23 thoughts on “Trump Prediction Market Meltdown: COB 1 August 2024

  1. pgl

    It seems that the rightwing National Review is even predicting Trump is going to lose (again) saying he is “too old”.

    1. Ivan

      Yes and he used half his campaign pressing the issue of “too old” as a criteria in this election. I guess he himself was too old to see it coming and got caught in his own snare.

  2. pgl

    BLS reports a meager 114 thousand increase in the payroll employment figure while the official unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. Part of this was a rise in the labor force participation rate but the employment to population ratio.

    I’ve been saying this for a while. The FED keeps talking about lowering interest rates. Damn it – just do it.

    1. Macroduck

      Uh Oh:

      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1r9kt

      The year-over-year change in employment in the household survey is just about zero, which is consistent with today’s recession reading from the Sahm rule. Payroll employment is up 2.5 million y/y, which is historically not consistent with a recession reading from the Sahm Rule. The divergence between surveys is really quite pesky.

      Nothing yet today from Claudia. On July 31, her last blog post was “CUT. It’s time.”

      1. pgl

        And from the Household Survey – employment to population ratio fell from 60.1% to 60.0%. Cut interest rates TODAY!

    2. Macroduck

      You would “force revisions” on them? Well, you’re nobody, but still, where do these “revisions” come from? Fox News? A finance bro chat room?

      And BLS isn’t a political entity, so “political problem”, huge or otherwise, is silly. You really need to learn how things work, from someplace other than where you got your current set of ideas.

  3. Ivan

    She is running an absolutely brilliant campaign. Trumps infantile name calling and his running mates unlimited unforced errors, are making it easier for Kamala. However, her choice of “not going back” as a campaign theme is energizing a lot of woman, and it is the perfect antidote that pulls the pants down on the “America Great Again” theme. Switching focus from the “scary” 2025 to the “weirdness” of her opponents is also a great move. The MAGA hats love to be seen as “scaring” their opponents, whereas being labelled “weird” takes a lot of air out of their ballon. In contrast to Biden she has less needs to scare her own side to go to the pools, she can energize them instead.

    1. Ithaqua

      Yes, she’s on the offensive, and isn’t responding to Trump’s “fake black” attack and others by going on the defensive, just making a comment and charging ahead. Can’t tell you how energizing that is! Make the election about the demented, racist old felon shouting at clouds!!

      1. Ivan

        A strong woman just brushing him off, must hurt deep down where he lives. She ain’t goner mud-wrestle with that pig.

  4. James

    Menzie – the Biden administration has had an amazing couple of weeks –
    Fentanyl Drug Lords Captured – Zambada and Joaquin Guzman Lopez, a son of El Chapo, face multiple charges in the U.S. for funneling huge quantities of fentanyl and other drugs to U.S. streets.
    Border Crossings Fall to Four Year Low – “unpublished DHS data shows that border encounters between ports of entry plummeted again to approximately 57,000 in July, according to an official familiar with the numbers. The data, which is preliminary until its official release in the coming days, was also leaked to CBS News and The New York Times. This is the fifth straight month of declining border crossings” https://newrepublic.com/article/184507/trump-attacks-kamala-wrecked-leaked-immigration-data (done mostly with steady diplomacy with Mexico)
    Biden administration to notify 25 million student loan borrowers of debt relief options – https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mass-email-borrowers-biden-administration-inches-closer-debt/story?id=112420785
    3 newly freed Americans are back on US soil after a landmark prisoner exchange with Russia – https://apnews.com/article/russia-gershkovich-whelan-d803e266cb4e60135ec5d668d684529f
    Jobs Created During Biden admin – Through July 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 43 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/08/comments-on-july-employment-report.html (IMO – the Fed needs to call a meeting and lower rates pronto – they are behind the curve.)
    What is Kamala Harris doing? – Promotes affordable child care, paid family leave and expanded health care – while protecting a woman’s access to healthcare and protecting your right to vote. https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-2024-policy-f93611f3e83adf48738bfb7aefc427f0
    What is Trump doing ? Sprouting off hate and racial division as he circles the drain to the sewer –

    1. Macroduck

      The last time I checked the polling-only presidential election map at 270-to-win, Democrats had only three combinations of swing states that could lead to a win. All required that Democrats win Pennsylvania. Today, there are possible 65 combinations. More states now fit the 270-to-win definition of “undecided” rather than “leaning Republican”. Pennsylvania is no longer “must win” for Democrats, though it’s still required in the vast majority of winning combinations.

      Among other things, this means Republicans have to spread campaign resources a lot farther – they have to campaign hard in 9 states as do Democrats, but the change in circumstance is allexpensive for Republicans. Ih, and you might want to add Florida tothe list, ’cause it’s looking slippery.

      The effort to prevent Biden from transferring his roughly $90 million in campaign funds to Harris now looks like a sideshow, what with Harris having raised her own $310 million. Trump raised $137.8 million in July, less than Harris did in her first week of campaigning. He has about $327 million on hand, which Harris can apparently match in a day or two.

      And she has that smile. That’s worth ten electoral votes, all by itself.

  5. Macroduck

    I’ve had a stray thought, and I’d welcome serious comment.

    If Kamala Harris has coattails, which seems likely with improved voter turnout, Democrats may win a bigger majority in the House than Republicans now have. That is likely to weaken progressives in two ways. First, House progressives’ votes would be less critical to passing legislation with a bigger House majority. Second, coattail House members would tend to be more conservative than today’s median House Democrat, having been elected from swing districts.

    So, a bit of irony, in that by swinging left numerically, the House could edge to the right legislatively. Not relative to today’s Republican controlled House, but relative to a meager majority reliant on every vote.

    Not that it would matter much unless Democrats overcome the bad math they face in Senate elections.

    1. Ivan

      It certainly becomes a lot easier to be house majority leader when the margins are bigger. However, you need 60 senators to get real legislation passed. Otherwise, it’s just what you manage to put into the budget resolutions. They did manage to get some good stuff into the IRA, but the main restraints was due to a right wing democrat (Manchin) being a swing vote (just like ObamaCare lost the public option due to Joe Lieberman). The hard core blocking of things are more a feature of right wing democrats (or right wing GOP when they are in charge), than leftists playing hardball.

  6. pgl

    Trump talks economics on Faux News with Maria the Bimbo:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trump-details-plans-to-turn-us-economy-around-we-might-as-well-be-the-leader/ar-BB1r6wZP?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c203f1a95ff74334a8c99e864864190a&ei=11

    Let’s see – cutting taxes brings in more revenue. OK! And he will reduce spending by cutting the “waste” in the Social Security system but that will not hurt (white) seniors. I guess the waste is benefit checks to the “black people” and Hispanics. MAGA!

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