Who Is in the Recession Camp Now? [Updated]

It’s not a big one, but here’s an incomplete list:

Two Quarters Negative Growth (not the same as a recession) in July WSJ survey:

  • Andrew Hollenhorst/Veronica Clark (Citigroup)
  • Nicholas Van Ness (Credit Agricole CIB)

Rundown on recession indicators as of three days ago. GDPNow for Q3 as of today is at 2.0% SAAR; NY Fed at 1.84%.

Some of these people believe we’re in a recession now (Di Martino Booth, EJ Antoni). St. Onge believes we’ve been in a recession for the past three years.

54 thoughts on “Who Is in the Recession Camp Now? [Updated]”

  1. pgl

    So do any of these folks have a Nobel Prize in economics? Or a publication in the AER or the JPE? If not – who cares what they say?

  2. Macroduck

    Rosenberg: honest, professional, routinely pessimistic.

    Drew Matus: honest, professional, called a recession for 2021.

    Stephanie Pomboy: She says things like “People view the likelihood that inflation will outstrip their income as higher today than they did when the unemployment rate was 10% at the depths of the global financial crisis.” Nuff said.

    Nancy Lazar: ‘”We’ve been expecting a recession to unfold,” Lazar added, acknowledging that Piper Sandler had previously forecasted a recession as early as the end of 2023.’ Honest and professional.

    Mike Sherlock: Ideological and undisciplined. Knows the mechanics of the bond market, thinks he knows a lot more.

    Zero Hedge: Sheesh!

    Peter Berezin: Honest and professional. Argued against a recession in 2022, for disinflation in 2023. On a roll, though he seems to have expected a recession earlier this year.

      1. Macroduck

        Right? The guy sounds like Kopits, without the pretense of sophistication. Bond guys tend to adopt a tough-guy personna, but otherwise, Mish and Stevie are peas in a pod.

        1. baffling

          ah, mish. have not read him in years. but I found him entertaining quite a while back, and not entertaining in a good way. just fun to laugh at, because he really was an idiot. he wants to be taken seriously, but you simply cannot take such a dud seriously. I put him in a similar category to Peter Schiff. both of them are con men, talking their book.

        2. Steven Kopits

          Indeed he does. Mish’s analysis is straight-forward numbers. Ordinarily, I’d be in his camp.

          However, it is not only trends, but levels, which matter.

          If you looked at job openings, you would think there is some terrible crisis, as job openings have been falling rapidly, and this is often associated with recession. For example, job openings fell by about 2 million from mid-2007 to mid-2009, and that was a depression by my standards.

          Meanwhile, job openings have fallen by almost 3 million in the last two years. So why no recession? Because the absolute number of job openings remains near historical highs, around 8 million. The normal level of job openings in an expansion per JOLTS is the 5-6 million range. So we can say both that the job market is collapsing at a critical rate and that job openings remain historically high by the standards of any normal expansion.

          If I were to forecast using JOLTS, I’d say we’re 12-24 months from a recession, although the economy has been and will continue to reset going forward. That is, we can expect job openings to continue to collapse but also remain at or above levels associated with economic expansions for the next 12-24 months.

          Once again, suppression v recession. Different dynamics.

          https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFN4OWaX2pgxdVrFTPJlpfQOx-sPjr9zVgg0jCF00nNRznW7gDmjfsbtORU9JyMYBMNSV9f5DNTwCLs5eIR4J3i81DZymTDpuqQF_QYoqj0ehcGyOMJPNJYfNLM_hBI1VpLQNUMVvxPsohyphenhyphenDypsPZbiYJABOarb609bAWOo5cBX4qtU6avALb0/s1125/JOLTSJune2024.PNG

          1. pgl

            You started off sensibly for the first time in your pathetic little life but your argument contradicts all sorts of BS you have inflicted this comment section in the past. Alas you had to ruin it all with

            “Once again, suppression v recession. Different dynamics.”

            Once again little Stevie makes up a stupid term that has no meaning pretending it is the bee’s knees! Pathetic.

          2. Macroduck

            “Mish’s analysis is straight-forward numbers.”

