Recall the preliminary benchmark deducted 818K from the March NFP reading.
Figure 1: Level of nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), implied from CES preliminary benchmark (red), from Philadelphia early benchmark (tan), Goldman Sachs estimate of preliminary revision (light blue). Early benchmark calculated using ratio of sum-of-states early benchmark to sum-of-states. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
Why is the Goldman Sachs estimate so much closer to the Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark? Previously, GS argued the underreporting of employment of unauthorized immigrants might explain the disjuncture, since the preliminary benchmark is based on QCEW figures which require SSN’s etc. In a note today, GS notes the preliminary benchmark downward revisions larger in states and industries with larger shares of unauthorized immigrants. Chart 2 from Peng and Mericle, Goldman Sachs, today.
Source: Peng, Mericle, “US Daily: Q&A on the Effect of Immigration on the Preliminary
Benchmark Revisions to Payrolls,” Goldman Sachs, 30 August 2024.
What about the CPS series adjusted to the NFP concept. Considering the likely undercounting of immigrants implicit in the BLS population controls, it makes sense to look at an adjusted adjusted series. This shows up as follows:
Figure 2: Level of nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), implied from CES preliminary benchmark (red), from Philadelphia early benchmark (tan), Goldman Sachs estimate of preliminary revision (light blue), and CPS series adjusted to NFP concept, adjusted to account for CBO estimates of immigration (see text here) (teal), all in 000’s, s.a. Early benchmark calculated using ratio of sum-of-states early benchmark to sum-of-states. Adjusted CPS series adjusted using ratio of employment under alternative to BLS research series. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
JD Vance Posts 2007 Miss Teen USA Clip In Sexist Dig On Kamala Harris
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/jd-vance-posts-2007-miss-teen-usa-clip-in-sexist-dig-on-kamala-harris/ar-AA1pFW0B?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance likened Vice President Kamala Harris to a teenage beauty pageant contestant on Thursday. In response to Harris’ first sit-down interview with a professional journalist since becoming Democrats’ presidential nominee, Vance posted an infamous clip of a Miss Teen USA contestant struggling to answer a question in 2007. “BREAKING: I have gotten ahold of the full Kamala Harris CNN interview,” Vance wrote on social media, attaching a video of then-18-year-old Caitlin Upton stammering incoherently through an answer about why some Americans supposedly can’t find the U.S. on a map. Upton, an honor student, was widely ridiculed for her answer in 2007. In an interview afterward, she said she just froze up. “Personally, my friends and I, we know exactly where the United States is on a map,” she said then.
Comparing Harris, a presidential candidate, to an old clip of a teenager at a beauty pageant — an inherently gendered activity, which often carries the false stereotype that contestants are ignorant or silly — is notable. While Upton’s fumbling response made headlines at the time, she has not been in the public eye since.
What to say about JD who was offered the chance to apologize for this stupid and disgusting stunt? JD said he would not apologize as this was just a joke and we should all relax and learn to laugh at ourselves? Seriously JD – not only was this a sexist smear against VP Harris but you little pathetic joke emotionally hurt Ms. Upton in the extreme.
But old JD does not care. Yea old JD is the joke. He’s more than weird. He’s a sicko.
Gwen Walz had a no-nonsense takedown of JD Vance sexist crap about childless teachers: https://news.yahoo.com/news/gwen-walz-uses-her-teacher-214925560.html
If you want a stupid frat-bro one heart beat from the Presidency – Vance is your boy.
Coloradans rally against racist, anti-immigrant signs posted in metro bus stops: ‘We’re not going back’
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coloradans-rally-against-racist-anti-immigrant-signs-posted-in-metro-bus-stops-we-re-not-going-back/ar-AA1pJLW8?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ae51323d786246099d57a63aad809f24&ei=15
Bus stops in Denver, NYC, and Chicago. This racist sign campaign likely is expensive. Huh – maybe it is being paid for by proceeds of those Trump Digital Trading Cards.
Interesting Thanks Chinny
Menzie
Speaking of immigrants – have you seen the fresh attempt at both-sides to somehow mainstream Trump by the NY Times – “Harris and Trump Have Housing Ideas. Economists Have Doubts” – Harris has presented a detailed policy that includes tax credits for home buyers and a federal fund to spur innovative housing construction (IMO – mainstream progressive economic proposals – that have been implemented before – remember Obama’s expanded the housing credit as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 – personal note I was finally able to purchase my first home with the help of that credit – ) (here is link to Harris policy: https://mailchi.mp/press.kamalaharris.com/vice-president-harris-lays-out-agenda-to-lower-costs-for-american-families
Meanwhile in a straight – up comparison the authors present Trump’s plan – to quote, “Mr. Trump is promising to lower housing costs by stopping “the unsustainable invasion of illegal aliens which is driving up housing costs,” said Karoline Leavitt, his campaign’s national press secretary.” although the authors go on to say “But even if Mr. Trump was able to expel large numbers of undocumented immigrants — an open question — that alone would not solve the housing crisis. Daryl Fairweather, the chief economist at Redfin, noted that the acceleration in home prices long preceded the recent increase in the unauthorized immigrant population, so mass deportations would not address its root cause.” (also no mention of impact Trump’s mass deportation of construction workers will have on housing supply.)
The proper headline should have been “Harris presents responsible housing policy – Trump presents lunacy” but, sure economists have doubts about Harris proposals but think Trump’s proposals are B.S. Corporate media – once again – trying to frame Trump as somehow a normal Presidential candidate.
Here is link to NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/30/business/economy/housing-plan-harris-trump.html Also – note the only “trump economist???” quoted was Karoline Leavitt, his campaign’s national press secretary.
Also Trump is promising that he alone will lower interest rates- to even treat that as serious policy proposal/statement from a proven business fraudster is ludicrous.
I was wondering if Michael Strain had ever written anything on housing policy. As far as I could find – this is it:
Manic Housing Market Needs a Calming Dose of Deregulation
The end of the pandemic will be a stabilizing force, but the supply of homes won’t rise to meet the demand without changes in land-use and zoning rules.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-01/real-estate-prices-won-t-return-to-earth-without-deregulation
No surprise that an AEI dude would call for less regulation. That does not mean he’s wrong. In fact the Biden CEA agreed (see chapter 4 of the 2024 Economic Report of the President). And if anyone actually bothered to READ what Team Harris are saying – they are proposing similar proposals.
On Trump’s racist plans, we have this critique:
‘Albert Saiz, a professor of urban economics and real estate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said mass deportations might slow the rate that rents were increasing in cities like New York and San Francisco, but he doubted that costs for home sales across the country would decrease. In fact, the policy could prove counterproductive. Fairweather also noted that 25% of construction workers were foreign-born, so mass deportations may also reduce the labor pool available to build new homes and apartment buildings.’
Here is the take on Harris’s plans:
‘The point would be to try to very rapidly encourage a burst of building. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, and Jim Parrott, a housing adviser under the Obama administration, are advising the Harris campaign on housing issues. They estimate that the United States has a shortfall of 3 million homes, and Harris is promising to close that gap…Michael Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said that “we don’t have tons of details” about Harris’ plans, but that the construction of homes was the right goal. “So much of it depends on how it is implemented,” he said.’
That’s it? Some AEI dude saying implementation matters. I guess the Five Stooges (Kudlow, Moore, Laffer, Antoni, and Koptis) were too busy making up BS about the macroeconomy!
A critical observation about housing that the construction of homes depend on immigrants and that without them there would be a reduction in numbers build and increase in cost.