NFP +142 vs. consensus +166. Employment has almost surely slowed (keeping in mind this is the preliminary release). What does this look like?
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), Bloomberg consensus assuming no revisions to previous months (light blue), NFP early benchmark (tan), QCEW total covered employment seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (red), civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept (green), all in logs, relative to 2023M03. Source: BLS, Bloomberg, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
With the previous months of revisions, the “miss” on consensus is 108K, not 24K. On the other hand, the CPS version of NFP employment (people, not jobs) was +178 (vs. +142K from CES). Given the high variability in the-CPS-based series, I wouldn’t take too much solace from this.
What about the impact of the preliminary benchmark? As I’ve noted before, this has a big — perhaps too big — impact on the level of measured employment.
Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment from August CES (blue), from July CES (light blue), Bloomberg consensus assuming no revisions to previous months (light blue), implied NFP preliminary benchmark (brown), civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, adjusted by author using ratio of CBO immigration level implied civilian employment (green), Goldman Sachs estimate of NFP final benchmarked employment (pink square), all in logs, relative to 2023M03. Source: BLS, Bloomberg, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
I have adjusted the BLS’s alternative NFP employment series by the ratio of my adjustment to civilian employment accounting for the higher employment estimated by CBO (see discussion here), except I have applied to June 2024 the adjustments (2024 is the fiscal year for reporting immigration), instead of to June 2023.
By these counts, employment is still growing on a year-to-year basis, even the CPS based series. Since the graphs are shown on log scales, then it’s clear that the series are decelerating in growth, as the Fed has aimed for.
World Has Hottest Summer Ever as Climate Extremes Increase
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/world-has-hottest-summer-ever-as-climate-extremes-increase/ar-AA1q59xi?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=ffc83c8619194a1085ff8163715348d9&ei=16
‘This summer was the hottest ever in the Northern Hemisphere, putting the Earth on track for another record-breaking year. The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that for June to August, global temperatures were 0.69C above historical averages, beating the previous high set last year. The record for the world’s highest average temperature was broken on a number of days over the summer.’
And no – this is not limited to urban centers like Los Angeles and any continued chirping liars like Bruce Hall should be mocked for the stupidity that he displays 24/7.
I’m sorry but JD Vance’s reaction to the shootings in Winder, Georgia are both repugnant and stupid:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/harris-slams-vance-for-calling-school-shooting-fact-of-life-and-picking-nra-over-lives/ar-AA1q5pEB?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=6770da95fb534640b1a15cd5c46e2eb3&ei=8
“The Kamala Harris answer is to take law-abiding citizens guns from them,” said Vance, who added: “Clearly strict gun laws isn’t the thing that will solve this problem.” “If these psychos are going to go after our kids we’ve got to be prepared for it. “We don’t have to like the reality that we live in, but it is the reality we live in. We’ve got to deal with it.” When asked what could be done to stop more school shootings, Vance said they happen in states with strict and lax gun laws. Claiming extra security is the answer, he continued: “I don’t like that this is a fact of life.
Could he get every aspect of his incident more wrong? Georgia has some of the weakest gun control laws in the nation. As far as stopping psychos before they come onto campus, the person who did this was a freshman at this high school. So he was already there like every other student.
And could someone on this moron’s staff tell mentally retarded JD that this school had a lot of security which did at least limit the damage to 4 dead and 9 wounded. These are the facts of life you heartless clown.
“The Kamala Harris answer is to take law-abiding citizens guns from them,” said Vance, who added: “Clearly strict gun laws isn’t the thing that will solve this problem.”
Huh. Well, both he and his dad were law-abiding citizens, and it seems to me that taking their gun(s) from them would have solved *this* problem.
Up is down in MAGA-world…
“strict gun laws isn’t the thing that will solve this problem”
Except that the rest of the world that has strict gun laws don’t have this problem. No guns no mass shootings.
Sure shootings happen in states with stricter gun laws, but not nearly as much.
Aggregate weekly hours up 0.3% m/m, payroll index up 0.8%:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1tukw
So labor’s input to production is growing nicely, and weekly paychecks rose at well above the pace of inflation.
I haven’t taken revisions to prior months’ data into account, because I’m lazy. If you adjust the linked picture to show levels, you’ll see a slower pace of rise, but still a rise, in recent months for both series.
Huh! Fake economist EJ Antoni had lots of charts on his Twitter claiming gloom and doom. Funny he forgot to include what you provided.