            “If I were to forecast using JOLTS,…”

            Go ahead, forecast using JOLTS. Show your work with “straightforward numbers”. Love to see it.

          3. Moses Herzog

            It may be because I got a “tall boy” can of Margarita I’m working on, and a full bottle of wine waiting, But I’m choosing to focus on the humorous side of Kopits’ comment here. (in my best British snob accent) Good show……. Very good show

          4. Steven Kopits

            Where did that huge spike in openings come from in 2021/2022 if covid was just another recession? Can you point to any other recession in the historical record which produced such a spike in job openings in its wake? Or was the covid recession different? If it was different, does it deserve a different name and different treatment from a theoretical or policy perspective?

          5. pgl

            ‘Steven Kopits
            August 19, 2024 at 11:59 am
            Where did that huge spike in openings come from in 2021/2022 if covid was just another recession?’

            Excuse me little Stevie – NO ONE said this was just another recession. What we said is your “suppression” is a stupid made up term.

            Hey Stevie – do you even have the slightest clue why no one takes you seriously? Seriously dude – get a grip.

  3. Macroduck

    “I propose a debate for the entire month of September. We eat and sleep at the rostrum. No potty breaks.”

    I suspect Trump is trying to get Harris to turn down a debate. Also, asking for debates is usually what the candidate who’s losing does to try to turn things around, so Trump’s wall-to-wall debate proposal looks a little desperate.

    1. Ivan

      Exactly. They have desperately been trying to find something to stop the momentum of the Harris campaign – so far no luck. Putting Trump on the stage against Harris in the ABC setting (as originally planned for Biden), indicate that they are in a weak position. They way overplayed their hand, with demands of changing to Fox, then changing the setting and format, then just had to give in and go with the original deal and format. Harris has little incentive to agree to anything more until after the Sept 10’th debate.

      1. baffling

        trump, the great negotiator, simply negotiated with himself. AND LOST! first it was debate on sept 4 or not at all. then it was 3 debates. then debates all month. and finally? back to one debate on ABC under the original terms. a master class in looking like a fool. if I were Harris, I would agree to nothing until after the sept 10 debate as well. let him sit and stew. he needs and wants a debate far more than Harris does. Harris simply needs to show up on the 10th, with or without trump.
        besides, not really interested in watching trump stalk another woman on stage. he is just weird. and creepy.

        1. pgl

          “not really interested in watching trump stalk another woman on stage.”

          Had Hillary turned 180 and stared down Trump with “are you trying to rape me” she would have won the 2016 election. But no – she chickened out.

  5. pgl

    “To give a flavor, the official inflation rate since Covid has been around 21%. But fast food menu prices – a go-to indicator for Foreign exchange investors – are up between 35% and 50%.”

    The first thing I noticed at ZeroHedge. I’m sorry but this is Bruce Hall level of STUPID.

  6. pgl

    Wait – ZeroHedge just got Maria Bimbo of Faux News level of stupid.

    This is because official growth numbers are discounted by inflation. If growth was 3% but inflation was 2%, we grew. If inflation was actually 4%, we shrank. That means that if inflation was actually worse than 35% — if, say, it was the 50% that grocery receipts say — that would put us near Depression levels with a 13% drop in real GDP since pre-Covid.

    This moron is subtracting the change in the price level from the change in real GDP to get the change in real GDP. Lord – why does anyone bother to read blogs written by someone this incredibly dumb?

    1. Macroduck

      The tiny, skinny party platform at the convention was meant to free Trump from any actual policies. Repudiating the ‘2025’ document, delaying publication of the Heritage Foundation president’s book, are aimed at sliding away from policy, toward personality. Run toward the fringes in the primary, toward the center in the general? Doesn’t allow policy talk when your primary voters are unhinged and the marginal voter is uninformed – you can’t go around informing people. The gulf is too wide to bridge. So policy isn’t made specific, but it’s “going to be so good, you won’t have to vote anymore”.

      1. pgl

        He didn’t. Which is what scares women – leaving in charge of their bodies during pregnancy old male politicians who haven’t a clue.

