in value might be described as “high”.
More violence at a Trump rally? So why was Trump cheering this violence on? Oh yea – one of his MAGA morons decided to attack the press. So Trump wanted this violence. At least the security guards did the adult thing.
‘He’s on our side’: Video shows Trump cheering on supporter who attacked press at PA rally
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/he-s-on-our-side-video-shows-trump-cheering-on-supporter-who-attacked-press-at-pa-rally/ar-AA1pLMA7?ocid=BingNewsSerp
‘On Friday, a rally former President Donald Trump was hosting in Johnstown, Pennsylvania briefly erupted into chaos when one of his supporters lunged into the press area to attack journalists. Video of the incident shows the ex-president actively encouraging the man as he was being tackled by security. In the video — which was tweeted Saturday morning by former NBCUniversal senior executive Mike Sington — three angles of the incident are shown simultaneously. One angle shows Trump at the lectern as he’s speaking, another shows the overhead view of the Trump supporter jumping over the barricade separating the press pool from rally attendees and a third perspective shows the up-close view of security personnel apprehending the man.’
I suppose this will be another incident of MAGA/Fascist violence the “liberal” media will snore through.
I have a fact check question for anyone who knows how to access the corporate profits for US groceries. I was listening to someone arguing the obvious – JD Vance is a clueless idiot. But the specific point was Vance trying to argue inflation has nothing to do with corporate greed.
The rebuttal claimed – which would be the fact check – that grocery profits were $14 billion in 2019 but rose by 79% to $25 billion by 2023. Is that something that could be verified?
Of course all the usual caveats in terms of doing this in inflation adjusted terms and maybe relative to overall GDP applies. Even then – it would be a significant increase.
Antoni is the gift that keeps on giving. Faux News did an interview with this spin machine which came down to three things:
(1) Harris will adopt the Maduro plan. COMMUNISM.
(2) When asked about economics, he kept referring to poll data not economic data.
(3) And of course Harris has blood on her hands because that short blip in inflation was a murder spree.
I’m sorry but he is a complete embarrassment to the economics profession. But hey – like Steve Koptis, he gets invited to appear on Faux News!
I suspect Moses gets all of that and more. As for this question: Why bother?
Trump needs constant attention. Sort of like a two month old baby.
Just wondering if Kamala Harris is rooting for a recession (may not now and maybe worse).
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/09/taxing-unrealized-capital-gains-is-a-terrible-idea.html
Happy Labor Day!
Hit and run Brucie boy has become an expert at ducking. But the little weasel pops up again.
Let’s see – taxing income as it accrues is going to cause a recession? Dude – I get EJ Antoni is giving you a run for your money per most dishonest and stupid troll of the year but relax, your lead is only getting larger.
Let’s see – taxing income as it accrues is going to cause a recession?
So, when did variable asset valuations become “income”?
Do you even know what a recession is? If so, why this STUPID come back?
Now Tyler never said a damn thing about a recession. That would be Brucie boy. And know we know Brucie boy had no effing clue what he meant. Per usual!
BTW dumba$$. The value of publicly traded companies vary all the time. And yes an increase in the value of an asset is income by almost anyone’s definition. Oh wait – you do not even know what “income” even means.
Come on Brucie – go to your community college and learn some basics before you comment again.
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~auerbach/
Alan Auerbach
I’m giving little Brucie a reading assignment (one we know he will duck). Auerbach is the conservative go to person when it comes to smart tax policy. And maybe Tyler is too wrapped up in the weeds of his own “my life is complicated” but Auerbach agrees with a lot of what Furman has written. Auerbach is smart enough to design efficient and effective tax laws but it seems your boy Trump got lost when Auerbach tried to help him write the 2017 tax law. So what we got was one complex POS that ended up being a massive give away to rich people.
Now in that incoherent rant from Tyler (yea – it was as bad as the standard Bruce Hall rambling) he did get off one good point. We should tax capital gains after inflation adjustments. Most conservative and liberal economists have been saying that for decades. But I guess Tyler is too stupid to know that either. Oh wait – inflation adjustments – something that is WAY OVER little Brucie’s excuse for a brain.
Hey Brucie – I’m sorry you do not get to appear on Faux News and Antoni does – after all your worthlessness exceeds his my a country mile.
Taxing actual capital gains versus something that hasn’t been locked in or realized is sort of like the neighborhood capo taking his protection money each week.
Are you using a retarded version of ChatGPT? Please note your word salad accomplishes only one thing. Making the dumbest troll ever look even dumber.
I read Auerbach’s list of credits/papers to which you linked. Is there something related to Harris’ “unrealized income taxing scheme” that you were attempting to point out?
You are lying. No way you have read his work on tax policy. If you had – then you would have not asked such a dumb question.
BTW Brucie – we were going to give you a gentlemen’s D but after that lie you get the grade you deserve – an F-.
This had me falling on the floor:
“Then suppose that, the year after, the start-up crashes and has to be liquidated at a very low value. There isn’t any refund from the tax man. So you have lost not only your investment but also at least $1 billion more, again noting the exact numbers can vary a bit here. Ex ante, why would you enter into deals like this? But of course a lot of start-up sectors have return structures very much like that, namely some high initial valuations but with reasonably high percentages of a later crash.”
Tyler did not give a single example but I will – Trump Media stock!
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/
Thanks Tyler for reminding us that anything Trump touches will turn into a horrible investment for everyone else! MAGA!
Nice example. But you didn’t really dispute why Tyler had to say… because you can’t?
