With the CPI release, we have new July observations for 3 series.
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), PPI core (red), and PCE core (green), per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4. Source: BLS, BEA, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
Defenders of Vance are claiming he left AppHarvest before the horrific working conditions came to light. Let’s say for a second this defense is true. Well – Walz announced he would retire from miliary services before any rumors of his unit going to Iraq. So timing is everything – right? But wait – Vance remained as an investor. And this story:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/other/grim-bombshell-cnn-report-links-jd-vance-to-nightmare-work-conditions/ar-AA1oIwjV?ocid=BingNewsVerp
“Complaints filed with the U.S. Department of Labor and a Kentucky regulator between 2020 and 2023 show that workers alleged they were given insufficient water breaks and weren’t provided adequate safety gear. Some workers said they suffered heat exhaustion or injuries, though state inspectors did not find violations,” CNN reported…Vance stepped down from the company in 2021, but remained an investor, CNN reported. Last year, as he became a senator, it was “mired in lawsuits filed by shareholders angry over its plummeting stock price and allegations of fraud,” according to CNN.
Timing is everything and the Vance team is lying about this too!
h/t Fran Blanche
https://www.nj.com/cape-may-county/2024/08/jersey-shore-message-in-a-bottle-could-be-the-oldest-in-the-world.html
While this bottle was traveling it added 0% to energy inflation.
Jesse Ventura has been defending Walz’ military service. Thought that was mildly eye-catching. Ventura not exactly a flaming liberal.
Ventura is a good soldier. As he noted – Vance is scum.
Trump has lost his mind as he is terrified at the crowd sizes during Harris rallies!
Trump amplifies repurposed hoax about paid actors at Harris rally
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-amplifies-repurposed-hoax-about-paid-actors-at-harris-rally/ar-AA1oOk3u?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e0a0e32fe5de4ba2a02d77b88a0fa303&ei=10
That makes you want to go to a rally.
https://jabberwocking.com/dont-listen-to-j-d-vance-things-are-fine/
J.D. Vance says no one can afford a car anymore. As usual, this kind of doom mongering is wrong. It’s true that car prices spiked during the pandemic, but here’s the long-term picture … Car affordability goes up and down based on various factors: recessions (2007), factory problems (Fukushima), supply chain problems (COVID), changes in taste (SUVs vs. sedans), and so forth. But the trendline has been dead flat for 30+ years and new car prices are already starting to correct for their pandemic spike.
The graph shows the cost of a new car relative to household income which varies a little but is not that high today. As we used to say back in Georgia, Vance just fell off a turnip truck. Yea – JD, I bet you have been hearing that all of your life.
A Trump supporter asked him a great question. This man is having to help all of his kids to pay for rent so I wanted to know how Trump would reign in housing costs. Trump – “drill baby drill”. Yea Trump is mentally deranged.
Oh yea – Trump also claimed bacon prices were sky high. Funny – I cannot live in a package of bacon but I bet JD Vance can.
Nearly on topic – Taylor rule readings:
Standard settings for the Atlanta Fed’s Taylor rule utility spit out funds rate targets between 3.4% and 4.7%, vs the current effective funds rate of 5.33%:
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/taylor-rule
So monetary policy is tight, however a reasonable person might look at it. Monetary policy works with a lag, so tight conditions will continue for a few quarters, even as the Fed cuts rates. Priced-in expectations are for the funds rate to be around 4 3% at year end, still in the upper half of the neutral range churned out by the Taylor rule utility. At which time lagged effects of tight policy will still be with us for a few quarters.
The Fed is on its way to engineering inflation undershoot while the Sahm rule is indicating recession.
This is the Fed of the 1980s, before the days of opportunistic disinflation and the growth experiment. Good thing they wear nice suits, so everybody thinks they’re wise and stuff.
I was wondering how Vance would respond to the Trump/Musk celebration of union busting. The little weasel came through!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/vance-says-trump-s-comments-on-firing-striking-workers-were-about-x-employees/ar-AA1oP2Ko?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=1b7da0ad391849858fbcaffd4ed13f34&ei=10
Vice presidential candidate JD Vance defended Donald Trump’s comments about firing striking workers during a rally in Michigan, saying Wednesday that Trump wasn’t talking about terminating autoworkers in the state but instead “firing the employees of Twitter.” “He was talking about firing the employees of Twitter who use their power to censor American citizens,” Vance told the crowd in in rural Kent County. “Those people ought to be fired. If you censor Americans from exercising their First Amendment rights, you absolutely should be fired. Donald Trump is exactly right.”
