The Great Replacement “Theory” * Comes to Economics at Heritage

Heritage Foundation’s    EJ Antoni writes on X (August 2):

Over the last year, native-born Americans have LOST 1.2 million jobs while foreign-born employment has increased 1.3 million; we’re just swapping out American workers at this point, not growing the pie for everyone…

 

He provides this graph:

Source: EJ Antoni/Twitter.

I think Dr. Antoni is using July to July changes.

I would not fault someone for using official series from the US government; however, I would fault someone for citing calculations without context, including well-known caveats about what we know now about concerns regarding the population controls currently used by BLS. For a person who is skeptical about the relevance of US government statistics (see here), this omission is somewhat surprising.

As Dr. Wendy Edelberg at Hamilton Project/Brookings has been documenting in various documents, the BLS population controls used might be missing a chunk of the population changes; the CBO has also some information in this respect (which I have used in my adjustment to civilian employment). She and Dr. Tara Watson provide this graph of changes (January to January, but you get the idea).

Source: Edelberg and Watson (2024).

While the cumulative change in foreign born employment is greater than that for native born, it’s still the case that cumulative native born employment is positive, contra Dr. Antoni.

* Wikipedia entry.

 

 

 

68 thoughts on “The Great Replacement “Theory” * Comes to Economics at Heritage

  1. pgl

    The MAGA crowd not only lies about everything. They don’t seem to be able to coordinate their lies. Trump last night told us that those new foreign borns were the “nonproductive” class as if they were not taking jobs. I would ask Stephen Miller to clarify all of this but not only does he lie about everything – he screams his lies VERY LOUDLY. I’m afraid my ears are too sensitive to endure any more of that.

    1. Optimist but Sceptic

      It’s the classical Schrödinger immigrant: stealing good jobs and a burden on social security all at once! This anti-immigrant discourse is not unique to the US.

  2. pgl

    “Over the last year, native-born Americans have LOST 1.2 million jobs while foreign-born employment has increased 1.3 million; we’re just swapping out American workers at this point, not growing the pie for everyone”

    If this were true, employment would have grown by only 100 thousand over this 12 month period. Now I had thought only one person on the planet would make such a stupid comment but it seems Steve Koptis has a good buddy here.

  3. Ivan

    Where are they placing “black jobs” in the dichotomy of “Foreign jobs” vs. Native born jobs”.

    As far as I know jobs are jobs and the question is about employment. Demographic changes show a reduction in birth rates below the replacement rate – being compensated for by immigration. Native borns are heavily tilted towards the retirement age, whereas immigrants tend to be young working age people. Not a surprise that growth in the labor force is more heavy tilted towards immigrants. They should be happy that there are foreigners willing to come in and take the dirty jobs of changing the diapers on old bedridden people like their parents (and they themselves may soon become).

    1. pgl

      Loved the opening of your comment. After all immigrants from Latin American are taking away Hispanic jobs!

  4. Macroduck

    OK, let’s assume that Antoni lives in an echo chamber, where the discussion of population controls has not penetrated. Given his audience and employer, I think this may be a realistic assumption, and I don’t mean that as a compliment. Putting aside his ignorance, can he justify the conclusion he has drawn, based on his math? No, he cannot, not if he has any familiarity with readily available BLS data.

    Oh, and anyone who makes an economic argument based on Covid-era data who doesn’t take account of the impact of Covid is – I’m getting tired of having to point this out – either ignorant or dishonest.

    Prime age labor force participation fell sharply in response to Covid and has recovered sharply, particularly in recent quarters:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060

    Despite that recovery, the native-born labor force remained lower in Q4 of 2023 than in Q4 of 2019, the last quarter before Covid became a factor:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1s5sh

    Comparing like periods is necessary because this series is not seasonally adjusted.

    That decline in the participation rate indicates not that native-born workers were being “replaced”, but that workers in general were staying home by choice. Not that it was a pleasant choice, but a choice, nonetheless.