        1. baffling

          trump is more incoherent by the day. really, his family should simply take him away from this campaign. every day they leave him there, is another million or two of inheritance pissed away. there will be nothing left by November. trump is showing his age very aggressively these days.

  8. New Deal democrat

    David Rosenberg is something of a perm Abe ar on the economy. But he is an excellent stock market analyst.

    Also, I wanted to leave this here, hoping it will get a little more notice: it turns out that Hurricane Beryl is responsible for much of the increase in initial and continuing claims in the last month. In July 2023, initial claims in Texas, not seasonally adjusted, averaged about 16,000. This year, beginning with the week of July 13, they spiked as high as 32,000 during the week of July 20. The next week they fell to just over 25,000, and this week [not yet updated on the FRED graph] they declined again to a little over 20,000.

    When we take the YoY increase in Texas out of the total, NSA initial claims were about 207,600 during the week of July 27, and 199,000 this week. The seasonal adjustment for both weeks is roughly +15%. When we then apply that seasonal adjustment, we get 240,000 initial claims last week, and 228,000 this week.

    In other words, initial claims and their 4 week average are both lower YoY ex-Texas. That’s not even close to recessionary.

    1. baffling

      there is more than beryl. texas, and the huge population center of Houston, has suffered several rounds of weather related challenges since may. this has resulted in millions of homes being without power for weeks (notice that is plural, and not simply days). there is no doubt in my mind that the Houston weather and resulting power issues have had a rather outsized impact on measured economic activity over the past couple of months.
      I know weather happens all over the country. but this year, it occurred in a very populated area, and repeatedly. repeated weeks long power outages will definitely have outsized negative economic impacts. many businesses were closed for an extended period of time. this was a very good point you made.

  9. pgl

    Hovde and Antoni should not even count.
    Someone ask Hassett (who is a right wing troll these days) about DOW 36000.
    And could someone inform Steve Hanke that velocity is not a constant.

  10. Macroduck

    Off topic – Pundits so far see the House majority as too close to call:

    https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election-predictions/

    I thought it might be fun to look at how well the popular vote in House elections aligns with seats in the House. Ballotpedia makes the data available, so why not?

    https://ballotpedia.org/Proportion_of_each_party%27s_national_U.S._House_vote_and_share_of_seats_won_in_U.S._House_of_Representatives_elections

    One thing to note is that the vote share going to parties other than Republican and Democrats has been trending downward in recent decades, which I take to mean that longer-ago election results aren’t as informative as more recent ones. This is my excuse for only looking at the last few elections.

    Among the last four House elections, Democrats’ share of House seats differed from their share of the two-party popular vote by more than 1 ppt only once, in 2016. That year, Democrats won 4.5 ppts more seats than their share of the two-party popular vote. That was a presidential election year, same as now. For Republicans, 2016 produced a 4.9 ppt gap. Also an election year.

    Maybe presidential years are different? It seems so. The gap between two-party popular vote margins and seats in the House has typically been larger in recent presidential elections than in off-year elections by quite a bit. Obama gave Democrats advantages of 3.6 ppts and 4.5 ppts. Trump gave Republicans a 4.9 ppt advantage. Biden is the outlier, having produced a disadvantage of.0.7%.

    What does this get us? Over at 538, recent polls of voters’ “generic ballot” preference show a 1.1 ppt advantage for Democrats, too narrow a margin to tell us much, just as the pundits suggest. Looks like it’s down to coattails. If Harris wins, odds are good she’ll bring the Democrats a House majority even if she suffers a Biden-sized deficit. A Trump win would mean a Republican House.

    One more thing – it is either Ivan or baffling (apologies, guys) who has pointed out how unlikely accurate polling is at current low response rates, so grain of salt here.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Prepare for the “broken record”~~~My feeling about “538” and the lot of them is they are not catching the rural vote. That bends to the orange abomination.

        1. Moses Herzog

          I get pretty melancholy when I get to the bottom of the bottle, last dregs of the adult drinks makes me pretty dark. I apologize, Didn’t intend to take you down here with me, I think Harris still has 50/50 chance, but what I typed via rural still holds.

