From Bloomberg Economics:
I’m not sure if the calculations include the expansionary effects of spendings billions of dollars on a the infrastructure (i.e., “System der Konzentrationslager”) necessary to implement the mass deportation.
The figure associated with deportation of undocumented immigrants is likely to be too small in absolute value, as Mr. Trump has noted that documented immigrants would also be deported.
Ah but Oren Cass would tell us getting rid of 20 million workers would raise real wages for those people who fill the “black jobs”.
The latest from the Trump campaign. The golden age of America was under President McKinley. Seriously – he said that! EJ Antoni is working on the underlying historical data!
“Donald Trump has spent months vowing “large deportations” in a second term, but on Friday, he suggested legal immigrants might face deportation, too.”
And Bruce Hall will tell us that Trump is being honest about this. Yea MAGA morons will believe anything.
Off topic – voting against your won interests:
The WSJ has an article which looks at federal transfers to households by state, which I can’t get at because of firewall stuff. The upshot is that citizens in states which typically vote Republican are more dependent on federal income support than citizens in Democratic-leaning states. This isn’t a new finding, but new data present the possibility of new facts, so I’m interested.
So I went looking for the same data elsewhere. No luck. If anyone can point me at a source, or tell me where the WSJ got its data, I’d appreciate it.
Meanwhile, I was able to find a few sources on federal support for state budgets. Here’s the proportion of federal funding to the overall budget in 2021:
Top 5
Montana 31.8% (R)
New Mexico 30.7% (D-ish)
Kentucky 30.1% (R)
Louisiana 29.8% (R)
Alaska 29.0% (R)
Bottom 5
Vermont 12.8% (D)
California 14.5% of (D)
Minnesota 14.6% (D-ish)
South Dakota 15.0% (R)
Iowa 15.5% (R)
https://usafacts.org/articles/which-states-rely-the-most-on-federal-aid/
Anyone else remember “Keep the government’s hands off my Medicare” from back in the Tea Party days? We really do need better civics education. Not civics-as-right-wing-propaganda, but actual civics education.
“Not civics-as-right-wing-propaganda, but actual civics education.”
there is a reason the Republican Party starves education funding and embraces non-scholarly teachings in the classroom. that is not an accident. an educated population does not fall for the tricks.
538 has just updated its presidential election odds whatchamathingie:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
The whatchamathingie now gives Harris a 57% chance of winning, vs 43% for the Trumpster Fire. Those estimates add to 100% because the thingie puts the odds of an electoral college tie at less than 1%.
A week ago, odds were 55% Harris, 45% Trump, which 538 observes was the narrowest split in nearly 150 years.
The explanatory text hasn’t been updated yet for today’s estimates, so I can’t tell you what caused the shift.
Speaking of election forecasting, “The Hill” carries a piece today in which pollsters warn against assuming Trump will outperform his pre-election poll numbers. They say, essentially, “there’s no telling how we’ll screw up this time.” I take comfort in that. I hope Moses does, too.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4904402-trump-polls-accuracy-questioned/
Food for thought. At moments like these I always think of the cartoon where Lucy yanks the football away from Charlie Brown as he attempts to kick it. The Walz debate should be fun. 85% I’ll be watching it. Sadly I won’t be playing any drinking games, but it should still be fun.
as I did with Biden, I will donate to Harris now that October is here. not taking any chances.
I have also been pessimistic about texas because of the chokehold republicans have made on voter access in the state, particularly in blue areas. and I still believe their efforts will suppress the vote enough to achieve their outcomes. however, I will also now donate to Colin Allred to defeat Ted Cruz ( you remember Cruz, the coward who headed to the Caribbean while his state froze a couple of years ago). there is a blue wave in texas, and not sure how much longer republicans can illegally hold it off. The AG is corrupt, so the barrier is high. but change is comings, now or next presidential election.
gee, if you get rid of lots of people in the labour force I wonder what will occur.
Trump is mad
There are already mass deportation. Like many people who don’t understand US immigration system, it is heavily decentralized. Since Biden was inaugurated, over 7 million people have been deported. It will be 8 million by early next year. Under Donad Trump illegal immigration surged and will surge again. Why people act ignorant and act stupid on how US immigration systems work is embarrassing, starting with useless media. Even Sanctuary cities are deporting. It’s in right now and Drumpf’s stuff is meaningless.
Self education has value peop!e.
It was good to see that Bloomberg article – finally some in corporate media are actually considering what a disaster a second Trump admin would be for our economy.
However on the same day Bloomberg posted an article claiming that Trump “slams” Harris on immigration and “sharpens his criticisms” of her policies. – I watched most of that speech in Prairie du Chien – he rambled semi-coherently about Harris letting in a criminal while she was AG of California (I guess) and then she arrested criminals but did not do her job as “Border Czar” (seriously – watch and see if you can decipher what he says) and then he spent most of the speech talking about the non-existent crowd of 50,000 outside, how his beach body is better than Biden’s, and then complaining about a fly on the podium and this proves in Trump’s mind that the country is falling apart – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-28/trump-slams-harris-on-border-in-bid-to-keep-edge-on-immigration
Meanwhile Trump rhetoric is becoming evermore dangerously unhinged – I think Vanity Fair was the only media outlet to get the headline right – “Donald Trump, Unhinged Sociopath, Says Police Should Violently Assault Americans for “One Rough Hour” to Stop Shoplifting” – https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/donald-trump-police-should-violently-assault-americans-for-one-hour
Every article about Trump should carry this Boilerplate text: “Donald Trump is an adjudicated rapist, convicted felon, and proven business fraudster and is currently awaiting trial in federal court for mishandling classified documents and at both federal and state courts for interfering in the 2020 election.”