    Until the last couple of quarters, the unemployment rate for native-born workers has been too low to allow a credible claim that native-born workers were being displaced by immigrants:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1s5tn

    During the last couple of quarters, the unemployment rate among foreign-born workers has risen a bit more than among native-born, further discrediting claims of “replacement”.

    Antoni simply doesn’t have a case, even if we allow him to ignore the population control problem. This is what he does with a PhD?

    I’m worked up about this, because of the massive ignorance represented in the “replacement” argument. Or massive dishonesty. Quite probably both. You know what happens when I get worked up…I’ll be back in a while.

    1. Macroduck

      OK, I’m back. I warned you.

      So there’s this demographic transition underway, and not just in the U.S. but throughout most of the developed world. The Census Bureau anticipates that the U.S. population will begin to shrink in the latter half of this century, even with immigration:

      https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-projections.html

      I think this is the best news there could be. Your ideology may differ.

      Here’s the picture, through 2023:

      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1s5KF

      Note the acceleration of decline from around 2016, before Covid arrived.

      Population growth is already slow enough that California, Illinois, Hawaii, Louisiana, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania and West Virginia lost population from 2022 to 2023. That’s eight out of fifty states, including four really big ones.

      It’s not just the U.S. where population is expected to begin falling by the end of this century. It’s a global trend. And it’s not just one model making this prediction:

      https://www.visualcapitalist.com/when-will-the-global-population-reach-its-peak/

      In fact, these models all assume a stabilization in birth rates, though at slightly different rates, when the trend in recent decade has been downward. Census an the UN have been adjusting their population forecasts, U.S. and global, respectively, downward over time – no saying they won’t have to do it again.

      In order for native-born populations to stabilize, a fertility rate of around 2.1 children per woman is required. The U.S. rate has been below the 2.1 child replacement rate since the mid-1970s.

      Here’s a picture of the total fertility rate (similar to the simple birth rate, used when local data are iffy) around the world:

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate

      Outside of Africa, only a few countries have TFRs high enough to prevent native-born population shrinkage.

      When Trump or Antoni or fraidy-cat white supremacists get in a cold sweat over being “replaced”, they’re not thinking past the day after tomorrow. Where are these replacements going to come from?

      A smaller human population amounts to salvation from ourselves, if we can just take advantage of it. If we can avoid destroying so much that even a smaller population must be miserable. If we can think ahead, anticipate a world with fewer people an prepare for it, rather than run around acting like frightened children.

      1. Willie

        That demographic shift is well underway in Asia and Europe already. Those who don’t want immigrants from places that are still growing, meaning Africa mostly, are fools. Last I checked, India was still growing, but much slower, and Latin America is on its way to a shrinking population as well.

        Oh, well. You can’t expect a MAGA to do facts unless they are alternative facts.

        1. Macroduck

          But nobody has told low-information voters about coming population decline, and they mostly hear lies about immigrants’ effect on Social Security, health care, crime and voting. So “deport millions of immigrants'” becomes a viable political slogan. Yuck.

          1. baffling

            if you want the us fertility rate to increase, the approach is not a war on women (ie abortion and birth control bans, welfare reductions, eliminating snap and school lunch programs, etc). that will not sway an increase in family size. what will help is a better focus on child rearing benefits. improve maternal and paternal leave. improve child tax credits. improve access to quality day care and health care. address the cost of raising a child. address the cost of educating a child. if you do that, families will grow. if not, you will continue to see many zero and one child households. parents want to make sure they can give their children a better life than the parent had. if a parent is not convinced they can accomplish that, the family will not grow. republicans need to stop their war on families, and look for ways to support those families better.

    2. pgl

      I noted the other day that Antoni got his degree from something called Northern Illinois University and I even listed their very modest sized economics faculty. Something tells me that no one there is a labor economist. If there is a labor economist there, Antoni never took his/her class.

      The man is clearly unqualified. But everyone Trump relies on for economics advice is completely unqualified.

      1. Macroduck

        Antoni claims he studied labor economics in grad school. That a big reason I go for “dishonest” over “ignorant” in his case. Either he’s lying about labor studies or he’s knowingly lying about what’s going on in the economy. There’s no third choice.