        1. Baffling

          Thanks, but seconds would probably be a more accurate measure.
          So who is voting for the morally corrupt convicted felon here?

  11. pgl

    George Conway should have a field day with this melt down!

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sunday-meltdown-trump-floods-truth-social-with-photos-of-swifties-and-communists/ar-AA1p19A0?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=fbc438917c28440aad702f80d3fe9ce9&ei=30

    Donald Trump is bigly mad, and he’s not hiding it.

    A day before the Democratic National Convention, with Vice President Kamala Harris swinging through one of the key battleground states where she recently turned the polling tables on him, Trump embarked on a Truth Social posting spree.

    The former president posted or reposted his own content more than 25 times to his Truth Social account on Sunday, flooding his followers’ feeds with deranged rants, false claims, and A.I.-generated images of Taylor Swift fans backing his campaign.

    “I accept!” he wrote above the screenshots of the fake Swifties, apparently in reference to their bogus support.

    The images were originally posted to X on Friday and Saturday by a pair of popular right-wing accounts, one of which mixed the artificially generated images with real photographs of a blonde woman wearing a “Swifties for Trump” shirt at a rally. (The phrase briefly trended on the platform on Friday night, but there is no evidence a larger such movement exists.)
    He also shared an image—generated by the same X account earlier this weekend—of a New York Post edition showing Harris speaking in front of a communist symbol. Over on X, where he recently began posting again after months of silence, he shared an A.I. image of Harris speaking before a crowd of communists at the Democratic convention, which doesn’t start until Monday. The image’s origin was unclear.

    1. Ivan

      Sharing images from the DNC which doesn’t start until Monday. So either he is not aware of the DNC not having started yet or he doesn’t care that he posts obviously fake photos. That is indeed a major meltdown. Has he had a stroke or is this just advanced dementia?

  12. joseph

    I realize that many people think Kevin Hassett is funny because of his silly DOW 36,000 book, but it was no joke when Hassett used his cubic fit model to project zero pandemic deaths by the end of May 2020. This analysis was used by the White House and state officials as justification to abandon all health safety measures and restrictions just as the pandemic was really getting started.

    Over a million Americans died after that date and one can argue exactly how many can be directly attributed to Hassett, but the number is most definitely not zero.

    I don’t find Hassett funny at all. I consider him a dangerous sociopath who served his dear leader loyally and got a lot of people killed.

    1. pgl

      DOW 36000 was not silly. It was moronic. Hassett since then has turned into Kudlow light. Not a good look.

  13. pgl

    I was not happy with Kevin Drum over his past lazy discussion of what Harris wants to do about food prices. It seems he has gotten a wee bit more serious of late:

    Harris’s price gouging proposal looks pretty modest
    https://jabberwocking.com/harriss-price-gouging-proposal-looks-pretty-modest/

    ‘Extreme consolidation in the food industry has led to higher prices that account for a large part of higher grocery bills. To confront this issue, Vice President Harris will also direct her administration to crack down on unfair mergers and acquisitions that give big food corporations the power to jack up food and grocery prices and undermine the competition that allows all businesses to thrive while keeping prices low for consumers. And her plan will support smaller businesses, like grocery stores, meat processors, farmers, and ranchers, so those industries can become more competitive.’

    OK! Now if the stupid press and certain lazy economists would pay attention we might have a substantive policy discussion. Now as far as the MAGA morons like Bruce Hall – I’ve given up hope a long time ago.

      1. pgl

        Senator Hawley demands answers from Tyson, supports class action lawsuit
        https://www.kfvs12.com/2024/07/10/senator-hawley-demands-answers-tyson-supports-class-action-lawsuit/

        Oh my – since Bruce Hall has decided to support the Meat Institute’s dishonest campaign to spin the BS that the food processing sector is perfectly competitive, the fact that one of Trump supporters in the Senate had wakened up to this problem is going to drive little Brucie insane! Oh wait – Brucie was born insane!

