CFNAI and state-level coincident indices suggest softening in activity.
Figure 1: CFNAI diffusion index (blue, left scale), and coincident index diffusion index for 3 month changes (tan, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Chicago Fed via FRED, and Philadelphia Fed, NBER.
Note that CFNAI diffusion index reading of -0.17 is above the -0.35 threshold for recession.
Off topic – Why do financial wizards wear robes? Maybe because their pants keep falling down. Whether it’s “chasing return” or “chasing deals”, you don’t want to hear that investment professionals are “chasing”:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/private-credit-faces-worst-reckoning-083919160.html
The good news is, private credit isn’t a source of widely-held collateral instruments – to my knowledge, anyway. Systemic risk is limited by that fact, if it is, in fact, a fact.
For private equity/credit funds, low borrowing costs encouraged investment with low returns, followed by rate hikes which narrowed (or up-ended) yield spreads, followed by rate cuts which drive down returns on cash. It is obviously possible to play every one of these from the right side, but that takes good market timing. “Chasing” does not imply good timing.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP#:~:text=Graph%20and%20download%20economic%20data%20for
All Employees, Manufacturing
A little fact checking on that interview by Stephanie “I worked for Deutsche Bank” Ruhle (yea I find her rather weird) and Kamala Harris. Harris was asked about tariffs and got around to how Trump was the “biggest loser” when it came to manufacturing jobs. Actually Bush43 was the biggest loser. Harris said something about losing 100 thousand manufacturing jobs under Trump which is true if one looks over the 1/2019 period to 2/2020 (pre-pandemic).
But I can hear the MAGA clowns saying what about 2017 and 2018? Well we were enjoying the fruits of the Obama recovery until Trump started his stupid trade war. Which of course occurred just before this decline in manufacturing employment.
Best memories of my life :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalian_Minzu_University
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalian_Minzu_University#/media/File:%E5%A4%A7%E8%BF%9E%E6%B0%91%E6%97%8F%E5%A4%A7%E5%AD%A6.jpg
Backside of my memory, library, was 3 stories,on your left. I taught classes, on the five story on your left Menzie. I’m an extremely shy person Menzie.They had on the 4th or 5th floor. (left large building) pissing in a long line of….. you know what I mean Menzie. I used to go in 4 hours early, See the “stadium on the far right?? Then next right (outside of the picture) was the foreign Languages Dept. (right side) Many many many memories,,
Behind the picture,,, behind us as we look at it. Where I lived. slept. 2003 I mean 10 feet behind the picture,, was the ntrance to the university. we took pig vaccines there Menzie, Pig vaccines, and bird flu and Covid……
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalian_Minzu_University#/media/File:%E5%A4%A7%E8%BF%9E%E6%B0%91%E6%97%8F%E5%A4%A7%E5%AD%A6.jpg
this just in. trump has promised to arm every single animal shelter with an AK47 and bazooka, to protect our pets from consumption by illegal aliens. this on top of his promise to assign a brand new abrahms tank to the front door of every single school in America, to protect our children. trump will take back America, one gun and lie at a time. make America bat sh!t crazy, again! mabsca!
Trump must think our nation is Gaza. Oh wait – if he gets in the White House again, we might as well be in Gaza.
China has announced a one-time cash transfer to the poor:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/26/china-offers-one-time-cash-allowance-for-those-in-extreme-poverty.html
The right idea, but doing it just once, announcing that it’s just once, undercuts the impact on the economy. The timing – 75th anniversary, blah, blah, blah – suggests a political stunt. No mention of amounts.
It’s basically the same approach as our “stimulus checks” where US government send everybody a check to counter a recession. Trump recalled the last ones to make sure they said his name on them (and there are idiots out there who think Trump send them money).
China seem a little more targeted by sending checks just to the poor and give as a “celebration check”, to avoid acknowledging a recession. They could be worse off than they dare to admit. I wonder if Xi. will put his name on the checks.
Here’s what I will say about it Ivan, as a person who has a deep love towards China (OK , maybe just one person/female make me feel deep love to China). Uhm….. At least they are trying……… . they deserve credit for that. Are they sending it to the right segment of society??? reading the headlines, YES, seems they are. They almost (too little too late??) seem to be doing it better than America is,
P.S. IF Xi can put his name on the checks, he will.
GDP growth in the G7
https://jabberwocking.com/raw-data-gdp-growth-in-the-g7/
“We’re the biggest country in the G7 by far and the fastest growing by far. That’s not a combination you see very often.” – Kevin Drum
His chart shows the increase in real per capita GDP which has risen by more than 20% since the end of Great Recession for the US. Impressive growth even if our MAGA moron Bruce Hall thinks we should have grown like his favorite “comparable” country (China).
A substantial part of that better U.S. performance comes from suffering the smallest output contraction from Covid, followed by the strongest recovery from Covid.
Remind me: How did the U.$. manage to do $o well during this $ad epi$ode? $eems to me $omething mu$t have $et u$ apart from the re$t.