        1. pgl

          He did attend a 3rd rate school with a small faulty. I presented the names of the faculty. Whether any of them were a labor economists – who knows. Whether any of them have published – who knows. But we know from Antoni’s writings he is worse at labor economics than even Steve Koptis.

    3. pgl

      I think Civilian Labor Force Level – Native Born is a household survey figure. Any such figure has that population control issue.

      BTW bringing up prime age participation rate is important as it seems there are some people over 65 that are voluntarily retiring. Maybe Antoni should retire as he clearly is senile.

    1. pgl

      “This poem is composed entirely of actual quotes from George Bush.”

      Some 20 years ago – I thought W. was the goofiest President ever. But then came Trump.

    1. Macroduck

      Well, equity evaporates before default. Debt gets a haircut before suppliers. Suppliers are stiffed before labor. Broadly speaking, of course.

      So when burning through money like a California suburb gets creditors worried, say in early November, then… doing some quick math here…carry the 2…divide by insolvent…Oh! I get zero. Goose egg. Nada. Zilch.

      This can’t be right. Someone check my math.

      1. pgl

        If Trump Media had any assets, this fight over them might be interesting. But this has to be the most worthless enterprise in the history of time.

        1. Ivan

          Their asset is Trump and he just bailed on them (moving to Twitter) in a desperate attempt to get attention – and turn around the election. I think Trump can begin selling his shares in about 5 weeks. But he would have to go slow on that to avoid a complete crash.

          1. baffling

            you underestimate his skill as a con man. I will bet he is able to sell to all the rubes out there. he will make up a story that convinces them to buy his shares. take rick Stryker for example. since he is short Harris (and losing big time), my bet he is soooooo long trump. investment guru extraordinaire.

    2. Not Trampis

      since it is not making money and more importantly not expected to make any money then the answer is lower

    3. joseph

      It will be interesting to see what happens when the insider lock-up period expires on September 25. Will Trump try to cash out and run or will he go for broke and hang on to the bitter end?

      Trump will have a hard time cashing out. He owns 60% of the company shares, 115 million out of 190 million total outstanding. The average daily trading volume is only 7 million shares so even if Trump tries to cash out 1% of his holding it will become immediately obvious to the market and the price will crash. And then he has to file a public SEC Form 4 disclosing any transactions within two days just to make his exit attempt perfectly clear.

  5. joseph

    What? Foreign born people cannot be Americans? Only native born citizens count?

    This is the sort of racist, nativist, anti-immigrant sewage we’ve come to expect from Trump and Heritage 2025.

    1. pgl

      Well if one were born in Europe as a white person – Trump wants you to move here. Now if you have darker skin then you must leave even if your great grandparents were born here. MAGA.

  6. pgl

    This is a must see:

    Exonerated Central Park Five councillor to speak at Democratic convention – report
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/exonerated-central-park-five-councillor-to-speak-at-democratic-convention-report/ar-AA1oK1ap?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=f97a1004ffcc4aebbc47fe7844142544&ei=9

    Yusef Salaam, a New York City councillor who was wrongly jailed for a notorious rape in the city’s Central Park, has reportedly been invited to address next week’s Democratic national convention in Chicago in a move that could highlight Donald Trump’s key role in the case and history of racially charged rhetoric. Salaam was one of the “Central Park Five”, a group of Black and Hispanic teenagers who were convicted of attacking and raping Trisha Meili, a 28-year-old investment banker, while she was jogging in April 1989.

    He could be joined at the convention by other members of the group, according to Semafor, which broke the story but said Salaam’s appearance had yet to be confirmed. Salaam served seven years but was later exonerated and released along with the other four after a convicted serial rapist and murderer, Matias Reyes, admitted to the crime, a confession confirmed by DNA evidence.