  14. pgl

    Reforming Permitting Requirements to Lower the Cost of Building New Housing and Increase Housing Affordability
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/08/13/reforming-permitting-requirements-to-lower-the-cost-of-building-new-housing-and-increase-housing-affordability/

    An interesting push from the Biden Administration to lower the cost of housing. Yea I get the MAGA morons like Bruce Hall mocked Kamala Harris for endorsing this but we all know little Brucie never read Chapter 4 of the 2024 Economic Report of the President.

  15. pgl

    Critics of the Harris proposal to lower prices on the meat we consume pretend that the food processing sector is highly competitive. It turns out that the 20-F filing for JBS SA says the same thing. Funny thing, JBS settled this anti-trust litigation:

    https://www.beefcommercialcase.com/

    A Settlement has been reached in a class action antitrust lawsuit filed on behalf of Commercial and Institutional Indirect Purchaser Plaintiffs with Defendants JBS USA Food Company, Swift Beef Company, JBS Packerland, Inc. and JBS S.A., and all their predecessors; successors; assigns; affiliates; and any and all past, present, and future parents, owners, subsidiaries, divisions, and departments (collectively “JBS” or “Settling Defendants”). This Settlement only applies to JBS and does not dismiss claims against other Defendants in the case entitled In re Cattle and Beef Antitrust Litigation (Commercial and Institutional Indirect Purchaser Plaintiff Action), Case No. 22-md-3031 (JRT/JFD) (D. Minn.). If approved by the Court, the Settlement will resolve a lawsuit over whether JBS participated in a conspiracy – with other Defendants in this litigation and unnamed co-conspirators – from at least January 1, 2015, through May 25, 2023, to limit the supply, and fix the prices, of Beef sold to members of the Settlement Class (as defined in the Settlement Agreement) in the United States in violation of federal and state laws. If approved, the Settlement will avoid litigation costs and risks to Commercial and Institutional Indirect Purchaser Plaintiffs and JBS and will release JBS from liability to members of the Settlement Class. The Settlement requires JBS to pay $25,000,000.

    Can we stop pretending that the food sector is perfectly competitive? It is not. Harris gets it. Trump does not.

  16. pgl

    File this under James Comer is a moron!

    “Don’t make these people martyrs”: Harris-Walz probes ignite House GOP divisions
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/don-t-make-these-people-martyrs-harris-walz-probes-ignite-house-gop-divisions/ar-AA1p2uJj?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=22f497bd05374a32a38273f094599048&ei=17

    Some House GOP lawmakers fear their party’s new investigations into Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Tim Walz could potentially backfire politically. Why it matters: House Republicans have unleashed a barrage of investigations targeting Harris and Walz in the run-up to the Democratic convention.

    One House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity to critique their party’s investigations, said the probes are “unnecessary.”
    “We have an election to win. Don’t make these people martyrs,” the lawmaker told Axios.
    Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) argued that investigating Harris and Walz is “fair” but that investigators need to be sure to “handle it professionally.”

  17. pgl

    Poor little Stephen Moore just got sandbagged on the Squawk Box of all places. Moore was going on and on claiming price controls on food would destroy the food sector because after all Moore never heard of oligopoly power.

    I guess Moore realizes that Lindsey Owens of Groundwork Collaborative as a Ph.D. in economics who does the understand role of firm pricing power and corporate profiteering in price increases. Moore kept trying to monopolize the interview by talking over the moderator but the moderately thankfully cut off his ability to speak. And in less than 60 seconds Dr. Owens made Moore look like the fool he really is!

  18. Moses Herzog

    Just found out Phil Donahue died. Very sad to hear it. Phil kept me company when I was a “latch key kid”, (what else was I gonna do, watch afternoon soap operas??). Watch the Davd Letterman interview. Nice one.

    1. pgl

      88 years young.

      “There wouldn’t have been an Oprah Show without Phil Donahue being the first to prove that daytime talk and women watching should be taken seriously,” Winfrey wrote on Instagram, sharing a photo of the two together. “He was a pioneer. I’m glad I got to thank him for it. Rest in peace Phil.”

