From Bloomberg Economics:
I’m not sure if the calculations include the expansionary effects of spendings billions of dollars on a the infrastructure (i.e., “System der Konzentrationslager”) necessary to implement the mass deportation.
The figure associated with deportation of undocumented immigrants is likely to be too small in absolute value, as Mr. Trump has noted that documented immigrants would also be deported.
Ah but Oren Cass would tell us getting rid of 20 million workers would raise real wages for those people who fill the “black jobs”.
The latest from the Trump campaign. The golden age of America was under President McKinley. Seriously – he said that! EJ Antoni is working on the underlying historical data!
“Donald Trump has spent months vowing “large deportations” in a second term, but on Friday, he suggested legal immigrants might face deportation, too.”
And Bruce Hall will tell us that Trump is being honest about this. Yea MAGA morons will believe anything.
Off topic – voting against your won interests:
The WSJ has an article which looks at federal transfers to households by state, which I can’t get at because of firewall stuff. The upshot is that citizens in states which typically vote Republican are more dependent on federal income support than citizens in Democratic-leaning states. This isn’t a new finding, but new data present the possibility of new facts, so I’m interested.
So I went looking for the same data elsewhere. No luck. If anyone can point me at a source, or tell me where the WSJ got its data, I’d appreciate it.
Meanwhile, I was able to find a few sources on federal support for state budgets. Here’s the proportion of federal funding to the overall budget in 2021:
Top 5
Montana 31.8% (R)
New Mexico 30.7% (D-ish)
Kentucky 30.1% (R)
Louisiana 29.8% (R)
Alaska 29.0% (R)
Bottom 5
Vermont 12.8% (D)
California 14.5% of (D)
Minnesota 14.6% (D-ish)
South Dakota 15.0% (R)
Iowa 15.5% (R)
https://usafacts.org/articles/which-states-rely-the-most-on-federal-aid/
Anyone else remember “Keep the government’s hands off my Medicare” from back in the Tea Party days? We really do need better civics education. Not civics-as-right-wing-propaganda, but actual civics education.
538 has just updated its presidential election odds whatchamathingie:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
The whatchamathingie now gives Harris a 57% chance of winning, vs 43% for the Trumpster Fire. Those estimates add to 100% because the thingie puts the odds of an electoral college tie at less than 1%.
A week ago, odds were 55% Harris, 45% Trump, which 538 observes was the narrowest split in nearly 150 years.
The explanatory text hasn’t been updated yet for today’s estimates, so I can’t tell you what caused the shift.
Speaking of election forecasting, “The Hill” carries a piece today in which pollsters warn against assuming Trump will outperform his pre-election poll numbers. They say, essentially, “there’s no telling how we’ll screw up this time.” I take comfort in that. I hope Moses does, too.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4904402-trump-polls-accuracy-questioned/
Food for thought. At moments like these I always think of the cartoon where Lucy yanks the football away from Charlie Brown as he attempts to kick it. The Walz debate should be fun. 85% I’ll be watching it. Sadly I won’t be playing any drinking games, but it should still be fun.