The man is a lying joke. Sort of reminds me of Bruce Hall. Hey JD – you do know that Tesla discourages union activity I trust.
“Vice presidential candidate JD Vance defended Donald Trump’s comments about firing striking workers during a rally in Michigan, saying Wednesday that Trump wasn’t talking about terminating autoworkers in the state but instead “firing the employees of Twitter.”
Well, that’s a lie because employees of Twitter were not unionized so had no method of organizing a strike. And the Twitter employees never went on strike as an excuse for firing. They were simply mass laid off to cut costs.
So what company was Trump talking about. Well, as usual, he won’t say but we do know that Musk’s Tesla company was cited by the NLRB for illegally firing employees for union organizing activity.
Vance is demonstrating once again that he is a dignity wraith willing to debase himself backing up any Trump lie — just like Rick Stryker and his inaugural crowd sizes.
Thanks for saying that. Vance lies even more than Trump – which I would have thought was impossible.
How risky is Trump Media stock? Yahoo/finance’s estimate of its CAPM equity beta is almost 6. I don’t think I have ever seen a beta nearly that high.
Game Stop’s beta 1.3. Twitter, 0.54.
There are stocks with higher betas that Orange Social, but they’re mostly dreck or rockets. Orange Social isn’t a rocket, at $23.82, down 0.4% today.
“Trump amplifies repurposed hoax about paid actors at Harris rally.”
As usual, according to Trump’s Mirror, any accusation he makes can be reliably be assumed to be a projection of his own guilty acts. Because he did it, he assumes everyone else is just as guilty.
Remember the famous gold escalator entrance at the Trump Tower where he first announced his candidacy for President in 2015? Turns out the cheering crowd were paid actors from an NYC actors temp agency. Actors were paid $50 for 3 hours work. This is documented in his mandatory FEC filing which came out many months later.
But the kicker is that, as usual, Trump tried to stiff the agency, refusing to pay until the agency filed a complaint with the FEC. Same cheap grifter as always.
I trust you Joseph, but can you give a link on that NYC 2015 story?? Thanks ahead of time.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/07/crowd-hiring-politics-campaign-2016/399002/
1-800-HIRE-A-CROWD
The business of generating fake enthusiasm, from flash mobs to the campaign trail
By Dan Schneider
He could pay only $16.67 an hour and still tried to weasel out of it. Damn – what a cheap a$$.
The rule when dealing with Trump is always get the money up front. Turns out the facility in Asheville, NC where Trump is speaking today demanded and got $82,000 in advance for use of the auditorium and other city support services. Trump has a reputation for stiffing local communities for unpaid services. Other places in Texas, South Carolina and Montana also have unpaid bills. El Paso has one of the largest, $500,000, for public safety, maintenance and transit costs associated with a 2019 campaign visit that is still unpaid.
Same cheap grifter as always.
https://www.ktsm.com/news/city-continues-to-seek-payment-from-trumps-2019-campaign-visit/
https://publicintegrity.org/politics/donald-trump-police-cities-bills-maga-rallies/
https://www.thedailybeast.com/this-time-erie-mayor-wants-cash-up-front-for-trump-rally
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/city-leaders-trump-pay-your-bills-help-us-fight-coronavirus-n1184646
https://wisconsinwatch.org/2024/07/wisconsin-trump-biden-campaign-presidential-election-costs/
https://scdailygazette.com/2024/05/17/trump-campaign-still-owes-coastal-winthrop-tab-paid-in-full-public-records-show/
“However, according to the most recent records provided by Coastal Carolina University, the Trump campaign has not yet paid the college in Conway an outstanding balance of $37,410 related to a Feb. 10 rally on its campus.
The Trump campaign has not responded to the Gazette’s questions about the tab.
Before the rally, the university gave the campaign a cost estimate of $47,633. And the Trump campaign paid half ($23,817) as a deposit. After the event, Coastal Carolina calculated the actual total cost as $61,226, leaving the $37,410 balance, according to a document obtained through a public records request.
“As of May 15, 2024, the balance due has not been paid,” a university spokesperson said in an email Thursday to the Gazette.
The bulk of the total, at just over $51,000, was classified as labor costs, which included $28,360 for city and campus police, as well as almost $4,300 for meals and $5,000 for clean-up. A two-day rental of the student recreation center and a parking lot accounted for another $5,000. The college charged $5,100 for what’s dubbed “resources,” including use of tables, chairs, barricades, tents, arena floor covering, digital message boards and internet access.”