  20. Macroduck

    I offer a diversion from U.S. politics. The World Bank’s 2024 Development Report is out:

    https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2024

    This Report highlights the widespread failure of middle-income countries to make the leap to high income status. Putting aside the number of times the “middle-income trap” has been studied over the decades, I’m not convinced high income is a reasonable goal, in a time of climate change. Investing toward higher income per capita is likely to divert resources away from sustainability.

    The World Bank has a plan – it always has a plan – involving three stages. From lower to higher middle income economies, the stages are:

    – Investment
    – Investment and technology transfer
    – Investment, transfer and domestic innovation

    Technology transfer is re-labeled “infusion” so the plan can be called “3i”; nothing speeds development like a catchy monicker.

    The report points out that middle income countries generate 40% of world GDP while releasing 60% of CO2 emissions. It seems likely to me that investment in most sectors will mean an absolute increase in CO2 emissions, and quite probably an increase in CO2 intensity of production, at least in the first and second stages. On the way to 2050? Oopsie!

    The Bank’s scheme also involves increased political freedom at a time when middle-income “democratic backsliding” is common. Heck, it’s common enough that political scientists are rooting around in analysis of middle-income backsliding for clues to Trump’s rise.

    The report is actually a worthwhile read for anyone interested in how middle-income countries are faring, what the issues are. But the framing seems to me a tired rehashing – “we have to write something, and this is something.”

    Now, back to U.S. politics.

  21. pgl

    https://jabberwocking.com/the-us-economy-is-running-way-above-potential/
    The US economy is running way above potential

    Kevin Drum figures out what readers of this blog have known how to do for a long time – plot real GDP against potential real GDP per the CBO measure. Good boy Kevin! But then you write this?

    “This really ought to be causing some head-scratching among economists. How is it that the Fed can sharply raise policy rates and yet the economy is running red hot two years later? It’s a mystery.”

    Oh gee Kevin – ever heard of strong fiscal policy? Or an outward shift of the IS curve? Maybe Kevin should stick to politics.

  23. pgl

    https://x.com/Evangels4Harris/status/1825355332543201450

    It is understood best after reading all of 1 John 4 (which is worth doing with or without our ad!).
    “Test the spirits to see if they are from God, for many false prophets have gone into the world…this is how we recognize the spirit of truth and the spirit of falsehood, let us love one another for love comes from God.
    There is no fear in love but perfect love drives out fear. We love because he first loved us. If anyone says, ‘I love God’ but hates his brother, he is a liar. Everyone who believes that Jesus is Lord and loves the Father must love his children as well.”

    Check out the BS from Trump following this Biblical verse. In other news, conservative Judge Michael Luttig has endorsed Harris.

  24. baffling

    as reported on cnn:
    Since then, Luttig has emerged as a preeminent constitutional critic of Trump. In endorsing Harris, Luttig argues that partisan distinctions must, in this election, be set aside in order to prevent the “singularly unfit” Trump from returning to the White House.

    “In voting for Vice President Harris, I assume that her public policy views are vastly different from my own,” Luttig writes, “but I am indifferent in this election as to her policy views on any issues other than America’s Democracy, the Constitution, and the Rule of Law, as I believe all Americans should be.”

    wow. conservative republicans call trump singularly unfit. rick stryker is pulling for a real winner in this contest. republican’s attacking trump with words and bullets this time around.

    1. pgl

      Luttig has become my favorite conservative. I may disagree with on several policy issues but the man has convictions and expresses them eloquently.

  25. Moses Herzog

    I drunk now, I feeI have the preface things this way, (please ignore this comment Macroduck, you the only/left person I’ not angry at now) Uhm, I almost forgot waht I was gonna say. OK. just remembered just now. I was teaching a ESL class in Dalian China. One of my students ask me a question about Marie Currie, and I didn’t immediately remember who she was. Than another one of my Chinese students learning “ESL” asked me if I knew who Einstein was, because I didn’t remember Marie Currie. Then I got INCREDIBLY angry. I kept a lid on my anger, because I felt I shouldn’t take it against them. But I got very very very very angry. That’s the end of my story. I loved all my students in China.

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