A great day for their families. Biden once again gets the job done!
Macroduck
Why did Putin take this away from Trump? Trump had said he’d clear this right up. Israel’s war on Palestine, too, for that matter, and Netanyahu seems to be heading toward getting locked into regional war.
Could Putin be watching PredictIt? Is this Putin hedging his bets?
pgl
The Germans told Putin that they would give him back their prisoner under Biden but not under Trump.
joseph
Reporter to Biden: “Trump has said repeatedly that he could have gotten the hostages out without giving anything in exchange. What do you say to that? What do you say to former President Trump.”
Biden: “Why didn’t he do it when he was president?”
Biden seems pretty cognitively sharp to me.
Anonymous
Putin gets Krasikov back to do more “work”.
pgl
Why do you put work in quotes. He is a rea journalist. You sir are a disgusting piece of trash.
pgl
Gee – too many names too little time. Krasikov is a murdered. Only you could call that “work”.
Anonymous
Long day, thanks for the chuckle!
You rarely disappoint!
Ivan
No wonder Trump is flipping out and making all these weird unforced errors. His goose is cooked and he feels the heat.
Macroduck
In response to the first “Flip” post, I suggested a new round of swing-state polling accounted for the sudden change in PredictIt pricing. From my reading of the news (and what do I know?), today’s continued PredictIt gains for Harris seem to grow out of the general flow of the news, rather than a single story.
Trump’s disastrous behavior in front of Black journalists means not only that his quest for black votes is doomed, but also that questions about his PR skills are mounting.
Yet another national poll shows Harris kicking Trump’s backside:
Trymp’s carefully constructed “winner” image was already eroding. Recent polling, press coverage, convictions for numerous crimes, Trump Media’s crumbling share value, the public ridicule of Trump’s “mini-me” VP choice and Trump’s inability to control his own behavior all work to plant a big “L” on Donald’s forehead.
Trump’s public approval numbers improved pretty quickly after the Biden/Trump debate, to well above his historic average. If the recent improvement is mostly “I approve of Trump, relative to the alternative” rather than whole-hearted approval, the arrival of a new alternative could mean his accustomed terrible public support numbers will return.
Anybody aware of empirical work suggesting an autoregressive element to voter preference?
pgl
Me thinks Harris should run a 50 state campaign. If she got the same number of Electoral College votes that Reagan got in 1980 – Trump’s position in the GOP would be reduced to dog catcher.
Ithaqua
Yes, there is. IIRC, and I believe I do because it’s not hard to remember, an event that causes opinions to shift in Presidential elections has its effect die out at a rate slightly higher than 50% per month, like maybe 55% per month. However, that number doesn’t consider the length of the news cycle focusing on the event.
We’re at a point where things like Trump’s disastrous behavior yesterday won’t make *much* difference come election time, but they will make some… and he doesn’t have much time to stop doing things like that before it will really hurt. One or two more blowups like this and the cumulative effect will be substantial. J.D. Vance also appears to be a gift likely to keep on giving.
Macroduck
Gracias. That’s ice-cream-on-the-sidewalk fast.
Ithaqua
… also, that’s people who respond to pollsters, not adjusted to represent likely or registered voters.
joseph
Has any journalist asked Trump if he is a chameleon who pretended to be white but only recently turned orange?
According to JD Vance it’s a fair question.
pgl
Vance’s kids are telling their school mates they are Indian not white because they are do not want to be associated with daddy.
I predicted this just after watching Trump insult the NABJ. It seems Trump Media share prices are falling too:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/
Evan Gershkovich, others freed by Russia in landmark prisoner swap
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/01/russia-us-prisoner-swap/
A great day for their families. Biden once again gets the job done!
Why did Putin take this away from Trump? Trump had said he’d clear this right up. Israel’s war on Palestine, too, for that matter, and Netanyahu seems to be heading toward getting locked into regional war.
Could Putin be watching PredictIt? Is this Putin hedging his bets?
The Germans told Putin that they would give him back their prisoner under Biden but not under Trump.
Reporter to Biden: “Trump has said repeatedly that he could have gotten the hostages out without giving anything in exchange. What do you say to that? What do you say to former President Trump.”
Biden: “Why didn’t he do it when he was president?”
Biden seems pretty cognitively sharp to me.
Putin gets Krasikov back to do more “work”.
Why do you put work in quotes. He is a rea journalist. You sir are a disgusting piece of trash.
Gee – too many names too little time. Krasikov is a murdered. Only you could call that “work”.
Long day, thanks for the chuckle!
You rarely disappoint!
No wonder Trump is flipping out and making all these weird unforced errors. His goose is cooked and he feels the heat.
In response to the first “Flip” post, I suggested a new round of swing-state polling accounted for the sudden change in PredictIt pricing. From my reading of the news (and what do I know?), today’s continued PredictIt gains for Harris seem to grow out of the general flow of the news, rather than a single story.
Trump’s disastrous behavior in front of Black journalists means not only that his quest for black votes is doomed, but also that questions about his PR skills are mounting.
Yet another national poll shows Harris kicking Trump’s backside:
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-leger-poll-1932951
Trymp’s carefully constructed “winner” image was already eroding. Recent polling, press coverage, convictions for numerous crimes, Trump Media’s crumbling share value, the public ridicule of Trump’s “mini-me” VP choice and Trump’s inability to control his own behavior all work to plant a big “L” on Donald’s forehead.
Trump’s public approval numbers improved pretty quickly after the Biden/Trump debate, to well above his historic average. If the recent improvement is mostly “I approve of Trump, relative to the alternative” rather than whole-hearted approval, the arrival of a new alternative could mean his accustomed terrible public support numbers will return.
Anybody aware of empirical work suggesting an autoregressive element to voter preference?
Me thinks Harris should run a 50 state campaign. If she got the same number of Electoral College votes that Reagan got in 1980 – Trump’s position in the GOP would be reduced to dog catcher.
Yes, there is. IIRC, and I believe I do because it’s not hard to remember, an event that causes opinions to shift in Presidential elections has its effect die out at a rate slightly higher than 50% per month, like maybe 55% per month. However, that number doesn’t consider the length of the news cycle focusing on the event.
We’re at a point where things like Trump’s disastrous behavior yesterday won’t make *much* difference come election time, but they will make some… and he doesn’t have much time to stop doing things like that before it will really hurt. One or two more blowups like this and the cumulative effect will be substantial. J.D. Vance also appears to be a gift likely to keep on giving.
Gracias. That’s ice-cream-on-the-sidewalk fast.
… also, that’s people who respond to pollsters, not adjusted to represent likely or registered voters.
Has any journalist asked Trump if he is a chameleon who pretended to be white but only recently turned orange?
According to JD Vance it’s a fair question.
Vance’s kids are telling their school mates they are Indian not white because they are do not want to be associated with daddy.