    The case became a major cause célèbre, largely due to an intervention by Trump, then an up-and-coming property magnate, who took out full-page adverts in four New York papers calling for the return of the death penalty at a time when the crime had captured media attention. The five defendants, who were all minors, had already been arrested, paraded in public and had their names and addresses published when Trump took out the advert.

  7. Macroduck

    Off topic – China’s bond market:

    https://www.ft.com/content/3bc293c7-7f3b-4aed-affe-ae5cca5e496a

    China’s bond market is on fire. Ten-year yields had fallen to 2.1% before bouncing to 2.2% today, after the PBOC told regional banks to renege on bond purchases. That 2.1% yield was the lowest in at least a quarter century.

    No need to guess about the cause of this rally. Other available assets have been a disaster lately. The economy can’t seem to get out of bed. Households are cutting back on consumption, so have more savings. There are probably subtleties I don’t know about, but that’s just plumbing. The large forces operating here are well known.

    The FT reports that China’s government is worried about financial stability, which makes sense, but goes on to suggest China is fumbling its stabilization effort:

    “Fretting about bond yields, however, is a strange way to tackle financial stability. If investment funds are abusing leverage, then regulate them; if banks are gambling on duration risk, then examiners have ample powers to stop them. To demand a particular level of bond yields points to a different scenario: that the market is behaving rationally, and Chinese government bonds are not overpriced, but the PBoC cannot stomach what that implies.”

    For those of us outside of China, the risk here is that a financial instability can spill out of China, but perhaps more important is that financial instability can reinforce economic weakness in the world’s second largest economy.

  8. Macroduck

    By the way, the latest dive in Chinese interest rates started right after the big economic policy meeting in mid-July, which produced no substantial remedies for China’s economic problems. This is reminiscent of Liz Trust and Kwasi Kwarteng unveiling their budget fantasy.

  9. Macroduck

    OK, OK, I’ll stop after this.

    USAToday is hyping its latest poll in Florida, in which Harris trails Trump by 5 ppts- Trump 47%, Harris 42%. The hype is that this puts Harris “within striking distance” of winning Florida. One could just as easily write that this is a comfortable margin for Trump, but that’s not “news”.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/08/13/kamala-harris-trump-florida-polls/74770114007/

    Democrats have been working Florida, rather like Ukraine is working Kursk – make ’em defend their own turf. Fact is, if Harris wins Florida, she won’t need Pennsylvania. That said, if she wins Florida, Pennsylvania’s in the bag and she’ll be holding her breath to see what happens in Texas.

    That’s all, I promise.

    1. baffling

      I don’t know about Pennsylvania, but there is quite a bit of voter suppression effort in Texas and Florida. in particular, Texas is run by a bunch of old white men smoking in the back room. and they have no problem with threats and intimidation to keep power where it currently resides. in an honest election, texas is a swing state. but nothing honest about texas right now. the rest of the country should take notice. talk about stealing a national election-that is happening in texas right now.

  10. pgl

    Teamsters’ Black caucus defies leadership with Harris endorsement
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/teamsters-black-caucus-defies-leadership-with-harris-endorsement/ar-AA1oKyJR?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=28661fa0af09423fafa26ca9aa476d32&ei=14

    Vice President Kamala Harris has won the endorsement of the National Black Caucus of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters — even as the larger union withholds its endorsement. Caucus members voted unanimously Tuesday to endorse Harris at a conference in Las Vegas. Publicly backing Harris risks pushback in a union with a history of retaliation. The caucus, known as TNBC, praised Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz for their “unwavering commitment to workers and their families” in a statement released after the vote. “Their records reflect a deep dedication to advancing labor rights and supporting working-class Americans,” it said. Labor organizations rushed to support Harris after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race. But the Teamsters have been a notable hold out.

    President Sean O’Brien said the union plans to endorse a presidential candidate after both conventions and has invited all the candidates to sit for interviews. Harris, who was invited last month when she became the presidential candidate, has not yet had her interview. TNBC Chair James Curbeam said in the statement that the caucus based its decision on former President Donald Trump’s actions over both his career in politics and business.