It’s interesting to me that we have jackasses like Bruce Hall always whining about their taxes. Apparently, Bruce-ie baby thinks money grows on trees and all the police security and personnel for donald trump’s MAGA rallies is “free”. I would tell all municipalities that want to host trump, GET YOUR MONEY UP FRONT~~OR DON’T WASTE PEOPLES’ TIME OR JOURNALISTS’ TIME BITCHING THAT YOU GOT SHAFTED OUT OF THOUSANDS OF TAXPAYER FUNDS BY donald trump
A bit of inside baseball about Wisconsin politics – the WI GOP legislature has been putting up a record number of WI constitutional amendments as they see themselves losing their stranglehold on power – the WI GOP puts these ballot initiatives up in off season primary elections – which are typically low voter turnouts – but the WI GOP miscalculated this time – the WI Dems got out record turnout to defeat these WIGOP power grabs – https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/14/2263074/-Republican-Referenda-Go-Down-in-Wisconsin (digging into the county level results and using a No vote as a proxy for Dem voters gives me hope that WI voters statewide are ready to reject the MAGA/oppressive extremist GOP – also something I seldom see mentioned in national media about Wisconsin – we have redrawn Assembly and State Senate maps – so for the first time in 15 years – we have competitive maps again- what?? – maybe we can finally take federal ACA funding? maybe we could finally legalize cannabis? maybe we could protect access to reproductive healthcare? maybe we could properly fund schools? maybe we could be as progressive as Minnesota? Forward! Wisconsin – vote Democratic Party!)
If WI GOPers can use constitutional amendments couldn’t the democrats do the same?
Abortion has been extremely successful as a ballot issues, because the population in red states show solid support for Roe vs Wade, even as it’s a critical GOP base red line issue. It is very hard to erase all those years of brain washing morons with “BABY KILLING” rhetoric.
Could this be some of the reason why so much of the older set is going with donald trump?? I guess Georgetown Jerome wants more MAGA, ‘cuz he ain’t changing those rates:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1sixn
I think Georgetown Jerome thinks if he does nothing on rates until 2025, he keeps his job no matter what administration he gets, to hell with democracy.
Speaking of housing, Harris has a plan to lower rents. In the short-term use price controls. For the longer-term, build more affordable housing.
Trump was asked about his plan … drill, baby drill? Maybe Koptis can help Vance explain WTF Trump meant.
Sounds good, but who builds more affordable housing? Would that work in San Francisco or New York City where housing costs are high? Whence the land to build that low cost housing (not much in San Fran)? Would the housing be perpetually subsidized by taxpayers and, if so, why would they want to do so if the land can be more productive for the city and tax revenues? If you can’t pay enough for the market prices of housing, should you be there? If yes, would that apply to the Hamptons where our former POTUS lives?
Housing in a specific location is not a right. But most urban areas have some low-cost, subsidized housing. The question is: should someone who has made a large investment in real estate be limited by government for the benefit of someone else? Or should governments, with the approval of their voters, purchase/build low income housing specifically for those who insist on living in a specific location, and if so how many such locations should be created?
https://affordablehousingonline.com/#google_vignette
https://affordablehousingonline.com/housing-search/California/San-Francisco
The dumbest of all Trump’s trolls has resurfaced. Gee Brucie – you certainly cut and run after your Swift Boating attempt got slammed. But back to your Trumpian plan to drill baby drill for affordable housing.
‘Sounds good, but who builds more affordable housing?’ Maybe you are too dumb to get this but there are lots of construction companies out there ready to go.
” Would that work in San Francisco or New York City where housing costs are high?”
I guess you did not know who is challenging Eric Adams? Someone named Brad Landers who was a boxing buddy of mine. Nice guy even if his boxing skills were just OK. I might even imagine it would take Brad all of 10 seconds to knock little Brucie out.
‘Whence the land to build that low cost housing (not much in San Fran)?’
OK – you really do not know where on a map California is. Lots of land outside of SF and they have a decent transportation system. Something called BART.
Come on Brucie – we’ve accepted that you are dumber than a retarded rock. So get back to your Swift Boating.
Well, you do bounce around a lot in a reply, but thanks for the effort.
First of all, the issue of “affordable housing” is primarily… nearly all… an urban issue in very specific locations. Detroit’s downtown/midtown are quite expensive now, but homes can be had starting at $50K in the remaining 120 sq.mi. of the city. Now just because you want to live around Nob Hill or in Manhattan doesn’t meat that someone has to make “affordable housing” available to you at the expense of someone else (a very Leninesque concept). But I admit that it sounds good to someone who expects the government to solve all of their problems.
