As reported by the Rosstat, via TradingEconomics:
On an annualized basis, this is 14%. Y/Y inflation is 9.1%.
The nominal policy rate stands at 18%. If expected y/y inflation is 12.6%, then the real policy rate is about 5.4%
As reported by the Rosstat, via TradingEconomics:
On an annualized basis, this is 14%. Y/Y inflation is 9.1%.
The nominal policy rate stands at 18%. If expected y/y inflation is 12.6%, then the real policy rate is about 5.4%
“The nominal policy rate stands at 18%. If expected y/y inflation is 12.6%, then the real policy rate is about 5.4%”
Interesting source on expected inflation.
Oh wait it all contradicts Steve Koptis Nobel Prize winning model that puts the real rate at 2% regardless of any other evidence so expected inflation must be 16%. Because Steve Koptis said so and he insists he is the expert on everything.
I been called “sexist” on this blog, by many commenters here (I think Prof Chinn entertained this notion that I was “sexist” for awhile, maybe now even). Uhm, who “called it” that Nabiullina was/is a sharpy?? Who called it??? This “sexist” guy sitting her typing this comment,
She’s playing the poker hand handed to her (maybe a bad hand) , masterfully.
Russia is a candidate for inflationary recession. Here’s the latest BBG Russia economic outlook:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/08/09/russia-braces-for-war-driven-economy-to-run-out-of-steam/#:~:text=(Bloomberg)%20%2D%2D%20Russia's%20overheating%20economy,have%20bolstered%20growth%20until%20now.
Just as real rates rise, the real economy is less shielded from the effect of rates. That’s on top of all the other problems.
Based on what economic model??? Would you entertain it’s not a “typical” economic model?? If there’s a way to do it, “pull it off” Nabiullina will do it friend.
Like all central bankers, Nabiullina’s job is balance. Maintain it when the economy is in balance, get back to it when the economy is out of balance. Whether that balance is yucky isn’t up to her.
She’s part of a team. She can pitch, sure, but the rest can’t field, hit or run bases.
Putin sending 100,000s to die and be wounded in the Donbas (now approaching 600,000) and converting an estimated 30% of the Russian economy to produce artillery shells and tanks is a very stupid and criminal action – I predict that Russia will fall out of the top G15 countries as measured by GDP in coming years.
Menzie – I have to point out that Harris/Walz talk about the climate crisis in their stump speeches and the need for the next generation to migrate and adapt to climate change. When does the NY Times do an in-depth look at Donald “Climate Change is a Hoax” Trump’s climate change policies? – oh – that’s right – Trump doesn’t have any policy positions. (So we just get the Haberman articles that Trump is trying to get his campaign back “on track” – whatever the heck that means.) Meanwhile the MAGA/GOP political leadership thinks climate change is a hoax and plan to eliminate any spending on migration and adaptation to climate change – https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/05/climate-change-denial-congress
I would add that the Republicans/MAGA are anti-science as well – https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/08/31-of-republicans-say-vaccines-are-more-dangerous-than-diseases-they-prevent/ (The GOP says you can go to the local farm supply store and treat your respiratory sickness by applying bag balm.)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/transcript-sen-jd-vance-on-face-the-nation-with-margaret-brennan-aug-11-2024/ar-AA1oBrM9?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=459938d77bb54b08960da8b5fa06c248&ei=9
JD Vance on Face the Nation. This interview started off on the medical abortion issue. While I thought Vance could not be more stupid and dishonest than Trump, he was. Check it out just for giggles.