      1. pgl

        The Trump campaign called the UAW charges a political orchestration by “Democrat special interest bosses.” “This frivolous lawsuit is a shameless political stunt intended to erode President Trump’s overwhelming support among America’s workers,” said Trump campaign Senior Advisor Brian Hughes in a statement. “President Trump strengthened our economy and delivered results on behalf of the forgotten men and women of America, and he will do it again when he is re-elected on November 5.”

        Ah yes – the deep state. What a pack of clowns. Quick – someone ask Vance who pretends to be pro-labor about all of this. Did I hear this right? Of all the proposals that might help workers, only 4 Senators voted against each and every one of that. One of those Senators was Vance.

    1. joseph

      Teamster President Sean O’Brien seems to have belatedly seen the light. After Trump’s chat with Musk last night he said “Firing workers for organizing, striking, and exercising their rights as Americans is economic terrorism.”

      1. pgl

        Since I chose not to listen to this interview, I missed all of the anti-union cheerleading by these two jacka$$es.

      2. pgl

        RNC Speaker Slams Trump’s Comments to Musk: ‘Economic Terrorism’
        https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rnc-speaker-slams-trump-s-comments-to-musk-economic-terrorism/ar-AA1oNv0f?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=9730d82ecc3e4594850474f50c53c25e&ei=13

        “I look at what you do,” Trump told Musk, laughing. “You walk in and you just say, ‘You wanna quit?’ They go on strike – I won’t mention the name of the company – but they go on strike and you say, ‘That’s OK. You’re all gone. You’re all gone. So, every one of you is gone.'”

        Trump seems to think union busting is funny. Someone ask JD Vance if he agrees.

      3. Moses Herzog

        The obvious question regarding O’Brien is “Why is the leader of a large labor union flirting with a political candidate who is strongly anti-Union??”

        I’d love to know the answer to that one. And I’d love to see (if we have ANY real journalists left in America) some journalist stick a live microphone in O’Brien’s face, with cameras present, and ask him.

        1. pgl

          AppHarvest!

          Check out the links to this in my comments. Vance is very anti-labor. But at least he had an ally in Martha Stewart.

      4. joseph

        I’m guessing that at the time of the Republican convention it looked like Trump was going to win so O’Brien was hedging his bet. But now that he has called Trump literally a terrorist, I don’t think he can back down. I think O’Brien’s hedge was stupid but I can see why he might have done it.

        Teamsters have a history of hedging. They endorsed Reagan twice and GHW Bush once. This was disastrous as Reagan ushered in the era of union decline. There’s a lot teamsters for whom racism and anti-immigrant anxiety “trumps” union solidarity. But the demographics of the Teamsters union is rapidly changing and becoming more diverse.

  11. baffling

    I think it is time to move the news cycle back to the qanon garbage that maga is so prone to absorb. simply continue to identify the weird things the trump administration supports. qanon is deeply entrenched in the trump administration and maga mindset. just want to remind everybody about all the weird and creepy trump positions.

    1. Moses Herzog

      You didn’t forget Alex Jones did you?? Jones was deep into the Jan 6 up to his eardrums, and the QAnon, and I suspect Jones had a large part not only in the Jan 6 sedition speeches, but also in the “call to arms” of getting the large crowd to show up to begin with. It was the large crowds that gave them their irrational bravado. “Madness of crowds” seems understatement when discussing Jan 6. Jones was key to that mass-scale messaging/brain-washing of bumpkins like Bruce Hall/PeakTrader/CoRev types.

      I just hope our holy and godly Rick Stryker doesn’t lose too much money on this. Shall we put a hat out on the table and start up a charitable collection for Stryker?? I’m willing to give 2 wads of pocket lint for Stryker. Who else will join me to help Stryker??