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/harris-makes-a-big-mistake-by-embracing
So, that “lots of land outside of SF”… is that Marin County? Half Moon Bay? Pacifica? And are those entities supposed to ante up because someone wants to live there but can’t afford it?
But I hear you. You’d settle the issue with violence. Very Stalinesque.
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/harris-makes-a-big-mistake-by-embracing
I had some responses to you juvenile comment, but I’ll just stick with economics. BTW, quite familiar with SF. Eldest son’s family lives there. Perhaps you can explain to him why home prices are so high if there is so much land available for new low-cost housing. After all, wouldn’t the socialist SF government have acted on that already?
Bruce Hall
August 15, 2024 at 4:01 pm
You restate your stupid second paragraph. Come on dumba$$ – try writing something that makes sense – assuming you know how to.
BTW – read Chapter 4 of the Economic Report of the President. I provided a link to it as did Dr. Chinn. You might learn some economics for a change.
‘Harris makes a big mistake by embracing price controls’
This is Bruce Hall’s economics on housing. The food sector? Dumber than Trump’s drill baby drill.
Btw old stupid one – I have been addressing the food market issue and your Noah Smith is sort of out of his league. A paper on the oligopoly power in the food processing sector which neither you nor Noah have read. Read it AFTER you read the chapter on the HOUSING market from the Economic Report of the President.
Nor I have to admit you are not the only creature that ever confused housing and food. I used to have to endure a goat named Algebra who liked to chew on the cedar shakes of a house I once owned. But the goat was smarter than Bruce Hall because at least he know algebra. Brucie can’t do first grade arithmetic.
“the issue of “affordable housing” is primarily… nearly all… an urban issue in very specific locations.”
Now had you read any of the literature on this topic you would not write such a dumba$$ statement. Economic Report of the President: Chapter 4. Read it you lazy moron.
Damn – I just had to read your second paragraph. Did you get your degree in advanced retarded writing or what? So much stupid gibberish, so little time. And your links prove what – that you are a moron? We knew that a long time ago.
In other words, you have no response.
Bruce Hall
August 15, 2024 at 4:08 pm
In other words, you have no response.
Lord – you are desperate with that one. OK – you did not understand what I said as it was economics which is way over your pee brain.
BTW – I used to live on Nob Hill. I also lived in Manhattan. Neither city would even allow a flaming racist like you to be anywhere near where I lived.
Hey Brucie – I’m beginning to understand why all of your comments are so utterly stupid. After all your mentor Kelly Anne Conway’s attempts to attack Harris are like this:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kellyanne-conways-dig-at-kamala-harris-goes-left-after-she-fires-off-compliments/ar-AA1oOyaB?ocid=BingNewsSerp
“She’s so good-looking, she’s so smart, she’s so wealthy, she’s so funny, she’s close to her mom, she goes on really cool vacations, she’ll never break your heart”
Or was this another attempt at “alternative facts”? So yea – you are STOOOPID because your mentor is STUPID!
How was your date with AOC? See, it’s easy to be snarky and superficial.
trump has already said he will fire jerome, irregardless of what action he takes. i trust trump on that move only. and if jerome does not lower rates, harris will get rid of him. if he lowers rates and she wins, she may keep him. that is the only realistic scenario where he keeps his job for another term.
jerome already burned the bridge with trump when he began raising rates a few years ago. trump is vengeful. a price will eventually be paid if given the opportunity.
Either the Fed gets those rates down quickly or the economy will recover in spite of them doing everything they can to stop it. It will become the emperors new clothes. The little boy from the market will yell: “the Fed can’t do shit one way or the other”. And everybody on Wall Street will suddenly realize that the Fed can’t do shit one way or another – the bazooka is a BB gun and we are all doomed next time something goes wrong.
Related, worthy of a perusal. Maybe even Jerome “I LOVE MAGA whenever it gives me job security” Powell might want to read it.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4874654
Things get disarranged in my mind when wandering web sites, so I can’t remember if I already put this up, but thought this no doubt relates to inflation things. The post is 3 weeks old but still I thought well-written and still pertinent.
https://blogs.wellesley.edu/jjoyce/2024/07/22/tariffs-and-trade/
Go Lina!
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/08/14/ftc-bans-fake-reviews-social-media-influence-markers.html
Fake social media reviews banned, fines up to $50,000 per violation.
Hipsters 1, Influencers 0.
Here’s a good example of “big government” doing good things for people. Which it does more than it gets credit for. Lina Khan is a good example of a great public servant. The ideal/best kind of public servant, in Alice Rivlin’s echelon.
@ Macroduck Thanks for the mood-uplifter.
I was thinking of you, buddie. I know you admire her, too.