I don’t need to dispute garbled BS. That is all Tyler’s “it’s complicated” BS is. Dude – when you finally bother to make a real contribution here – we will take notice. Oh wait – you have no idea what a contribution even is which is why you bore us with worthless links.
You didn’t really address the donkey in the room: at what point does the government declare that you’ve amassed those “unrealized” gains? At the highest market valuation? At the end of a calendar year? Whenever it feel like taxing you? When the investment fails?
That old income tax that was never going to affect anyone other than the very wealthy was just too big of a temptation for the government. What makes you think this little imaginary pot of gold won’t result in the same government greed?
Highest market value? Try fair market value. A basic economic concept which of course little Brucie will never understand.
Dude – you as usual are wasting our time with your stupid worthless needling. Then again – what should we expect from a stupid worthless troll.
Oh Brucie, there you go again. More drive-by commentary, without making a real point. How, pray tell does your link relate to recession?
As to Cowen’s argument against taxing unrealized gains, he ignores a great deal – everything that the other side has in mind as a reason to tax unrealized gains.
They say “it would reduce comication”. Cowen says “it would be complicated”. Tax law and regulation ARE complicated. There is plenty of room to reduce complication and still have a comicated system. Cowen is pretending otherwise.
What we know it that rich folk borrow, using assets as collateral, rather than selling assets and claim a tax deduction on the interest paid. They in fact avoid taxation twice. Taxation of unrealized gains addresses this tax-avoidance scheme. It taxes those rich who pay the least in taxes. It doesn’t distort incentives particularly badly, relative to other forms of taxation.
Know which taxes, in our system, do distort incentives? Taxes on labor.
Happy Labor Day.
“Tax law and regulation ARE complicated.”
Anyone who even remotely gets US tax laws knows most of the complications are designed to shelter rich people from paying taxes. We can tax the rich and reduce these needless complications if we want to. Cowen does not want to – and neither does Brucie’s bosses – Trump etc.
And yea Tyler never said anything about a recession. In fact, he suggested doing the valuations would require more people being employed. But of course Kelly Anne Conway needed to have someone say RECESSION so little Brucie boy obeyed his master.
So, you like the idea of taxing something that isn’t something yet? Well, why not just apply that to income, too? Let’s see, your lifetime income will be $25 million, so you owe taxes on that now. You owe your fair share, so don’t complain. We know you can borrow based on your current and estimated income and then deduct interest payments as a means to avoid paying taxes, so we’re going to shut that down now!
A business with a high fair market value “isn”t something yet”? God – you are the dumbest troll ever. Warren Buffett does this all the time. Of course Warren has never bought Trump Media stock which seems to be your only experience at valuing enterprises.
Come on Bruce – we get it. You are beyond STUPID. So relax and take the day off.
Macroduck, remember that old saw about those who fail to learn from history?
https://daily.jstor.org/a-brief-history-of-the-income-tax/
Andrew Mellon? That’s your history lesson? Was there a point to your latest worthless link? Oh yea – you love stupid and worthless trash. Hey Bruce boy – we got that a long time ago.
Did little Brucie once again fail to read his own link. Livia – who is neither an economist nor a tax expert but Brucie has found his next incompetent guru – writes:
W. Elliot Brownlee explains how for almost a century after its foundation, the federal government kept its expenses down by not really doing much. That meant it could get by relying mostly on import tariffs—a policy that had the added benefit of protecting the nation’s manufacturers from European competitors.
TARIFFS – how Trump intends to pay for spending. Except his spending habits are several multiples of those we had a century ago. Come on Brucie – you did not read Auerbach’s research as you did not even read your own damn link. As usual!
This is Livia’s close?
“Politicians continue to debate how much of the burden the middle class should pay, and what exemptions should be carved out. But the basic structure of the income tax had been determined. It was a tool for everyone to chip in and pay for the government, not a way of addressing inequality.”
Seriously? Livia is almost as stupid as Bruce Hall. Which would put her IQ in the single digits.
Taxing the rich is such a bad idea – buh-hu. The world will most certainly explode if we do that – buh -hu. Trickle down will definitely work one day if we keep trying and trying and trying and trying……
https://www.azquotes.com/author/5279-John_Kenneth_Galbraith
If you feed enough oats to the horse, some will pass through to feed the sparrows (referring to “trickle down” economics).
John Kenneth Galbraith
Isn’t odd that little Brucie Hall never cites the blog of Greg Mankiw. After all Mankiw is as conservative as it gets with lots of his simple minded criticisms of the Harris economic proposals. I would note over at Greg’s place why his markets are perfect views are not consistent with the real world but of course Greg cut off comments a while back (he hated being reminded that people pay things like sales taxes). But back to where I started – why does little Brucie never cite Mankiw’s blog. Oh yea – comments like these:
‘I plan to vote for Kamala Harris. Why? Simply because she is not Donald Trump. In my judgment, Trump is (1) an authoritarian narcissist whose rhetoric is mean-spirited and untethered from reality and (2) an isolationist with wrong-headed views on trade and immigration and downright scary views on national security issues like NATO, Ukraine, and Taiwan.’
Mankiw may be a bit closed minded when it comes to economics – but he is not the utter moron that Bruce Hall is. And oh yea – Mankiw is smart enough to know why a carbon tax is a good idea but not little Brucie boy!
Aw, Trump is “mean-spirited” and Harris says such nice things about yellow school buses. Yeah, that’s a good rationale.
So now you are arguing with Bush43’s chief economist? Yea – you are one retarded dude.