  12. pgl

    Trump must think his supporters are dumber than rocks (well I bet Bruce Hall falls for this):

    Trump Releases Self-Described ‘Perfect’ Audio Of Musk Chat After Many Claim He Slurred
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-releases-self-described-perfect-audio-of-musk-chat-after-many-claim-he-slurred/ar-AA1oMLGx?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ce7d6e60fd354e8890629d8d68286ef7&ei=10

    Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday released what he described as a “perfect” recording of his live chat with Elon Musk on X, formerly Twitter, in an apparent effort to address comments about him sounding like he was slurring words during the two-hour event. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump attributed the odd-sounding parts of Monday’s live discussion to technical issues. “Unfortunately, because of the complexity of modern day equipment, and cellphone technology, my voice was, in certain areas, somewhat different and strange,” Trump said. “Therefore, we have put out an actual, and perfect, recording of the conversation. ENJOY!!!” The so-called “interview” was conducted remotely on Spaces, the live audio platform within X. Trump spoke to the billionaire from a room in his Mar-a-Lago estate, while Musk said he was at a friend’s ranch in Wyoming. The latest version of the discussion Trump has uploaded and pinned to the top of his X account is about 55 minutes shorter than the original recording, and Trump’s voice can be heard more clearly.

    Wait – the original discussion was 2 hours long but the edited version is only 55 minutes. Hey Donald – what version of AI did you use to clear up your slurring?

    1. joseph

      “Wait – the original discussion was 2 hours long but the edited version is only 55 minutes.”

      Maybe they just speeded it up so now he sounds like Mickey Mouse.

      1. Ivan

        Trump will speak at a rally in North Carolina today. Listen carefully. Will he lisp, or sound like Mickey Mouse. Maybe it actually is Mickey in a Donald suit – with the voice slowed down. That ear healed remarkably fast…… maybe the real Trump is dead and Mickey has taken over. Will he say no weird things at all ? – that would be weird (and raise my suspicions). Maybe he will be his same old senile self, blabbering along as previously – would that maybe just be a ploy. I am just asking Qestions, ANONybody else want to question what we are seeing with out own lying eyes? Did y’all see that rabbit going straight down that hole?

        1. Moses Herzog

          “Did y’all see that rabbit going straight down that hole?”

          You have already sinned in sullying the good name of Mickey Mouse. Keep Bugs Bunny out of this.

  13. pgl

    Inflation is low. Cut interest rates now!

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
    Consumer Price Index Summary
    CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – JULY 2024

    The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, after declining 0.1 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

    The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in July, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the monthly increase in the all items index. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining in the two preceding months. The index for food increased 0.2 percent in July, as it did in June. The food away from home index rose 0.2 percent over the month, and the food at home index increased 0.1 percent.

    The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in July, after rising 0.1 percent the preceding month. Indexes which increased in July include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, education, recreation, and personal care. The indexes for used cars and trucks, medical care, airline fares, and apparel were among those that decreased over the month.

    The all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending July, the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months and was the smallest 12-month increase in that index since April 2021. The energy index increased 1.1 percent for the 12 months ending July. The food index increased 2.2 percent over the last year.

  14. pgl

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL
    Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average

    Over the past 3 months, this index has increased by a mere 0.1%. OK, annualize it. Inflation is less than 0.5%.

    Of course Trump and Vance will lie about this and that’s all the viewers of Faux News will hear.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Musk has a trans child. This reminds me of Dick Cheney’s lesbian daughter. Gosh, Elon, be a Dad and have a relationship with your own child or be a douchebag?? “What to do” Elon?? “What to do” Dad or Douche??

      1. baffling

        i think we can all agree a real vet is one who does not disparage fellow vets. one who respects others who served in uniform. wouldn’t you agree? now this is different from trump, who apparently gets to determine who is black or jewish or indian.

        1. pgl

          Thanks for pointing out the obvious to little Anonymous who reminds me way too much of some of our previous right wing trolls. Worthless little coward he be.

      2. pgl

        You certainly are neither a vet nor real. No – you are generally fake and certainly a draft dodger.

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ Ivan: You purposely omitted me as a candidate for a regular by-line at Heritage!?!?!?! This is hurtful. Very hurtful. It’s my excessive overuse of fart jokes isn’t it?? Go ahead, tell me, I can take it straight.

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